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[Seprix]

The neighborhood must have been made by anti-town, to draw in other anti-town, to try to win the game.  Ruin must be in there.

But all three of us admitted we were in the neighborhood. That's such an easy target. I mean, whatever. If I don't die now, Gkraig will almost certainly kill me with a ninja star, and then people might warm up to a gkraig lynch. Whatever, if I have to die to prove it so be it. Let's just think here, what's the best town play? What guarantees the Town win? I'd like WW and TA's opinion on this mostly, everyone else can of course chime in.

[Twistedarcher]

I too think that Gkrieg is the most likely candidate for third-party, if we have a third-party. But I'm not 100% sure that's true, and I'm not sure enough that I think I want to consider his lynch today. I'm thinking searching for mafia at this point is better. The fact that this QT exists, and that Chairs/Seprix are voting for Gkrieg, makes me think it's more likely that they're scum than WW/Mail-mi, so I don't think I want to lynch in WW/Mail-mi today -- they're off the table for me today. Ichi is off the table while Gkrieg is alive, obviously. That leaves Gkrieg, who I've already said I would prefer to not lynch today, and Chairs/Seprix. They've both been more than happy to jump aboard the third-party hunting wagon today, which I think is a position mafia wants to take.

[Twistedarcher]

Is there a reason why we're assuming Ruin has to be third party, rather than mafia? Just based on flavor?

[Seprix]

The problem with this is that Chairs is a 'Doctor'. Is there a way we can prove his claims to be reasonably possibly incorrect?

[Twistedarcher]

N1 mafia kill could be missing if E attempted it, I had a 50% chance of roleblocking him N1.

[Twistedarcher]

The problem with this is that Chairs is a 'Doctor'. Is there a way we can prove his claims to be reasonably possibly incorrect?

No, it's a pretty hard to prove (or disprove) a doctor, minus a tracker. We do have missing NKs, which could contribute to his claim being more likely than not, but we also have other reasons why the kills could be missing (your RBing, for example). Who did you RB again the past few nights?

[chairs]

I could vote for Seprix. Gkrieg seems like the stronger candidate for third party, but if you think we still have a Mafia, I think Seprix is a solid choice there.

[Seprix]

I RBd UoS N1, TA N2, I did not RB any other night (I forgot, I had another game with Night Actions. I'm dead in that game, so I can say that much, since everyone knows I did now. Anyways, I was focused on that game, and I forgot this game also had Night Actions.) Lat night, I RB'd Hydrad. So basically, my RBs have been incredibly unfortunate for me, and considering my role is 'useless' compared to Chairs, I'm probably fucked to be honest if it's a Chairs vs. Me thing.

[Twistedarcher]

Well, your RBing last night COULD explain a missing NK, if Hydrad attempted it.

[gkrieg13]

They've both been more than happy to jump aboard the third-party hunting wagon today, which I think is a position mafia wants to take.

This is especially what they want to jump on when I'm the most powerful towny we have left.

[gkrieg13]

I believe we have a third party, just based off of flavor.  It could be mafia, but if TA is telling the truth, it makes more sense that it is 3rd party.

[gkrieg13]

In order for me to the 3rd party though, my alignment would have to have changed when XP died.  That wouldn't have changed my flavor name.  That wouldn't make sense for mafia, or for the flavor.  Also TA's power would be useless until one of XP or I died.  This seems like a pretty far stretch to me.

[chairs]

It actually makes sense, flavor-wise, for Ruin to be a "hidden" character, where the death of a specific character turns them into Ruin and changes their alignment.

[gkrieg13]

It actually makes sense, flavor-wise, for Ruin to be a "hidden" character, where the death of a specific character turns them into Ruin and changes their alignment.

The last thing that doesn't make sense flavor-wise, is that all of my powers are the powers of a mistborn, like burning metals, which isn't what ruin has at all.

[Witherweaver]

I too think that Gkrieg is the most likely candidate for third-party, if we have a third-party. But I'm not 100% sure that's true, and I'm not sure enough that I think I want to consider his lynch today. I'm thinking searching for mafia at this point is better. The fact that this QT exists, and that Chairs/Seprix are voting for Gkrieg, makes me think it's more likely that they're scum than WW/Mail-mi, so I don't think I want to lynch in WW/Mail-mi today -- they're off the table for me today. Ichi is off the table while Gkrieg is alive, obviously. That leaves Gkrieg, who I've already said I would prefer to not lynch today, and Chairs/Seprix. They've both been more than happy to jump aboard the third-party hunting wagon today, which I think is a position mafia wants to take.

Huh?  What do you think Ruin is?

[Witherweaver]

Is there a reason why we're assuming Ruin has to be third party, rather than mafia? Just based on flavor?

Yes.

[Seprix]

Another thing to consider is this: Gkraig has gotten incredibly lucky with Mafia kills. Like, incredibly lucky. Who else could have killed that other guy with the coin in N1 or N2? Kraig says it isn't him. Well, who was it then? Things don't add up. Kraig would be dead by now if he was town I'd think.

[gkrieg13]

I would say that while I am powerful, I don't think ash expected XP to be lynched D1.  About the alignment switching, Ash before the game said that this game would be similar in complexity to DS9 (deepspace).  I looked at that game, and there was no weird alignment-switching 3rd party kind of thing, and I think that complexity would be out of the realm of RMM.  I looked through the last 15 RMM games and couldn't find one where a player's alignment switched.  Seeing as there weren't any super powerful town powers, I find it highly unlikely that my powers are OP for town, considering I wouldn't have gotten them so early if we hadn't lynched XP day 1.  With that, it seems a lot more likely, given the number of kills that have happened each night, that there is one scum team that had 4 people on it.  One other thing to consider, is that "Roleblockers have been known to be of either alignment, though Roleblocker is probably the most common Mafia power role" -mafiascum.net.  This doesn't exactly mean that Seprix is mafia for being a roleblocker, it just fits that he would be the final mafia member.

[Witherweaver]

Well, Ash did a sort of "alignment switching" in Dune 1, right?

[Witherweaver]

Another thing to consider is this: Gkraig has gotten incredibly lucky with Mafia kills. Like, incredibly lucky. Who else could have killed that other guy with the coin in N1 or N2? Kraig says it isn't him. Well, who was it then? Things don't add up. Kraig would be dead by now if he was town I'd think.

The coin thing is valid, but the lats point doesn't make sense.  You're not claiming he's on the e, EFHW, Hydrad team, right?

[gkrieg13]

I'm vla starting next Monday. Probably no internet access as I'll be on vacation

[chairs]

Seprix is claiming gkrieg13 is a third-party (probably SK).

gkrieg is claiming Seprix is a Mafioso.

[gkrieg13]

He could be either, I just think he fits the mafioso category better. Would it make people feel better if they could vote to guide my shot(s)?  Town has a way higher chance of winning with me still alive so if that is the alternative to lynching me, I'll do it.

[Witherweaver]

Seprix is claiming gkrieg13 is a third-party (probably SK).

gkrieg is claiming Seprix is a Mafioso.

But then Gkrieg not being dead is not any more evidence for him not being town; he'd be just as likely to get killed by Mafia as SK or Town. 

[chairs]

SK usually has 1-shot BP or something similar; it's also possible that me doctoring him the last couple nights prevented kill shots as well since I didn't consider third-party as an option until now - although I'm confused as to why I'm not dead.