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Author Topic: M49: James Bond Mafia - Town wins!  (Read 185724 times)

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liopoil

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1425 on: September 21, 2014, 03:50:39 pm »

Yeah, none of the posts of Kingzog are particularly scummy. The reason he's the last scum is because he was off wagon and against the lynches of both joth and voltaire, IIRC. Plus there are good reasons to think I am town, and good reasons to think WW is town. No real reason to think zog is town.

well, he only had two posts while the whole thing took place.

In class so I'll add more later if needed, but I'm vanilla town. Oh, and I'm Q, so  I can make gadgets to help find scum!

I'm game to lynch a Vanilla townie. We may get the roleblocker, and even then they can't roleblock both cop and doctor, which I'm pretty sure XP is now.

note the dates, the first one was before Voltaire claimed, and the second one just says "I'm game lynching a vanlilla townie". is that enough to say that he was against a volt lynch?
The second one was slightly scummy, but I was more talking about the joth lynch. And it is certainly reasonable for a townie (like you) to oppose the joth lynch and support that XP lynch. But, POE.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1426 on: September 21, 2014, 04:30:32 pm »

Vote Count 4.1

Kingzog3 (3): XerxesPraelor, liopoil, Witherweaver [L-1]

Not Voting (3): Kingzog3, silverspawn, Hydrad


With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 4 ends at 5pm FT on Sept. 30th.
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Wins: M39, M41, M48, M96, M97, M102, M105
Losses: M40, M43, M45, BM17 (?), RMM13, RMM17, RMM20, NM7, ZM18, M100, M109
MVPs: M97
Mod/Co-Mod: M46, M49, M52, NM10

Hydrad

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1427 on: September 21, 2014, 04:36:30 pm »

well even though I think we have caught the last scum I think i'm going to wait until he has a chance to get out of it. Or is that not needed if you think you have scum. I guess I could hammer but I think waiting is the right thing to do right?
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

liopoil

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1428 on: September 21, 2014, 04:40:13 pm »

well even though I think we have caught the last scum I think i'm going to wait until he has a chance to get out of it. Or is that not needed if you think you have scum. I guess I could hammer but I think waiting is the right thing to do right?
If you think there is a chance you could be persuaded not to lynch zog, don't hammer. Otherwise, hammer.
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Hydrad

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1429 on: September 21, 2014, 04:45:39 pm »

hmm i doubt there is anything he can say that will make me not want to lynch him. So i feel like its pointless for me to wait for him to try to get out of it. So i guess I won't be persuaded and I'm more worried about you guys being pursuaded? But at this point I don't know if anyone will really believe kingzog. So it almost feels like we are going to let him talk. And then just lynch him a couple posts after...
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1430 on: September 21, 2014, 04:50:35 pm »

wait, he is on L-1? how did that happen, I thought we were all just talking about him.

it looks like WW put him on on L-1 without announcing it. was that a mistake? KZ didn't even say anything yet, and I still think the eevee lynch looks like someone trying to fake noob!scum!KZ. though, that is the only pro KZ argument that I have.

in any case, don't hammer. gotta reread WW first.

liopoil

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1431 on: September 21, 2014, 04:58:44 pm »

hmm i doubt there is anything he can say that will make me not want to lynch him. So i feel like its pointless for me to wait for him to try to get out of it. So i guess I won't be persuaded and I'm more worried about you guys being pursuaded? But at this point I don't know if anyone will really believe kingzog. So it almost feels like we are going to let him talk. And then just lynch him a couple posts after...
If we get persuaded and you don't, then you would rather he be lynched now before that happens, right? Waiting increases the chance that you don't get your preferred lynch through then.

I'm not going to be persuaded to vote for WW today, and WW won't vote for me either I think. So our votes are fixed. For zog to avoid lynch he would have to convince two of the ICs not to vote for him. He might be able to get silverspawn and XP. If he does, we are at a standstill at 3v3. You can clinch it for your side (lynch zog no matter what) by hammering now, taking advantage of XP voting for zog right now.

But really think silverspawn and XP will still want to lynch zog anyway.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1432 on: September 21, 2014, 05:09:02 pm »

I think Zog not saying anything here is telling enough.  I have a real hard time imaging a scenario where I don't vote for Zog today.

