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[shark_bait]

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Lighthouse, Smugglers, Trade Route, Baron, Island, Marauder, Moneylender, Taxman, Pillage, Saboteur

http://dom.retrobox.eu/?/20140115/log.50ea2963e4b0429cfe091cec.1389809932449.txt

Both of us play similar strategies in this game with Pillage, Maurader and Lighthouse.  Going into the end-game it is a close game.  After demitibat's 27th turn I find myself down 38 to 31 with 2 Provinces left.  This may seem elementary to some but I thought I'd post this game to illustrate this concept in practice. 

Even though there are 2 Provinces left you need to break the PPR.

If I buy a Duchy I am down 38 to 34 and still in need of both Provinces to win.  This is an instance where you have to think before blindly following some set sequence of buying.  In the end because of breaking the PPR I am able to come away with a 43-41 victory.

[Drab Emordnilap]

Is this breaking the rule? I thought the rule was "if there's two Provinces left and buying something else will put you in the lead, buy that".

[rrwoods]

Is this breaking the rule? I thought the rule was "if there's two Provinces left and buying something else will put you in the lead, buy that".

Yup. PPR seems to get misunderstood a bit lately...

The idea is that if something else puts you in the lead and you buy it, now you threaten to win if they buy a province. But if you buy the duchy and you're still behind, their province buy is still safe, so the value of the duchy is much much smaller.

[Awaclus]

Is this breaking the rule? I thought the rule was "if there's two Provinces left and buying something else will put you in the lead, buy that".

Yup. PPR seems to get misunderstood a bit lately...

The idea is that if something else puts you in the lead and you buy it, now you threaten to win if they buy a province. But if you buy the duchy and you're still behind, their province buy is still safe, so the value of the duchy is much much smaller.

The value of the Duchy might be much smaller, but the value of not buying the Province is still the difference between losing and not losing the game.

[flies]

Is this breaking the rule? I thought the rule was "if there's two Provinces left and buying something else will put you in the lead, buy that".

Yup. PPR seems to get misunderstood a bit lately...

The idea is that if something else puts you in the lead and you buy it, now you threaten to win if they buy a province. But if you buy the duchy and you're still behind, their province buy is still safe, so the value of the duchy is much much smaller.

The value of the Duchy might be much smaller, but the value of not buying the Province is still the difference between losing and not losing the game.

no, i said six, not half a dozen 

[KingZog3]

But you also have to consider how often your opponent hits $8. I'll break PPR and risk him buying the province if he almost never hits $8.