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[Seprix]

In retrospect, my thinking is kind of stupid, since any lynch MUST be a majority lynch.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

What's the concern of not having a majority lynch?  Wagon analysis?

That's what I understand out of it.  And it makes sense.

I could see it either way. You get information both ways. Majority, you see who will bend to the popular lynch. Just voting, you get everyone's #1 scum while still getting a lynch. The most important thing is that everyone is voting, not that we have a majority lynch.

Majority (or close to it) lynch is important because it makes it harder for scum to hide when we reread later.  If we mislynch a townie with like 3 votes and everyone on their preferred lynch, it's probably 3 townies on that townie, or maybe 1 scum who wound up there at random, but there's nothing informative in peoples actions getting onto or off that wagon.  Scum and lurkers and stubborn town can just sit on their #1 lynch and we've got basically nothing to go on.  Allowing that sort of game culture to exist is great for scum.

Also, those moments when scum have to decide whether or not to bus their partner often lead to slipups, and frankly the bussing vote sometimes helps us lynch scum.  If we don't get pretty close to a majority vote, scum will never have to bus their partners OR make a stand against bussing their partners.  Interactions become much less telling and it's much easier for scum to blend in.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

No conclusions yet, just found myself doing this, figured might as well post it.

I like Seprix better than XP, but I'm willing to vote: XP if it gets us a majority lynch to work with D2.

Here's the votecount when chairs voted XP:

XP (3):  2.7, Witherweaver, UoS
chairs (1):  EgorK
Seprix (6):  gkrieg13, Ghacob, hockey, silverspawn, Ichimaru Gin, TA
gkrieg13 (3):  Mail-mi, chairs, Seprix
hockeysemlan (1):  Hydrad
2.7 (3):  faust, efhw, XP

Not Voting (0):

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Seprix: No, a plurality lynch is a thing here, doesn't have to be a majority.  We'd just rather it was a majority.

"a majority" vs. "the majority" seems like reaching for a scumslip that isn't there.

And yeah, I find this post:

Let's think about this.

Why wouldn't Chairs just vote for me then? I can see an answer on the horizon already, that we're scumbuddies. Since I am not scum, I do wonder why Chairs is not voting for me over anyone else then. Chairs did say 'a' majority lynch, not 'the' majority lynch after all. We can't take that out of context.

scummier than chairs not voting Seprix.

Seprix: Would you mind pointing me to a finished scum game of yours?

[Witherweaver]

For clarity, majority means majority of players, so

L = ceil(num_current_players/2).

In today's case, L=9.

[Seprix]

Seprix: No, a plurality lynch is a thing here, doesn't have to be a majority.  We'd just rather it was a majority.

"a majority" vs. "the majority" seems like reaching for a scumslip that isn't there.

And yeah, I find this post:

Let's think about this.

Why wouldn't Chairs just vote for me then? I can see an answer on the horizon already, that we're scumbuddies. Since I am not scum, I do wonder why Chairs is not voting for me over anyone else then. Chairs did say 'a' majority lynch, not 'the' majority lynch after all. We can't take that out of context.

scummier than chairs not voting Seprix.

Just trying to understand what Chairs means.

Seprix: Would you mind pointing me to a finished scum game of yours?

It won't matter, I always play the same.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

It won't matter, I always play the same.

Okay, Awaclus.

Vote: Seprix

I'll find it on my own.  Town meta-read has seriously dissipated overnight.

[Seprix]

lol, kay. I don't care.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

lol, kay. I don't care.

You do realize that I was originally (lightly) defending you, right?

[Seprix]

lol, kay. I don't care.

You do realize that I was originally (lightly) defending you, right?

I'm as good as lynched today. I'm just accepting it, really. I guess better luck next time for me.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'm as good as lynched today. I'm just accepting it, really. I guess better luck next time for me.

This attitude is bad if you're town.  And actually it's probably bad if you're scum.  You have 7/9 votes, but mine at least could have been avoided.  The day's not over yet.

If you're never going to try though, yeah that's a really easy position to take as scum, and you're more harm than good as town anyway.  You're making yourself into  a win-win: scum we may as well lynch early so they can't hide there, or town we don't mind if we lose.

[Seprix]

I'm as good as lynched today. I'm just accepting it, really. I guess better luck next time for me.

This attitude is bad if you're town.  And actually it's probably bad if you're scum.  You have 7/9 votes, but mine at least could have been avoided.  The day's not over yet.

If you're never going to try though, yeah that's a really easy position to take as scum, and you're more harm than good as town anyway.  You're making yourself into  a win-win: scum we may as well lynch early so they can't hide there, or town we don't mind if we lose.

Well, what can I even say? Everyone's already made up their mind about me this game. I don't have any proof.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So I was originally thinking that Seprix was more overly-worried about pressure on him as scum and that he was seeming to react, well kind of poorly to it, but not quite as paranoid and fatalistic as he would if he were scum in this game.

