Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 [29] 30 31 ... 92  All

Author Topic: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (Town Wins!)  (Read 192593 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5335
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #700 on: March 15, 2015, 03:59:08 pm »

So is the only way this could have happened is both scumteams going for XP then? Cause that seems kind of unlikely.
no, there could also be a killing role we don't know of. The setup is closed.

But if everyone claimed truthfully, then I think so. I don't think that's unlikely at all though - cop is just brutal for scum. honestly, it even makes me suspicious of the people who claimed that they would kill someone else in ash's WIFOM plan, because I have trouble believing that, and I do think scum is rather afraid to claim their real target.

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #701 on: March 15, 2015, 04:32:48 pm »

Uh, Joseph claimed a killing role, right?
Logged

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5335
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #702 on: March 15, 2015, 04:34:31 pm »

Uh, Joseph claimed a killing role, right?

yeah, but a delayed one. if he didn't lie, his target from this night should die during the next night

Ichimaru Gin

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 635
  • Interesting™
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #703 on: March 15, 2015, 04:36:50 pm »

Ok. I'm going to go through and take a look at each person's interactions and reads on Hydrad.

2.7: #497 Says he's not super excited about the Hydrad lynch--and isn't going to vote him. That's basically all he says about the Hydrad wagon. He makes the case on WW and seems to want to lynch him really bad. In light of Hydrad's flip, I'd say this is fairly scummy behavior.

ADK: #567 Says he really likes voting for Hydrad and tells everyone to vote him. Makes some points about SS switching off the Hydrad wagon. Except...he doesn't vote Hydrad later on and ends up leaving his vote on SS for the rest of the day. I was actually hasty in my earlier post because I thought he was voting Hydrad at the end; he wasn't. If he really had such a scumread on Hydrad, why not hammer?

Ashersky: #519 He says he doesn't like the Hydrad lynch and won't support it. He defends him and deflects from his wagon pretty consistently. I don't really like his "you had me fooled" at the end of the day either--it looks weird. I can easily see Ash as Hydrad's partner.

Awaclus: He votes Hydrad early, says he's scum--and keeps his vote on him until the end. I think it's very, very unlikely for Awaclus to be Hydrad's partner.

Faust: #522 begins his post with saying he "kind of wants to lynch Hydrad" and ends it with continuing to tunnel me.
         #614 he votes Hydrad putting him at L-2. And...that's where his vote stays. I think faust is a very unlikely partner for Hydrad.

Joseph2302: He also votes Hydrad about 3 irl days before and leaves his vote there. Another non-partner I would say.

silverspawn: Eh, he does hedge on Hydrad quite a bit. In his #654 He puts him to L-1 though. I think he's townie otherwise, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one--as I also felt misgivings about lynching Hydrad. Although him accusing me of being Hydrad's partner does weird me out a bit.

WW: Voted Hydrad early on, never changed his vote. Their interaction after Hydrad claimed scum looks genuine. I'm really not seeing him as a possible partner.

chairs: Hammered Hydrad--he had found him scummy earlier. I'm not seeing him as a partner.

Ichimaru Gin: Hedges on Hydrad a fair amount. There's some interesting interaction with SS warning him off the wagon and accusing him of trying to distract from it. He isn't on the final wagon, he says he thinks Hydrad's scummy a bunch of times and basically tells someone to hammer him. Is this how Ichi treats his partners? I'm thinking not.


I guess my analysis is mostly based on the assumption that Hydrad's partner didn't bus him. I think that's a fair assumption to make though. I've found that scum is normally pretty blatant in defending their partners. As such, I really want to lynch out of ADK/Ashersky/e today. A useful corollary to this would be to go back and look at Hydrad's interactions/reads and compare them to this. I might do that later if someone else doesn't. His major scumreads were myself, SS and XP if I remember correctly. Also, just because I put your name in green doesn't mean I think you're town--just that you're not Hydrad's partner. I actually think Ash is the scummiest after going through all this.

Ichimaru Gin

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 635
  • Interesting™
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #704 on: March 15, 2015, 04:40:42 pm »

Also. You can bet the other scumteam has their own ideas of who Hydrad's partner is--and they're going to do their best to defend and distract from that person. Losing one whole scumteam is pretty terrible for scum.

