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[Awaclus]

It really is all about prestige and status. Even in fields that are ostensibly about something else like math, that something just matters because it's tied to status. If you prove P =/= NP and no one believes you, you have nothing. And although this counterfactual isn't really possible, if you had a false proof that everyone believed, you'd get all the fame.

I feel like I need to chime in on this. There is some truth here, but it is very hyperbolic (no pun intended) to put it like this.

First of all, probably the major proof of the 21st century so far, the proof of the Poincaré conjecture, came from Perelman, a relative outsider in mathematics. This was still acknowledged widely. There are also multple mathematical results by hobbyists that have been accepted, e.g. in plane tiling or even knot theory.

Also by anonymous 4chan posters in combinatorics.

[silverspawn]

My point was more philosophical (and maybe pedantic?), which is that even if the proof system works perfectly -- and I do think it's very good, which is why math is relatively healthy as a field -- it's still only indirectly important. It matters because it convinces people.

[silverspawn]

But yes, it is somewhat trivial. Mb that's why I didn't reply earlier?

[silverspawn]

So I watched the 2nd Republican Debate. Similar to the first time, everyone sucked except Christie and Hailey.

Pence was the worst, not that it matters. David Pakman said the biggest winner is Trump because nothing drastic happened, which may be true, but also I feel like this was the median outcome.

Haven't looked at markets yet, but I doubt much changed. Probably Ramaswamy and DeSantis dipped a little.

[silverspawn]

& yeah that seems basically right.

I think Nate Silver is right that the markets are systematically underestimating both Trump and Biden. If you believe them and assume odds are independent, then there's still just under a 50% chance that both of them win the nomination. I'd love to believe that, but I don't.

[silverspawn]

Ok I've dropped below 1700 somehow, which makes it the perfect time for another chess logging experiment.

I'll document the next 20 games and for each, just note the result and whether or not I made a stupid mistake that I think I should ~never make anymore.

[silverspawn]

1. M/L

[silverspawn]

2. M/W

(M is mistake.)

[silverspawn]

3. M/W

[silverspawn]

This may be speculative,  but hear me out. I think the fact that I make dumb mistakes every game may have something to do with why my rating dropped.

[silverspawn]

Anyway, back to 1700. 111111111111111111777777777777777777777777777777770000000000000000000000

[silverspawn]

4. M/W

[silverspawn]

5. M/L

[silverspawn]

6. M/W

[silverspawn]

7. ◯/W

... but it's doubtful whether this even counts because I basically just blitzed out theory moves until my opponent blundered mate in 1. Still had 9:20 of 10 minutes.

[silverspawn]

8. M/L

[silverspawn]

9. M/L

I did not expect these games to go like this gotta say

[silverspawn]

10. M/W :-

[silverspawn]

11. ◯/W

guys I actually played a good game against a strong opponent. so much woah

[silverspawn]

12. M/L

[silverspawn]

13. M/L

[silverspawn]

14. M/L

[silverspawn]

15. ◯/W

[silverspawn]

16. M/L

[silverspawn]

17. ◯/L