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Author Topic: M73: Forest Fire - Game Over - Mafia Wins  (Read 81460 times)

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ashersky

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #650 on: December 16, 2015, 07:26:40 am »

The stats post argument you made was especially wrong, given it's well-known I've been working on a statistical record of mafia for ages.
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silverspawn

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #651 on: December 16, 2015, 08:46:54 am »

I v0ted Eevee.

Vtoe: Eevee I think

this is neither a vote nor a v0te, but you're welcome to revote.

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 1)
« Reply #652 on: December 16, 2015, 09:10:47 am »

Comments about ash day 1 - there is this

Either ss-awa or Yuma-eevee for sure.

Joseph is the third in both cases.  Game solved.
Do you have any theory ideas for the setup?

a lack of setup discussion from ash is very unusual

and me saying that I believe your slip

There's also some RR <-> ash back and forth, but it's all about RR.

Awaclus says he doesn't like your wagon

Interestingly enough, I'm actually completely fine with all of the current wagons except for ash. Silver is not as good as RR or Joseph, though.

And that's all. Probably more day 2...

gkrieg13

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #653 on: December 16, 2015, 12:12:12 pm »

v0te: RR as well.  I'll put together another case on him if you guys want.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #654 on: December 16, 2015, 12:22:04 pm »

v0te: RR as well.  I'll put together another case on him if you guys want.
I would like that.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #655 on: December 16, 2015, 12:28:26 pm »

RR:
  My new point is that if you look at RR's voting history in games where he is town, you will see that he has a hard time voting for people.  He usually has to be told by people to vote somewhere.  If you just look at D1 of this game, he votes for 3 different people and is always voting for someone.  D2, he is the 3rd person to vote.  It is very uncharacteristic of him.  Look at switch mafia, he claims multiple times he will wait to vote.  I'll look into other games later.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #656 on: December 16, 2015, 12:36:46 pm »

RR:
  My new point is that if you look at RR's voting history in games where he is town, you will see that he has a hard time voting for people.  He usually has to be told by people to vote somewhere.  If you just look at D1 of this game, he votes for 3 different people and is always voting for someone.  D2, he is the 3rd person to vote.  It is very uncharacteristic of him.  Look at switch mafia, he claims multiple times he will wait to vote.  I'll look into other games later.
That's because I was a noob! I'm not a noob anymore!
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Joseph2302

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #657 on: December 16, 2015, 01:27:08 pm »

I v0ted Eevee.

Vtoe: Eevee I think

this is neither a vote nor a v0te, but you're welcome to revote.
Stats thing seems odd and scummy to me, so V0te: Eevee.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Eevee

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #658 on: December 16, 2015, 02:38:34 pm »

Why is it scummy?
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yuma

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #659 on: December 16, 2015, 03:47:38 pm »

might have time to do the homework tonight...
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ashersky

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #660 on: December 16, 2015, 04:07:32 pm »

I would point out I assigned this because I can't do it myself.  You have to look for something in a new light, a light I could already see.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #661 on: December 16, 2015, 04:12:33 pm »

Looking at all of the wagons that went to L-1 or further

Vote Count 1.1:

silverspawn (3): Awaclus, Eevee, Gkrieg, Ashersky (L-1)
Awaclus (1): Yuma
Eevee (2): Roadrunner, silverspawn
Ashersky (1): Joseph2302
Not Voting (1): Hydrad

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December 12 at 11:00 a.m. forum time.

Vote Count 1.3:

silverspawn (2): Ashersky, Eevee
Eevee (2): Yuma, Roadrunner
Ashersky (1): Joseph2302
Roadrunner (4): Awaclus, silverspawn, Gkrieg, Hydrad (L-1)
Not Voting (0):

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December 12 at 11:00 a.m. forum time.


Thread locked

Vote Count 1.Final:

Gkrieg (3): Roadrunner, Joseph2302, Hydrad,
Joseph2302 (5): silverspawn, Yuma, Gkrieg, Eevee, Awaclus
silverspawn (1): Ashersky

With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch.

Joseph was lynched. He was Tree and now is Tree Stump

Night 1 ends on December 12 at 11:00 a.m. forum time. Night actions are due in 24 hours


Treestopher had... different priorities than the other trees. While they focused on tree-things, like pollination and photosynthesis, Treestopher always had his face in a book studying math and social theory. "Books!?" Treeson once yelled at him. "Books!? Do you have any idea where books come from!?" But nothing could turn Treestopher away from his passion. 

Perhaps it was only natural that the other trees would suspect Treestopher somewhat at such a tense moment. When the votes stacked up, Treestopher decided rather than attempting to allay the suspicion, he would simply embrace the life of a stump. In fact, it was partially at his own bidding that the woodcutters came to cut him down.

