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[Seprix]

I honestly don't know who to push for yet. I'll be home in a minute, to try and build a case.

[gkrieg13]

I have a question for the mod pending.

I'll wait for chairs before I do any rereads etc.

[Seprix]

For reference:

Day 1 Final Vote Count:

XP (9):  chairs, uos, Seprix, 2.7, WW, IG, Ghacob, EFHW, Hydrad
hockeysemlan (2): silverspawn, EgorK
2.7 (6): XP, TA, mail-mi, hockey, faust, gkrieg13

Not Voting (0):

With 17 alive, it took 9 to lynch.

D2 Final Vote Count:

2.7 (3): EFHW, hockeysemlan, silverspawn
EFHW (1): witherweaver
EgorK (8): UoS, Seprix, chairs, Ghacob, gkrieg13, Hydrad, 2.7
Ghacob (1): mail-mi
mail-mi (1): TA

Not Voting (2):  IG, EgorK

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

Based off of this list, we can make a number of probabilities:

First Question: The Double Vote

Here are some probabilities I can run by.

A player may cast a single vote, but it has the weight of two votes. If this is done, the moderator may explicitly list the vote twice, or just once.

Assuming this is true:

-IG did not vote, counting him out of contention.
-Double Voter is probably town for balance reasons
-The Double Voter did not seem to use his/her (for EFHW ) power on the votes on D1. This leaves me with two questions:

1. Does Ashersky count the vote come deadline if no majority lynch is reached?
2. Is the Double Vote a 1-shot or 2-shot?

A player may cast a single vote in-thread, but control an invisible second vote via PM.

Assuming this is true, the double voter could be anybody. The questions posed are the same. So in conclusion, there is nothing to learn about the double voter from these series of events in my mind.

Chairs's possible reveal may open some doors up however, so perhaps I should withhold any possible reads until the reveal happens (or doesn't).

[chairs]

I would not advise on holding up for rereads/etc. My pending data is, frankly, a minor concern - I basically just want to confirm my power usage PM was received as I sent it during the N2 action window but never received a reply.

[gkrieg13]

My guess is that it was a secret vote because the vote count stayed at 6 until e voted, where it went to 8.  Either e used a double vote (which seems weird to me), or there was a secret vote cast between hydrad voting for EgorK and e voting for EgorK.  It would be weird for ash to keep the vote count at the normal amount until the very last vote.

[gkrieg13]

I would not advise on holding up for rereads/etc. My pending data is, frankly, a minor concern - I basically just want to confirm my power usage PM was received as I sent it during the N2 action window but never received a reply.

Ya but this could give us more information.  Plus I actually just don't have time right now for a reread

[2.71828.....]

Well, I wasn't expecting to hammer there at L-1.

Vote Count 1.15:

XP (8):  chairs, uos, Seprix, 2.7, WW, IG, Ghacob, EFHW

So this is the L-1 wagon on XP.  Either the double vote thing didn't happen D1 or none of these people have the double vote. 

Then the wagon yesterday:

D2 Final Vote Count:

EgorK (8): UoS, Seprix, chairs, Ghacob, gkrieg13, Hydrad, 2.7

Would seem to imply that gkrieg or Hydrad are the double vote people.  Unless it isn't a "dboule vote" but a "secret vote" that can go anywhere they want it to go and they had it elsewhere on D1. 

I don't know, but right now I want to seriously look at gkrieg and hydrad as the top two lynch candidates. 

[EFHW]

Well, I wasn't expecting to hammer there at L-1.

Vote Count 1.15:

XP (8):  chairs, uos, Seprix, 2.7, WW, IG, Ghacob, EFHW

So this is the L-1 wagon on XP.  Either the double vote thing didn't happen D1 or none of these people have the double vote. 

Then the wagon yesterday:

D2 Final Vote Count:

EgorK (8): UoS, Seprix, chairs, Ghacob, gkrieg13, Hydrad, 2.7

Would seem to imply that gkrieg or Hydrad are the double vote people.  Unless it isn't a "dboule vote" but a "secret vote" that can go anywhere they want it to go and they had it elsewhere on D1. 

I don't know, but right now I want to seriously look at gkrieg and hydrad as the top two lynch candidates.

The extra vote power, however it happens, could be X-shot, meaning its owner decided not to use it on Day 1.  I don't think we can really rule anybody out.

[Seprix]

Well, I wasn't expecting to hammer there at L-1.

Vote Count 1.15:

XP (8):  chairs, uos, Seprix, 2.7, WW, IG, Ghacob, EFHW

So this is the L-1 wagon on XP.  Either the double vote thing didn't happen D1 or none of these people have the double vote. 

Then the wagon yesterday:

D2 Final Vote Count:

EgorK (8): UoS, Seprix, chairs, Ghacob, gkrieg13, Hydrad, 2.7

Would seem to imply that gkrieg or Hydrad are the double vote people.  Unless it isn't a "dboule vote" but a "secret vote" that can go anywhere they want it to go and they had it elsewhere on D1. 

I don't know, but right now I want to seriously look at gkrieg and hydrad as the top two lynch candidates.

So... Repeat what I said, and then lynch the possible double voters, who very may be town?

[chairs]

Got my response from mod. Nothing to report as a result, I'm afraid.

