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[liopoil]

D2:

Silver was 99% Town to you yesterday, FYI.

He was indeed. unvote Phoeey. I just remembered why. He is null now.

This is pretty townie.

Personally I have my doubts about xp but I guess I'm ok with letting him live for a bit in case he is a doctor. But I find it really weird that scum didn't kill him if he is a doctor. I guess theres a chance we have another doctor or a 1 shot doctor that saved him. Or maybe scum kept him alive to see if we would lynch him and it saves scum a night kill on him.

Honestly this situation is really annoying and I'm curious what others think of it.

why didn't you shoot him? I guess saving the shot is reasonable. But semi-confirming you would be nice.

I can't target myself, and I had actually forgotten about the masons. I would probably have done the same thing, though, hoping to win the WIFOM.

I don't believe you.

How could you forgot about the masons, when I repeatedly asked 'WAIT, WHO ARE THE MASONS AGAIN," even late into the day.

Protecting a Mason was obviously the best move. What do you mean, win the WIFOM? How could you win it by protecting Silverspawn? Wouldn't mafia be shooting you if not the Masons?

The scum confidently killed a Mason. If you were actually a Doctor, that was sort of risky. But I don't believe you are actually a Doctor.

Vote: XerxesPraelor

pretty much this.

I think XP is more likely than not to be scum. I don't know if I want to lynch him.

Robz has really had an underwhelming amount of contributions. Wanting to lynch XP here hardly counts.

what?

Hmmm, this roleblocker thing is a good point. Although wouldn't scum maybe block Hydrad? Dang, yesterday was really the day to lynch XP. But why in the world would he save silverspawn?

this post doesn't really make sense to me at all. Yet Robz gets an "overwhelmingly townie impression" from XP, presumably because of this post. Scummy for both.

Rereading Robz, I stumbled upon XP supposedly forgetting about the masons. MAN. How is that possible!? XP, how much time did you spend on choosing your doctoring target?

townpoints for this, especially because it comes right after people back off lynching XP.

Hydrad's point on Eevee buddying is kind of interesting.  Does Eevee have a history of this?

I feel old.

Eevee's meta is buddying. He will buddy you. That's a thing as strongly as you being scum or Robz claiming IC or ash having an insane plan.

Hey, robz hasn't claimed IC! scum. (Not really serious)

Voltaire's posts in general seem like genuine town.

Vote: chairs

oh hey, "I" got up to at least 4 votes. Well you'll all realize I'm town soon enough.

I totally deserve to be lynch, I have been of zero help.

Of course, I'm obviously not scum, as those who have played with me should very well know. Lurking past the point of acceptability, to the point where I was going to be in trouble? Obviously not something I do as scum.

super townie post, but some day he is going to do this as scum and then never again. Is today that day? I don't know yet...

Okay.
Why are we voting chairs if he is going to be replaced?
And…Robz is right, he deserves to be lynched. Then he goes on to say that hes town because he was lurking? Aka he is town because he is acting anti-town? This is either bad policy, or scum. I really dont care about his meta. vote: Robz

It would probably be more helpful if a non-me person explained why I'm not scum.

ooo, scummy.

well the most surprising thing for me is that i found him scummy in day 1 tbh. strong town read now.

i hope this doesn't look like i'm defending my scum buddy. it might be something i would do as scum. although you could come to different conclusions by rereading him, so maybe i wouldn't. in any case, he seems towny to me.

so, i'll cross hydrad cus of what i just said, me because i know im town, kingzog because he also seems towny, lio because chairs was literally just lurking the entire time, so we have zero information about him, and lynching lio now seems like a pure random, and we should do better than that, sudgy and TA because they're dead, and SK cus he's a mason

1. Robz888
2. Hydrad
3. silverspawn
4. jotheonah
5. Eevee
6. Kingzog3
7. Witherweaver
8. liopoil
9. Voltaire
10. XerxesPraelor
11. sudgy
12. SK
13. Twistedarcher


that leaves

1. Robz888
4. jotheonah
5. Eevee
7. Witherweaver
9. Voltaire
10. XerxesPraelor

this post is townie, especially the bit about defending his scumbuddy. I also agree with it for the most part. I'll read that Hydrad post after I'm done with this, but so far I lean town on Hydrad.

you are a watchtower, so i you hammer XP, does he go on top of your deck?

no, he gets trashed.

Unvote

Robz you have to realize the "I'm town, I wouldn't play this poorly as scum" defense is not a very convincing one.  And that you make that defense as town means you would make it as scum, too.

