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Author Topic: Power Levelling Guide  (Read 16621 times)

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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #50 on: January 17, 2015, 11:36:26 am »
+1

This is where I pretty strongly disagree. I think there's an overwhelming amount of evidence that the prevailing common wisdom of "how to learn Dominion strategy" isn't working. There are too many mediocre players. The median skill on Iso is Level 12. That should not be the case if the prevailing teaching methods were effective. I consider myself a "very slightly above average" Dominion player. But according to the leaderboards, I am a somewhere around a "Top 10% player". And back when I was playing more regularly, I was a "Top 5% player".

It just doesn't make sense to me that after two months of playing, and using fairly simplistic heuristics, that I could somehow be THAT good. I highly doubt that I am some kind of prodigy or savant. My initial conclusion was simply that Dominion was a broken, solved game. But after playing several matches against elite, top-tier players, it became clear that this was not the case. So the only other reasonable conclusion I could think of was that the way people are learning Dominion skills right now is flawed and highly ineffective.

My method might not be the best one, but I think its a decent start at improving upon something that clearly isn't working.

It's just a thing people have to do inside their own heads. You have to pay attention to the games, identify what leads to wins and what leads to losses. Avoid the losing things and do the winning things. It's as dumb as that. This is what I did while levelling up (and still do today):
- Deride myself when I made obviously dumb play errors or missed auto-wins
- Learn the power cards/strategies and learn the roles that the different cards play in various decks
- Think about games after they're over (mock yourself if you played stupid). Consider decision points where you were unsure, if you had gone a different direction how would the outcome have been different?
- Honestly evaluate the probabilities of the outcomes in the game (Were my shuffles super lucky?)
- Practice extrapolating from past games to new boards. You can be both conservative and experimental! If everything on the board points to a particular engine, I would give it a try confident that it could beat BM, even if I hadn't played this particular engine.
- Actually read the logs from game reports (or your own logs). Turn by turn. Construct both players decks in your head and consider what each one is capable of at different points in the game. Always look for mistakes in their play.
- Watch WW play on Youtube, do all the stuff you do for your own games. Identify mistakes, think about the likelihood of outcomes. Think about how you would open on the boards. If he says something is terrible but he loses to it, think about whether it's actually terrible. Maybe you'll learn something that even a pro isn't seeing.
- Go for Duke. When I started on isotropic, going for Duke was often an auto-win in the upper 20s/low 30s levels. It was really weird. Like playing the bots today.

All those people who suck at Dominion don't suck because "common wisdom" about how to improve is bad. They suck because they aren't trying to get better at Dominion. Winning isn't their focus. They don't change how they are playing. They continue to pick strategies and build their decks in pseudo random fashion, either based on the cards they like or who knows what (maybe the weather?). Many of those vast masses probably aren't exposed to "conventional" Domininion strategy tips (or Dominion Strategy) at all. You can read hilarious posts by some of these people on Reddit, BGG, and occasionally on these very forums. They are stubborn about what strategies are good, but they haven't got a clue, and they won't change.

These people aren't committed to winning, and that's perfectly okay, they should play in whatever way gives them enjoyment. But it's not right to hold them up as evidence of some failed teaching by Dominion Strategy. Some people are not willing to do the mental work necessary to improve.

Your heuristics are a mixed bag of good and bad advice, but someone who starts out with them can of course get better if they pay attention and learn the cases where they work or don't work. Which is exactly what you've done I'm sure. There's no other way to improve. When I started playing on iso I more or less instantly reached upper 20s level. But I wasn't magic either, I just tried to win! It took a lot more games to reach the top. Plenty of people have reached high levels of play without using your heuristics at all (some faster than you and some slower). It's way more likely that the important factor is yourself! You aren't unique, but if you're willing to change how you play at all you can expect to reach iso levels 20-30.

TL;DR: what Awaclus said.
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liopoil

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #51 on: January 17, 2015, 12:42:53 pm »
0

Getting beat really badly because you chose the wrong strategy is the best way to improve. It means you found a large flaw in your dominion ability that you won't make again. The first time you get beat because your opponent got ambassador and you didn't goes a long way. Obviously it becomes harder and harder to find kingdoms where you play it completely wrong, but whenever you do get crushed, make sure you understand what your opponent did and why.
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Flip5ide

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #52 on: January 17, 2015, 01:16:44 pm »
+1

Why are we ripping apart this guy's post (or attempting to)? Seriously?
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TheExpressicist

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #53 on: January 17, 2015, 01:25:39 pm »
0

A few notes, then a concession:

WW and Awalcus: I realize the relativity of using median level, but that was kinda what I was getting at. Even if you say that the average level of an f.ds regular is 26, that means I'm better than 50% of them which I just don't think *should* be the case. Given that, even still I play according to fairly simplistic rules and tend to freeze up when things don't go according to plans

That's really where the impetus behind this post came from; resolving the question of "Why are there so many players worse than myself?" The overwhelming response to that seems to be, "A lot of people just aren't really trying to get better." Which, I will admit, I didn't really consider. For those people, these posts of mine will at best, be ignored, and at worst, followed to the letter and thus contribute to the problem.

