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Author Topic: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (Town Wins!)  (Read 192552 times)

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1825 on: March 31, 2015, 05:22:13 pm »

Well wouldn't him arguing against the massclaim look bad?

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #1826 on: March 31, 2015, 05:30:32 pm »

Sorry I've been MIA.  We went to the dr yesterday, then to hospital, now I am a daddy.  I will ask to be replaced if possible.

Hooray!  When will Stools start playing Mafia?

Best joke ever.  Everyone go +1 a random WW post.
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1827 on: March 31, 2015, 05:31:08 pm »

I also agree with WW that faust is most likely not lying about his role.  I also agree that he is definitely scum with that role.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1828 on: March 31, 2015, 05:31:37 pm »

Well wouldn't him arguing against the massclaim look bad?

Maybe.  That's why I didn't, actually.

But, his very first post in the game was to vote for a massclaim.  It makes me think he considered it before, or immediately saw utility in it. 
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ashersky

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1829 on: March 31, 2015, 05:33:22 pm »

Well wouldn't him arguing against the massclaim look bad?

Maybe.  That's why I didn't, actually.

But, his very first post in the game was to vote for a massclaim.  It makes me think he considered it before, or immediately saw utility in it.

This is funny hedgy.

It also feels like you are making arguments for how faust could be scum while joseph is town.
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1830 on: March 31, 2015, 05:35:09 pm »

Well wouldn't him arguing against the massclaim look bad?

Maybe.  That's why I didn't, actually.

But, his very first post in the game was to vote for a massclaim.  It makes me think he considered it before, or immediately saw utility in it.

This is funny hedgy.

It also feels like you are making arguments for how faust could be scum while joseph is town.

Hm.. I wasn't considering scum Faust and Joseph town.  I'm considering Faust-Joseph partner and if it makes sense.  This is for purposes of answering the question: "Did they come up with those whole plan Night 0?"
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1831 on: March 31, 2015, 05:36:34 pm »

And Faust considering a massclaim before the game starts makes sense for town!Faust just as much as scum!Faust with the role he has (or claims  to have, but he probably has it~).
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1832 on: March 31, 2015, 05:54:04 pm »

Hm.. I wasn't considering scum Faust and Joseph town.  I'm considering Faust-Joseph partner and if it makes sense.  This is for purposes of answering the question: "Did they come up with those whole plan Night 0?"

I don't think they came up with a plan on Night 0, or if they did, it wasn't what actually happened.

I've been arguing (as you've all seen) that Joseph is scum for awhile, and by extension, that faust is scummy and probably a partner.  With results revealed today, that was solidified to 100% (from my perspective, since I know my alignment).  Obviously, town!faust (or scum!faust wanting to seem town) will say I'm scum 100% from his perspective.  That's the same for the theoretical scum!ash.

Now, could one be scum without the other?  Sure.  Is there a way both could be town?  Less possible.  But the evidence/occam's razor is so far against that, I just don't believe it.  To be thorough:

1)  Results/targeting manipulation.  This is the big unknown, right?  Like, what if another player (really, any other player) is lying about their role and targeted any one of us in a way that messed with results?  We've got:
     faust confirming Joseph's role name claim based on a Rolecop action
     ashersky saying Joseph took a manipulative action
I mean, that's the argument, right?  Joseph claims to have taken a double killing action, plus used an item, which I believe does not account for my result.  Ergo, I think Joseph is lying.  I'm adding that on to the rest of the case (odd claim, knife/bleeding thing, saying he tried to killed XP who was important to the plan, changing his claim when XP died too fast, etc.) to get to be absolutely convinced there.  Faust's defense of Joseph, and then his conveniently timed claim to save Joseph make him the partner.

I want to point out, because I think faust obfuscated this point: faust's result says nothing about my result.  It only confirms Joseph's claimed role name, which I've stated he could have already known from being partners.  Faust asked everyone to list their names (he could have been planning to say someone was lying about their role to get a mislynch, for all we know, but had to try to save Joseph instead.)

