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Author Topic: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Town Wins on D5!)  (Read 129929 times)

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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #925 on: March 12, 2014, 03:39:49 am »

Interesting things--things I forgot about--happen after that. I start a mini wagon on Scotty. I do think Scotty reacted pretty scummy to it, but... Yuma clearly preferred it as the alternative to raerae. His best last effort to achieve a lynch on a non-mafia was to pivot toward Scotty. Note that this wasn't an entirely desperate thing. He had a good shot at achieving it. It was my idea, I trusted yuma, Scotty was kind of scummy, we had Eevee on board for it.

Scotty is very, very unlikely to be scum, based on Day 1. Whereas mcmc did exactly what scum would have done, especially in comparison to Scotty.
And if it had gone through, how good he and raerae would have looked. It also explains why yuma was so frustrated Day 2. I'm liking scott more and more.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #926 on: March 12, 2014, 03:48:58 am »

Interesting things--things I forgot about--happen after that. I start a mini wagon on Scotty. I do think Scotty reacted pretty scummy to it, but... Yuma clearly preferred it as the alternative to raerae. His best last effort to achieve a lynch on a non-mafia was to pivot toward Scotty. Note that this wasn't an entirely desperate thing. He had a good shot at achieving it. It was my idea, I trusted yuma, Scotty was kind of scummy, we had Eevee on board for it.

Scotty is very, very unlikely to be scum, based on Day 1. Whereas mcmc did exactly what scum would have done, especially in comparison to Scotty.
And if it had gone through, how good he and raerae would have looked. It also explains why yuma was so frustrated Day 2. I'm liking scott more and more.

No way. If it had gone through, he still would have been down a partner. Scum teams that lose people on Day 1 go on to lose the game, with rare exception. Busing rarely works, and yuma knows that.

Look man, I'm telling you it's highly improbable.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #927 on: March 12, 2014, 03:49:17 am »

You are just wrong to prefer the Scotty lynch to the mcmc. Absolutely, completely wrong.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #928 on: March 12, 2014, 03:50:23 am »

I mean, we know yuma didn't want to bus, because he didn't bus. He tossed out the L-2 vote for raerae and then took it back in a move of desperation to get some other lynch.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #929 on: March 12, 2014, 08:30:37 am »

I'm in total agreement that mcmc is the other scum. I felt ADK was the overwhelmingly best choice until his claim but consistently found mcmc to be the only viable alternative. I felt his response to the notion that vigs should shoot him could be a concealed knowledge that he has a decent chance of roleblocking the vig and that his reaction to the idea we would lynch him today was concealed resignation that his already slim chances of actually making it to a win were finally just ended without protracting it any further. Speaking of reaction reads, when ADK was apologizing for his bad play immediately prior to his claim I felt it seemed fairly sincere even though I was still certain he was the scum. It just didn't feel like scum throwing in the towel but really more like town owning bad play. I guess, I'm saying lal that because when it comes down to it I play a pretty terrible solve the setup game or a logical deduction game ala xeiron but I play an extremely good psychological/emotional game and these are my reads in that department and thus I do support a

Vote: mcmcsalot
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #930 on: March 12, 2014, 09:22:01 am »

okay waste your time lynching me. I am really not in the mood to defend myself at all. I am however town, do what you want with it. My guess for the last scum is still PPS, but who knows, I got nothing past that.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #931 on: March 12, 2014, 09:22:38 am »

okay waste your time lynching me. I am really not in the mood to defend myself at all. I am however town, do what you want with it. My guess for the last scum is still PPS, but who knows, I got nothing past that.

