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Author Topic: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Town Wins on D5!)  (Read 129848 times)

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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #900 on: March 11, 2014, 04:33:36 pm »

I don't understand what's going on, but I'm not a mason.  Does that make ADK and IC?

Yes.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #901 on: March 11, 2014, 04:34:06 pm »

I have to leave for a couple hours. When I come back, we'll all lynch mcmcsalot.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #902 on: March 11, 2014, 04:35:09 pm »

@ Robz I was replying to PPS, who seems very confused about how the setup works. Does that give him towncred? I don't know.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #903 on: March 11, 2014, 04:48:18 pm »

cool...whatever
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #904 on: March 11, 2014, 05:21:40 pm »

I have a birthing class to drive to and attend; I will check once more when I get there but as it is,

Vote: mcmcsalot
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mail-mi

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #905 on: March 11, 2014, 05:22:22 pm »

scott is on but not posting.

vote: scott
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Teproc

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #906 on: March 11, 2014, 05:24:51 pm »

Vote Count 3.5:

pingpongsam (1): A Drowned Kernel
Axxle (1): shraeye
mcmcsalot (1): pingpongsam
scott_pilgrim (1): mail-mi

Not Voting (4): Robz888, Axxle, mcmcsalot, scott_pilgrim

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends at 5:20 p.m. on Wednesday, March 19.
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #907 on: March 11, 2014, 05:27:34 pm »

vote: scott

I still feel he's pretty scum with his interactions with raerae, and the last scum has a good chance of being a lurker since the other two were loud.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #908 on: March 11, 2014, 05:34:48 pm »

vote: scott its not me
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #909 on: March 11, 2014, 05:37:21 pm »

I agree that I've been pretty lurky this game.  I'm not sure what you mean by my interactions with raerae being scummy?  Can you give examples?  Also, why does having two loud scum mean the last one is more likely lurky?  I don't see why that would be the case, unless you're committing the fallacy of "flipping two heads makes the next more likely tails" but I assume you know better than that.
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #910 on: March 11, 2014, 05:42:09 pm »

I agree that I've been pretty lurky this game.  I'm not sure what you mean by my interactions with raerae being scummy?  Can you give examples?  Also, why does having two loud scum mean the last one is more likely lurky?  I don't see why that would be the case, unless you're committing the fallacy of "flipping two heads makes the next more likely tails" but I assume you know better than that.
The biggest thing about you and raerae is that she decided to selfdestruct instead of trying to help lynch you.

The 2 loud and 1 quiet is something that the mafia does pretty often.  There's a few different reasons for it: 'don't put all our eggs in one basket', 'try different strategies and we all won't get caught', 'X died doing Y so I should be doing Z instead'.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #911 on: March 11, 2014, 05:51:33 pm »

Oh right, you mentioned that before.  Yeah, I can't explain why raerae didn't vote for me, other than that she apparently likes to stick to her vote and doesn't move it under pressure.  I mean I guess it could also be WIFOM, she thinks if she doesn't vote me people will think I'm scum and they get a mislynch that way after she dies, but that's a stretch; the payoff isn't worth what she loses from it.  I know I'm town, I agree it is odd that she didn't vote for me, I would have voted for me in her position even if she was town, lynching someone whose alignment you don't know is almost always better than getting lynched.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #912 on: March 11, 2014, 05:57:14 pm »

unvote PPS seems a little too genuinely confused to be scum.

Who does that leave us with? Scott and mc? Someone said something about axxle. I'll have to do a reread I guess.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #913 on: March 11, 2014, 06:16:35 pm »

I have to leave for a couple hours. When I come back, we'll all lynch mcmcsalot.
Give me a chance to read things.  We have a whole week, and I'm on vacation now.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #914 on: March 11, 2014, 06:17:40 pm »

unvote PPS seems a little too genuinely confused to be scum.

Who does that leave us with? Scott and mc? Someone said something about axxle. I'll have to do a reread I guess.

I keep saying look at Axxle or mail-mi.  I will do this when more time presents itself.
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #915 on: March 11, 2014, 06:29:00 pm »

Eh no need to look, see:

Quote from: Eevee
I have a cop innocent on Axxle

That's a totally, completely, 100% spurious quote from this game.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #916 on: March 11, 2014, 06:35:17 pm »

Oh we have a week, not until tomorrow, I thought that was a short deadline. Okay I'm going to put off my reread a little bit, activity's going to be low for me today and tomorrow.

I did get far enough in my reread to be reminded of Axxle's fakehammer on raerae, that's a point in his favor I think.
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mail-mi

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #917 on: March 11, 2014, 06:37:09 pm »

To me, the candidates are mcmc, shraeye, and scott.

Not Robz or Axxle because they're super duper townie.

Not ADK because cop claim

Not PPS because reasons stated before

Not mail-mi because that's me.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #918 on: March 11, 2014, 08:42:51 pm »

Teproc missed my Unvote and my mcmc vote. Really glad there is at least consideration being given to other possibilities.