I think it's a pretty convincing one. He hasn't made it as scum yet! And has made it as town before, right?

Catching up now.

joth, that's about the 54,221th time you've said you "feel unsure" about me and need to re-read me. Are you loving the idea of mislynching Volt but don't want to press a fakecase if you don't have support? Because it's really starting to feel that way.

sure is. And that's a large number.

vote: Hydrad

thank you for reminding me, silverspawn.

I think silverspawn is playing a very towny game here.

No, this is very bad. Hydrad is the IC who is not actually an IC but really is person in this game. There's no way the way his claim went down it's not true. At least no way that we should seriously consider today. I think this is a very bad place to vote.

Agreed, more on this later.

I remember it vividly. Totally shattered my illusion of having scumrobz figured out.

Oh how I miss those times of innocense.

Which game?!?

I was sure. I never said it was a good idea, just that it was likely to happen.

But in my mind, the more I think about it, his weird claim to have protected silverspawn is a pretty clear towntell. Scum!XP would have spent all night thinking about how to best re-inforce his fake claim the next day, and he would have come up with something better than that.

"better than that"... well "that" seems to have been pretty darn good. How that can be a towntell... no.

Well that's the thread! Summary stuff to come.

[liopoil]

So, liopoil, why do you think XP is lying? If you do think XP is lying, why do you think he named such a weird protection target?

I think he's lying because only town doctors claim doctor. Too lazy to do the math, but on average I'd guess there are maybe slightly under 1 doctors. On average there are ~3 scums. Scum claims doctor. So even if there is a doctor, claimed doctors are more likely to be scum than town. But that's not all. He's also scummy. Why did he name a weird protection target? Well, he has 3 options: SK, sudgy, or not-mason. SS makes the most sense of the not-masons. Sudgy was much more active than SK on D1 and is also a vet, so scum would probably rather kill him. It would be pretty hard to justify protecting SK. Since his scumteam wanted to kill sudgy, protecting sudgy is also strange. Sure he can say he was roleblocked, but why not roleblock Hydrad? vigilantes are terrifying! And one that probably wants to semi-confirm themselves! That leaves saying he protected a not-mason. I don't see the deterrent for claiming that. It's so easy to say you forgot about masons, and really you probably won't get suspected for it. Heck, some of you are even giving him towncred! Well I'm not. I don't believe that he could forget about the masons as town. He was one of the first who brought up the connection between sudgy and SK! No, I think it more likely he is scum.

Really the claiming his target isn't even the scummiest part.

[jotheonah]

Vigs are not terrifying for scum night one. They are probably scum's best friends.

Also read the set up. Not only doctors but multiple doctors are possible.

[liopoil]

read SS's post with Hydrad's posts, don't have a reason to think he's scum, and 1-shot vig is a very townie role which will hopefully be useful to us. I HAVE A PLAN!

So here's the thing with Hydrad's role. If there are two deaths tonight, we still don't know whether it was Hydrad who shot or an SK... thus not clearing Hydrad. We could have him tell us who he will shoot, but the problem is that scum can just choose whether to roleblock Hydrad or not depending on if his target is mafia.

SO PLAN!

Hydrad tells us the name of a player before the end of the day. IF our lynch target flips mafia roleblocker, Hydrad will shoot the player he named.

If our lynch target isn't the mafia roleblocker, Hydrad either shoots the named player anyway, shoot someone else, or doesn't shoot, his choice.

Plan probably is irrelevant because we probably won't be lucky enough to lynch the mafia roleblocker, but is still worth doing for sure. Hydrad, sound good?

[liopoil]

Vigs are not terrifying for scum night one. They are probably scum's best friends.

Also read the set up. Not only doctors but multiple doctors are possible.

No, vigs are always terrifying.

I am aware that multiple doctors are possible. I have read the setup. I ALWAYS read the setup. Nowhere have a said anything that suggest that I thought that only 1 doctor was possible. Okay, I guess you could interpret that one post that way. But then you would be interpreting it the wrong way.

[Hydrad]

Right now I'm going town on liopoil. I still am really suspicious about XP being doctor. But I'm still worried because the risk that if he is a doctor can be really bad for town. I realize that they are just going to roleblock him and he will be a VT if thats true. But if scum wants to keep him alive isn't it good that they are roleblocking him everynight?

I'm just trying to figure out how bad is it for town if he actually is a doctor?

PPE:2

[Hydrad]

read SS's post with Hydrad's posts, don't have a reason to think he's scum, and 1-shot vig is a very townie role which will hopefully be useful to us. I HAVE A PLAN!