So manipulation by an outside party could result in me (or others) being wrong.  So I guess that's a worry for some?

I will say that faust made one good point -- I should want to lynch Joseph before faust regardless.  I was pretty upset overall, so I did let emotion override logic there, but we can't all be Spock.  The evidence is much, much firmer against Joseph.

The reasons for lynching faust include activating Ichi's power (if you think Ichi might be town and/or telling the truth about his power) and that he is the much more dangerous scum player.

The reason for lynching Joseph include the evidence being much stronger against him (relative to faust -- fore example, if Joseph is lynch and flips with the role name faust confirmed, he didn't actually lie).

Awaclus made good points on the preferablility of mislynches based on power and risk already.  I'd say the value of roles (if real) to town, not taking usage and reads into consideration, is Vig > Rolecop; but taking usage and reads up to now into consideration, Joseph is more dangerous than useful.
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1833 on: March 31, 2015, 06:04:38 pm »

Let me point out another thing: I believe everyone who's been scum with me recently can confirm (and others can look up old scum QTs) that I like to talk claims through at night. No way scum!me would have let scumpartner!Joseph claim he targeted Xerxes N1. Or really mess up a fakeclaim the way he did. That scenarion makes no sense if you have any idea about my scum meta.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1834 on: March 31, 2015, 06:06:49 pm »

that is kind of true. But Joseph pretty much got away with it.

phone post

faust

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #1835 on: March 31, 2015, 06:09:03 pm »

I'll repost this for relevance.

So let's run this through. What are the scenarios for scum!Joseph?

1. He actually has the role he claims (or some variant thereof)

First let me state that I think this unlikely because giving scum an extra kill is quite impossible to balance. But okay, let's for a moment work under the assumption that this is possible. What does he do last night? He targets Xerxes with it. I mean, it's conceivable that he lied about this, but really why? With roles confirming stuff, this is dangerous. So we'd have to assume he tells the truth about targeting Xerxes. This makes little sense for scum. Scum targets the player they attack? Why? It robs them off a night kill - and it doesn't even look good on them.
This case is hardly possible. Occam's razor tells us to dismiss it.

2. He lied about this role.

Okay. So he might have another role. This is something we can make sure I can uncover tonight, with little possibility of me dying. But I doubt even this is the case. I mean, what sort of super-crappy fakeclaim is this? If he lied, why claim to have targeted Xerxes? He did the night attack, and is afraid of being Tracked/Watched? There's no such role. Why claim something that in order to work needs help of some other player? Maybe to insinuate that someone is lying. But if this is the case, then why do a full turn before it even plays out? Sorry, but I don't really see this either.
Okay, so there's this chance that he has a role Poisoner that does something different. This would be extremely misleading, like close-to-bastard misleading. It's convention here that mafiascum names are mafiascum roles, and breaking that should at least be announced pregame. And Arch knows about Posioning, he used it in RMM11 I think.

So there's no conceivable scenario where Joseph is scum for me. Still, if you want to be really sure, I can check him tonight. But why would we lynch him? Makes zero sense to me.
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faust

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1836 on: March 31, 2015, 06:09:50 pm »

that is kind of true. But Joseph pretty much got away with it.

phone post

Yes, but that's not something you know beforehand. And he's been under a lot of pressure ever since then.
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Joseph2302

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1837 on: March 31, 2015, 06:11:22 pm »

that is kind of true. But Joseph pretty much got away with it.

phone post
I did, but a competent partner would surely have prepared me so I didn't make a mess.

Joseph is more dangerous than useful.
Unfortunately I'm tempted to agree. Although I'm actually town, my scum reads haven't been great, so I'm probably helping scum.