I don't think mail-mi is scummy, axxle could be, scott could be, who else is there?
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #932 on: March 12, 2014, 09:46:42 am »

Unvote until I see where shraeye stands on mcmcsalot. I know he is interested in at least looking at some of the other guys. Out of scotty, mail-mi and Axxle I would have to pick Axxle. He did some things that I just don't think scum would do but are not completely outside the bounds of what scum colud do. I think mail-mi and scotty both operated outside the parameters of anything self-serving scum would do. I'm open to reading anyone's analysis on anyone, though, because I am surely still tunneled from where I was earlier.
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mail-mi

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #933 on: March 12, 2014, 09:56:59 am »

So yeah mcmc's voting history looks bad, but I mean it has to be either him or scotty. It has to. And I'm fine with lynching either one first.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #934 on: March 12, 2014, 10:08:22 am »

So yeah mcmc's voting history looks bad, but I mean it has to be either him or scotty. It has to. And I'm fine with lynching either one first.

My voting history looks bad, I wanted to lynch raerae, I want to lynch pps, why do people think he's town now?
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #935 on: March 12, 2014, 02:32:08 pm »

I like Robz's case, vote: mcmcsalot
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #936 on: March 12, 2014, 03:28:56 pm »

I like Robz's case, vote: mcmcsalot
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #937 on: March 12, 2014, 03:47:33 pm »

I have to go back and read shraeye. I know I picked up an obvtown move he made and assigned him town status from that point forward. I don't recall what that thing was and I'm interested to see if it sticks out again.
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #938 on: March 12, 2014, 03:49:15 pm »

I have to go back and read shraeye. I know I picked up an obvtown move he made and assigned him town status from that point forward. I don't recall what that thing was and I'm interested to see if it sticks out again.
He's either town or super-bussing.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #939 on: March 12, 2014, 04:10:43 pm »

First thing that sticks out is raerae and yuma get a decent bus on shraeye very early in the game.

He ends up voting yuma while successfully defending himself without looking scummy doing it. He didn't waver from the yuma lynch when Robz started talking against it.

He goes on to roughly read town where we now know there is town. This, in and of itself, can certainly be a scumtell. He seems really committed to a yuma lynch which may come off as a cred move later.

Oh, he sees yuma isn't going anywhere and puts raerae to L-2. When yuma does his vote waffling shraeye states it as the obvious scum activity it was, he doesn't leave an out at all. He dares the raerae lynch which Robz agrees to. He insistently maintainins a vote on raerae and calling out yuma as a partner even saying he wants yuma's head D2. I really don't think scum would be this brazen on D1 and if shraeye is the other partner then raerae and yuma hate his guts right now.

D2 he goes straight to yuma. the PPS thing starts getting geared up and he flat out prefers yuma over PPS which, for me, is a pretty big towntell. He townreads me, Robz and scotty. He will not back off yuma.

Today he has encouraged us out of the PPS/ADK tunnel consistently well ahead of ADK's claim.

From that I maintain a very strong town read on shraeye. There is the possibility that he outright raped his partners back to back D1/D2 and thinks he can leverage that for the win through the multiple days to follow. If that were the case I think he would not be such a dissenting voice when it was clearly going to be easy to lynch either PPS or ADK.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #940 on: March 12, 2014, 04:41:12 pm »

The argument that like Scotty is scum who was busing I think applies much better to shraeye. Shraeye's dedication to lynching raerae and Yuma as so strident, so accurate... It was almost uncanny.  Town is rarely on top of things that well.

That said, it's probably a losing strategy, and mcmc is manifestly scummier.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #941 on: March 12, 2014, 04:51:27 pm »

Well, only guy I haven't explicitly re-read with the exception of Robz who we are all gonna die anyway if he's scum is Axxle.

Axxle voted me right off the bat for the BMO claim. But he was quick to move onto yuma. then jumps towards shraeye, seems to be well-paced quasi-RVS with intent to gauge reactions so far.

Hints he was masons with Eevee, was this possible?

Announced intent to hammer on raerae and put her back at L-1 when ADK unvoted her but then unvoted himself when yuma pressured him, hmmmmm. Explains it all away and goes back to shraeye vote.