So here's the thing with Hydrad's role. If there are two deaths tonight, we still don't know whether it was Hydrad who shot or an SK... thus not clearing Hydrad. We could have him tell us who he will shoot, but the problem is that scum can just choose whether to roleblock Hydrad or not depending on if his target is mafia.

SO PLAN!

Hydrad tells us the name of a player before the end of the day. IF our lynch target flips mafia roleblocker, Hydrad will shoot the player he named.

If our lynch target isn't the mafia roleblocker, Hydrad either shoots the named player anyway, shoot someone else, or doesn't shoot, his choice.

Plan probably is irrelevant because we probably won't be lucky enough to lynch the mafia roleblocker, but is still worth doing for sure. Hydrad, sound good?

Perfect I was actually trying to think of doing something like this. This also helps if we lynch someone other then XP they will have to roleblock me to stop the shot and let him potentially save someone or still keep roleblocking XP.

[Hydrad]

read SS's post with Hydrad's posts, don't have a reason to think he's scum, and 1-shot vig is a very townie role which will hopefully be useful to us. I HAVE A PLAN!

So here's the thing with Hydrad's role. If there are two deaths tonight, we still don't know whether it was Hydrad who shot or an SK... thus not clearing Hydrad. We could have him tell us who he will shoot, but the problem is that scum can just choose whether to roleblock Hydrad or not depending on if his target is mafia.

SO PLAN!

Hydrad tells us the name of a player before the end of the day. IF our lynch target flips mafia roleblocker, Hydrad will shoot the player he named.

If our lynch target isn't the mafia roleblocker, Hydrad either shoots the named player anyway, shoot someone else, or doesn't shoot, his choice.

Plan probably is irrelevant because we probably won't be lucky enough to lynch the mafia roleblocker, but is still worth doing for sure. Hydrad, sound good?

Perfect I was actually trying to think of doing something like this. This also helps if we lynch someone other then XP they will have to roleblock me to stop the shot and let him potentially save someone or still keep roleblocking XP.

And then I get to play mindgames again of if I shot or not which is fun. If possible I would like it if I could keep my shot till later in the game where I'm more likely to hit scum or not. But i realize that scum will just kill me before it gets to that point.

[liopoil]

But I'm still worried because the risk that if he is a doctor can be really bad for town. I realize that they are just going to roleblock him and he will be a VT if thats true. But if scum wants to keep him alive isn't it good that they are roleblocking him everynight?

Scum can either roleblock him, kill him, or just try not to shoot the player he protects. Highly unlikely his role does anything pro-town. The strength of doctors in this setup in particular is when they are unclaimed... which is one reason you should lynch claimed doctors. Claiming VT wouldn't be out of the question for a doctor, really.

[Voltaire]

Definitely getting a town read on lio. Not a good lynch today, people on him/chairs.

[liopoil]

Voltaire-ish-style reads:

1. Robz888
2. Hydrad - pro-town and towny claim
3. silverspawn - towny
4. jotheonah - scummy
5. Eevee
6. Kingzog3
7. Witherweaver
8. chairsliopoil - me
9. Voltaire - towny
10. XerxesPraelor - claimed doctor and scummy
11. sudgy - dead town
12. SK - confirmed town
13. Twistedarcher - dead town

Green = conf. town
lime green = townreads
black = near null
pink = scumreads
red = conf. scum

Which leaves the following lynch candidates:

Preferred lynch group: joth, XP
scummy? maybe?: Robz, WW
lean town: eevee, kingzog

which I plan on narrowing down further

[liopoil]

oh, and I'll put down a Vote: XerxesPraelor

[jotheonah]

I'm not sure how you can think XP and I are partners. I started the wagon against him that got him to L1, right?

[jotheonah]

Scummy things on re-read:

It's a very, very natural for a new player to think "I am town, how dares he vote for me! He must be scum.".

When I thought that there was no exclamation mark. And tbh, I wasn't thinking that he was scum. Just "how dare he vote for me."

Ok, this is pretty scummy -- Zog actually admitting to voting for someone he didn't think was scum. And we all sort of let that slip by. But, idk, in context it sort of fits with how newbie he's being. So not sure it's the best case today.

The case I actually like here is XP. During RVS, he throws his vote around a lot, that's fine, everyone does that. Then the case starts building on sudgy and he really shamelessly sheeps it:

vote: sudgy

Baa.

Then he does something he'll do over and over again: defend Robz in Robz's absence, despite that Robz has posted nothing of substance all day.

Didn't you just see robz has no time right now to defend himself?

Sudgy/SK scumteam??