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TheExpressicist

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #54 on: January 17, 2015, 01:30:07 pm »
0

Why are we ripping apart this guy's post (or attempting to)? Seriously?

The general sense that I've been getting is something along these lines: "Dominion is too complicated of a game to be reduced to a simple set of rules, and we get very very annoyed when an unestablished player comes along and starts undoing the advice we've been giving out for years, which is: X, Y, and Z."

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Awaclus

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #55 on: January 17, 2015, 01:41:08 pm »
0

Why are we ripping apart this guy's post (or attempting to)? Seriously?

Because it's useful.

WW and Awalcus: I realize the relativity of using median level, but that was kinda what I was getting at. Even if you say that the average level of an f.ds regular is 26, that means I'm better than 50% of them which I just don't think *should* be the case.

I was under the impression that it was higher. I don't have any actual data on this, though, just a feeling, so I could certainly be wrong.

Why are we ripping apart this guy's post (or attempting to)? Seriously?

The general sense that I've been getting is something along these lines: "Dominion is too complicated of a game to be reduced to a simple set of rules, and we get very very annoyed when an unestablished player comes along and starts undoing the advice we've been giving out for years, which is: X, Y, and Z."



That's not really true. You're not undoing advice that we've been giving, you're attempting to argue that your contradictory advice is not completely bad. Also, we don't get very very annoyed when an unestablished player comes along and says something groundbreaking, if what he's saying is actually useful.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 01:57:28 pm by Awaclus »
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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #56 on: January 17, 2015, 01:48:19 pm »
+2

I feel like this thread is going to get really interesting aaaaanyyyy tiiiiiime now.
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TheExpressicist

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #57 on: January 17, 2015, 02:29:58 pm »
0

@Awaclus: My post was made under the assumption that there's a sufficiently large group of people out there who are mediocre, and trying to get better. If either is untrue, then you are right, nothing in my post will be useful.

As I mentioned above, I hadn't really given any thought to the idea that many/most of these people arent trying to get better. I don't think there's any real way to conclusively prove this one way or the other, so there's really no reason to argue this point. It's an explanation I hadn't considered, and if it's true it renders this post (and most of this forum) moot.

What I *am* interested in exploring is what the actual median or average skill level of a f.ds poster is. Because THAT is provable, AND the answer says a lot about just how effective this forum is as a teaching tool. So here's what I'm going to do: to the best of my ability, I am going to pull a list of the Goko usernames of N f.ds posters. (We'll put a minimum of, say, 50 posts, 50 games).

I'll find the weighted and unweighted mean and median. (If possible for shits and giggles I'll see if there's a correlation between post count and Level). Given that my entire premise is based on the idea that "I am much higher on the leaderboards than I feel that I should be", I will promptly hush up if it turns out this premise is wrong.
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Ratsia

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #58 on: January 17, 2015, 03:00:14 pm »
0

What I *am* interested in exploring is what the actual median or average skill level of a f.ds poster is. Because THAT is provable, AND the answer says a lot about just how effective this forum is as a teaching tool.
That's a rather strong assumption as well. I would certainly count as f.ds poster, but I do not typically read the strategy discussions, individual match threads, the strategy articles, etc. In other words, I am not here to become a better Dominion player (and I have zero interest in that anyway), but instead I just want to keep updated on what's happening in the Dominion world, I want to see how a community built around a single game thinks about games in general, and I actually like reading the RSP forum because of the funny US-centric content there.

Also, even if I were here to learn more about Dominion you still could not attribute my (mediocre) skill to the forum. By the time I joined, I had already been playing Dominion for years and had even won a national championship title, and quite likely similar story holds for a lot of people -- they come here because they have played Dominion a lot, instead of first coming here and then playing a lot. How could you tell how much of their current skills would be because of the forum?
« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 03:34:52 pm by Ratsia »
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eHalcyon

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #59 on: January 17, 2015, 03:00:42 pm »
+3

I will promptly hush up if it turns out this premise is wrong.

There's no need to hush up.  Nobody should feel discouraged from discussion as long as they are open to discussion.

