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Author Topic: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)  (Read 113344 times)

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faust

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #125 on: January 11, 2016, 01:20:47 pm »

hmmmm

one reason against partial mass claiming is that WW already claimed vig. If we partial claim, we want the weak PRs to be hidden so that scum can't easily kill the strong ones.

I am not sure what you're saying here.

well, the drawback of partial massclaiming is that scum can more easily kill PRs, right? Vig is a pretty weak PR, so if we do the partial massclaim now, there will be fewer unknown PRs, and the strong ones will be among them. If scum starts killing those, rip Cop, rip uh whatever other strong PRs there are.

I disagree with the notion that Vig is a weak PR, and so does yuma if we go by the setup.
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Awaclus

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #126 on: January 11, 2016, 01:27:00 pm »

I think vig is pretty weak. Even normally, it's not clear if you want to use it at all, and here, there is the extra opportunity cost.
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Awaclus

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #127 on: January 11, 2016, 01:27:58 pm »

I'm not sure what I tried to mean by opportunity cost, but there's an extra cost.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #128 on: January 11, 2016, 01:52:37 pm »

Do we want town to lie ever?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #129 on: January 11, 2016, 02:24:13 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

RR (2): EgorK, ss
ss (1): Awaclus
EFHW (3): Teproc, gkrieg, ADK
WW (1): ashersky

Not Voting (6): Xerxes, faust, WW, hydrad, RR, EFHW

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #130 on: January 11, 2016, 02:28:44 pm »

Do we want town to lie ever?

Close to never. Maybe not never-never.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #131 on: January 11, 2016, 02:29:11 pm »

Let's get Shraeye in here to answer that one
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #132 on: January 11, 2016, 02:29:48 pm »

Meanwhile...

The interesting thing about this setup is that nights get better for town as it goes along. I think no-lynching is worth discussing.

Why is this?
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #133 on: January 11, 2016, 02:30:06 pm »

Do we want town to lie ever?
hardly ever!
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #134 on: January 11, 2016, 02:36:19 pm »

I don't like organizing the vig shots because then we let scum know what's going to happen at night and can react accordingly.

We don't really... I guess it guarantees that they don't use Bulletproof, but that's it.

I'm really curious how youg guys think a Vig shot is worth as much as an investigative shot. Every time a Vig shoots, that's a Cop who doesn't get to investigate in the future. THat's pretty terrible, we should arrange things so taht every one of our shots is actually useful (that's why I would want doctors to strongly consider not protecting).

There's also the chance that we don't end up using all the shots, in which case a vig doesn't stop the cop from copping.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #135 on: January 11, 2016, 02:41:35 pm »

I'm not saying WW should shoot for sure, I'm saying we should leave that decision up to WW.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #136 on: January 11, 2016, 02:42:24 pm »

Hi, I'm here. silver sounds towny here, not so sure about ashersky....
Two possibilities :
a) EFHW is being funny, but it's ambiguous, and ambiguity is scummy
b) EFHW is being serious, which means she's already fully into this game, probably because she's been discussing it with her scumbuddies

vote: EFHW

We're out of RVS now. You're welcome.

Quoi?  I'm funny! Really. I mean it, seriously.

vote: EFHW

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here.

I'm trying to say I thought your response was scummy.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #137 on: January 11, 2016, 02:44:09 pm »

Teproc says: 'If you have a PR, use it!'
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faust

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #138 on: January 11, 2016, 03:05:12 pm »

I think vig is pretty weak. Even normally, it's not clear if you want to use it at all, and here, there is the extra opportunity cost.

Using a vig or using a lynch - these are pretty similar. Surely lynches are good?
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #139 on: January 11, 2016, 03:12:56 pm »

Teproc says: 'If you have a PR, use it!'

I do ?

@faust : They are similar in that they have the same downsides except vigs have none of the upside (aside from hitting scum I mean, which i think vigs are less likely to than lynches).
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #140 on: January 11, 2016, 03:15:36 pm »

Vigs are a typical case of Best Case Scenario Mentality, in that it feels great when it works. I get it, chairs will never be able to not use a vig shot because he wants to bask in that Dynasty Warriors glory. But when it doesn't work, it's just awful. Whereas a lot of good can come out of a mislynch, and correct lynches are much, mich better than correct vig shots.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #141 on: January 11, 2016, 03:16:16 pm »

Teproc says: 'If you have a PR, use it!'

I do ?

@faust : They are similar in that they have the same downsides except vigs have none of the upside (aside from hitting scum I mean, which i think vigs are less likely to than lynches).
Back in Marval heros when we were talking about Yuma's power.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #142 on: January 11, 2016, 03:16:54 pm »

So yes, lynches are good, but they're about 10 times superior to vig shots in terms of EV. Vig shots are, generally, negative EV.

PPE : So are you being sarcastic or misremembering ? Because I wasn't the one making the argument (I think WW was ?).
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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #143 on: January 11, 2016, 03:19:45 pm »

Do we want town to lie ever?

Town should generally not lie. There are of course exceptions, plenty of them, but when one chooses to lie as town, one must be aware that it will make it very hard to be trusted, which could make the lie pointless. The typical example would be a PR claiming VT to avoid being killed, but what's the point if you're getting mislynched when you claim because you lied ?

But you know all this, so what's going on ?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #144 on: January 11, 2016, 03:23:07 pm »

So yes, lynches are good, but they're about 10 times superior to vig shots in terms of EV. Vig shots are, generally, negative EV.

PPE : So are you being sarcastic or misremembering ? Because I wasn't the one making the argument (I think WW was ?).
That might've been WW. If it was, it seems more likely that he'll shoot.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #145 on: January 11, 2016, 03:31:53 pm »

I'm going to shoot if I think it's a  good idea.  In this setup, there is the opportunity cost of using up a shot, so it's somewhat less likely than without it.
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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #146 on: January 11, 2016, 03:35:42 pm »

I was also slightly exaggerating my desire for Yuma to shoot in that game. 
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #147 on: January 11, 2016, 04:12:24 pm »

I'm going to shoot if I think it's a  good idea.  In this setup, there is the opportunity cost of using up a shot, so it's somewhat less likely than without it.

I like this, and I think this should be the end of discussion on the matter.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #148 on: January 11, 2016, 04:30:17 pm »

I'm going to shoot if I think it's a  good idea.  In this setup, there is the opportunity cost of using up a shot, so it's somewhat less likely than without it.

I like this, and I think this should be the end of discussion on the matter.

Agreed. So are we claiming now?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day1)
« Reply #149 on: January 11, 2016, 04:33:33 pm »

I'm going back and forth on whether it's a good idea or not.
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