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Author Topic: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Town Wins on D5!)  (Read 129908 times)

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shraeye

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #825 on: March 11, 2014, 10:14:22 am »

what?
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #826 on: March 11, 2014, 11:06:01 am »

I find mcmc scummy but I see straight up Mafia in ADK.

I have reason to believe Axxle is town and I've not seen any convincing cases that he isn't.

I have good reasons to believe shraeye is town and I am beyond debating Robz' alignment.

scott and mail-mi haven't raised any suspicions but I've not seen them garner too much attention at all. I get confirmation bias from both of them. I'll reread both of them but IIRC scotty has come off towny while mail-mi has been null all around.

So, prior to a reread on scott and mail-mi my list is as follows:

Lynch ASAP FTW: ADK
Runner-up for scummiest of the scummies: mcmcsalot
/dev/null: scott-pilgrim, mail-mi
Ordered from Lukewarm Townishnish to Rainbows of Towny spewing from every orifice: Axxle, shraeye, Robz, PPS (ok, not so towny to anybody but himself)
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #827 on: March 11, 2014, 11:16:26 am »

Re-read scott_pilgrim and see no scum there. L-3'd raerae and stayed there. While I definitely get confirmation bias from having him echo where I am I think it is a solid position that scum would be waffling on already to make the mislynch happen. I know my alignment to be Town so when he indicates that my play is easy to misconstrue but that he is not going to misconstrue it I feel a Towny kinshep feeling in my belly. Most of his play has been theory talk. This is scott's 3rd game and the meta I got from DoP is that he is fairly lurky and more of an observer with fairly committed reads. I don't know what other game he was in nor his alignment but from my little exposure this looks like town!scott.

The only detraction I see is that he was off-wagon and not voting alongside ADK for the yuma lynch. I am currently reading this as both his normal slow play style (aka lurkish) and possibly an abstention to such a fast lynch.

Modified Reads:

Lynch ASAP FTW: ADK
Runner-up for scummiest of the scummies: mcmcsalot
/dev/null: mail-mi
Ordered from Lukewarm Townishnish to Rainbows of Towny spewing from every orifice: Axxle, shraeye/scott-pilgrim, Robz, PPS (ok, not so towny to anybody but himself)

off to re-read mail-mi, now.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #828 on: March 11, 2014, 11:19:40 am »

Vote Count 3.4:

A Drowned Kernel (3): pingpongsam, scott_pilgrim, mail-mi
pingpongsam (2): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel
Axxle (1): shraeye

Not Voting (2): Robz888, Axxle

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends at 5:20 p.m. on Wednesday, March 19.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #829 on: March 11, 2014, 11:24:39 am »

Re-read of mail-mi indicates he was early onto raerae and called it spot on as a semi-early bus that got away from scum's ability to leverage for cred later. He aslo felt a scum vibe on ADK early on and, like me, suspected Eevee early on as well. He also disliked the wagon speed on raerae just as I did. Reads scotty as town as well, also avoided the D1 yuma lynch because raerae he perceived as better and yuma was quite helpful then. As an aside, my display yesterday was to show that once cornered helpful yuma completely evaporated and that was the tell the confirmed him scum to me. Early voted on the yuma wagon, no way he was yuma's partner and this play just about wraps up a now strong town read on mail-mi. From that point on it's pretty much the same confirmation bias I get from scotty.

So final reads list:

Lynch ASAP FTW: ADK
Runner-up for scummiest of the scummies: mcmcsalot
Ordered from Lukewarm Townishnish to Rainbows of Towny spewing from every orifice: Axxle, shraeye/scott-pilgrim, mail-mi Robz, PPS (ok, not so towny to anybody but himself)

As far as I am concerned the lynch pool is narrowed to only 2 contenders. All I ask is we lynch ADK first because I think it guarantees us the win. If I am wrong I gladly go to the gallows knowing mcmc will die shortly thereafter and we win anyway.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #830 on: March 11, 2014, 12:11:03 pm »

I'm in the mood to actually post a play by play narrative of ADK's scumminess:

RVS'd Eevee, now RVS is RVS but I do note he did not RVS scum here.