The main thing I don't like is his going back to RVS after something has already begun that he has an opinion on.

A few people vote for him over his SK/sudgy scumteam accusation. He rapidly backs off.

Whatever. Forget the SK thing. I do think Sudgy overreacted here, but maybe we should leave that for another day. Sudgy tends to get lynched for this independent of alignment.

unvote

I have a small scumread on Eevee for using overreaction as the case on sudgy when he should know better.

Sudgy "over"reacts all the time, whether scum or town, and Eevee's been around long enough to know this. It's a null tell for him.

Then he disappears for like 5 pages, and then posts this.

Why is everyone voting for robz?

I think vet scum would just accept it immediately, like they did in dice Mafia. Kind of like Eevee, who also jumped on the easiest ladder that very well might have gone through except for the unforeseen mason claim, especially knowing that sudgy is an easy mislynch.

Silverspawn/Hydrad's reactions, since they're newer, are also bad, but Hydras sounds more sincere to me somehow.

Voltaire has me in his suspicion list, which I don't like, but he seems to be acting pretty towny.

Witherweaver, Joth, and KingZog haven't done anything I noticed, so I'll have to look at them later.

That, after the second defense of Robz/panic about Robz votes, strikes me as a classic scum "acti-lurking" post. It tries to look like participation, but fails to pin down anything worthwhile or add anything new.

By the way, as I far as I know, I've reposted everything XP has posted in this thread since RVS. And it's consisted of:

-sheeping
-lurking
-actilurking
-backpedaling
-being weirdly concerned about Robz

All that is enough for me to Vote: XerxesPraelor. I hope you will all join me.

Is this a post a dude writes about his partner? And then I continue to push despite multiple viable other wagons.

[XerxesPraelor]

You could still be scum pushing my mislynch.

I'm going to see if I can do one of those game theory thing. When the day ends, I flip a coin. If heads, I protect SK. Then again. If heads, Hydrad. If both were tails, I pick someone else. So now I can submit my plan in case I'm missing something important like last time, but scum won't know who I'll protect.

[Hydrad]

You could still be scum pushing my mislynch.

I'm going to see if I can do one of those game theory thing. When the day ends, I flip a coin. If heads, I protect SK. Then again. If heads, Hydrad. If both were tails, I pick someone else. So now I can submit my plan in case I'm missing something important like last time, but scum won't know who I'll protect.

Oh interesting the flipping a coin thing is a interesting way to make a decision. That way scum can't figure out who you are going to choose as easily. Maybe I should try that.

[XerxesPraelor]

DAY 1 FINAL VOTE COUNT

XerxesPraelor (3): sudgy, Kingzog3, chairs
Twistedarcher (7): Eevee, XerxesPraelor, SK, Voltaire, Robz888, silverspawn, jotheonah

Not Voting (3): Witherweaver, Twistedarcher, Hydrad

With 13 alive it took 7 to lynch.

Voltaire and robz are at the critical point in the ladder, and so look scummier. I'm going to go look at Eevee/Voltaire interactions.

[KingZog3]

So, liopoil, why do you think XP is lying? If you do think XP is lying, why do you think he named such a weird protection target?

I think he's lying because only town doctors claim doctor. Too lazy to do the math, but on average I'd guess there are maybe slightly under 1 doctors. On average there are ~3 scums. Scum claims doctor. So even if there is a doctor, claimed doctors are more likely to be scum than town. But that's not all. He's also scummy. Why did he name a weird protection target? Well, he has 3 options: SK, sudgy, or not-mason. SS makes the most sense of the not-masons. Sudgy was much more active than SK on D1 and is also a vet, so scum would probably rather kill him. It would be pretty hard to justify protecting SK. Since his scumteam wanted to kill sudgy, protecting sudgy is also strange. Sure he can say he was roleblocked, but why not roleblock Hydrad? vigilantes are terrifying! And one that probably wants to semi-confirm themselves! That leaves saying he protected a not-mason. I don't see the deterrent for claiming that. It's so easy to say you forgot about masons, and really you probably won't get suspected for it. Heck, some of you are even giving him towncred! Well I'm not. I don't believe that he could forget about the masons as town. He was one of the first who brought up the connection between sudgy and SK! No, I think it more likely he is scum.

Really the claiming his target isn't even the scummiest part.

This is like, the most convincing post of this whole game.

The vigilante didn't confirm themselves though. There was only 1 night kill, and that was on Sudgy, so clearly scum killed sudgy. Unless vigilante targeted SS, the supposed doctor target. But that makes no sense . Which leads me to think maybe the roleblock was on the Vig and XP isn't a doctor.

vote: XP

[liopoil]

I'm not sure how you can think XP and I are partners. I started the wagon against him that got him to L1, right?

