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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 175848 times)

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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1575 on: October 21, 2014, 11:18:02 am »

Maybe Eevee is not Silver's partner and Silver was just shot.  Everyone thought he was not Mafia anyway.. the consensus (more or less) was if he was scum, then he was SK.  So we wouldn't be lynching him until after Mafia.  So good night kill target?  Maybe.

I didn't really feel a consensus there... I made that argument I remember, but I don't recall it getting much positive resonance. But I guess if that's how you perceived it, mafia could have perceived it like this as well.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1576 on: October 21, 2014, 11:19:56 am »

Umm.. they didn't have time to plan this, right?  Silver wouldn't join Eevee until today started, so they wouldn't have chat to coordinate.

Yes, I guess it doesn't quite fit with the timing. It can be bussing even without coordination though. I mean, if they are scum, things seem to work out nicely.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1577 on: October 21, 2014, 11:23:43 am »

Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

But he didn't claim to jailkeep me, he claimed to jailkeep Eevee. I can't believe he knew I would investigate Eevee, although I suppose it's a good guess given Eevee's role in the Hydrad lynch.

But anyway, Eevee being jailkept doesn't explain my result after all. e says he'd follow yuma's set up. yuma's setup doesn't specify, but says it follows mafiascum in all cases where it doesn't specify. mafiascum say jailkeep stops kills and prevents the target from using their action, and that's it.

So if my investigation didn't fizzle because of Silver's actions, I must have been roleblocked by the traitor or targeted the SK using the commuter power.

Is there a case where mafia no-kills on purpose so that silver can claim JK and frame Eevee?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1578 on: October 21, 2014, 11:24:27 am »

One thing that I think hasn't been brought up at all until now - it is possible that mafia knew there is a SK since N1 (if they did no kill ADK). Not sure how that factors into things.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1579 on: October 21, 2014, 11:29:22 am »

Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

But he didn't claim to jailkeep me, he claimed to jailkeep Eevee. I can't believe he knew I would investigate Eevee, although I suppose it's a good guess given Eevee's role in the Hydrad lynch.

But anyway, Eevee being jailkept doesn't explain my result after all. e says he'd follow yuma's set up. yuma's setup doesn't specify, but says it follows mafiascum in all cases where it doesn't specify. mafiascum say jailkeep stops kills and prevents the target from using their action, and that's it.

So if my investigation didn't fizzle because of Silver's actions, I must have been roleblocked by the traitor or targeted the SK using the commuter power.

Is there a case where mafia no-kills on purpose so that silver can claim JK and frame Eevee?

Right, he claims to Jailkeep someone---Eevee---to blame for the lack of kill.  In actuality he blocked you.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1580 on: October 21, 2014, 11:30:39 am »

One thing that I think hasn't been brought up at all until now - it is possible that mafia knew there is a SK since N1 (if they did no kill ADK). Not sure how that factors into things.

Only possible if Jimmmm or Ichi are scum.  If Silver is scum, there is no SK.

Notably, Jimm or Ichi could be SK and the Mafia and Traitor simply claimed VT.  Any sensible reason to do that?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1581 on: October 21, 2014, 11:31:20 am »

Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

But he didn't claim to jailkeep me, he claimed to jailkeep Eevee. I can't believe he knew I would investigate Eevee, although I suppose it's a good guess given Eevee's role in the Hydrad lynch.

But anyway, Eevee being jailkept doesn't explain my result after all. e says he'd follow yuma's set up. yuma's setup doesn't specify, but says it follows mafiascum in all cases where it doesn't specify. mafiascum say jailkeep stops kills and prevents the target from using their action, and that's it.

So if my investigation didn't fizzle because of Silver's actions, I must have been roleblocked by the traitor or targeted the SK using the commuter power.

Is there a case where mafia no-kills on purpose so that silver can claim JK and frame Eevee?

Right, he claims to Jailkeep someone---Eevee---to blame for the lack of kill.  In actuality he blocked you.

In this case he does NOT block his partner though.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1582 on: October 21, 2014, 11:31:37 am »

I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1583 on: October 21, 2014, 11:34:35 am »

I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.

Yes... Eevee is not his partner.  His real partner shot him and recruited him (accidentally).
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1584 on: October 21, 2014, 11:36:03 am »

I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.

Yes... Eevee is not his partner.  His real partner shot him and recruited him (accidentally).

that means its you, faust, or ash. Ash has been impeccably townie today and I have a pretty townie read on you, so that leaves faust.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1585 on: October 21, 2014, 11:38:45 am »

I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.

Yes... Eevee is not his partner.  His real partner shot him and recruited him (accidentally).

that means its you, faust, or ash. Ash has been impeccably townie today and I have a pretty townie read on you, so that leaves faust.

Good point. I should add who partners would be into my table.  Silver/Faust doesn't seem implausible on its surface.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1586 on: October 21, 2014, 12:02:08 pm »

I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

Oh man, suck it up. I made a strategic decision to fake a non-PR. This argument is not even good if you accept that it's policy. If you can't handle this kind of thing, don't play mafia.
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1587 on: October 21, 2014, 12:08:18 pm »

Keep in mind that we know silver didn't shoot night one. That doesn't by any means clear him, but I think if we're weighing the evidence on both sides of the silver/Ichi debate we can't leave it out.

