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Author Topic: M58 : Flavorless mafia - Town wins !  (Read 125518 times)

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faust

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #500 on: February 12, 2015, 05:58:31 am »

Anyone there?
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Awaclus

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #501 on: February 12, 2015, 06:04:30 am »

I'm still here, and I still like the Joseph lynch.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #502 on: February 12, 2015, 06:13:58 am »

I'm around from now til the deadline. Phone post, will post content when I've loaded up my laptop. I
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #503 on: February 12, 2015, 06:36:43 am »

So, the reason why I claimed when I did was because if I claimed then, it was ~15 hours until deadline, meaning that people could think about it, consider other options carefully, and then decide on how to proceed. Like faust has been able to do. If I'd not done it, then I might have been lynched by now (Ichi clearly wanted me lynched if I didn't claim), or if I'd had to claim about now, then it's only ~5.5 hours until deadline, so everything is more of a rush.

The fact is that I'm VT, and so I'm still accepting of lynching me. That way we won't hit a PR, which would be bad. But I would like if possible to check that everyone on my wagon still wants to be there.
However, I still think we could hit scum, and I could go for a silverspawn lynch right now, since I haven't found him towny, so Vote: silverspawn.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #504 on: February 12, 2015, 06:43:29 am »

Joseph2302 (6): chairs, Awaclus, Ichimaru Gin, Seprix, silverspawn, A Drowned Kernel  {L-1}

Awaclus: likes his vote
Ichi: wants me lynched
Seprix: didn't change vote after I claimed
silverspawn: not around
ADK: voted for me after I claimed

So, the only people who could realistically jump off the wagon are Seprix or chairs. And it's possible neither of them will be around. Okay, I'm probably lynched then.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #505 on: February 12, 2015, 07:01:57 am »

Trying to do some maths now:

On average/expected value, there will be 3.5 PRs (a 3-shot cop and on average 2.5 other PRs), and an innocent Child.

There are 11 choices (minus me and IC), so if we pick randomly, P(hit PR)=3.5/11=31.8%
                                                                                         P(hit scum)=3/11=27.3%
                                                                                         P(hit VT)=4.5/11=40.9%
So, there's a slightly higher chance of hitting PR. But, if people think their scum, it could increase the chance that they're actually scum.
I think lynching me is the safe option, as we definitely won't hit PR.
Trying to lynch someone else is a riskier option, but could have really good rewards.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Teproc

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #506 on: February 12, 2015, 07:08:21 am »

Just a heads up that I'm going out now and will only be back around deadline, but if a lynch happens in the meantime, expect a long twilight.
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faust

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #507 on: February 12, 2015, 07:20:59 am »

I'm still here, and I still like the Joseph lynch.

Fine, have it your way. Vote: Awaclus
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silverspawn

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #508 on: February 12, 2015, 07:43:29 am »

I'm still here, and I still like the Joseph lynch.

Fine, have it your way. Vote: Awaclus
I'll sheep that

vote: Awaclus

I really don't like it if you vote me fyi

Awaclus

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #509 on: February 12, 2015, 08:02:10 am »

I'm a vanilla townie. Joseph is obviously scum, we should lynch him.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #510 on: February 12, 2015, 08:03:51 am »

Will be here before 11 (an hour before deadline), but probably not at deadline. 

Awaclus is a good choice.
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Awaclus

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #511 on: February 12, 2015, 08:05:06 am »

Awaclus is a bad choice.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #512 on: February 12, 2015, 08:09:05 am »

Awaclus claimed VT, so from my perspective, lynching him cannot be worse than lynching me. Vote: Awaclus.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Witherweaver

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #513 on: February 12, 2015, 08:11:33 am »

Awaclus claimed VT, so from my perspective, lynching him cannot be worse than lynching me. Vote: Awaclus.

.....

If you're town, you know you are, but you don't know Awaclus is...
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Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #514 on: February 12, 2015, 08:13:48 am »

Awaclus claimed VT, so from my perspective, lynching him cannot be worse than lynching me. Vote: Awaclus.

.....

If you're town, you know you are, but you don't know Awaclus is...
No but if I'm town, then if Awaclus is scum, lynching him is good. If he's VT, then it's got the same value as lynching me, and if he's PR then it's bad. But I think PR claiming VT is bad claim, so he wouldn't do it.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Awaclus

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #515 on: February 12, 2015, 08:33:56 am »

Awaclus claimed VT, so from my perspective, lynching him cannot be worse than lynching me. Vote: Awaclus.

.....

If you're town, you know you are, but you don't know Awaclus is...
No but if I'm town, then if Awaclus is scum, lynching him is good. If he's VT, then it's got the same value as lynching me, and if he's PR then it's bad. But I think PR claiming VT is bad claim, so he wouldn't do it.

If you're town. As it is, you're scum and lynching me is good anyway because I'm town.
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silverspawn

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #516 on: February 12, 2015, 08:35:38 am »

of course you would claim to be town if you were scum.

Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #517 on: February 12, 2015, 08:38:38 am »

of course you would claim to be town if you were scum.
Yes obviously.
Awaclus claimed VT, so from my perspective, lynching him cannot be worse than lynching me. Vote: Awaclus.

.....

If you're town, you know you are, but you don't know Awaclus is...
No but if I'm town, then if Awaclus is scum, lynching him is good. If he's VT, then it's got the same value as lynching me, and if he's PR then it's bad. But I think PR claiming VT is bad claim, so he wouldn't do it.

If you're town. As it is, you're scum and lynching me is good anyway because I'm town.
But I'm actually town. So lynching you, a VT or scum, is not bad.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

silverspawn

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #518 on: February 12, 2015, 08:59:14 am »

oh, I was talking to Awaclus

EgorK

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #519 on: February 12, 2015, 09:01:41 am »

Mmm. How much on Awaclus and how much on Joseph?

I finally worked through all things happened during my vacation so will now have time
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Awaclus

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #520 on: February 12, 2015, 09:03:45 am »

Mmm. How much on Awaclus and how much on Joseph?

I finally worked through all things happened during my vacation so will now have time

I think I'm at L-3 and Joseph is at L-2.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #521 on: February 12, 2015, 09:04:45 am »

oh, I was talking to Awaclus
Oh okay. Although it is true of me also.

Mmm. How much on Awaclus and how much on Joseph?

I finally worked through all things happened during my vacation so will now have time

I think I'm at L-3 and Joseph is at L-2.
I'm at L-1, unless anyone's unvoted from me.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #522 on: February 12, 2015, 09:07:47 am »

Last vote count:
Vote Count 1.13

Joseph2302 (6): chairs, Awaclus, Ichimaru Gin, Seprix, silverspawn, A Drowned Kernel  {L-1}
Awaclus (2): Witherweaver, Hydrad
Since then, faust, silverspawn I have voted Awaclus, putting him on 5 (L-2).
As silverspawn was voting me, I also have 5 votes (L-2).
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Witherweaver

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #523 on: February 12, 2015, 09:08:08 am »

I think it might be 5 on Awaclus  My and Hydrad were on last vote count, and then I think there were three more.  So that would be L-2.

PPE
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EgorK

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Re: M58 : Flavorless mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #524 on: February 12, 2015, 09:16:12 am »

Between 2 of them I would Vote: Awaclus

I would vote for Joseph would he claim PR for reasons
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