Shortly afterwards he states his RVS isn't so RVS anymore, bear in mind this is our Cop. Decides to unvote when really pressed on this.

Plays the joke reaction angle to cast suspicion on FTTW who is now conftown. Sets up the WIFOM that the new scum guy would likely not cast suspicion on himself.

Here comes the fun: Says there appears to be good momentum on shraeye so we should consider an alternative wagon and votes raerae, remember guys we all agreed the raerae wagon was a scum plan that got out of their hands. this vote garners an immediate interaction from yuma, known scum partner to raerae. this is classic scum preplanning in action. He even calls the spade a spade here. AFAICT the whole scum team starts bantering over the new raerae vote right here. ADK solidifies his position that the raerae vote is just to deflect from the too quickly moving shraeye vote.

Axxle comes in about this point and says he is taking a long hard look at ADK if shraeye flips scum because he doesn't think L-3 is very close to lynch on D1 to which I agree, scum would have done well to allow more momentum on shraeye's wagon before going for the early suspicion cred bus. why is Axxle unwilling to take that long hard look now?

Well, raerae goes to L-1 relatively quickly and guess who unvotes? ADK. Axxle resets it right back which speaks volumes to Axxle's alignment.

Known scum yuma steps in and says we are getting some good old fashioned material to work with, obviously trying to identify an alterntive angle to get off the spiraling raerae wagon. ADK uses this lull to reiterate there used to be a wagon shraeye (hint hint guise!) but we know the damage is already done. mial-mi gains town cred here for relighting the fire on the raerae wagon, he wasn't fooled. Robz sees the bullshit going and votes ADK, why is this not worthy of a vote today?

yuma and raerae are desperately backpedaling. ADK does what he has been trying to do, place a vote that will deflect from raerae and he votes mail-mi, another strong Town read. Unfortunately the tide shifts onto yuma with shraeye and then me placing votes.

ADK chimes in to say there are no goods reads and echoes my scum-baited sentiment that the raerae wagon is just too confusing. Robz makes the comment yuma is worht keeping and I agree not only because yuma is good Town when he's town but he's easy scum to out which I do the next day. I go back to what looks like an ADK driven agenda, Eevee. yuma is still, inexplicably, tied to the raerae wagon which I think was a fatal mistake as we soon see.

ADK tries again to dissuade people from believing he unvoted raerae to protect a partner but instead to prevent a mislynch which we know now was not a mislynch at all. this prompts another scumteam banter where they all 3 try to neogotaite how we must all be misinterpreting what they are trying to do here (save raerae's neck).

robz derails the whole thing with his random lynch thing, which btw, I think was a super town or scum play either way. The rareare wagon dies to only 3 votes with yuma obviously hanging in there for what they mist now perceive to be the successfully implemented pkan for the early suspicion cred bus meme. ADK uses this opportunity to get FTTW to question his vote on raerae. mcmc does the towniest thing he does the whole game and reignites the wagon with a raerae vote, not he also reserved an out to vote Eevee so I find it fascinating he wants to paint me scum today for having similar suspicions about Eevee then too.

yuma jumps finally, voting shraeye because he is the only hope D1 for a mislynch wagon at this point to which Robz agrees with a followup vote. Me and Axxle both see what yuma just did and vote him in quick sucession. raerae goes to deflect onto the never gonna happen eevee vote. yuma, raerae and FTTW alljockey around the maypole a bit about what these shifts actually represent. ADK and others notably absent, when prodded ADK promises a reads list.

The ADK reads list is some fun stuff, here it is:
All right, this is what I got from a reread:

eevee- Town? Ish? Wouldn't vote for him right now. I don't see scum in the vote-forgetting, I think scum is more careful than that.
scott- Scummy. I don't like how he jumped on raerae wagon and I'm seeing his reaction to the randomlynch as scummy, town would be more likely to just shrug it off as joke I think.
robz- Random lynch thing seems scummy but also believable from what I know of Robz. Null.
mail-mi- VLA means he hasn't posted much. He did kind of jump of the shraeye wagon though. Don't have a good guess on him.
yuma- Town-ish. Makes a lot of good analysis but he could be active scum trying to control the flow of the game. Wait and see I guess.
mc- Generally scummy as well as lurky. He votes for raerae, unvotes, then criticizes/calls other people scummy for unvoting. There's this whole "trying to push a mislynch without actually voting on it" thing that I'm reading. I know I'm new at this but is that a thing scum does?
pps- Buddying with shraeye? Maybe they're masons. Null I guess.
raerae- Her interaction with FTTW still looks like scumhunting town to me, as well as her response.
fttw- Mostly just a newbie townie vibe, trying to figure out what's going on.
shraeye- Buddying with pps, again not too sure on alignment. Tunneling on yuma a little.
axxle- Switches votes a lot early on but seems like he's scumhunting. Slight town I guess.