That, by the way, is why I was more defensive of silver earlier in the game.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1588 on: October 21, 2014, 12:13:02 pm »

Keep in mind that we know silver didn't shoot night one. That doesn't by any means clear him, but I think if we're weighing the evidence on both sides of the silver/Ichi debate we can't leave it out.

That, by the way, is why I was more defensive of silver earlier in the game.

Oh, he was your Night 1 target?   Well, if Silver is scum, he's in Traitor Knows Mafia setup with no SK... he could be the Traitor an unable to kill.  Or Hydrad simply could have performed the kill.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1589 on: October 21, 2014, 12:17:50 pm »

vote: silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1590 on: October 21, 2014, 12:18:55 pm »

I'm less enthused about the Eevee plan. I think we do want to lynch a claimant, and I think the claimant we want to lynch is Ichi although I am far from sure.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1591 on: October 21, 2014, 12:26:27 pm »

Also keep in mind, Ichi scum means there is an SK.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1592 on: October 21, 2014, 12:34:13 pm »

Really Ichi,Jimm scum => SK is maybe the biggest evidence against Silverspawn.  We have to account for so few kills.  Granted, with SK able to use town abilities instead of killing we may expect less, but 1 kill Night 1 and 0 kills Night 2 makes SK less likely.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1593 on: October 21, 2014, 12:36:15 pm »

Really Ichi,Jimm scum => SK is maybe the biggest evidence against Silverspawn.  We have to account for so few kills.  Granted, with SK able to use town abilities instead of killing we may expect less, but 1 kill Night 1 and 0 kills Night 2 makes SK less likely.
i don't follow, what do you mean?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1594 on: October 21, 2014, 12:39:23 pm »

I believe this is correct:

For clarity:

LiarTown PR1Town PR2Town PR3Mafia AddonSK?
Ichimaru (Psychologist)1-Shot CommuterJailkeeperDetectiveTraitor Knows MafiaYes
Silverspawn (Jailkeeper)1-Shot CommuterPsychologistDetectiveTraitor Knows MafiaNo
Jimmmmm (1-Shot Commuter)DetectiveJailkeeperPsychologistMafia Knows TraitorYes

If Ichi or Jimm are lying, there has to be an SK.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1595 on: October 21, 2014, 12:50:44 pm »

Right, if silver is truthtful, there has to be a SK. I read that wrong.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1596 on: October 21, 2014, 12:56:47 pm »

If we kill silver, we lose a JK. Jimmmmm's power is damn near useless now it's outed unfortunately. Mine and Ichi's aren't, so assuming silver is scum, we'll have two investigative roles, and one of us is likely to get through (the other is likely to get killed). So, the chances are tomorrow we can narrow the lynch pool even further.

If we kill silver and he's town, then ichi's probably the scum. In that case I'm just dead.

If we kill silver and he's town and Jimmmm's the PR scum, then scum still has a killer and a roleblocker, so neither Ichi nor I is getting an investigative result.

So if we lynch silver, we have a 1/3 chance of getting anything from our investigative roles.


If we kill Ichi and HE'S scum, then we have a jailkeeper, which means I could survive AND get an investigative result, although silver should probably go 50/50 on jailkeeping me or Eevee to get some WIFOM going or something like that.

If we kill Ichi and silver is scum then, again, I'm just dead.

If we kill Ichi and Jimmmmm is the scum ... ummm what happens if the jailkeeper and the roleblocker target each other? OP says those things happen simultaneously, but I don't know what that means. I would think that silver would get roleblocked and I would get killed, but I guess if JK has priority silver could still keep me alive.

Depending on the outcome of the JK/RB thing, this outcome might give us a 2/3 chance of having an investigative result tomorrow.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1597 on: October 21, 2014, 01:02:12 pm »

Quote
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I find the argument deserves a hostile response. you seem to be stuck in the mindset that a lie from town is anti town in all situations, and you stick to that despite the blatant facts.

if you think I'm scum, you can vote for me. but if I'm town, then I have kept a PR hidden until day3, and I've stopped possibly 3 of 4 kills. If you think that's a "horrible thing to do as town", then I can only repeat what I said in my last post. Ash said a similar thing, I gave him a similar response. I'm not being any more nice to you, and I don't know why you expected that.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1598 on: October 21, 2014, 01:07:59 pm »

coming back to the actual arguments, faust is not making a bad point here. the Eevee/Ichi combination is problematic. Mh.

does someone know how good Jimmmm is as scum? could he pull this off?

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1599 on: October 21, 2014, 01:19:14 pm »

Quote
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I find the argument deserves a hostile response. you seem to be stuck in the mindset that a lie from town is anti town in all situations, and you stick to that despite the blatant facts.

if you think I'm scum, you can vote for me. but if I'm town, then I have kept a PR hidden until day3, and I've stopped possibly 3 of 4 kills. If you think that's a "horrible thing to do as town", then I can only repeat what I said in my last post. Ash said a similar thing, I gave him a similar response. I'm not being any more nice to you, and I don't know why you expected that.
There is nothing in my post indicating I "can't take it" (meaning your lying and anti-town play). I am only doing my best to express my opinion that you are scum and if you are town, you are not playing a pro-town game. Suggesting that I quite mafia for reasons that you have fabricated is uncalled for and illogical.

It is clear that you think you know better than everyone else and are going to play how you wish to. By all means, you are free to play however you want. You are not free to insult me in the manner that you have though--and then continue onwards as if your unwarranted statements were actually pertinent.
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