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[chairs]

Agreed, WW is IC.

I am Town and believe a massclaim is not beneficial, but I could see having the UB claim and here's why - the UB is worth trading 1-for-1 in a counterclaim scenario where we lynch the real UB. We don't have any guarantee Town has a PR, but if Town does have a PR, Town could have a Doctor. The Doctor could then (in a non-counterclaim scenario) doctor the UB, giving us a virtual IC who doesn't die except to Mafia Strongman. If the Mafia do kill the UB N1 then worst-case scenario we have at least one guaranteed-Town voice for D1, which is awfully nice.

[pingpongsam]

No one is IC. If there were an IC it was to be announced at the beginning of D1.

[Awaclus]

Experiments are nice and all, but I'd rather just win.

[gkrieg13]

I think my question got overlooked.  Why is it beneficial for masons to claim D1?

[pingpongsam]

I think my question got overlooked.  Why is it beneficial for masons to claim D1?

If 2 masons claim AND no one else claims mason we can kill one and IC the other.

[ashersky]

I think my question got overlooked.  Why is it beneficial for masons to claim D1?

If 2 masons claim AND no one else claims mason we can kill one and IC the other.

Uh no.

[yuma]

at what point does silly-RVS posts end these days, especially ones that are answers to serious questions...?

[pingpongsam]

at what point does silly-RVS posts end these days, especially ones that are answers to serious questions...?

After D1.

[yuma]

Experiments are nice and all, but I'd rather just win.

so would I. And I think mass claiming has a good chance of doing that. It might hurt us, I'll be the first to admit, but I think the chance of it helping is greater and the amount it would help us is greater than the amount it would hurt us.

Getting information for future games is a fringe benefit, but my argument is that everyone says that mass claiming is bad without having any concrete examples to show that it actually was. It is all just theoretical at this point.

If I thought mass claiming would truly be awful i woudln't suggest it just for experiment's sake.

[Awaclus]

It might be good in a setup where it's harder to fake claim. In this setup, I don't really see the benefit.

[Witherweaver]

Also...for old time's sake...

I have a plan!

If it involves mass claiming from the very beginning I am all for it.

I ran a couple of simulations and I think in general mass claiming will be beneficial for town.

I dont' think it will be game breaking or setup solving (obviously the guy who designed this setup designed it too well for that) but it does put mafia in an awkward position from the beginning and forces them to commit to a role early on.

There are obviously risks, but I think in generally they are small and are probably worth it for the payback.

So, like, how do you put mass claiming in simulations?  Or what is the result that leads to thinking its beneficial?

[gkrieg13]

I think my question got overlooked.  Why is it beneficial for masons to claim D1?

If 2 masons claim AND no one else claims mason we can kill one and IC the other.

That sounds like a good enough reason.  haha

[Witherweaver]

Masonry is a dangerous profession on F.DS.

[yuma]

Also...for old time's sake...

I have a plan!

If it involves mass claiming from the very beginning I am all for it.

I ran a couple of simulations and I think in general mass claiming will be beneficial for town.

I dont' think it will be game breaking or setup solving (obviously the guy who designed this setup designed it too well for that) but it does put mafia in an awkward position from the beginning and forces them to commit to a role early on.

There are obviously risks, but I think in generally they are small and are probably worth it for the payback.

So, like, how do you put mass claiming in simulations?  Or what is the result that leads to thinking its beneficial?

Well all I did was pull up random.org and ran 3 example setups that SS could have hypothetically rolled and then looked at what would happen, how town would react and what I anticipated mafia would fake claim in those given setups.

The main takeaways were that there were a handful of roles that would give pretty much IC status: UB, Masons, semi-IC status--meaning they are harder to fake (1-shot Roleblocker for example) and that it can create two separate pools from which we can look for mafia (people claiming VT and people claiming a role) that would sometimes, but allows us to narrow the confines from which we are looking mafia from 3 out of 12 to 2 out 7 or 1 out of 3.

We can run a couple of example setups together as a town if we want. But I kinda feel like at this point enough people aren't going to jump on board and my convincing skills aren't going to be enough to convince them.

[faust]

at what point does silly-RVS posts end these days, especially ones that are answers to serious questions...?

The day you start talking about something other than theory.

[faust]

Agreed, WW is IC.

I am Town and believe a massclaim is not beneficial, but I could see having the UB claim and here's why - the UB is worth trading 1-for-1 in a counterclaim scenario where we lynch the real UB. We don't have any guarantee Town has a PR, but if Town does have a PR, Town could have a Doctor. The Doctor could then (in a non-counterclaim scenario) doctor the UB, giving us a virtual IC who doesn't die except to Mafia Strongman. If the Mafia do kill the UB N1 then worst-case scenario we have at least one guaranteed-Town voice for D1, which is awfully nice.

FTFY

[Witherweaver]

Also...for old time's sake...

I have a plan!

If it involves mass claiming from the very beginning I am all for it.

I ran a couple of simulations and I think in general mass claiming will be beneficial for town.

I dont' think it will be game breaking or setup solving (obviously the guy who designed this setup designed it too well for that) but it does put mafia in an awkward position from the beginning and forces them to commit to a role early on.

There are obviously risks, but I think in generally they are small and are probably worth it for the payback.

So, like, how do you put mass claiming in simulations?  Or what is the result that leads to thinking its beneficial?

Well all I did was pull up random.org and ran 3 example setups that SS could have hypothetically rolled and then looked at what would happen, how town would react and what I anticipated mafia would fake claim in those given setups.