Unvote
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Axxle

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #919 on: March 11, 2014, 08:46:16 pm »

Teproc missed my Unvote and my mcmc vote. Really glad there is at least consideration being given to other possibilities.

Unvote
mcmcsalot (1): pingpongsam
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Teproc

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #920 on: March 11, 2014, 08:47:36 pm »

Vote Count 3.6:

scott_pilgrim (3): mail-mi, Axxle, mcmcsalot
Axxle (1): shraeye

Not Voting (4): Robz888, scott_pilgrim, A Drowned Kernel, pingpongsam

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends at 5:20 p.m. on Wednesday, March 19.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #921 on: March 11, 2014, 09:14:21 pm »

I think I got some phone weirdness, there because I double checked before I posted, apologies.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #922 on: March 12, 2014, 02:05:07 am »

Okay, I just re-read Day 1. Good news, friends. The last scum is mcmcsalot. It's much, much clearer on re-read. Like overwhelmingly clear. He's scummy in his own right, and by process of elimination.

The gist is this: He consistently votes for raerae at times when she is not in danger, and then is not voting for her--but saying she's scummy and that he will vote for her--at times when she is in more danger. Comapared side-by-side with Scotty, mcmcsalot's behavior toward raerae is strictly scummier than Scotty's.

Here's him, when the raerae wagon is building:

vote: raerae

What answer could he have given that you would not have replied the same way?
From my perspective you asked him a question and afterwards voted him for a reason unrelated to his answer.

Then I think he realizes this vote is more dangerous than he realized, and unvotes:

vote: raerae

What answer could he have given that you would not have replied the same way?
From my perspective you asked him a question and afterwards voted him for a reason unrelated to his answer.

Exactly how I feel about it. It can't be a serious vote. I dont get why someone would post out of spite in this game as it really doesn't help anything.

I want to add raerae is a doesn't one, I can see town raerae thinking Andrew is scum and doing this exact same thing. Remember pirates where she swapped in and went at it with another townie(I was scum and loved being able to pick either side) soo with that unvote off to reread Yuma and see of I get that sense from him

Justification:

More remembrance, Yuma and me have discussed the idea of townie "pushing" lynches similarly to the way scum does and Yuma was of the opinion that town shouldn't and would rarely use tactics to make the person they think is scum look scummy so that is consistent with his thoughts in town!raerae not having a reason to do what she did.(correct me if I am misremembering)

Followed by the giveaway:

He also mentions the poor town play possibility definitely no scum read there. This makes me want to go back to outing raerae though I think she is not the best day 1 lynch based on contributions.

"This makes me want to go back to [lynching] raerae."  But he doesn't. Not then, at least. Not until the wagon builds up to L-2, Axxle does that fake out thing, and then it goes back down.

Then mcmc votes for raerae. Historically speaking, this is a safe time to vote for your scum partner; they just survived an early Day 1 wagon, and will likely not actually be revisited.

But then... we stall out, votes fly everywhere, and we actually come back to raerae. Note who casts the next vote for her, after mcmc:

Vote Count 1.18:

raerae (4): AndrewisFTTW, mail-mi, mcmcsalot, scott_pilgrim
yuma (2): shraeye, pingpongsam
shraeye (2): yuma, Robz888
scott_pilgrim (2): Eevee, A Drowned Kernel
AndrewisFTTW (1): raerae

Not Voting (1): Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends at 4:30 p.m. on March 3, 2014.

That is in less than 24 hours.


Scotty's vote is more likely to get raerae killed than mcmc's, herego, mcmc is more likely scum.

Interesting things--things I forgot about--happen after that. I start a mini wagon on Scotty. I do think Scotty reacted pretty scummy to it, but... Yuma clearly preferred it as the alternative to raerae. His best last effort to achieve a lynch on a non-mafia was to pivot toward Scotty. Note that this wasn't an entirely desperate thing. He had a good shot at achieving it. It was my idea, I trusted yuma, Scotty was kind of scummy, we had Eevee on board for it.

Scotty is very, very unlikely to be scum, based on Day 1. Whereas mcmc did exactly what scum would have done, especially in comparison to Scotty.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #923 on: March 12, 2014, 02:08:57 am »

If not mcmc, I honestly think shraeye, Axxle, and mail-mi are all more likely than Scotty, based solely on Day 1.

I mean, mail-mi is also pretty unlikely. He was doggedly committed to the raerae lynch at all times--that was just so self-destructive, if he was scum.

My town!read on Axxle is pure gut.

I don't really have a town read on shraeye anymore, after reading Day 1. I think his yuma feuding could have been scripted, although it's not the MOST likely thing.

People voting for Scott, stop that. That's stupid.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #924 on: March 12, 2014, 02:10:01 am »

Vote: Mcmcsalot You should all join me.
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