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Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 356025 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2175 on: December 20, 2021, 10:04:19 am »

Apparently "the space of solutions, even correct ones, is sufficiently large that two identical copies will be noticed immediately" isn't an intuition that average people have.

If we are conservative, the space of perfect solutions for this exercise is 4! * 2! * 4! * 3! = 6912 based on three groups where the order is arbitrary (plust the order of these three groups). In reality it's quite a bit higher because there are lots of places to have little redundancies like extra lines or changing the same element twice, which people do all the time if they work independently.

And this is just the set of perfect solutions anyway, so the probability to have two people hand in the same one is about 1/7000 after conditioning on boith being perfect. In reality,  there's no way they're all good enoug to do this perfectly; this was the hardest one.

I am genuinely impressed that someone managed to do it perfectly. But maybe that part was cheating, too.

Then there's one guy who I also supect cheated, but probably changed a bunch. If so, he will get away with it because I have reasonable doubt.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2176 on: December 20, 2021, 10:05:49 am »

Yet more evidence that bad people turn our worse and good people turn out better than the initial impression, not vice versa. It's not bloody coincidence that the most difficult class was the only one that cheated.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2177 on: December 20, 2021, 11:49:43 am »

Here's what I'm gonna do

I'll wait until the holidays start. Then I'll send everyone an email telling them that some cheated and asking the ones that did to admit it per mail. The ones who do get 0 points in the exam and that's it. The ones who don't get 0 points in the exam, detention, and maybe something else

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2178 on: December 20, 2021, 11:50:25 am »

this has the advantage that I'll also catch the guy who probably cheated but changed it enough to make the evidence inconclusive.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2179 on: December 20, 2021, 11:50:34 am »

well, maybe

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2180 on: December 20, 2021, 12:16:52 pm »

But on the upside, the class was really quiet today!

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2181 on: December 20, 2021, 02:54:26 pm »

What game would chess be like if, in addition to the current rules, at any point you had the option to sacrifice n pawns to make one pawn move n+1 steps instead of 1? not possible to move through other pieces, nor combine going forward and diagonally, nor sac more than n pawns

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2182 on: December 20, 2021, 05:17:36 pm »

so I've been looking at Netflix and put on that movie The Discovery, and the conceit is that some scientist discovered that there is an afterlife, and so it becomes this world-famous discovery, and suicides go way up

sounds like a fine plot, right?

I posit you a similar plot: scientists make an even more unfathomable discovery. Not something small like one afterlife of totally uncertain character. No, they discover...

.... that there are INFINITELY MANY WORDS EXISTING IN PARALLEL

AND MORE! NEW WORLDS ARE CREATED EVER NANOSECOND!

and people freak out like crazy. It becomes the only thing anyone talks about. They make the day of the discovery an international holiday. Suicides go way up becomes people know they have other lives that may be happier. They become more risk taking. They stop being afraid of death. Some who think their life is bad start panicking.

People would walk into the movie theater and watch this, and nod along, and I bet "people are overreacting" would not make the top 5 on the list of complaints. Dispute this; I dare you.

Of course, the real world is much less exciting because rather than being a hypothetical crazy discovery it's just -- yawn -- real science -- yawn. real science is boring. correspondingly, people don't care. they really truly do not care. the degree to which people don't care about many worlds ridicules any description. I once mentioned it to my grandfather when he was still alive, maybe 2 years ago, and he made one comment about something related to god it reminded him of, and that was it. It was imminently clear that it did not rise in importance above the level of any random thought experiment or odd philosophical curiosity.

maybe that's because the debate about Copenhagen isn't over yet, but that just feels implausible at this point. If people give zero fucks about something being believed by half the scientists, would that 0 really go to 100 if it was believed by 90% instead?

It seems much more plausible that most people are just grotesquely wrong about what most people who actually live in the real social world actually care about. When Eliezer Yudkowsky says things like, 'people are more afraid of being looked at weird than dying', this sounds so much like an exaggeration, but it seems like it's just straight-forwardly true. you don't think it's true because, well, we wouldn't play Russian roulette, but that's because the roulette is scary; we don't go cliff diving because that is scary. But when the thing itself is not scary like not putting on a seat belt or smoking or speeding on the highway... society had to push and push and push to get people not to do t he ridiculous life-threatening thing there.

