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[pingpongsam]

Here are my thoughts in no particular order:

If I go by my reads yesterday I pick Axxle.

I could still be a viable lynch today. I don't know if scum wants to go there today or not. ADK came around yesterday but mcmc wasn't coming off a PPS lynch so it may look like I did a fine job of offing my detractors if you think I am scum.

I was willing to drop the notion that Robz might be scum yesterday and I don't think it is totally worth pursuing today but if we go through another mislynch cycle and he's still alive and I'm still alive tomorrow I would be forced to take it into serious consideration. All we have is Eevee is saying something that certainly looks a soft-claim but might not be. That this concerned me earlier makes it feel like one of those gut things. Eevee is either groaning that an obvious soft-claim isn't being accepted or he's groaning that he inadvertently made what amounts to an obvious soft-claim. The closer we get to LYLO the more credence I give the possibility that Eevee was misinterpreted.

IIRC, all remaining players would have had to double bus their partner except for me and scotty. I did not vote for raerae D1 and scotty did not vote for yuma D2. Axxle and Robz I can see dancing the double bus, especially Robz. Shraeye, I dunno. mail-mi, no way.

That's about all I have at all, nothing held back. Prefer Axxle, still considering Robz. Would certainly entertain cases on anyone. Expect someone to reignite a PPS witchhunt but not so sure scum would do that today but definitely tomorrow.

[Axxle]

I want to lynch anyone with doubts about Robz, because that's just going to be absolutely terrible to keep them around in LYLO.

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

[pingpongsam]

I want to lynch anyone with doubts about Robz, because that's just going to be absolutely terrible to keep them around in LYLO.

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

See this is the scummy thing. Lynch the guy playing the game but don't bother to play it yourself.

Why are you 100% sold on Robz being town? How can you be so perfectly certain? I say there is some room for doubt and you scream for my blood. You maintain that there is no room for doubt as if one single piece of a sentence cannot possibly be taken out of context.

Assume for one hypothetical moment that Robz is scum. Does any of his behavior represent scummy behavior? I think so. His declaration that mcmcsalot was absolutely certain to be the final scum yesterday strikes me as super scummy. In fact, it is the damned declarations of such certainty I find so scummy. why so certain?

Maybe it's because I'd rather lynch you first?

[pingpongsam]

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

Practically always a scum suggestion.

Yesterday was a perfectly useless day. We already knew ADK was Town Cop so his NK flip gave us no information. mcmcsalot refused to defend himself and he wouldn't make a case on anyone but me so his flip was basically uninformative as well because no one can be faulted for voting him and I have no reason to believe scum even helped lynch him. If we had flipped me yesterday we'd be flipping him today.

Who do you think gets NK'd if we No Lynch today? If you have answers to that question then you've sufficiently narrowed your lynch pool to take No Lynch off the table IMHO. In my case I think we either lose Robz if he is indeed Town or we lose me. Of course, I was already out of my own lynch pool.

I think trying to make a case for No Lynch is the safe scum gambit for avoiding making a case on anyone.

[Axxle]

I want to lynch anyone with doubts about Robz, because that's just going to be absolutely terrible to keep them around in LYLO.

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

See this is the scummy thing. Lynch the guy playing the game but don't bother to play it yourself.

Why are you 100% sold on Robz being town? How can you be so perfectly certain? I say there is some room for doubt and you scream for my blood. You maintain that there is no room for doubt as if one single piece of a sentence cannot possibly be taken out of context.

Assume for one hypothetical moment that Robz is scum. Does any of his behavior represent scummy behavior? I think so. His declaration that mcmcsalot was absolutely certain to be the final scum yesterday strikes me as super scummy. In fact, it is the damned declarations of such certainty I find so scummy. why so certain?

Maybe it's because I'd rather lynch you first?

I feel like he's acting really town and the Eevee thing solidifies it. Cops should be trusted to breadcrumb.

[Axxle]

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

Practically always a scum suggestion.

Yesterday was a perfectly useless day. We already knew ADK was Town Cop so his NK flip gave us no information. mcmcsalot refused to defend himself and he wouldn't make a case on anyone but me so his flip was basically uninformative as well because no one can be faulted for voting him and I have no reason to believe scum even helped lynch him. If we had flipped me yesterday we'd be flipping him today.

Who do you think gets NK'd if we No Lynch today? If you have answers to that question then you've sufficiently narrowed your lynch pool to take No Lynch off the table IMHO. In my case I think we either lose Robz if he is indeed Town or we lose me. Of course, I was already out of my own lynch pool.

I think trying to make a case for No Lynch is the safe scum gambit for avoiding making a case on anyone.