Actually I'm just not going to not vote for him.  It's 100% him or Lio, and sure it could be Lio but we can just lynch him tomorrow.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1433 on: September 21, 2014, 05:29:26 pm »

Actually, is the case where XP is town and Silver lied logically ruled out?  Would mean we had D instead of DD, so one less T.. is it possible with the setup?

My guess is no, but I can't check now.

Any way, that's like the lowest consideration even if it's possible.
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silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1434 on: September 21, 2014, 05:48:31 pm »

Actually, is the case where XP is town and Silver lied logically ruled out?  Would mean we had D instead of DD, so one less T.. is it possible with the setup?

My guess is no, but I can't check now.

Any way, that's like the lowest consideration even if it's possible.
I think that was impossible because of reasons? Not sure. If anyone wants clarification, I'll look back into the setup.

If it's possible, I'm pretty sure it means we also have a SK.

KingZog3

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1435 on: September 21, 2014, 05:57:52 pm »

I think Zog not saying anything here is telling enough.  I have a real hard time imaging a scenario where I don't vote for Zog today.

Actually I'm just not going to not vote for him.  It's 100% him or Lio, and sure it could be Lio but we can just lynch him tomorrow.

I was in Ottawa today, and on a bus back to Montreal.

And yes, Eevee lynch is so terrible for me, why would I do it? With Voltaire's partner among the VT's, why would I lynch a VT? Because he pointed out that I looked like Voltaire's partner? I got over OMGUS day 1. :P I know I'm new, but I would still rather try to kill a power roll than someone who claimed VT.

I mean, I'll be lynched either today or tomorrow I'm pretty sure, and it seems Hydrad is already not going to be convinced by anything I say.
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silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1436 on: September 21, 2014, 06:01:46 pm »

I think Zog not saying anything here is telling enough.  I have a real hard time imaging a scenario where I don't vote for Zog today.

Actually I'm just not going to not vote for him.  It's 100% him or Lio, and sure it could be Lio but we can just lynch him tomorrow.

I was in Ottawa today, and on a bus back to Montreal.

And yes, Eevee lynch is so terrible for me, why would I do it? With Voltaire's partner among the VT's, why would I lynch a VT? Because he pointed out that I looked like Voltaire's partner? I got over OMGUS day 1. :P I know I'm new, but I would still rather try to kill a power roll than someone who claimed VT.

I mean, I'll be lynched either today or tomorrow I'm pretty sure, and it seems Hydrad is already not going to be convinced by anything I say.

Does that mean, "go ahead and hammer?"

you could convince me, I'm only about 60% on you.

Witherweaver

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1437 on: September 21, 2014, 06:05:18 pm »

I think Zog not saying anything here is telling enough.  I have a real hard time imaging a scenario where I don't vote for Zog today.

Actually I'm just not going to not vote for him.  It's 100% him or Lio, and sure it could be Lio but we can just lynch him tomorrow.

I was in Ottawa today, and on a bus back to Montreal.

And yes, Eevee lynch is so terrible for me, why would I do it? With Voltaire's partner among the VT's, why would I lynch a VT? Because he pointed out that I looked like Voltaire's partner? I got over OMGUS day 1. :P I know I'm new, but I would still rather try to kill a power roll than someone who claimed VT.

I mean, I'll be lynched either today or tomorrow I'm pretty sure, and it seems Hydrad is already not going to be convinced by anything I say.

This is just a fancy way of saying "Don't lynch me, I'm Canadian."
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liopoil

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1438 on: September 21, 2014, 06:10:16 pm »

Actually, is the case where XP is town and Silver lied logically ruled out?  Would mean we had D instead of DD, so one less T.. is it possible with the setup?

My guess is no, but I can't check now.

Any way, that's like the lowest consideration even if it's possible.
I think that was impossible because of reasons? Not sure. If anyone wants clarification, I'll look back into the setup.

If it's possible, I'm pretty sure it means we also have a SK.
It's impossible because then there would be at least 4Ts and then there wouldn't be a godfather.
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KingZog3

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1439 on: September 21, 2014, 06:43:57 pm »

I think Zog not saying anything here is telling enough.  I have a real hard time imaging a scenario where I don't vote for Zog today.

Actually I'm just not going to not vote for him.  It's 100% him or Lio, and sure it could be Lio but we can just lynch him tomorrow.

