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[LaLight]

although it is hard to believe that we would be needed for something now. Then again, some things that are hard to believe already happened

[silverspawn]

I don't actually have a particularly high opinion of Isusr, but I still trust him more than any other source I know who makes similarly bold statements

Relevant quote:

If you live in Russia you should consider getting out ASAP. Borders are open until suddenly they aren't. You don't want to be trapped behind the next Iron Curtain.

[LaLight]

I have left the country. Looking for an accomodation and a job, but people are surprisingly sympathetic and helpful. Should be fine soon.

[LaLight]

it was actually very stressful. I was interviewed hard and in the end I was almost sure they will turn me around. But I giess the fact that I am almost thirty helped me, because there's thousands of rumours of 18-21 yolds being called or taken forcefully

[silverspawn]

damn

[Awaclus]

I don't actually have a particularly high opinion of Isusr, but I still trust him more than any other source I know who makes similarly bold statements

Relevant quote:

If you live in Russia you should consider getting out ASAP. Borders are open until suddenly they aren't. You don't want to be trapped behind the next Iron Curtain.

I thought Russia would win an easy victory. Western military analysts thought Russia would win an easy victory.

But why? They knew Russia only had 200k troops ready to attack Ukraine, they knew Ukraine had more and a 3x advantage due to being the defender. What on earth did they believe was true that turned out not to be true that skewed their estimations by this much given the base stats?

[silverspawn]

shrugs

[silverspawn]

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10080/russian-border-closure-by-april-2022/

[silverspawn]

I get annoyed just considering the possibility of someone opening Throne Room/Feast. These people who just take extreme risks in dominion

[silverspawn]

So I'm not saying that I have the greatest hud of all time but

... well actually that's not true, I am saying that I have the best hud of all time.



I mean look at all of this information. And the pretty colors! And the stats! And I actually use most of them, too!

See that light green number (85) and that medium green number (86)? Just added the former, and these are way too close together. I can abuse this from now on.

[silverspawn]

Also I can't believe that player only continuation bets 14% of the time, that is an insane stat.

[silverspawn]

my stats:

[silverspawn]

I really do need to have a solid winning record, say 100$+, at these pokerstars fifty50 tournaments, before I can be satisfied in life. I'm now almost back down to 0$ (not in tournaments overall, but that particular one). That's with rake, so even if I take these at face value I'm better than most people, but that's so not good enough. There's almost no single task that I've invested so much effort in without succeeding. And I'm pretty sure that I will succeed if I get average luck for a while

[silverspawn]

Damn, this is really not working out for Russia, is it?

[silverspawn]

It certainly appears as if I've overestimated Putin's rationality.

[silverspawn]

I know little about smash, but woah that was crazy fun to watch

[Awaclus]

I get annoyed just considering the possibility of someone opening Throne Room/Feast. These people who just take extreme risks in dominion

Fortunately that possibility no longer exists.

[LaLight]

Damn, this is really not working out for Russia, is it?

oh yes.

[silverspawn]

There is no intellectual elite ruling the world. But I wonder to what extent there is sort of a set of common knowledge among the elite that the public isn't privy to. I do think (although I'm not sure about any of this because how could I) that among people who get to make large-scale military decisions, everyone knows that e.g. Islam is a uniquely dangerous doctrine, even while you're not allowed to say that in public. Similarly, perhaps that you do not joke around about what countries you do and don't defend.

Was reminded of this when I Just watched a random clip of Scholz, where he said he's absolutely clear that there will be no nato troops involved in the war. I think this is the kind of thing you're really supposed to say if you get to play at the top, the kind of statement that matters, and the kind of rules you follow if you don't want world war III.

[silverspawn]

Which is why Trump's "maybe we shouldn't defend NATO countries if russia invades" was such a big deal and not like the 68123789235777772 other crazy things he said

[silverspawn]

Just gotta hope that even if Putin is not the strategic mind I thought he was, he's still going to stick to the basic rules. Ukraine is not a nato country. You're "allowed" to invade it, to some extent. Yes there will be sanctions, but it's still in the set of things you can do without risking WW3. I mean there is a risk of WW3 right now, but it's mostly based on Putin stepping over real lines in the future

[silverspawn]

From what I've heard, which is still not much, the one thing you're really not supposed to do, in fact there is such a thing, was the thing about threatening nukes in response to sanctions. Or maybe no-one who matters took that seriously. Certainly it didn't prevent Europe from doing the sanctions

[silverspawn]

*if in fact there is such a thing

[silverspawn]

Maybe this means bad things for Russia's AI efforts down the line, we have one fewer player, and the world actually gets a little bit safer.

[silverspawn]

FINALLY SOME OF THAT LUCK I'VE BEEN WAITING FOR KEEP IT COMING DON'T STOP