And I don't think the points have been torn apart.  I think the general ideas of playing against better players, observing their choices and getting a handle on a baseline (Big Money) are all fine things to do.  I just think that the copycat section doesn't work at all, even on a theoretical level.  Part of the premise I disagreed with was that the article seems targeted at people who are (1) bad at Dominion who are (2) trying to improve but (3) can't rationally acknowledge their own mistakes.  I think 2 and 3 are contradictory.  If you are trying to improve, you have already acknowledged that you have more to learn, which necessarily means that you make mistakes.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 03:01:54 pm by eHalcyon »
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #60 on: January 17, 2015, 03:01:04 pm »
+1

What I *am* interested in exploring is what the actual median or average skill level of a f.ds poster is. Because THAT is provable, AND the answer says a lot about just how effective this forum is as a teaching tool. So here's what I'm going to do: to the best of my ability, I am going to pull a list of the Goko usernames of N f.ds posters. (We'll put a minimum of, say, 50 posts, 50 games).

I'll find the weighted and unweighted mean and median. (If possible for shits and giggles I'll see if there's a correlation between post count and Level). Given that my entire premise is based on the idea that "I am much higher on the leaderboards than I feel that I should be", I will promptly hush up if it turns out this premise is wrong.

This is also not sound reasoning, as a large number of f.dsers don't play Dominion competitively either. They are members here to play forum games, participate in random threads, make fan cards, do puzzles, get Dominion news, or just talk about Dominion related stuff. The community is called "Dominion Strategy", but there's not as much strategy as you might think (which is one reason why the community isn't dead!)

It's also worth mentioning that there is no "f.DS approved course of study for levelling up at Dominion." This forum is NOT a teaching tool for how to level up at Dominion. Some small subsections of it are devoted to strategy articles and/or game reports and help. And some even smaller portion of that consists of actual correct advice from people who know what they are talking about.

The only way to get better is to think about and play Dominion! It happens inside a person's head and no amount of strategy articles can do that for anyone.
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TheExpressicist

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #61 on: January 17, 2015, 05:09:42 pm »
0

Mic and Ratsia: Let me be clear; I absolutely would not interpret a positive result "in my favor" as proof of my premise. The point of doing the test is to attempt to disprove my own premise. If it turns out that the average level of f.ds members is higher than X, that categorically disproves the premise I based the post on.

If it turns out to be lower than X, well, that doesn't prove much, as you both pointed out. But I'm not trying to use this to prove my premise; it's not good science to devise one highly specific test and hold that up as proof.
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TheExpressicist

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #62 on: January 17, 2015, 05:18:00 pm »
0

I will promptly hush up if it turns out this premise is wrong.

There's no need to hush up.  Nobody should feel discouraged from discussion as long as they are open to discussion.

And I don't think the points have been torn apart.  I think the general ideas of playing against better players, observing their choices and getting a handle on a baseline (Big Money) are all fine things to do.  I just think that the copycat section doesn't work at all, even on a theoretical level.  Part of the premise I disagreed with was that the article seems targeted at people who are (1) bad at Dominion who are (2) trying to improve but (3) can't rationally acknowledge their own mistakes.  I think 2 and 3 are contradictory.  If you are trying to improve, you have already acknowledged that you have more to learn, which necessarily means that you make mistakes.

For me it's not about being discouraged, it's about being intellectually honest with myself. You all presented an alternate explanation to my observations. And there's a fairly easy to run test which would disprove my premise and I don't have any interest in continuing to believe something that's not true.

I agree with your second paragraph. I already updated the "copy cat" section and intend to re write it completely once I run that test.
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TheExpressicist

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #63 on: January 17, 2015, 10:10:56 pm »
0

Sample Size: 95 Players
Average Level: 31.25*
Median Level: 34
Weighted Average Level**: 35.73

*Standard Deviation: 10.16
**(Sum(Individual Games Played*Individual Level))/(Total Games Played)

So there it is, then. I'll leave the original posts up for posterity's sake but I'm pretty comfortable at this point saying that my initial premise was flawed and people reading the original posts should take them with a pretty big grain of salt.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 10:19:55 pm by TheExpressicist »
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Davio

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #64 on: January 18, 2015, 03:26:33 am »
+1

So we can just conclude that good players play more often?
That makes sense.

I mean, Dominion doesn't have super secret strategies, you just have to try a lot of different things and see what works and what doesn't. The only thing you have tp lose is a few rating point and you shouldn't care about rating at all.

Learning in Dominion is mostly about pattern recognition (a lot of boards play in a similar manner) and looking at every board without bias. If you always ignore Coppersmith because it's supposed to be a bad card, you'll miss the times when it's good!

Every card has an inherent base strength which gets modified by the presence of other cards to give them a relative strength for a given board. Smithy's base strength is probably higher than Moat's, but the presence of nasty attacks can give Moat a higher relative strength.