And I actually remember when I was quite small and on a trip with my class, and we were doing something super dangerous where we could fall to death, except of course we had strict safety setups so that, if we fall, nothing happens. Then I noticed (I don't know if it actually happened, but I believed that it happened) that the safety wasn't there for me, and I was like really scared of, you guessed it, the embarrassment of someone noticing, but then I realized that I could just finish the task without the safety there, and I did and it was fine. Not scary.

To additionally nail down this effect because plausibly two different mechanisms have to apply to explain the degree to which people don't care about many worlds, I think most people just have a world model where 'philosophical thoughts' are this special category that is not allowed to affect them. A bit like conspiracy theories.

There's this other Netflix movie Horse Girl about this woman who believes in a bunch of crazy things and eventually just gets a severe psychological disease and starts hallucinating, and the central message seems to be something like "if someone hallucinates something, that something is real to them". But the most memorable scene to me was when she met this guy at a party, and they're into each other, then they go eating, and she talks about how she was at a doctor who made fun of her for bringing up paranormal stuff, and he says how he believes aliens helps build the pyramids, and then she goes further but he's really into it, and then afterward they start kissing and it's lovely-

-and she says she thinks she's a clone of her grandmother, and that some guy is another clone whom she saw in her dreams, which is actually when she woke up during the alien abductions, and there is that moment when he realizes that this person really believes what she's saying-

-and then, and this is the scene that stuck in memory, she drags him to the cemetery where she wants to dig out her grandmother's grave to take her DNA to prove it, and he of course is freaking out and wants none of it, and she quite reasonably reminds him of their previous discussion and



And then, "I thought we were just talking about conspiracy theories"

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2183 on: December 20, 2021, 05:24:58 pm »

Which touches on another interesting but separate mechanism, namely that there are these things which people don't know in the abstract like "most behavior of most rich people most of the time is signaling" and "most people don't believe what they profess to believe". But then when people actually have to model the psychology of humans, they implicitly are aware of this. Robin Hanson who spearheaded the signaling model said this, too; if you give actors a scene where what is said is what's really going on, they'll complain to you that this has to little depth. Where is the thing that's really going on beneath the dialogue? And same with here. In the abstract, what I just talked about is rarely known, but if you apply it to this scene, everyone could tell what happens. Of course the guy wouldn't really want her to dig out her grand mother. That would be weird.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2184 on: December 21, 2021, 09:06:33 am »

And my phd application got

rejected

Now I no longer have to worry about the sunk cost fallacy and can worry about the sour grapes fallacy instead.

although if my emotional reaction is a reliable indicator, it didn't seem like I particularly wanted it anymore. Or at least I cared much less than I did when I tried the first time

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2185 on: December 21, 2021, 09:08:03 am »

Bofore, I think all four of

it gets accepted and I still want to do it
it gets rejected but I still want to do it
it gets accepted but no longer want to do it
it gets rejected and I no longer want it anyway

had at least 10% probability mass

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2186 on: December 21, 2021, 05:49:07 pm »

I hope that when the USA becomes a dictatorship lead by an utter idiot in 2024, he's too disinterested to play any role in AGI regulation.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2187 on: December 22, 2021, 07:19:19 am »

Here's what I'm gonna do

I'll wait until the holidays start. Then I'll send everyone an email telling them that some cheated and asking the ones that did to admit it per mail. The ones who do get 0 points in the exam and that's it. The ones who don't get 0 points in the exam, detention, and maybe something else

Email is out. Now we shall see what happens.

I tried to query my brain for failure modes before sending and the biggest one was people hedging in their responses, forcing me to give a reply. To prevent this, I said explicitly that I won't communicate and that I will ignore any ambiguous mail. Confess or do not confess.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2188 on: December 22, 2021, 07:51:21 am »

One aspect of this is a genuine puzzle. Exercise 3 (=A3) is where the cheating is obvious. But now I've also taken a closer look at A2. Everyone who cheated did the same pretty weird (imo) mistake, but otherwise they don't look all that similar; no two are exactly alike. Weird.