I was in Ottawa today, and on a bus back to Montreal.

And yes, Eevee lynch is so terrible for me, why would I do it? With Voltaire's partner among the VT's, why would I lynch a VT? Because he pointed out that I looked like Voltaire's partner? I got over OMGUS day 1. :P I know I'm new, but I would still rather try to kill a power roll than someone who claimed VT.

I mean, I'll be lynched either today or tomorrow I'm pretty sure, and it seems Hydrad is already not going to be convinced by anything I say.

Does that mean, "go ahead and hammer?"

you could convince me, I'm only about 60% on you.

I understand I'm new, and yes I've been posting less as the game went on because the pace is just so fast and I can't keep up, but killing Eevee is just terrible. I'm reading the posts and by the time I read them and figure out all the set-up logic, there's more posts to read. During the Voltaire vote I posted that I'm game to lynch a VT instead of Voltaire, and immediately Eevee said this:

I'm game to lynch a Vanilla townie. We may get the roleblocker, and even then they can't roleblock both cop and doctor, which I'm pretty sure XP is now.
How you doing today, Voltaire's partner?

Me killing Eevee is pretty much OMGUS, which caused a fuss day 1 when I did that. A natural spin to make me seem like noob!scum!KingZong (see? I'm getting the lingo right?). I certainly hope I don't seem THAT dumb that I can't figure out Eevee is a worse kill over other confirmed Village targets.

This is just a fancy way of saying "Don't lynch me, I'm Canadian."

But like actually, I'm so polite! How can you hate me?
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liopoil

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1440 on: September 21, 2014, 06:49:21 pm »

That's a reason TO kill eevee - he suspected you!

And I mean, why would I or ww kill eevee?
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KingZog3

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1441 on: September 21, 2014, 06:59:04 pm »

That's a reason TO kill eevee - he suspected you!

And I mean, why would I or ww kill eevee?

He's also a VT, which if I'm scum is a lifeline, since the scum partner is most likely in the VT's. Plus look at the result! It was pretty much instant vote on me, since it's an obvious bad choice of lynch and something it seems I wouldn't think about. Me killing Eevee is OMGUS, and it's easy to frame a new player on OMGUS.

And you or ww would Eevee for this exact effect. It seems to be working too.
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silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1442 on: September 21, 2014, 07:11:20 pm »

there were 4 possible lynch candidates. now there's three. scum changed their chances from 50% to 33% with this kill.

to me, it looks like pure desperation. whoever did it, he had to expect us to lynch KZ. there is no way this is good play for town!KZ. but at the same time, it's also not good play for lio or ww, because chances were that we lynch KZ anyway.

it's just bad. my feeling is that we do scum a favor if we lynch KZ now, but at the same time, leaving him alive seems insane.

I really have to reread WW before I make a decision.

silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1443 on: September 21, 2014, 07:11:40 pm »

*scum!KZ

silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1444 on: September 22, 2014, 03:03:50 pm »

okay, WW reread. man, he seems so towny. all his posts read as sincere town player trying to push town to win and town town town town town town. his wagons too, on the first one he tried to do Hydrad, then unvoted as Hydrad claimed, but he didn't do TA. on the second wagon, he pushed joth. WW, if you're scum, you're playing really amazing.

I can't vote WW. I won't do lio today.

offer everyone the chance to say something final, then i'll hammer.

silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1445 on: September 22, 2014, 03:08:40 pm »

the only thing bad about WW is that he put KZ on L-1 without saying anything. but I really don't think scum!WW has to risk that.

Hydrad

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1446 on: September 22, 2014, 03:17:24 pm »

I'm still ok with a KZ lynch
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liopoil

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1447 on: September 22, 2014, 03:29:10 pm »

seriously, just lynch him. If he's town lynch me tomorrow. WW is clearly town. Zog won't flip town though, so you won't need to lynch me tomorrow.
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Hydrad

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1448 on: September 22, 2014, 03:31:17 pm »

ok i'll hammer in a few minutes
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

silverspawn

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Re: M49: James Bond Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1449 on: September 22, 2014, 03:32:05 pm »

seriously, just lynch him. If he's town lynch me tomorrow. WW is clearly town. Zog won't flip town though, so you won't need to lynch me tomorrow.
okay

vote: KingZog3
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