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #705 on: March 15, 2015, 05:12:43 pm »

I wasn't around very much at all near the end of the day. I felt like silver had distracted from the Hydrad lynch, so in my mind he's a plausible candidate for Hydrad's partner. I would also expect Hydrad's partner to be off-wagon.

The other team, I would probably expect one if not both were on-wagon. I'll have to think about it more but right now my lynch pool looks like, ash-e-awaclus-silver-chairs
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5335
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #706 on: March 15, 2015, 05:34:57 pm »

right, vote: ADK

I don't know if he's Hydrad's partner but I'm pretty sure he's scum.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5335
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #707 on: March 15, 2015, 05:35:17 pm »

so, doesn't anyone want to comment on the claiming thing?

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #708 on: March 15, 2015, 05:54:08 pm »

Well I have something.

I had the opportunity to use Hydrad's power last night.  I have no idea why.. mid night I got a message saying that I could use it.  So I did.  I targeted someone and found out whether or not they have been attacked.

However... I'm not sure if it at all helps us for me to say who I targeted and if they have been attacked.  It seems much better for scum to have this info. 
Logged

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D1!)
« Reply #709 on: March 15, 2015, 06:53:51 pm »

Okay. We need to find out whom Xerxes found scummiest. Awaclus did end up targeting chairs, meaning the redirection failed.
uh ... ... ? I thought Awaclus steals investigative results. Why should he target chairs? Also, how do you know this?

You're either bad at reading or bad at remembering.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #710 on: March 15, 2015, 06:56:05 pm »

Well I have something.

I had the opportunity to use Hydrad's power last night.  I have no idea why.. mid night I got a message saying that I could use it.  So I did.  I targeted someone and found out whether or not they have been attacked.

However... I'm not sure if it at all helps us for me to say who I targeted and if they have been attacked.  It seems much better for scum to have this info.

Well, if someone other than Xerxes has been attacked, that would be very interesting. Otherwise I think you just keep quiet.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #711 on: March 15, 2015, 08:02:33 pm »

right, vote: ADK

I don't know if he's Hydrad's partner but I'm pretty sure he's scum.

Neither!
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #712 on: March 15, 2015, 08:02:59 pm »

so, doesn't anyone want to comment on the claiming thing?

People should claim if they have something interesting to claim, otherwise keep quiet.
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5335
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #713 on: March 15, 2015, 08:29:01 pm »

so, doesn't anyone want to comment on the claiming thing?

People should claim if they have something interesting to claim, otherwise keep quiet.

Wasn't the point of the masslcaim to get as much knowledge out of night actions as possible? I was expecting us to claim all results.

though, if you all think it's better not to do that, I guess that's fine.

chairs

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 134
  • Why don't you have a seat over there...
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #714 on: March 15, 2015, 08:30:45 pm »

Well I have something.

I had the opportunity to use Hydrad's power last night.  I have no idea why.. mid night I got a message saying that I could use it.  So I did.  I targeted someone and found out whether or not they have been attacked.

However... I'm not sure if it at all helps us for me to say who I targeted and if they have been attacked.  It seems much better for scum to have this info.

Unless I'm completely off-base here, or there's an unexpected killing/attacking role that someone didn't claim (say, a Vigilante), XP was targetted by both Mafia teams and therefore nobody else could possibly have been attacked.  I think if you found out someone else had been attacked that would actually be really -really- interesting because it means that someone out there who isn't one of the Mafia teams can either attack or kill someone, and chose to use that power last night.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5335
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D1!)
« Reply #715 on: March 15, 2015, 08:35:43 pm »

Okay. We need to find out whom Xerxes found scummiest. Awaclus did end up targeting chairs, meaning the redirection failed.
uh ... ... ? I thought Awaclus steals investigative results. Why should he target chairs? Also, how do you know this?

You're either bad at reading or bad at remembering.

right, I forgot Awaclus was part of the cop plan

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #716 on: March 15, 2015, 08:40:22 pm »

So I agree.  I do not have confirmation that someone other than XP was attacked.  So that's all I'll probably say about that.

Joseph, does your ability count as "attacking"?
Logged

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #717 on: March 15, 2015, 09:05:37 pm »

Well I have something.

I had the opportunity to use Hydrad's power last night.  I have no idea why.. mid night I got a message saying that I could use it.  So I did.  I targeted someone and found out whether or not they have been attacked.

However... I'm not sure if it at all helps us for me to say who I targeted and if they have been attacked.  It seems much better for scum to have this info.