Didn't say you are partners, though that is plausible. You since jumped your vote around a lot, IIRC. Plus bussing is a thing. Is it the most likely thing? no. Is it at all out of the question? no. I have an independent scumread on both of you.

You could still be scum pushing my mislynch.

I'm going to see if I can do one of those game theory thing. When the day ends, I flip a coin. If heads, I protect SK. Then again. If heads, Hydrad. If both were tails, I pick someone else. So now I can submit my plan in case I'm missing something important like last time, but scum won't know who I'll protect.

Oh interesting the flipping a coin thing is a interesting way to make a decision. That way scum can't figure out who you are going to choose as easily. Maybe I should try that.

Well, sort of. Mixed strategies are sometimes a good idea. This is probably one of those situations. However, I wouldn't let there be any chance of you protecting a non SK or Hydrad player. No reason to do that, because we are happy if scum kills a non SK or Hydrad player anyway. I'd just assign probabilities that add up to 1 to Hydrad and SK, then go to random.org or something. I'd suggest assigning a higher probability to SK. There's no reason to make them coin flips in particular, you can make them weird probabilities.

[liopoil]

So, liopoil, why do you think XP is lying? If you do think XP is lying, why do you think he named such a weird protection target?

I think he's lying because only town doctors claim doctor. Too lazy to do the math, but on average I'd guess there are maybe slightly under 1 doctors. On average there are ~3 scums. Scum claims doctor. So even if there is a doctor, claimed doctors are more likely to be scum than town. But that's not all. He's also scummy. Why did he name a weird protection target? Well, he has 3 options: SK, sudgy, or not-mason. SS makes the most sense of the not-masons. Sudgy was much more active than SK on D1 and is also a vet, so scum would probably rather kill him. It would be pretty hard to justify protecting SK. Since his scumteam wanted to kill sudgy, protecting sudgy is also strange. Sure he can say he was roleblocked, but why not roleblock Hydrad? vigilantes are terrifying! And one that probably wants to semi-confirm themselves! That leaves saying he protected a not-mason. I don't see the deterrent for claiming that. It's so easy to say you forgot about masons, and really you probably won't get suspected for it. Heck, some of you are even giving him towncred! Well I'm not. I don't believe that he could forget about the masons as town. He was one of the first who brought up the connection between sudgy and SK! No, I think it more likely he is scum.

Really the claiming his target isn't even the scummiest part.

This is like, the most convincing post of this whole game.

The vigilante didn't confirm themselves though. There was only 1 night kill, and that was on Sudgy, so clearly scum killed sudgy. Unless vigilante targeted SS, the supposed doctor target. But that makes no sense . Which leads me to think maybe the roleblock was on the Vig and XP isn't a doctor.

vote: XP

Right, Hydrad didn't confirm himself (probably wise), but he could have semi-confirmed himself if he had shot... which scum would try to prevent by blocking him so he wastes his shot.

[Robz888]

Liopoil present the other argument on XP. It was my initial reaction. Maybe the correct one. It's tough.

[Eevee]

Well, that's a helpful and a townie entrance by lio.

People I don't want to lynch today, in order of unwillingness: Sk, Hydrad, silverspawn, lio, Voltaire, kingzog, WW.

[Voltaire]

I'm not sure how you can think XP and I are partners. I started the wagon against him that got him to L1, right?

It does argue against you and XP being on the same scum team. It does not mean you are both scum though.

[Voltaire]

I'm not sure how you can think XP and I are partners. I started the wagon against him that got him to L1, right?

It does argue against you and XP being on the same scum team. It does not mean you are both scum though.

Which I find highly unlikely anyway.

[Voltaire]

DAY 1 FINAL VOTE COUNT

XerxesPraelor (3): sudgy, Kingzog3, chairs
Twistedarcher (7): Eevee, XerxesPraelor, SK, Voltaire, Robz888, silverspawn, jotheonah

Not Voting (3): Witherweaver, Twistedarcher, Hydrad

With 13 alive it took 7 to lynch.

Voltaire and robz are at the critical point in the ladder, and so look scummier. I'm going to go look at Eevee/Voltaire interactions.

I don't get how the first is connected to the second here. Also bear in mind that my vote on TA moved around a lot due to him not being an option/other wagons/back to TA/etc. As in, I don't think this is a useful line of inquiry because everyone's votes are going to be like that. We need to look at what people said as well.