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[Robz888]

But I do agree that if I were Axxle and had used my shot on yuma I would have brought it up at some point D2.

That's true, too.

Axxle, why didn't you bring this up?

[Axxle]

I forgot I made that second one. 'Wifoming' is the wrong word but I was hinting that I got a town result.

PEdit: But you're not me though.

PEdit2: Because it's useless info? I guess percentage wise he becomes less likely to be scum but it's not impossible.

If I was scum I would've fakeclaimed right away. There'd be no consequence.

[Robz888]

I forgot I made that second one. 'Wifoming' is the wrong word but I was hinting that I got a town result.

PEdit: But you're not me though.

PEdit2: Because it's useless info? I guess percentage wise he becomes less likely to be scum but it's not impossible.

If I was scum I would've fakeclaimed right away. There'd be no consequence.

Right away, as in when?

But why had that information, is what I am saying. You didn't need to protect your PR status. It was already used up.

[Axxle]

I forgot I made that second one. 'Wifoming' is the wrong word but I was hinting that I got a town result.

PEdit: But you're not me though.

PEdit2: Because it's useless info? I guess percentage wise he becomes less likely to be scum but it's not impossible.

If I was scum I would've fakeclaimed right away. There'd be no consequence.

Right away, as in when?

But why had that information, is what I am saying. You didn't need to protect your PR status. It was already used up.

I'd rather keep scum sweating as to what the town PRs could be rather than come up with next to useless info.

[Axxle]

Right away as to save yuma.

[shraeye]

Shraeye's here, too. WHat do you think, shraeye?

I think a massclaim right now could help things, but I'm still hot on Axxle.  If you call an order for claims to come in, I'm down with it.  I think Axxle's claim sounds exactly like scum trying to buy time with an investigative claim that is incongruous with their actual behavior on the specified day.


Why'd he claim anyway?  Before waiting to see what Robz's specified order to PPS was?  Suppose PPS were scum and PPS was picked first.  Town wins.  Suppose some third person were scum and PPS was picked first.  Then Axxle can gain plenty of info based on who's super-excited to support that plan. 

Suppose Axxle is picked first, THEN he could have PR claimed; putting us essentially in this situation.  It's just better play to pick up those possible reactions first, and that line of play was precluded by this early claim.

[scott_pilgrim]

I think probability tells us roughly nothing about Axxle's claim, I get about 3.3% chance of rolling CC and 2% chance of rolling EEE.*  Since we know that a cop exists, it's probably going to come out somewhere in the 30-70% range as to whether we do or don't have the 1-shot cop as well.  That's not really what I was looking for, if it had been like <10% or >90% it would have been worth noting but it looks like it's not so extreme.  As always with math it's possible I made mistakes so someone can check but I don't think the set-up is going to tell us anything there.  If we do a mass claim it could, so that's still a consideration.


*I didn't take into account that we know we have at most 2 T's or that we know we don't have any M's because that would have made it super messy but it shouldn't affect it too much.

[Robz888]

Well, since I already have Axxle and PPS's claims, (1-shot Cop and VT), I would like shraeye to full claim next, followed by mail-mi, followed by Scotty.

[shraeye]

1-shot Doc.

[Robz888]

Thanks. Mail-mi, you are up.

[ashersky]

Ashersky: What takes precedence, scum RB or town RB?

In all cases, if they exist, a mafia roleblocker's action is processed before a town roleblocker's action in the resolution list.

[Robz888]

Thank you, that's what I thought.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi! I see that you are online. You are needed to claim, please.

[pingpongsam]

I'm back in for an hour before bed.

[mail-mi]

Thanks. Mail-mi, you are up.

I am a Roleblocker. N1, I targeted Shraeye, and the kill still happened. Taht's why I have a townread on him. N2 i missed the submission deadline...oops...heheheh.... and N3 targeted Robz because I really wanted to be sure that he was town. The kill still went through, however, he could have roleblocked me, but that's pretty much out of my mind.

[Robz888]

Thanks. Mail-mi, you are up.

I am a Roleblocker. N1, I targeted Shraeye, and the kill still happened. Taht's why I have a townread on him. N2 i missed the submission deadline...oops...heheheh.... and N3 targeted Robz because I really wanted to be sure that he was town. The kill still went through, however, he could have roleblocked me, but that's pretty much out of my mind.

OH MY GOD.

[Robz888]

Do you realize how huge a mistake you made? If you had blocked anyone else--literally, anyone else--we would probably be winning for sure?

[Robz888]

Day vig: Mail-mi

[Robz888]

And you forgot to shoot night 2? You could have cleared two of the remaining people by now.

[scott_pilgrim]

I am a VT

[Robz888]

I guess there's no use getting mad, but man am I demoralized now...

[mail-mi]

Do you realize how huge a mistake you made? If you had blocked anyone else--literally, anyone else--we would probably be winning for sure?

I wanted to be sure that we weren't putting literally all of our faith and trust into the remaining scum!

[mail-mi]

And you forgot to shoot night 2? You could have cleared two of the remaining people by now.

Yes. I did. I missed the deadline because of a no-electronics rule enforced by my parents that I broke. Several times. I'm soooooooooooooooooo sorry. -_-

[Robz888]

Yeah. It's just that, I mean, you should have bet against me being scum and just rolled with that, because the chance was so small. You guarded against they very unlikely thing, at the cost of making it significantly harder to win from my perspective. Oh well.

[Robz888]

I mean, I guess, I do absolutely believe you, so that's something positive.