But the way he's sure he's being lynched and doesn't want to help his own defense reads more like the fatalism and worry about pressure that I was initially thinking was a scum trait of his, admittedly based on too small a sample size.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'm as good as lynched today. I'm just accepting it, really. I guess better luck next time for me.

This attitude is bad if you're town.  And actually it's probably bad if you're scum.  You have 7/9 votes, but mine at least could have been avoided.  The day's not over yet.

If you're never going to try though, yeah that's a really easy position to take as scum, and you're more harm than good as town anyway.  You're making yourself into  a win-win: scum we may as well lynch early so they can't hide there, or town we don't mind if we lose.

Well, what can I even say? Everyone's already made up their mind about me this game. I don't have any proof.

The 9 people not voting for you (a majority, and that's not counting your own vote) hadn't made up their minds on you.  And no one ever has any proof.  What does that even mean?  Unless you are an Innocent Child (the PR), no one ever has any proof that they aren't scum on Day 1.

[Seprix]

Meh. I'll try to write a list of who I think is and isn't town later today. That could help.

[EFHW]

Let's think about this.

Why wouldn't Chairs just vote for me then? I can see an answer on the horizon already, that we're scumbuddies. Since I am not scum, I do wonder why Chairs is not voting for me over anyone else then. Chairs did say 'a' majority lynch, not 'the' majority lynch after all. We can't take that out of context.

scumbuddies is a possibility - mostly I think it's valuable to address contradictions like this.  If he wanted a majority lynch, and he liked you as scum more than XP, and seeing as you had the most votes at the time, why wouldn't he vote for you? Inquiring people want to know!

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Meh. I'll try to write a list of who I think is and isn't town later today. That could help.

Only if it has explainations.  If it's just a list it's absolutely useless, because if you're scum it's a mess of Wifom, and if you're town, well why should we trust your unexplained reads when you clearly weren't paying attention.

How about you talk about people on your wagon and why you think they're voting for you, and what you think of the other wagons.  Those are much better than a list.

[Twistedarcher]

Not really feeling the push for the e lynch.

Off the top of my head:
Scummy: xp
50/50: TA, silverspawn, seprix, hockey, hydrad, faust
Townie: gkrieg, chairs, UoS
Null: witherweaver, efhw, mail-mi, ichi, ghacob, egork

whats the difference between 50/50 and null?

[Twistedarcher]

Not sure how long I'll be around tomorrow and I want my vote somewhere useful. vote: seprix

Hey, hey, your vote was very useful on e!

so it was. honestly i'm fine with either. let me get the current vote count

[Witherweaver]

Not really feeling the push for the e lynch.

Off the top of my head:
Scummy: xp
50/50: TA, silverspawn, seprix, hockey, hydrad, faust
Townie: gkrieg, chairs, UoS
Null: witherweaver, efhw, mail-mi, ichi, ghacob, egork

whats the difference between 50/50 and null?

50/50 is a stronger scum read than null, unless half the players are scum.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Not really feeling the push for the e lynch.

Off the top of my head:
Scummy: xp
50/50: TA, silverspawn, seprix, hockey, hydrad, faust
Townie: gkrieg, chairs, UoS
Null: witherweaver, efhw, mail-mi, ichi, ghacob, egork

Cynicism mode:  50/50 means you've talked too much or been the subject of too much attention so he feels bad having no read on you.

whats the difference between 50/50 and null?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I am just terrible at quotes today:

Cynicism mode:  50/50 means you've talked too much or been the subject of too much attention so he feels bad having no read on you.

[EFHW]

mail-mi, egorK, Seprix and Hydrad - the wagons you are on seem unlikely to happen today.  Is there anyone among the current wagons you would consider moving your vote to?  Sitting on improbable wagons is an easy way to avoid committing yourselves to a vote.

[Twistedarcher]

I am just terrible at quotes today:

Cynicism mode:  50/50 means you've talked too much or been the subject of too much attention so he feels bad having no read on you.

Heh, that's probably true. Which is weird, cuz I don't think there's anything wrong with having null reads right now.

Seprix is flailing. I have no idea what kind of flailing though. He's scummy to me but I have more trouble putting my finger on his scumminess compared to e's scumminess. my head says e, my gut says seprix (but both say uos) i don't know which one i should trust more.

vote: 2.7

[2.71828.....]

Not really feeling the push for the e lynch.

Off the top of my head:
Scummy: xp
50/50: TA, silverspawn, seprix, hockey, hydrad, faust
Townie: gkrieg, chairs, UoS
Null: witherweaver, efhw, mail-mi, ichi, ghacob, egork

whats the difference between 50/50 and null?

50/50 people have more stuff I renege than null people. Like you. I had a town read on you, but then your most recent posts have not felt right. Like "switching to where your vote is useful" then going full hedge just now. Which makes me think scum. But I had that town read. So I am more conflicted about you.

Not as conflicted about some of the others (silverspawn being silverspawn. Flip a coin) but just more stuff is out about them and I don't know.

PPE: null is no read. 50/50 I have thought about and don't know. More likely to vote in the 50/50 section than the null