At this point I guess I'd vote for mc or scott. I dislike the idea of jumping on a wagon that started with Robz saying "let's vote someone random" but I do feel he's scummy, and I suppose I should resign myself to not perfectly agreeing with everyone's vote.

Vote: Scott

raerae and yuma are his top Town reads, impressive that. and guess who sheeps the scott vote? yuma.

oh oh, the raerae wagon heats up since the clock is ticking and yuma supposes he's gotta get back in there where he was gonna get that cred he committed to realizing, wait, no bad idea, maybe the scott thing can happen or they can stave off the raerae lynch. huge gaff, here. ADK and yuma bow out for the final countdown.




D@, admits he and yuma look scummy. when the inevitable happens to yuma which he couldn't defend and couldn't start because it was his partner and because he can hope someone else does something scummy enough to get the heat he realizes the only cred salvaging opportunity he has is to intent to hammer. We all know what happened and we all agree ADK's reluctance here looks scummy.

D3 it's him or me because Eevee got offed and I know fluffy investigated me. Almost makes me think the Mafia PR is Rolecop.

So, I see a consistent scum narrative throughout. Last time I say this, can we please lynch ADK first if it has to be between me and him?

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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #831 on: March 11, 2014, 12:12:58 pm »

D3 it's him or me because Eevee got offed and I know fluffy investigated me. Almost makes me think the Mafia PR is Rolecop.

False, we know for a certainty the last PR is Roleblocker. Check the setup.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #832 on: March 11, 2014, 12:13:58 pm »

That said, you're kind of convincing me.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #833 on: March 11, 2014, 12:15:10 pm »

Is t talking about how muh you want to be copped or that a cop result will clear you almos always a scum trait?
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #834 on: March 11, 2014, 12:16:15 pm »

Is t talking about how muh you want to be copped or that a cop result will clear you almos always a scum trait?

Well, yes. That part is scummy. But in every other way, he has not reacted like I would expect him to as scum. Remember, I just played alongside him as scum in Diffusion of Power.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #835 on: March 11, 2014, 12:40:35 pm »

I'll admit that I haven't been very active game, and that's on me. What's also on me is my terrible reads on day one. Was the scum teams reactions that PPS is talking about deliberately set up to give town a mislynch later, or is it just incidental stuff that's screwing me over now? I don't know. I truly did have a scum read on Yuma yesterday, my reluctance to vote was based on the two thoughts of, "lynching two scum in a row sounds too good to be true", and "on the off chance yuma is town then i'm set up for a mislynch tomorrow". It's what I get for being slightly sheepy, but there you go.

PPS omits the fact on D-2, I admit that I, yuma, Eevee and him are the ones who look scummy. Here's my post:

So there's a lot of suspicion on me right now, which is pretty understandable. I guess you either believe me when you say I was just trying to avoid a mislynch, or you don't.

Scum read on Scott pretty much revoked, I think he was on the wagon too early and too consistently to be bussing scum. The only voters I would believe as bussing scum right now are Robz or Shraeye, and those are very tentative. I'd rather vote off-wagon.

Between PPS, Eevee, and Yuma... Yuma obviously seems scummier now, but I think he'd have to be fairly incompetent scum to do what he did, and I guess that isn't likely. But maybe that's whole point of what he did? WIFOM etc. Eevee's hardline stance against the raerae wagon seems a little townier. PPS, hmm.

