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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 175799 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2100 on: November 04, 2014, 06:47:41 pm »

Well that... okay.

Not sure why Ash shot Faust though.  Wouldn't he have a better chance of winning by shooting me?  He wins on endgame with him+mafia, right?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2101 on: November 04, 2014, 07:14:29 pm »

vote: witherweaver obviously.

I'm super surprised by this.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2102 on: November 04, 2014, 07:14:58 pm »

Well that... okay.

Not sure why Ash shot Faust though.  Wouldn't he have a better chance of winning by shooting me?  He wins on endgame with him+mafia, right?

Because why would I shoot faust?  Because I'm not the SK.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2103 on: November 04, 2014, 07:16:12 pm »

Up to Jimmmmm.

I feel like you are in this position really often.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2104 on: November 04, 2014, 07:19:08 pm »

Up to Jimmmmm.

I feel like you are in this position really often.

Yeah.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2105 on: November 04, 2014, 07:21:01 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2106 on: November 04, 2014, 07:21:08 pm »

So, WW as the SK.  I'm not sure what to look for on re-read, since he could play the whole thing as town.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2107 on: November 04, 2014, 07:21:55 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2108 on: November 04, 2014, 07:22:23 pm »

Or killed me, since as you point out, he was the wrong mafia member to win in an endgame with the SK?
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2109 on: November 04, 2014, 07:22:37 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Yeah I did.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2110 on: November 04, 2014, 07:23:52 pm »

My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2111 on: November 04, 2014, 07:24:25 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2112 on: November 04, 2014, 07:25:09 pm »

My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2113 on: November 04, 2014, 07:25:45 pm »

Quote
I definitely wouldn't do what Silver did as an SK, though.  The only reason I'd buy it at all is because he did something very similar as a Survivor in Bastard Mafia.  It didn't work out to well for him there, though, so I wonder if he'd be bold enough to try something like that in a regular game.

A WW quote from D1.  Mentions what he would do as an SK.  Self-aware?

(I'm working from the print screen, so not quoting directly.)
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2114 on: November 04, 2014, 07:26:38 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2115 on: November 04, 2014, 07:27:22 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.

If Mafia shoots town and SK shoots town, and both go through, then SK wins.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2116 on: November 04, 2014, 07:28:23 pm »

My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2117 on: November 04, 2014, 07:28:53 pm »

Though I guess.. if it's you, Faust, Jimmm, then Jimmm gets to be kingmaker and you have no choice.

If you kill Faust and either have BP left or Jimmm commutes, then you get to go for your mislynch here.

So, maybe that's the motivation.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2118 on: November 04, 2014, 07:29:20 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.

If Mafia shoots town and SK shoots town, and both go through, then SK wins.

And how would you try to coordinate that across factions?

And wouldn't the mafia attempt to shoot the SK since you've pointed out the mafia can't win on endgame ties?  So the SK would know that your plan doesn't work.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2119 on: November 04, 2014, 07:29:44 pm »

Though I guess.. if it's you, Faust, Jimmm, then Jimmm gets to be kingmaker and you have no choice.

If you kill Faust and either have BP left or Jimmm commutes, then you get to go for your mislynch here.

So, maybe that's the motivation.

Same for you in that scenario.  Or anyone.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2120 on: November 04, 2014, 07:29:58 pm »

My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.

I obviously did not think it was Eevee/Faust.  I thought one was Mafia, I believed Faust but wasn't sure.  I even said you were likely SK in the case where Faust was Mafia (hey! I was right)
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2121 on: November 04, 2014, 07:31:52 pm »

My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.

Well, hopefully this can be recognized as an artificial argument, because it is.  I'm not really sure if my posts are evidence enough on that, but I'm guessing they are since I was basically filterless posting the entire time.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2122 on: November 04, 2014, 07:32:27 pm »

D1 WW:

Quote
And the main thing, in a broader context than this game: a case being ultimately correct or incorrect is not the same as it being good or bad.  "Correct" or "Incorrect" is whether they flip scum or town, but good or bad is the actual reasoning behind thinking what you're thinking, with the information you have available to you at the time.

I can, say, be a vig, randomly target someone, and hit scum and feel great about it, but my "argument" (in this case, choosing randomly) was obviously terrible.  Less extremely, I can make a bad argument against scum and just be lucky.  I can also make a good argument against town as town, or a good argument against town as scum. 

Or as a general example, most, if not all, Day 1 cases are bad.  But we still hit scum Day 1.

Voting for people is how the game is played, and in a lot of cases as town you're going to vote against other town players.  This is actually a good thing, because it can lead to more information to let you (and the other players) know if they really are scum or are actually town. 

And being "caught for the wrong reasons" is definitely a thing.  I feel it as scum when I get suspected for things that I didn't think warranted suspicion.

That vig thing, and the suspected/caught for the wrong reasons stuff seems relevant.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2123 on: November 04, 2014, 07:33:18 pm »

My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.

Well, hopefully this can be recognized as an artificial argument, because it is.  I'm not really sure if my posts are evidence enough on that, but I'm guessing they are since I was basically filterless posting the entire time.

Filterless posting?  What's that?  Why would you ever filter?

And I never saw your ashersky is scum case, ever.  I clearly never made one on you, as I was defending your towniness most of the day.  Looks like everyone gets it wrong sometimes.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2124 on: November 04, 2014, 07:33:38 pm »

Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.

If Mafia shoots town and SK shoots town, and both go through, then SK wins.

And how would you try to coordinate that across factions?

And wouldn't the mafia attempt to shoot the SK since you've pointed out the mafia can't win on endgame ties?  So the SK would know that your plan doesn't work.

Hm, okay. 
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