Then there is the concept of gravity. Strategies on a board tend to gravitate towards the cards (or combination of cards) which have the highest relative strength. You can throw in cards with lower relative strength, but your strategy revolves around the most powerful cards. Having both Apothecary and Wishing Well on a board ups the strength of both for example, but that doesn't mean you can't throw in a Mountebank which has a high raw (and thus also often relative) strength.

Let's construct a simple kingdom, starting with 0 cards, assigning relative strength on a scale from 0 (useless) to 10 (superduperpowerful).

I will add Village, and it has a relative strength of pretty close to 0.
Okay, now I will add a Smithy and both Smithy's and Village's relative strength will rise to like 5.
Let's add Nomad Camp, hey everyone's relative strength goes up again! Villages and Smithies love each other and Nomad Camp loves big hands to spend its +Buy on.
As we keep adding powerful action cards, the relative strength of plain Treasures, which starts out pretty high, will drop as well.

Like the kingdom, your deck also has a base strength (how well you would do in solitaire) and a relative strength (how well it is suited to beat your opponent's deck). So you might take your default Rebuild deck and get 4 Provinces in 11 turns in solitaire. But then you go up against a super engine and lose in 10 turns.


There are a lot of variables in Dominion and they all have their use in making good decisions about what to do and what to get. Some are very important (which cards are powerful on this board) and some are not so important (whether you start with Necropolis/Overgrown Estate instead of Necropolis/Hovel), but they all count!
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werothegreat

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #65 on: January 18, 2015, 07:26:26 pm »
0

I'd like to defend my probably abysmal rating by saying I don't play pro games very often on Goko.  I tend to either spend my Dominion time introducing new players, diving into theory, or obsessively editing and adding to the wiki.
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jomini

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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #66 on: January 28, 2015, 06:57:14 pm »
0

Playing great players is overrated.


Great players show you strong combos:
When I was back testing a new combo (Masq/Cutpurse/Village x2/Gainer) I went on isotropic and used a name that said I was playing pin games with a half-selected deck. I played up and down the ladder and it worked insanely well because it was a crazy combo that few people had seen. However, the odds getting any two card combo are freakishly small, playing ANY specific combo well is unlikely to net you more than 1 additional win in a hundred. I've designed all manner of pin decks (its a hobby) and I've even seen strong players use some of the less obvious ones (Masq/Kc/Outpost). Learning this combo from a strong player won't win that many games for you.

Great players show how to time buys:
You lack a lot of information that the great player has to determine why he buys what when. He opens Death Cart/Silver intending to do something with Altar, but instead gets an early Plat and keeps his Death cart. Or he buys something expecting you to make a much stronger play at some point and you make a poor one; now a lot of his optimization is rendered moot because you just made a bad play that gives him a far easier path to victory than what he had in mind. I mean I cannot count the number of times where I start tanking my deck because my opponent is setting up to go Possession, and they do something vastly worse. I could have won a lot sooner & with a wider margin, but I made decisions predicated on the cards the opponent shows & they go down a suboptimal path.

Great players show how to react:
A lot of boards do have dominant strats if they aren't contested at all. On no trashing boards cursing is very often dominant. If you do your thing to see how your opponent reacts, you may well encounter them basically ignoring you.

The big thing you need to do is figure out how to think for yourself. Ask questions - how many villages do I need? Which village is better for me? When would card X be strong when it is normally weak (e.g. Transmute is good when you are already going Pool and you whiffed on Pool)? Most of the great players have a crapton of tacit knowledge in my experience and that just doesn't translate by mimicry or reading their opinions. Go out and experience it yourself, if you play enough you are bound to get relatively good.

Anybody who reads the boards can rise in rank. The number of times I taken a Guest account above 5K is laughable. You don't need a guide to play the best (even when they refuse to welcome new folks to the game) and you certainly can just plug away with Guest accounts if you really want to get the odd streak dropping you into exalted territory where you can play your idols.



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Re: Power Levelling Guide
« Reply #67 on: January 29, 2015, 01:06:59 am »
+1

Declaimer: All I read of this thread was the red writing on the OP and a couple skimmed messages on the last page.

wow. "the average Iso level of a f.ds poster is somewhere around 32" 
average.
Apparently, I'm really really bad compared to just about everyone here. (Iso level -1) Of course, not playing pro very often has a lot to do with that, but I tend to think of Iso level 10+ as a great player because the highest I've ever gotten mine is level 1*.
It's not that I don't try to get better, but getting better is secondary to having fun -including playing opponents that I have some chance of beating.

(*I've gotten mint to level 9, but that was with Altoids to help.)
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