usually you'd be right, mountebank is so good that you may want to open silver/silver to get it faster and skip university. however, i think here you don't, because of wharf. Wharf will let you catch up, you're pretty much guaranteed to win the split [...]
I can hardly believe that university will be fast enough to counter mountebank - almost no matter what brilliant 5's are out there. On the one hand, most of the cards you want, are stop cards: Potion, Mountebank, some universities. On the other hand, your opponent will mountebank you.
Let me do a "quick and dirty" exemplary comparison:
University-Player (called UNI) gains before ...
shuffle 1: Potion, Silver
shuffle 2: University, U1
shuffle 3: University, U2, U3 + Mountebank (from uni) + Copper + Curse (opp's mountebank)
shuffle 4: University, U4, U5, U6 + Mountebank,Wharf (2 uni's) + Copper +Curse (opp's mountebank)
Mountebank-Player (MB) gains before ...
shuffle 1: Silver,Silver
shuffle 2: Mountebank,M1
shuffle 3: Mountebank,M2,M3
shuffle 4: Wharf,M4,M5,M6 + Copper+Curse (opp's mountebank)
Edit: U1 - U6 are the cards UNI might buy during the game, M1 - M6 might be bought bei MB. Please note that from MB's perspective, this is a rather pessimistic prediction, for two reasons:
- I assumed, only one of MB's mountebanks will hit after Shuffle 3 (I'd guess, in 30% of all games, both mountebanks will hit).
- I ignored the risk of a dead move by UNI
Despite this cautios approach, I still don't want to play with UNI's deck. In a one-by-one-comparison, he has
+3 universities,
+1 copper,
+1 curse,
U2,U3 instead of M2,M3 (presumably slightly weaker)
U4,U5,U6 instead of M4,M5,M6 (presumably much weaker)
1 potion instead of a silver.
If we look at the immediate impact, there are 2 additional weak cards (1 copper, 1 curse) and 4 long-term cards (3 uni's, potion).
Furthermore, MB has a stronger economy to buy M4 to M6, they might be a province for the tournaments, some golds to do funny things with wharf, or simply more wharves ...
Thus, MB will still be dominant after 4 shuffles. We are in T12 right now, UNI has 28 cards. And so, it will approximately be T16 when he can shuffle his "catch-up cards".
Way too late, imho: Mountebank/Wharf BM, only hindered by 1copper+1curse, might have three or more provinces right then.
PS:
I admit, that this extrapolation might change a lot in the presence of very strong trashing. In evidence, if instead of silver, U1 - U3 you get four foragers, you might have trimmed your deck to ca. 21 cards in T12.
Then again, there won't be much time left to "win a wharf split".