PPE: 2
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1838 on: March 31, 2015, 06:12:06 pm »

He has you to defend him though. He hasn't made that many direct responses to the accusations against him. Your right that the way his claim went down doesn't look like a coached scumclaim though.

ppe:1

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1839 on: March 31, 2015, 06:15:52 pm »

I am having a really, really hard time buying this scenario.

Is there any utility to lynching one the Governed e/Silverspawn?  It would either lynch scum or create an IC.  In the latter case they reset and I can choose a new target tonight.

In the case where they're town, it's forgoing a lynch which is not great.  Also, e is going to die anyway if Joseph is telling the truth. 
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faust

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1840 on: March 31, 2015, 06:18:38 pm »

One more thing to consider: Why would scum!me tie himself to Joseph the way I did? I mean, if you believe Joseph and me are scum, that would mean that chairs and e won't die, so most likely there would be another Day even if there's a mislynch today. So say we mislynch ash in that scenario. He flips town. Then Joseph/me are going down for sure. We need to rely on an unknown partner to carry us through to victory. That's not good, and it's only the best case scenario.

A scenario that makes more sense would be that me and Joseph are not partners, but via my powers, I figured out that Joseph is the other scum, and now I'm protecting him. But ash isn't making that argument, because he doesn't look at things from a town perspective.
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faust

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1841 on: March 31, 2015, 06:20:09 pm »

I am having a really, really hard time buying this scenario.

Is there any utility to lynching one the Governed e/Silverspawn?  It would either lynch scum or create an IC.  In the latter case they reset and I can choose a new target tonight.

In the case where they're town, it's forgoing a lynch which is not great.  Also, e is going to die anyway if Joseph is telling the truth.

I actually think lynching silver might not be the worst thing ever. But we'd need a plan to ensure we don't somehow get three night deaths.
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faust

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1842 on: March 31, 2015, 06:21:05 pm »

But actually scratch that. As long as I'm not sure you're town, I don't want to put the game into your hands.
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1843 on: March 31, 2015, 07:10:01 pm »

But actually scratch that. As long as I'm not sure you're town, I don't want to put the game into your hands.

Well no problem, let me ease your troubles: I'm town.
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1844 on: March 31, 2015, 08:08:44 pm »

A scenario that makes more sense would be that me and Joseph are not partners, but via my powers, I figured out that Joseph is the other scum, and now I'm protecting him.

That's a nice scenario.  Is it the true one?  I'm very much convinced you are partners, not unknowns.  If you want to say I'm not considering all angles, feel free, as everything you say is a scum lie and misdirection anyway.  It's clear you aren't reading my posts anyway.  I'm not sure why I'm reading yours.  I definitely hadn't planned on responding to any after Day 2.

But if you want to lay out how you and Joseph are both scum but not partners, by all means, go ahead.
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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1845 on: March 31, 2015, 11:34:56 pm »

I can see a town!joseph and scum!faust more than both of the being scum.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1846 on: March 31, 2015, 11:38:06 pm »

I can see a town!joseph and scum!faust more than both of the being scum.
I agree. At any rate, we'll lynch faust first and work from there. My scumread on faust doesn't require joseph to be scum.

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1847 on: March 31, 2015, 11:54:25 pm »

Also, I just drank a bottle of wine, so I wont be too useful for thinking about the game tonight.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1848 on: March 31, 2015, 11:59:46 pm »

Ok.

It's so hilarious how faust comes out with "we're probably in mylo now" after being such a huge supporter of keeping Joseph alive and having him use his power. e supported it too. If we are in mylo, that's frickin why.

WW can't get mad at me for taking credit for putting myself down as an ardent supporter of killing Joseph or at least not having him use his power--Ash was the one that originally pointed it out but no one paid attention to it. Of course this all assumes Joseph's power is what he says it is.

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Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D3!)
« Reply #1849 on: April 01, 2015, 12:03:38 am »

Also, I just drank a bottle of wine, so I wont be too useful for thinking about the game tonight.

But if anyone want s to know why i am town I can be sueful
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