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[EFHW]

My question wasn't framed as one, actually.  I just don't see where he said it was a fake.  Looking at his supporters isn't helping much.  I have to have dinner now, so I'll be back later.

[pacovf]

We will decide how well protected we want the IC to be, and the respective protection chance per 1-shot doctor, day by day.

Scum can calculate how well protected XP is, but they don't know how well protected he will be in the future, because we haven't taken that decision yet.

You gave the percentages for every day.  Or were those made up?

As 1-shot doctors die, how will we know if they protected or not?  Same for living docs?  How will that lack of public info affect how you determine the percentage threshold?

I didn't give percentages for every day...?

Whether a 1-shot doctor had protected or not before s/he died is irrelevant: s/he's dead, s/he can't protect anymore. They will be ignored in the calculations.
Living 1-shot doctors will be attributed odds that they still have their shot, based on the odds of protecting from the previous day(s).

Anyway, we can talk this out (in detail... if needed...) when new days roll in. Not that useful to discuss right now.

My read was based on everything he's done since the beginning of the game.

Are you voting, EFHW?

No.  I have my usual Day 1 indecisiveness.  I don't feel great about the Awaclus thing - his making it up and people saying he must be town because of it.  I guess because I've played a bunch of games with Robz.  I've been waiting for his answer to my last question, but I can look over his supporters in the meantime.

You are simplifying what Awaclus did, and how he did it. Also, Awaclus is a relative newbie, he is not Robz.

My question wasn't framed as one, actually.  I just don't see where he said it was a fake.  Looking at his supporters isn't helping much.  I have to have dinner now, so I'll be back later.

Wuh? What does this mean?

[ashersky]

Ok, whatever.

You seem especially sure scum won't shoot anyway.

My final post on this then is to say if you truly believe in that plan and you are town, don't use your power, whatever it is, on XP.

If you trust in the probability gods so much, just trust they won't let scum shoot.

[pacovf]

Are you still happy with your vote on Awaclus, by the way?

[pacovf]

Oh, and also:

My final post on this then is to say if you truly believe in that plan and you are town, don't use your power, whatever it is, on XP.

Don't. Just... don't.

[EFHW]

You are simplifying what Awaclus did, and how he did it. Also, Awaclus is a relative newbie, he is not Robz.

My question wasn't framed as one, actually.  I just don't see where he said it was a fake.  Looking at his supporters isn't helping much.  I have to have dinner now, so I'll be back later.

Wuh? What does this mean?

Someone is going to have to explain it to me, I guess.  I was focused on all the math stuff, and didn't take the time to try to decrypt what his plan supposedly was.  Good thing, I guess, since there was no plan. I said looking at his supporters wasn't helping b/c they are either townreads or null, and his one detractor, silverspawn, is more of a scum read. 

Also, the "EFHW doing stuff" post insinuates that I have been inactive.  That's not how I feel.  There are stretches of time when I am unavailable, but I try to respond to everything important when I sign back on.  Today I actually think I've been kind of superficial in comparison to previously. 

[EFHW]

Can we have a vote count please?

[pacovf]

The "EFHW doing stuff" was meant to say that you were kicking things back into motion after the "end of theory talk" lull.

I will not explain Awaclus plan because it is not for me to make that decision. Awaclus can if he wants to, but I don't think he should.

Who are your town reads and your scum reads, then?

[EFHW]

The "EFHW doing stuff" was meant to say that you were kicking things back into motion after the "end of theory talk" lull.

I will not explain Awaclus plan because it is not for me to make that decision. Awaclus can if he wants to, but I don't think he should.

Who are your town reads and your scum reads, then?

towny: pacovf, ashersky, Hydrad, EFHW, XP
null: Witherweaver, Awaclus, faust, sudgy, chairs
scummy: silverspawn, Ichimaru Gin, ADK

[pacovf]

Any reason for ADK?

[EFHW]

He's voting me for no reason and hasn't contributed very much.

[EFHW]

what was your reason for silverspawn again?  That he's not being weird?

[pacovf]

Sorta. He reads much more like he was in aSoIaF Mafia than any other game (he was scum in that game).

[pacovf]

He also kinda disappeared after theory talk was over... but that could just be real life intruding.

[XerxesPraelor]

Ok, whatever.

You seem especially sure scum won't shoot anyway.

My final post on this then is to say if you truly believe in that plan and you are town, don't use your power, whatever it is, on XP.

If you trust in the probability gods so much, just trust they won't let scum shoot.

You realize this is scummy.

[A Drowned Kernel]

He's voting me for no reason and hasn't contributed very much.

I got lost in the theory talk. And my reason for voting for you was that I perceived that you weren't contributing much.

I also kind of like pacovf's point on Silverspawn. I'd vote there.

[sudgy]

We will decide how well protected we want the IC to be, and the respective protection chance per 1-shot doctor, day by day.

Scum can calculate how well protected XP is, but they don't know how well protected he will be in the future, because we haven't taken that decision yet.

You gave the percentages for every day.  Or were those made up?

As 1-shot doctors die, how will we know if they protected or not?  Same for living docs?  How will that lack of public info affect how you determine the percentage threshold?

It doesn't matter if a dead doc used to have a shot or not, they don't now.

[sudgy]

Oops, pacovf already said that.

[scott_pilgrim]

Vote Count 1.6:

Witherweaver (5): faust, Hydrad, Awaclus, Ichimaru Gin, EFHW
ashersky (1): XerxesPraelor
Awaclus (2): silverspawn, ashersky
sudgy (1): chairs
silverspawn (1): pacovf
EFHW (2): ADK, Witherweaver

Not Voting (1): sudgy

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 8:00 p.m. on January 29, 2015.

[pacovf]

@Scotty: EFHW is not voting.

Anything else you want to contribute, Sudgy?

I also kind of like pacovf's point on Silverspawn. I'd vote there.

What's preventing you from doing so, then?

[pacovf]

Who thinks WW is scummy, by the way? I'm sort of torn on him.

[scott_pilgrim]

@Scotty: EFHW is not voting.

Thanks; correct vote count:

Vote Count 1.6.5:

Witherweaver (4): faust, Hydrad, Awaclus, Ichimaru Gin
ashersky (1): XerxesPraelor
Awaclus (2): silverspawn, ashersky
sudgy (1): chairs
silverspawn (1): pacovf
EFHW (2): ADK, Witherweaver

Not Voting (2): sudgy, EFHW

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 8:00 p.m. on January 29, 2015.

[silverspawn]

He also kinda disappeared after theory talk was over... but that could just be real life intruding.

Yeah, I actually don't have that much free time these days. very unusual.

I don't think I've been very useful this game though, so I'm surprised that I feel similar to ASoIaFM to you.

Anyway, yeah, I don't think Awaclus plan should give him town points, at all. The scum narrative for doing is is to make town go through with the color plan, and there is basically no drawback for trying. So, as far as I can see, it's a better narrative than town!Awaclus has. I also don't really see why it would be so much harder for Awaclus to come up with it if he was scum.

So, I'll keep my vote on him. The other player I kind of feel not so great about is ADK, because of how he switched opinions during theory talk.

[ashersky]

Vote: pacovf

[faust]

Dice plan clarification from math heads, please.

If we can collectively figure the odds the IC is protected each night, can scum also do the same to learn the odds the IC won't be protected?

If yes, can't they just wait for the best odds and shoot that night, not wasting there time any other night?

What we do in the future heavily depends on how the game goes (do we lynch scum? Does scum kill? How many 1-shot Docs are alive?). Scum doesn't know that, so it's hard to plan ahead.