Final Vote Count: Day 2

Roadrunner (1): Gkrieg
Ashersky (5): Hydrad, Eevee, Roadrunner, Yuma, Ashersky
Eevee (1): silverspawn,
Not Voting (1): Awaclus

With 8 alive, it took 5 to lynch. Ashersky was Treestopher the Tree. 

Night 2 begins now and ends at 4:30PM on Tuesday, December 15.


Analysis to follow
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gkrieg13

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #662 on: December 16, 2015, 04:20:56 pm »

So yuma and Eevee were the only two on both of the mislynches.  Neither of them were on the RR L-1.

The biggest thing I have is a strong town read on Awaclus.

Ash made his wagon analysis a little more difficult with the self-hammer.

Assuming both scum were on the last mislynch, we need one person that wasn't on the first mislynch, and were on the second.

This leaves yuma or Eevee, and RR or Hydrad.
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Eevee

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #663 on: December 16, 2015, 04:32:54 pm »

I don't get those assumptions.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #664 on: December 16, 2015, 04:38:54 pm »

I don't get those assumptions.
They seem to be biased towards Gkreig's scumreads.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #665 on: December 16, 2015, 04:41:05 pm »

I don't get those assumptions.
They seem to be biased towards Gkreig's scumreads.
Well they target 4 people out of 6, so I don't see how they are super biased.  I have a town read on ss and Awaclus because of this analysis is pretty much what I got out of it.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #666 on: December 16, 2015, 04:43:54 pm »

I don't get those assumptions.
They seem to be biased towards Gkreig's scumreads.
Well they target 4 people out of 6, so I don't see how they are super biased.  I have a town read on ss and Awaclus because of this analysis is pretty much what I got out of it.
Fair enough, I suppose. With stumping, it's hard to remember how many people are really alive.
And do you think comparing my play in Switch to this game is fair? I've evolved rapidly since then.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #667 on: December 17, 2015, 08:13:02 am »

Vote Count 3.2:

Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Gkrieg, Hydrad, Eevee, Roadrunner, Yuma, silverspawn

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 3 will end on December 22 at 4:30PM forum time.
 
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

ashersky

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #668 on: December 17, 2015, 08:33:13 am »

I'd like re-reads of yuma by everyone, including yuma.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #669 on: December 17, 2015, 08:59:34 am »

Vote Count 3.2:

Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Gkrieg, Hydrad, Eevee, Roadrunner, Yuma, silverspawn

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 3 will end on December 22 at 4:30PM forum time.

Thanks
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yuma

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #670 on: December 17, 2015, 09:02:31 am »

I'd like re-reads of yuma by everyone, including yuma.

before or after the reread of you...?
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ashersky

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #671 on: December 17, 2015, 09:13:22 am »

I'd like re-reads of yuma by everyone, including yuma.

before or after the reread of you...?

After.  Everyone is behind.
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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #672 on: December 17, 2015, 09:18:06 am »

Rereading yuma, 62 posts which I'm guessing is around average. I'm pointing out things I find noteworthy / potentially helpful.

First "real" contribution about another player, not theory or flavor or RVS is suspicion on me for saying it's scummy silver isn't saying he is town (with a vote).
it is a problem because it focuses on what was not said instead of what was said.

one is exclusionary and is thus more susceptible to manipulation. the other is limited. there are lots of things people don't say, and it is easy to find that scummy. it is much harder to find things that people have said scummy, if you are scum trying to get someone else lynched.


Then saying RR is scummy for his reaction to emojigate.

then saying Joseph is coming out the scummiest from the silliness (and voting for him in the next post)

RR uses "i'm an aggressive person" as a defense, and yuma disagrees that that's true.

Votes for me when I ask people to vote someone.

After I weep for getting votes and explain my suspicion on ash, he changes his vote to ashersky (L-1).

Nothing of interest (to me) today yet.

Conclusion: I don't know, I would say he isn't very engaged in the game yet, as you'd expect to see stronger opinions and pushing them more from yuma. I wouldn't say that's a scum trait for him since he is very good at playing an aggressive scum game. Actually being town would probably most correlate with having problems with effort and interest levels. yuma wouldn't be my lynch choice for today.

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gkrieg13

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #673 on: December 17, 2015, 10:10:31 am »

I'd like re-reads of yuma by everyone, including yuma.

Should I do another one?
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ashersky

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Re: M73: Forest Fire (Day 3)
« Reply #674 on: December 17, 2015, 10:29:24 am »

I'd like re-reads of yuma by everyone, including yuma.

Should I do another one?

No.
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