[gkrieg13]

I will claim right now that I don't have any double vote powers.  I think that it was a secret vote, because that just seems more likely to me in this case, seeing as it was used to lynch town.  A town double voter would probably make it known that their vote counts double because then no one accidentally hammers right?

[Ichimaru Gin]

I've skimmed the thread some. Why is it that people think someone on the wagon has a double-vote though? Isn't it just as likely (perhaps even moreso) that EgorK was hated?

[Seprix]

I will claim right now that I don't have any double vote powers.  I think that it was a secret vote, because that just seems more likely to me in this case, seeing as it was used to lynch town.  A town double voter would probably make it known that their vote counts double because then no one accidentally hammers right?

And then promptly be wiped out the next available night?

[gkrieg13]

I've skimmed the thread some. Why is it that people think someone on the wagon has a double-vote though? Isn't it just as likely (perhaps even moreso) that EgorK was hated?

I think it is because it said there were 8 votes on EgorK instead of 7

[2.71828.....]

There was nothing in EgorK's flip to say he was hated.  If he was hated, then that is scum making him hated.  Modifier's like hated should appear in a flip. 

Either way, scum has the ability to lynch people at L-1.  Whether that is by secret vote, double vote, or making people hated, we need to be careful with L-1

[2.71828.....]

I've skimmed the thread some. Why is it that people think someone on the wagon has a double-vote though? Isn't it just as likely (perhaps even moreso) that EgorK was hated?

I think it is because it said there were 8 votes on EgorK instead of 7

And this

[gkrieg13]

I will claim right now that I don't have any double vote powers.  I think that it was a secret vote, because that just seems more likely to me in this case, seeing as it was used to lynch town.  A town double voter would probably make it known that their vote counts double because then no one accidentally hammers right?

And then promptly be wiped out the next available night?

Good point

[Seprix]

There was nothing in EgorK's flip to say he was hated.  If he was hated, then that is scum making him hated.  Modifier's like hated should appear in a flip. 

Either way, scum has the ability to lynch people at L-1.  Whether that is by secret vote, double vote, or making people hated, we need to be careful with L-1

Scum has the double vote ability? Where's your proof?

[gkrieg13]

For reference:

Day 1 Final Vote Count:

XP (9):  chairs, uos, Seprix, 2.7, WW, IG, Ghacob, EFHW, Hydrad
hockeysemlan (2): silverspawn, EgorK
2.7 (6): XP, TA, mail-mi, hockey, faust, gkrieg13

Not Voting (0):



With 17 alive, it took 9 to lynch.

D2 Final Vote Count:

2.7 (3): EFHW, hockeysemlan, silverspawn
EFHW (1): witherweaver
EgorK (8): UoS, Seprix, chairs, Ghacob, gkrieg13, Hydrad, 2.7
Ghacob (1): mail-mi
mail-mi (1): TA

Not Voting (2):  IG, EgorK

With 15 alive, it took 8 to lynch.

people on the wagon that lynched D1 but not D2: WW, IG, EFHW
people on the wagon that lynched D2 but not D1: gkrieg13
people on the wagon both days: Seprix, chairs, Ghacob, Hydrad, e
people not on the wagon both days: mail-mi, TA, silverspawn, hockeysemlan

I'm not sure exactly how to analyze wagons but I can think of a few different ideas.  Tell me if my logic is wrong.
Scum doesn't want to be on a wagon that lynches town if they don't have to.  Which would mean that they either want to be one of the first on the wagon, or near the end to make sure it goes through over a scum lynch.  Does that make sense with mafia theory?   

[Seprix]

Generally you want to be early on the wagon, as the later you are, the more scrutinized you become.

[Seprix]

e looks bad, Ghacob looks bad, and there will be one scum who wants to not be on wagons who can be SS or TA honestly.

[gkrieg13]

e looks bad, Ghacob looks bad, and there will be one scum who wants to not be on wagons who can be SS or TA honestly.

I feel like mail-mi looks scummier than ss.  I agree with you about e and Ghacob and TA though.

[Seprix]

SS is lurking so hard right now. Like seriously. He's been online all day and has only posted once. He hasn't been doing ANY scum hunting which he usually does as town. Actually, I really like an SS lynch today.

Vote: SS

[2.71828.....]

There was nothing in EgorK's flip to say he was hated.  If he was hated, then that is scum making him hated.  Modifier's like hated should appear in a flip. 

Either way, scum has the ability to lynch people at L-1.  Whether that is by secret vote, double vote, or making people hated, we need to be careful with L-1

Scum has the double vote ability? Where's your proof?

I don't have "proof"

I am making the assumption that town would not have this ability and not have claimed it. 

What this looks like to me is scum trying to be a little too "open to all possibilities"

vote: Seprix

[Ichimaru Gin]

I'll sheep that. Vote: Seprix.
I'm not sure I've ever been in a game where someone has a doublevote, but is it more likely to be a scum ability than town?
It seems waaaaaaay more useful for scum than town though. Actually, the wiki seems to weight it more as a town role though.
It also brought up some stuff that I hadn't considered, like the two votes could be made independently with one of them being secret. So the extra vote could theoretically come from someone who was off the EgorK wagon it seems. I wonder about the syntatic implications of that on the vote counts though...