Unless I'm completely off-base here, or there's an unexpected killing/attacking role that someone didn't claim (say, a Vigilante), XP was targetted by both Mafia teams and therefore nobody else could possibly have been attacked.  I think if you found out someone else had been attacked that would actually be really -really- interesting because it means that someone out there who isn't one of the Mafia teams can either attack or kill someone, and chose to use that power last night.

So what do we make of the fact that both teams decided to attack XP? At first glance I would assume that it had to do with the plan to use his power, and the fact that it could out scum.
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #718 on: March 15, 2015, 11:15:10 pm »

Checking in to see what is happening.  If you guys want me to claim that is fine, but I don't have anything interesting to share.  I haven't been able to think too much about all that has happened (see VLA thread), but will check back in and can answer questions and stuff.  My girlfiriend flies back on Tuesday, and I will be able to concentrate more on the game
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #719 on: March 16, 2015, 02:37:11 am »

I can confirm someone didn't lie about their role (type).  I won't yet though, as I'd like to see how people treat that player today a compared to yesterday.

Amazed Hydrad was scum.  I really saw parallels to dune 2 hydrad which is why I was not voting him.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #720 on: March 16, 2015, 05:53:21 am »

Ichimaru Gin: Hedges on Hydrad a fair amount. There's some interesting interaction with SS warning him off the wagon and accusing him of trying to distract from it. He isn't on the final wagon, he says he thinks Hydrad's scummy a bunch of times and basically tells someone to hammer him. Is this how Ichi treats his partners? I'm thinking not.

I appreciate the analysis, but it does feel rather odd to preemptively defend yourself in a list like this.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #721 on: March 16, 2015, 06:09:48 am »

Looking at Xerxes' reads.

#80 votes ADK
#118 votes Ichi after his claim
#262 calls my analysis "manipulative". Votes for me.
#401 votes Hydrad
#538 says silver, IG, WW are all "making sense".
#539 Says he's okay with ADK
#544 I'm not quite sure what this is referring to. Does Xerxes suggest I'm Hydrad's partner?

Aaand... that's it. Well, this doesn't really look good for me, does it? Here's the player list:

2.7 - Xerxes never talks about him. Has been off wagon, so he would make sense as an investigation target.
A Drowned Kernel - very likely indeed. Xerxes seems to have a bit of a scum read. And he was off-wagon.
ashersky - redirecting Awaclus to an investigatve role would be bad I guess?
Awaclus - well, he could have redirected Awaclus to himself. But I'm unsre what would happen then. Does it create an infinite loop? Does it tear the fabric of space and time? I'm not sure I'd risk that.
Faust - me- Also, don't redirect to investigative roles applies here.
Joseph2302 - no way
Silverspawn - the making sense comment. Plus he decided Hydrad's fate.
Witherweaver - also "making sense", also a supporter of the Hydrad wagon
chairs - Redirecting to chairs is an interesting way for Xerxes to ensure he's not being manipulated.
Ichimaru Gin - less likely due to "making sense", but he was off-wagon.

Yeah, vote: ADK[/s]
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #722 on: March 16, 2015, 06:10:09 am »

Oops. vote: ADK
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D2!)
« Reply #723 on: March 16, 2015, 06:11:13 am »

Checking in to see what is happening.  If you guys want me to claim that is fine, but I don't have anything interesting to share.  I haven't been able to think too much about all that has happened (see VLA thread), but will check back in and can answer questions and stuff.  My girlfiriend flies back on Tuesday, and I will be able to concentrate more on the game

That's a weird thing to say for someone with a role like yours.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3386
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM23: Deus Ex Machina (D1!)
« Reply #724 on: March 16, 2015, 06:28:19 am »

ADK - IG - 2.7 - ash - chairs - silver - Awaclus - Joseph - WW - Xerxes - faust

I'm not sure how you reach this chain. Either you go with off-wagon first, but then you have to put yourself before chairs, or you go with lie detecting last, but then you'd have to claim way later. Also, I'm not sure ADK/Ichi should claim their targets at all (maybe Ichi claims his list of lynchees, but not the Doc target), since their roles both have effect on N2.

Here's a proposed list:

2.7 - chairs - Awaclus - Joseph - WW - IG (partially) - silver - ash - faust

Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 [29] 30 31 ... 92  All
 

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 21 queries.