Flirts with other wagons; votes scotty but indicates he would still hammer raerae, this does looks like the hammer cred game. Gets dfrunk and joins shraeye as the second vote on yuma, wow this does look fishy. I join this yuma vote and he begins to spin me as scum.

yuma argues with shraeye's vote on him and Axxle responds by unvoting yuma. shortly he says yuma "townslipped". Axxle hammers raerae, for cred? It is not at all clear, let's go look at D2.

Goes straight for a scotty vote as a raerae wagon analysis. Defends yuma's D1 behavior which was so scummy it dripped scum and then sees the stupidity of that and votes yuma. Still contends scotty may be a decent lynch due to raerae leaving him alone D1.

The seed has sprouted time to start the lynch-PPS campaign. vote PPS because he is the easy mislynch. Seems bemused by my antagonizing of yuma, maintains we are both scummy.

When the going gets tough on yuma he decides to put him at L-1. I have to say this move really does look towny. yuma or me could have easily been axed and while yuma was sure to happen there was no need to force it to happen for the cred when there was some possibility it could be deflected onto me. He even asks me to hammer which actually looks pretty cred-grabby to me now. Encourages ADK to hammer as well. hmmmmm

D3 he goes straight to the PPS. I give him town cred for pointing out that Robz was soft-resulted by Eevee.

He admits he was autopilot for the PPS lynch, unvotes and says he will reread. The ADK claim comes out and all the rules have since changed. Back to a scott vote after we sort out the setup implications.


wow, so I have to put Axxle firmly into the null to scummy category from that reread.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #942 on: March 12, 2014, 04:56:19 pm »

Okay, I just reread my own reread and I would dial Axxle back to just plain old NULL. Inscrutably null. The tough sell on anyone other than mcmcsalot is that all the other possibilities had to have double bussed back to back which while not entirely outside the bounds of reason doesn't apply to mcmcsalot thus making him the more likely culprit.

Intent to vote mcmcsalot pending any new information or perspective.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #943 on: March 12, 2014, 05:48:48 pm »

Vote Count 3.7:

scott_pilgrim (3): mail-mi, Axxle, mcmcsalot
Axxle (1): shraeye
mcmcsalot (2): Robz888, scott_pilgrim

Not Voting (2): A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends at 5:20 p.m. on Wednesday, March 19.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2014, 06:19:06 pm by ashersky »
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #944 on: March 12, 2014, 09:52:53 pm »

Vote: mcmc

I'd prefer scott but can't get anything done without robz approval apparently.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #945 on: March 12, 2014, 09:56:48 pm »

Vote: mcmc

I'd prefer scott but can't get anything done without robz approval apparently.

seriously?

vote: axxle
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #946 on: March 12, 2014, 10:05:04 pm »

Vote Count 3.8:

scott_pilgrim (2): mail-mi, mcmcsalot
Axxle (1): shraeye
mcmcsalot (3): Robz888, scott_pilgrim, Axxle

Not Voting (2): A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends at 5:20 p.m. on Wednesday, March 19.
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #947 on: March 12, 2014, 10:17:08 pm »

Vote: mcmc

I'd prefer scott but can't get anything done without robz approval apparently.

seriously?

vote: axxle
Revoting me, A+
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #948 on: March 12, 2014, 10:26:26 pm »

Vote: mcmc

I'd prefer scott but can't get anything done without robz approval apparently.

seriously?

vote: axxle
Revoting me, A+
Sorry, that was a bit too grouchy. I signed a civility pledge.

Why is what I said scummy? Why am I scummy in general?
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #949 on: March 12, 2014, 11:00:33 pm »

Well, I'm an IC and you're not. Everyone should pretty much sheep me and ADK, yes.

That said, I am quite capable of changing my mind--I was deadset on lynching PPS earlier today. I can still change my mind, if you show me why my overwhelming case for why mcmc is scummier than Scott is wrong.
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