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[Witherweaver]

Oh, I forgot the case of Mafia shooting Traitor.  Blah

[silverspawn]

Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

[Witherweaver]

Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

So do you think it's Ichi or Jimmmm?

[silverspawn]

first I thought it's Ichi because of his day1 play, then I thought it's Jimmmmm, mostly because he voted for me, now I'm thinking it's probably Ichi again. while I don't like Jimmmm's posts very much, I agree a little bit with faust that it might not be the easiest thing to do as scum. Although, I have no idea how good Jimmmmm is as scum if he does something, because I've only ever seen him lurking.

maybe 55% Ichi, 45% Jimmmm, 95% Eeevee

[Witherweaver]

Is Joth actually logically excluded from being scum?

Let's see.. if Joth is lying:

...  okay not possible.  Any setup without Detective implies PRs that no one has claimed.  So, Joth is 100% Town.  Someone probably said that already.

[silverspawn]

yes, joth is an IC

[silverspawn]

actually, I didn't know that it was impossible from everyone's perspective, I just knew that he was an IC for me.

so, i'm sure town!IC!goodplayer!niceguy!town!joth will agree to lynch Eevee.

[Witherweaver]

Why is lynching Eevee better than lynching one of the PR claims? After all, we know for a fact there is scum in {Ichi, Silver, Jimmmm}.  Eevee turning up town won't change this, I think.  Eevee turning SK I believe implicates Jimmmm.  Eevee turning Mafia.. I'm not sure.

[Witherweaver]

Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

Well, traitor could not have blocked the kill, because Traitor had to have Roleblocked Joth.

Unless SK!Eevee chose to commute.

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

[silverspawn]

because I think Eevee is most likely the SK, and if we kill the SK, we stop one night kill. If we kill scum, traitor gets the NK, and if we kill traitor, scum can still NK. In both cases, we can still lose 2 people during the night. Of course, traitor can roleblock, so that's good to get rid off too, but not as good as stopping a kill. I think it's SK > Traitor > Scum for our targets.

plus I'm way more certain on Eevee, so I'd rather risk that now than doing a more or less coinflippy decision between Jimmm and Ichi.

[silverspawn]

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

right. it's still more plausible then any scenario where I'm not JK. so scum probably shot Eevee and Traitor roleblocked Joth.

[Witherweaver]

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

right. it's still more plausible then any scenario where I'm not JK. so scum probably shot Eevee and Traitor roleblocked Joth.

But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

[silverspawn]

actually, thinking about it some more, it might be more likely for Eevee to be scum than the SK. SK!Eevee has less motivation to defend hydrad than Scum!Eevee. and there is only one scum who can do the NK, so the fact that me targeting him apparently stopped kills doesn't really make it more likely that he's the SK.

so, maybe he is just scum, then that's less good than hitting traitor.

[silverspawn]

But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

well, the obvious explanation would be that they were afraid of me "doctoring" any of you.

[Witherweaver]

But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

well, the obvious explanation would be that they were afraid of me "doctoring" any of you.

No one had claimed yet, though, except Ichi.  Would they even know JK is in the setup?

[Eevee]

I would so love to defend myself, but all the scenarios compatible with the claims just seem so far-fetched.

[jotheonah]

I'm pretty into lynching Eevee to be honest. It's nice to be an IC. It means I almost certainly will die, but it's nice for now.

[jotheonah]

Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

Well, traitor could not have blocked the kill, because Traitor had to have Roleblocked Joth.

Unless SK!Eevee chose to commute.

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

ANyone want to figure what would have happened if Eevee tried to commute and silver tried to jail him?

[Witherweaver]

Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

Well, traitor could not have blocked the kill, because Traitor had to have Roleblocked Joth.

Unless SK!Eevee chose to commute.

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

ANyone want to figure what would have happened if Eevee tried to commute and silver tried to jail him?

Well, Eevee has to be SK, and here Silver is telling the truth.  So

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

Ich is scum, and Traitor knows Mafia.  So Traitor did not RB Mafia.. why no Mafia kill?  Maybe Mafia shoots traitor on accident.  Maybe Jimm was target and commuted.  Maybe Mafia tried to shoot Eevee.

[silverspawn]

But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

well, the obvious explanation would be that they were afraid of me "doctoring" any of you.

No one had claimed yet, though, except Ichi.  Would they even know JK is in the setup?

that's an interesting question. let's say that Eevee is scum and the SK targeted him

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

these are the setups with a SK, so that's 2/3. If they beleive the Ichi claim, #1 is impossible, so they know that a JK is in the setup.

Now let's say Eevee is the SK, Scum targeted him, and Ichi is telling the truth -> Mafia knows Traitor

4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

here we got 50%

and now let's say Eevee is the SK, Scum targeted him, and Jimmmm is telling the truth -> Mafia doesn't know the Traitor.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

here we also got 50%

PPE3

[jotheonah]

Wait, opinions on this:

Ok, another point to consider. We have 8 surviving townies -- 4 claimed PRs and 4 claimed VTs. If there's no SK, we know there's one scum in each group.

BUT if there's a serial killer, we know that there are two scum in the VT group. Given that, lynching a VT gives us a 50/50 shot at scum, even not taking into account the evidence. If we lynch Eevee, the scummiest VT in the scenario where there is an SK, I just really like our chances, plus then scum has to leave alive either me or silver, which is quite helpful.

[Witherweaver]

How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town? 

[Eevee]

How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?

We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

[Witherweaver]

How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?

We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

We won't lose with one mislynch.  Is it really true that we won't know anything more?

[Eevee]

How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?

We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

We won't lose with one mislynch.  Is it really true that we won't know anything more?

I don't know. I've been trying to find a scenario I find plausible that fits the claims and my role pm, but they all seem so far-fetched. I'm notoriously bad with setup stuff though.

My brain of course wants to believe silver is lying because his claims sound so unbelievable to me (there being a SK, and me being jailed causing us to somehow miss two kills).