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[shraeye]

NOOO.  scotty is NOT today's lynch; he is not scum.

[shraeye]

I'm heartened to see Robz is behind scotty being town too.  Scotty's scumminess has been manufactured by Axxle.  It is a fabrication.


mail-mi, I neeeed your thoughts.

[Robz888]

NOOO.  scotty is NOT today's lynch; he is not scum.

Shraeye, we just have to tune them out.

[pingpongsam]

Very well, Vote: PPS

The IC demanded it, no one will listen to better reasoning.

Thanks for the game.

[Axxle]

PPS, stop. If you do this we have zero chance of lynching scott and we lose.

[shraeye]

Thanks, Axxle.  But it's not scott.

[pingpongsam]

PPS, stop. If you do this we have zero chance of lynching scott and we lose.

Apparently only you and I see it this way. Apparently there is more room for debate between Axxle vs Scotty than there is for Axxle vs PPS tomorrow despite the firm resolve of 2 players to auto-lynch Axxle tomorrow. The false dichotomy of PPS/Axxle is apparently best resolved today when it will be a forgone conclusion who dies tomorrow than to litmus test the outlier and have a real debate tomorrow.

[shraeye]

PPS, stop buddying up with scum.  It's backwards and weird.

[Robz888]

Actually, a lot of good is coming of this, because I think the odds of shraeye being scum in spite of the RBing is dropping to zero.

[pingpongsam]

It is a forgone conclusion who dies tomorrow if we do not lynch scotty today. Personally, I prefer to keep my options open than to arbitrarily and unnecessarily close them. But then, I tend to prefer winning as well. With an illogical IC in the way there is no way to win. If the ability to win has been removed then there's not much point in playing.

[pingpongsam]

Actually, a lot of good is coming of this, because I think the odds of shraeye being scum in spite of the RBing is dropping to zero.

shraeye isn't scum, that concept didn't need strengthening.

[scott_pilgrim]

Very well, Vote: PPS

The IC demanded it, no one will listen to better reasoning.

Thanks for the game.

What is this "better reasoning"?  You've explained why you think we shouldn't lynch you, but that doesn't help us because we don't know your alignment.  Obviously if we knew you were town we wouldn't be voting for you, your "probability" thing assumes you're town.  (If it doesn't I totally don't know where you get that we have a higher chance of winning if we don't lynch you...)  If it's random among me, you, and Axxle which of us is scum, then town has a 2/3 chance of winning.  If you're Robz or shraeye or me and you're sure I'm town, then obviously we just lynch both you and Axxle and then it's a sure win.  By voting yourself you're saying you're so sure Axxle is town that you're willing to kill a guaranteed townie just to improve the chances of lynching me.

[Robz888]

It is a forgone conclusion who dies tomorrow if we do not lynch scotty today. Personally, I prefer to keep my options open than to arbitrarily and unnecessarily close them. But then, I tend to prefer winning as well. With an illogical IC in the way there is no way to win. If the ability to win has been removed then there's not much point in playing.

PPS, are you as certain about Scot as you were about mcmc? ADK? Axxle, the other five times you voted for him because you thought it was that or you?

[Robz888]

Actually, a lot of good is coming of this, because I think the odds of shraeye being scum in spite of the RBing is dropping to zero.

shraeye isn't scum, that concept didn't need strengthening.

It will let me sleep better at night, that's for sure.

[shraeye]

This explanation is clear, and is basically exactly what I was trying to piece together coherently.  Thanks scott.

[pingpongsam]

Very well, Vote: PPS

The IC demanded it, no one will listen to better reasoning.

Thanks for the game.

What is this "better reasoning"?  You've explained why you think we shouldn't lynch you, but that doesn't help us because we don't know your alignment.  Obviously if we knew you were town we wouldn't be voting for you, your "probability" thing assumes you're town.  (If it doesn't I totally don't know where you get that we have a higher chance of winning if we don't lynch you...)  If it's random among me, you, and Axxle which of us is scum, then town has a 2/3 chance of winning.  If you're Robz or shraeye or me and you're sure I'm town, then obviously we just lynch both you and Axxle and then it's a sure win.  By voting yourself you're saying you're so sure Axxle is town that you're willing to kill a guaranteed townie just to improve the chances of lynching me.

If we lynch either Axxle or PPS today we lynch the other tomorrow, that is forgone and therefore a closed option and it resolves to a 30% chance of success. If we lynch scotty today we then reserve the forgone decision for tomorrow where it can be debated, if it needs to be. That means, if we mislynched you we reserve a 50% chance of getting right tomorrow.

I cannot weight Axxle over scotty in terms of who I am more certain is scum, they are 50/50 in my mind. I can however, weight which one is best lynched today using the above logic.

You are perfectly correct that it is therefore totally illogical to vote myself but the IC you are sheeping demands it. I am voting myself for the same reasons you are voting me. So, you tell me what is wrong with that reason.

[Robz888]

PPS, it's a good performance, but it's over for you.

As long as mail-mi is good with the plan, yes?

[shraeye]

Axxle and scotty are truly 50/50 on who is scum???  I see no case on scotty that compares in any way to the case against Axxle.

[pingpongsam]

PPS, it's a good performance, but it's over for you.

As long as mail-mi is good with the plan, yes?

I don't see why you need mail-mi when you've got Axxle, it must be him or me and it isn't him so why wouldn't he vote me? It's not like you would listen to mail-mi if he disagreed anyhow. Why scotty isn't an option is completely lost on me and it will be why we lost this game. You will all say it is because PPS threw himself on the sword but it will be because no one would consider the third option and artificially forced the game to a premature end. If Axxle flips scum tomorrow I will be relieved but I will count ourselves stupidly lucky as opposed to intelligently crafty.

[pingpongsam]

Axxle and scotty are truly 50/50 on who is scum???  I see no case on scotty that compares in any way to the case against Axxle.

Oh, there's a far stronger case on Axxle, and you're going to get your Axxle lynch regardless so I don't know what the problem is. Logic supports lynching scotty first. Axxle's behavior at the end of today looks far more towny to me than scotty's. If you are certain that between Axxle/scotty it must be Axxle then by all means, eliminate me from the pool. I would trust shraeye's certainty miles over Robz'.

[Robz888]

We need mail-mi to consent that he understands everything, and who not to roleblock, and stuff.

[pingpongsam]

Why is Axxle not voting me? He's for sure dead tomorrow regardless.

I want everyone but Axxle to answer that question.

[shraeye]

you want answers from people other than axxle?  Or only from axxle?

[shraeye]

If axxle gleefully hammers you after declaring you town, and when it's clear that he's in people sights tomorrow, that's just nonsensical.

his only chance is to go full-bore into scotty, while letting your lynch happen "despite" him saying that you're town.  He's taking the only reasonable path for scum to take right now.

[pingpongsam]

If axxle gleefully hammers you after declaring you town, and when it's clear that he's in people sights tomorrow, that's just nonsensical.

his only chance is to go full-bore into scotty, while letting your lynch happen "despite" him saying that you're town.  He's taking the only reasonable path for scum to take right now.

Nah, Axxle had every reason to switch his vote to me when I self-voted. The scotty thing won't happen and he knows it. It would be best with such an open excuse to make sure PPS died before someone swiveled back to Axxle today. According to your logic, he's taking the only reasonable path regardless of his alignment since he knows his goose is cooked tomorrow and he will lose.