I just wanted to remind people it's an option. I think chances are that today is bad for it, but tomorrow it's absolutely the right choice (only 2 town have to be right instead of 3). If I die today or tonight I want people to realize that.

[Axxle]

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

Practically always a scum suggestion.

Yesterday was a perfectly useless day. We already knew ADK was Town Cop so his NK flip gave us no information. mcmcsalot refused to defend himself and he wouldn't make a case on anyone but me so his flip was basically uninformative as well because no one can be faulted for voting him and I have no reason to believe scum even helped lynch him. If we had flipped me yesterday we'd be flipping him today.

Who do you think gets NK'd if we No Lynch today? If you have answers to that question then you've sufficiently narrowed your lynch pool to take No Lynch off the table IMHO. In my case I think we either lose Robz if he is indeed Town or we lose me. Of course, I was already out of my own lynch pool.

I think trying to make a case for No Lynch is the safe scum gambit for avoiding making a case on anyone.

I just wanted to remind people it's an option. I think chances are that today is bad for it, but tomorrow it's absolutely the right choice (only 2 town have to be right instead of 3). If I die today or tonight I want people to realize that.

Actually now that I think about this more I might be wrong.

[Robz888]

Axxle, you are correct. We will absolutely lynch today. Tomorrow, if the game continues, the correct move is absolutely No Lynch.

[shraeye]

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

This is manifestly untrue.  We have 2 chances, without beneficial night results.

[mail-mi]

I want to lynch anyone with doubts about Robz, because that's just going to be absolutely terrible to keep them around in LYLO.

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

I wouldn't go so far as to say "Lynch he who doubts Robz without question!" But Robz is town.

[shraeye]

I want to lynch anyone with doubts about Robz, because that's just going to be absolutely terrible to keep them around in LYLO.

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

Actually would a No Lynch be helpful right now?

I wouldn't go so far as to say "Lynch he who doubts Robz without question!" But Robz is town.

I agree with this.

[shraeye]

on both counts.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 4.1:

Not Voting (6):  scott_pilgrim, Robz888, mail-mi, pingpongsam, shraeye, Axxle

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 4 ends on March 25 at 8:00 a.m.

[Axxle]

It should be pretty easy to win this, we have a ridiculous number of chances.

This is manifestly untrue.  We have 2 chances, without beneficial night results.

We have no vig and no masons, we'll probably have beneficial night results.

[Robz888]

^I don't know about that, but there's no reason to speculate.

[Axxle]

^I don't know about that, but there's no reason to speculate.

"We have no vig and no masons, we'll probably have beneficial night results."
Sounds like a reason to speculate.

It's NOT a reason to out anyone prematurely though.

[Robz888]

Speculation today will only help scum tonight. Tomorrow is full-claim day, regardless.

[Axxle]

Speculation today will only help scum tonight. Tomorrow is full-claim day, regardless.

I don't mean open speculation, I mean we each individually should think about what's possible this game.

[pingpongsam]

prod: scotty

[ashersky]

prod: scotty

Sent.

[mail-mi]

So, according to my D1 theory, Scotty is the only not conf!town on the raerae wagon #1 so vote: scotty

[pingpongsam]

Can you post some of the more cogent points of this theory?

[shraeye]

Indeed, mailmi; I'm not sure why scotty comes off the scummiest of people on raerae's wagon.


I'm still most suspicious of Axxle's voting history.

He was the "I'll hammer in exactly 30 mins"-*hammers in exactly 30 mins* sort of vote that feels mostly like scum being extra careful not to be accused of ending discussion, or swooping in for credit.  I don't think town does this so by the book, when it was clear that raerae was being lynched and that she wasn't going to claim anything.

Then on day 1, he jumped immediately at scotty, for his interaction with raerae.  Then said

Yuma's got some pretty weak reasons for not being on raerae, but I feel like he'd try a bit harder to find better ones if he was scum.

Really weak accuse/not-accuse on yuma.  He voted yuma, realizing that this is exactly what lead me to pair yuma/raerae together.

However, as soon as steam picked up on PPS, Axxle was on that like white on rice.  He then switched back to yuma once Robz jumped in and declared yuma the D2 lynch.  At that point yuma's lynch was inevitable.

He was on both wagons, but he only joined in the final lynches of his partners when they were absolutely inevitable.

[shraeye]

vote: axxle

[mail-mi]

Can you post some of the more cogent points of this theory?

Well my theory was that the initial raerae wagon was started up on scum to give her a day 1 wagon, then use that as a way to get her not lynched in the following days. Well, Scotty is the only one not scum on that wagon. I think that scotty would probably bus, because I have a bit of a hard time believing that it was all town on a scum wagon.