One explanation that generates this observation is that someone just uploaded a picture for that one rather than the text. In fact, maybe the way it went down was

- when working on A2, someone got the bright idea to cheat. They took a photo of the screen with their phone and uploaded it to their whatsapp group
- I apparently (and actually) did not notice
- encouraged by this success, they decided to go one step further in A3

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2189 on: December 22, 2021, 08:03:03 am »

Oh nvm they also totally cheated in A1. Hadn't noticed that before. This is nice; not that I need more evidence to nail down the ridiculously overdetermined result, but should I have to demonstrate this to the school director or something, more evidence may help.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2190 on: December 22, 2021, 08:03:58 am »

They did not cheat in A4 or the bonus exercise, even though A4 would have been the one where it's hardest to tell

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2191 on: December 22, 2021, 08:06:16 am »

Especially seeing that, in A1, they all handed in identical wrong solutions. Probably 2/3 points.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2192 on: December 22, 2021, 08:10:38 am »

A1 and A2 do not give further evidence that the fifth guy who I said most likely cheated actually cheated. I am legitimately uncertain now, although I would still bet on it rather than against. but certainly he'll get away with it if he chooses not to confess.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2193 on: December 22, 2021, 08:24:06 am »

As I may have said before, the data indicates that I'm bad at writing applications. I've only been accepted twice. Once was for the editing job where I took a test, and the other was for the teaching job where they presumably were just in dire need of more computer science teachers. And I put real effort into the applications, so there is no excuse.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2194 on: December 22, 2021, 12:51:22 pm »

In other news, I may have caught Covid as well, although probably not? I have a cough and that's basically it, also I did a test and it said negative.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2195 on: December 22, 2021, 04:14:19 pm »

I don't remember if I ever explicitly decided that it wasn't just about the number of words, but I went about generating hypotheses as if that were a given. I even had some that sued prime numbers

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2196 on: December 22, 2021, 04:29:14 pm »

so apparently the rapid tests have high false negative rates, which means I could totally have covid

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2197 on: December 22, 2021, 06:41:00 pm »

Hot take: being anti crypto is stupid

the blockchain is the technological implementation of digital scarcity. That's it. Previously, there was no analog to physical scarcity; if I email you the serial number of a bill, we both have it. Now there is. It's such a bizarre thing to be against. It makes about as much sense to me as being anti zero knowledge proof.

The non-stupid argument against using bitcoin and such is that it damages the climate, but this doesn't translate into being "anti-crypto"

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2198 on: December 23, 2021, 01:50:57 am »

Hot take: being anti crypto is stupid

the blockchain is the technological implementation of digital scarcity. That's it. Previously, there was no analog to physical scarcity; if I email you the serial number of a bill, we both have it. Now there is. It's such a bizarre thing to be against. It makes about as much sense to me as being anti zero knowledge proof.

The non-stupid argument against using bitcoin and such is that it damages the climate, but this doesn't translate into being "anti-crypto"

I'm pretty sure the majority of the hate against crypto stems from the fact that weird nerdy guys are into it, and the extent to which most people even care about the environmental impact is that it's a convenient excuse to hate the thing that weird nerdy guys are into without having to explicitly admit that you just hate weird nerdy guys, which is starting to become a bit of a socially questionable thing to say out loud recently.

I totally think that there should be more of a push to move from Bitcoin to some of the more environment-friendly alternatives, because truthfully, Bitcoin's energy consumption is ridiculous. But there isn't, because that doesn't solve the problem of it being a weird nerdy guy thing.
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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #2199 on: December 23, 2021, 03:16:39 am »

so apparently the rapid tests have high false negative rates, which means I could totally have covid
You could but having a regular cold during this time of year is not at all surprising. However I think if you are symptomatic you can get a PCR test done for free at your doctor's.
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