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[Robz888]

So...

Welcome to MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia!

Players:
1.  Eevee - inhabiting the body of The Lich, was a Town Cop, removed from the party on Night 2.
2.  scott_pilgrim -- Claimed VT
3.  Robz888 -- VT
4.  mail-mi -- Claimed Town Roleblocker
5.  yuma - inhabiting the body of Lady Rainicorn, was the Mafia Godfather, sent to sleepy town on Day 2.
6.  mcmcsalot - inhabiting the body of Marceline, was a Vanilla Townie, got really sick from brown goo on D3.
7.  A Drowned Kernel - inhabiting the body of Gunter the Penguin, was a Town Cop, removed from the party on Night 3.
8.  pingpongsam -- Claimed VT.
9.  raerae - inhabiting the body of The Ice King, was the Mafia Strongman, sent to sleepy town on Day 1.
10. AndrewisFTTW - inhabiting the body of The Goliad, was a Vanilla Townie, removed from the party on Night 1.
11. shraeye -- Claimed 1-shot Doc.
12. Axxle -- Claimed 1-shot Cop.

[mail-mi]

Yeah. It's just that, I mean, you should have bet against me being scum and just rolled with that, because the chance was so small. You guarded against they very unlikely thing, at the cost of making it significantly harder to win from my perspective. Oh well.

and there's still teh chance that u, as scum, roleblocked me and killed ADK, but it's so small that I'm squishing it and ignoring it.

[mail-mi]

wait...

11. shraeye -- Claimed 1-shot Doc.

[/quote]
who did you protect and what night? why did you not protect our claimed cop N3?

[Robz888]

wait...

11. shraeye -- Claimed 1-shot Doc.

who did you protect and what night? why did you not protect our claimed cop N3?
[/quote]

Shraeye, don't answer that.

[mail-mi]

wait...

11. shraeye -- Claimed 1-shot Doc.

who did you protect and what night? why did you not protect our claimed cop N3?

Shraeye, don't answer that.

why shouldn't he?

[Axxle]

Shraeye, don't answer that.

If he protected Andrew N1 it'll confirm mail-mi as town.

[Robz888]

He might still have the shot, and we would rather keep secret whether he does or not.

[Robz888]

In that rare circumstance, you're correct.

Shraeye, I guess just tell us if you Doctored Andrew on Night 1.

[Axxle]

Or it just confirms him as scum roleblocker... silly me.

[Robz888]

Man, do I wish one of you was theorel right now.

Okay, so here's what I am doing... I am elimianting all the setup scenarios that impossible, since everyone has claimed. For instance, I eliminated, all the rolls that generate a Doctor, since we don't have any full Doctors. Same for all the Vig and Mason scenarios.

[Robz888]

Myself, mcmc, and Andrew are VTs for certain. That means three of the six dice rolls were in the VT category. That leaves three dice rolls to generate the rest of the setup.

[mail-mi]

Myself, mcmc, and Andrew are VTs for certain. That means three of the six dice rolls were in the VT category. That leaves three dice rolls to generate the rest of the setup.

um, no it doesn't. It means that you were 3 of the VT's that were filled in after the 6 dice rolls happened.

[Robz888]

Gar. This isn't going to work.

Damn you ashersky. Damn you and your ireducible setup.

[Robz888]

Well, anyway, here's what I have left. 6 dice rolles produced this.

E Roles*
E = 1-Shot Doctor OR 1-Shot Cop
EE = 1-Shot Doctor OR 1-Shot Cop x2
EEE = Doctor OR Cop; 1-Shot Doctor OR 1-Shot Cop
EEEE = Doctor OR Cop; 1-Shot Doctor OR 1-Shot Cop x2

C Roles
C = 1-Shot Cop
CC = Cop
CCC = Cop; 1-Shot Cop


Blocker Roles
B = Roleblocker


Scum Roles (In addition to the Godfather)
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

[Axxle]

If everyone is telling the truth: EEECBT and ECCCBT work.

If mailmi is lying: EEECTT and ECCCTT work.

If shraeye is lying: CCCBTT and EEEBTT work.

If I'm lying: ECCBTT works.

There's probably more scenarios that I didn't see immediately, but the game isn't solvable this way.

[Robz888]

Wait, scratch that, I messed up.

[Robz888]

Yeah. I think I really may have led us astray trying to do this sort of analysis. Sorry guys.

[shraeye]

sooo, we still lynching Axxle and winning this?

[pingpongsam]

I do feel that Axxle's claim is the most incongruous. I feel that if it were true he would have said something before now. While I was curious about shraeye's claims I A) find them believable enough to not press and B) find Axxle's question quite fishingy.

I find mail-mi's claim the most believable and am willing to consider him town based on it. It explains his position on Robz and I think the role itself is the harder one to select from the possibilities unlike shraeye's 1-shot doc claim.

I'm not so sure mass claiming was a great idea but I do think it gives Town information we did not have to work with before and I feel we were really shooting in the dark before. It is likely scum's chances of succeeding were increased in a much smaller proportion than our chances of success were increased with the claims.

As it stands, I am a bit suspicious of shraeye and am currently unwilling to lynch Axxle as long as he is the only champion of that flip.

My lynch preference is ordered by preference:

Axxle
Shraeye
scotty
mail-mi
PPS
Robz

I put myself ahead of Robz because I think my flipping Town would be better than losing an IC. I am choosing believe mail-mi's claim and it confirms Robz as the IC everyone believes him to be. If scum!Robz wins this game, though, I reserve a big fat "I Told You So" to everyone.

[shraeye]

mail-mi's claim is unfortunate, but 100% believable.  I would expect scum to fake claim here, and wouldn't be disappointed at all if people were picking between me and Axxle.  PPS remains towny, and scotty remains null-towny.  So my list is axxle>scotty>PPS>Robz=mailmi=shraeye.  I really only want Axxle here.

[Robz888]

Well, but look, you give good reason for me to insist on PPS today, because you will still be around to lynch Axxle tomorrow. Whereas if I am right, and we lynch Axxle, and I die, you will do something stupid like lynch Scotty.

[Robz888]

My preference is PPS > Axxle > shraeye ................................. > Scotty

Mail-mi is confirmed town as far as I am concern, don't even consider it.

[Axxle]

Show me one place I should have claimed and I'll tell you why I didn't. Just because you think a play is wrong doesn't make it so.

[shraeye]

My preference is PPS > Axxle > shraeye ................................. > Scotty

Mail-mi is confirmed town as far as I am concern, don't even consider it.

Scotty is really far from me wanted to lynch too.  I think PPS is townier, but neither is obv-conf-OMG town like you and mail-mi.  I have exactly 1 scum read right now.

[pingpongsam]

I have exactly 1 scum read right now.

Yeah, Axxle is the only person I can actually say I have a scum read on. Everyone else I must speculate and stretch on. That said, I had a massive scum read on mcmcsalot, so...