Sorry for rescuing this old threat, but I could not find anything better on this topic:
Playing with the ShuffleIT client for a while now, I realized that I have seen some cards quite more often than others. For instance, I remember playing 4 or 5 games with the teacher line and at least 5 with Goons. Given that I played maybe 100 games in this timeframe, the probability for such events to occur randomly seems to me rather low when I follow my intuition. But the mind is a curious thing and it has many biases, so I am interested in the statistics. I played almost exclusively against bots (so no purchase bias from other players), had all expansions active and all cards were set to familiar. As far as I know, ShuffIT picks the cards fully random.
So, for the statisticians out there:
- What is the probability for any given Supply Card to occur in any kingdom in general?
- What are the odds for a single card to occur in multiple matches?
- How many matches would you need to play in order to see all kingdom cards at least once?
- What is the likelihood that you get a kingdom which comes only from a single expansion?