The main takeaways were that there were a handful of roles that would give pretty much IC status: UB, Masons, semi-IC status--meaning they are harder to fake (1-shot Roleblocker for example) and that it can create two separate pools from which we can look for mafia (people claiming VT and people claiming a role) that would sometimes, but allows us to narrow the confines from which we are looking mafia from 3 out of 12 to 2 out 7 or 1 out of 3.

We can run a couple of example setups together as a town if we want. But I kinda feel like at this point enough people aren't going to jump on board and my convincing skills aren't going to be enough to convince them.

Hey I like this; let's do a Shahrazad.  If your faction wins, we massclaim in the real game.  If not, we don't.

That would be an awesome Day 1.

[yuma]

unvote

I am pretty sure chairs is town.

Let me see if I can explain cause I lost myself a couple of times in trying to get there.

So chairs accused me here of a scumslip:

This is how it works. If you're scum you lie and claim VT. If you're VT you tell the truth and claim VT. If you are a Town PR you hide yourself by claiming VT.

So we all massclaim VT and that is so informative and helpful that Town just wins the game D1.

If you are a town PR why would you hide as claiming VT? that would be silly.

And if all the mafia claimed VT that would be great! We would just lynch VTs and the pool size would be 3 mafia in 9 instead of 3 mafia in 12! Awesome!

Scumslip.

The only people who could have an assumption regarding PR count at this time are scum.

vote: yuma

Which is wasn't because I was responding to a hypothetical from PPS:

This is how it works. If you're scum you lie and claim VT. If you're VT you tell the truth and claim VT. If you are a Town PR you hide yourself by claiming VT.

So we all massclaim VT and that is so informative and helpful that Town just wins the game D1.

If you are a town PR why would you hide as claiming VT? that would be silly.

And if all the mafia claimed VT that would be great! We would just lynch VTs and the pool size would be 3 mafia in 9 instead of 3 mafia in 12! Awesome!

in which I did bad math and reduced the pool size to 9 when it really should have stayed at 12 if everyone had claimed VT (we would be in the same boat that we are now.

However, chairs accused me later (well Awalcus did, it but chairs backed it up) of asking how I knew how many PRs there were, which would be a legitimate question if mafia were capable of knowing how many PRs there are.

Except mafia can't know how many PRs there are. All mafia can know if how many Ts were rolled, except that they don't even know that:

Scum Roles (In addition to the Godfather)
TTTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

There is only one setup wherein mafia knows how many Ts were rolled, setup 0T. All the others have replicates TTTTTT is the same for mafia as TTTTT. But even further, they don't know how many PRs were given out because of the inconsistent manner in which non-T roles are assigned to PRs. Meaning that some non-T roles give 1 PR per role (D, DD results in Doc, 1-shot Doc+Doc) but others give out in a different manner where a double role still just gives out 1 PR (V=1-shot Vig, VV=Vigilante).

So even if mafia knows how many Ts were rolled they can only guess at how many PRs there are.

For example, if we rolled TTT and the other roles were VVD then we would have 1 Vg, 1 doc and UB (three PRs leaving 6 VTs) but if we had rolled BBD then we would have 1 Roleblocker, 1-Shot Roleblocker, 1 Doc and UB (four PRs leaving 5 VTs).



All of this is to say that chairs found me scummy for something that scum could not be scummy for, therefore I think that chairs is likely to be town because he did not realize that scum did not have the ability to have such knowledge. Something I think any good scum QT would have discussed and realized that they did not know how many PRs there are

Now this doesn't make chairs an IC. He could have just not participated or had such a discussion in his QT or he could just be faking it. But I think both of those scenarios are a bit less likely.

So I am leaning pretty strong town on chairs.

back to vote: PPS

PPE: three

[yuma]

and I am not so sure about Awalacus as he did the same thing as chairs, but more on a follow up level...

[Witherweaver]

and I am not so sure about Awalacus as he did the same thing as chairs, but more on a follow up level...

Good enough for me.

Vote: Awaclus

I forgot I promised myself I'd tunnel him anyway.

[Hydrad]

here for now! be back later though for more.

my opinion is masons and UB claim? or something like that. I don't know if we gain much by having cops and stuff claim. maybe vigs?

I dunno. Full massclaim sounds scary but a smallish one I'm ok with.

[faust]

Well... I had a lot of the same thoughts about chairs' post, but came to different conclusions.

For town!chairs to see that as a scumslip, he would have to believe that scum knows how many PRs are out there and that you messed up big time. I don't think town!chairs believes that.

For scum!chairs, it's an easy argument to make, even if he knows it's wrong, he's participating and doesn't have to make any real cases.

PPE 3

[Witherweaver]

here for now! be back later though for more.

my opinion is masons and UB claim? or something like that. I don't know if we gain much by having cops and stuff claim. maybe vigs?

I dunno. Full massclaim sounds scary but a smallish one I'm ok with.

Could not be less committal to a stance if you tried.

[gkrieg13]

here for now! be back later though for more.

my opinion is masons and UB claim? or something like that. I don't know if we gain much by having cops and stuff claim. maybe vigs?

I dunno. Full massclaim sounds scary but a smallish one I'm ok with.

Why have UB claim?  Wouldn't he just be killed the next night and be made useless?

PPE 3

[yuma]

and I am not so sure about Awalacus as he did the same thing as chairs, but more on a follow up level...

Good enough for me.

Vote: Awaclus

I forgot I promised myself I'd tunnel him anyway.

hmmm... not quite what I meant. I feel like has he had a similar thought to chairs it makes me lean more town on him, but not as much as on chairs.