Caught up early yesterday and again today. Will likely be gone all day but so far still standing firm on my vote. Not seeing anything new to convince me otherwise. Quite surprised there hasn't been a push for a wagon on me to date. I was kind of provoking one to see who would join it. While I have some suspicions about who may be scum I am largely null on everyone. Probably the only actual townish read I have is Axxle and I tend to doubly suspect my D1 Town reads.
(bold added)

Found this while I was rereading his posts, the unprovoked questioning of why no one is suspicious of him strikes me as someone who knows that people should have reason to be suspicious of them. Kind of like what I was reading from Eevee at the very beginning of the game, I thought I was misreading that but maybe I wasn't.

No vote yet, still have to wait and see I think.

PPS is still my strongest scum read. He's been bouncing around a lot, and the whole "putting on an act to draw out scum" thing doesn't sit well with me. If you've told us once that you've been lying, then why should we believe the new version? His behavior today looks likes he's tunneling on the only person he thinks he can get lynched over him, and that's me.

That said, I am open to hear who else people think could be lynched today. People I wouldn't lynch, though: Robz, Scott, mail-mi, probably not shraeye.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #836 on: March 11, 2014, 01:25:04 pm »

i think you both are focusing too much on eachother, which takes things dangerously close to a "me or him" situation.  And I don't have a scum read on either of you.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #837 on: March 11, 2014, 01:40:08 pm »

PPS omits the fact on D-2, I admit that I, yuma, Eevee and him are the ones who look scummy.
No, I did not omit that part at all.

Quote
If you've told us once that you've been lying, then why should we believe the new version?

At no point have I lied nor told you that I lied. Where did this even come from? I did say I have intentionally flip-flopped I have intentionally posted with scum-baited posts that have worked extremely well for their purposes.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #838 on: March 11, 2014, 02:04:20 pm »

Again, I will say: Scum!PPS does not redirect a D1 scum partner lynch to another partner lynch.

His narrative of ADK makes a whole lot of sense. Let's do this and lynch ADK
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #839 on: March 11, 2014, 02:09:05 pm »

Yeah, I'm coming around.

Okay, ADK. We want your claim, now.

Tonight, I want Vigs to shoot mcmcsalot and Cops to investigate PPS. Doctors, protect me.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #840 on: March 11, 2014, 02:15:09 pm »

Yeah, I'm coming around.

Okay, ADK. We want your claim, now.

Tonight, I want Vigs to shoot mcmcsalot and Cops to investigate PPS. Doctors, protect me.

fine vote: adk

also i'm a vt vigs can go ahead and shoot me, I do not feel like defending myself if i'm alive tomorrow. I still think pps is scum.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #841 on: March 11, 2014, 02:17:54 pm »

also before anyone freaks out, scum would never have shot me in a million years(im scummy, easy to mislynch me and the ic told vigs to shoot me) so I am not taking a possible pr off the table. Also It's better I die and save all your time than get mislynched and waste a day, also if there are vigs, I wouldn't want them shooting a possible pr.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #842 on: March 11, 2014, 02:20:37 pm »

Mcmc is absolutely correct.

But vigs, don't think "oh that makes him town." Shoot him anyway, please.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #843 on: March 11, 2014, 02:21:51 pm »

Mcmc is absolutely correct.

But vigs, don't think "oh that makes him town." Shoot him anyway, please.

I mean it does, but yea it's still for the best.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #844 on: March 11, 2014, 03:10:55 pm »

Claim: Universal Backup/Cop
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #845 on: March 11, 2014, 03:12:44 pm »

Everyone unvote ADK immediately, please. This is not a claim he can fake. He is an IC now.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #846 on: March 11, 2014, 03:13:07 pm »

unvote
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #847 on: March 11, 2014, 03:14:00 pm »

Sooo lynch pps, docs protect Adk, Adk investigate someone non me/robz, vigs target me?
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #848 on: March 11, 2014, 03:16:17 pm »

So where does this go when I flip town because I am sure as hell flipping town.

Also, how is it he can't fake that? I'm not arguing, I'm genuinely confused.
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Re: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #849 on: March 11, 2014, 03:16:44 pm »

If I am reading the setup correctly, the Universal Backup turns into a Mason if a single M is rolled, and the UB is not told he was originally a UB, is that correct ash?

So under that edge case, ADK coukld be faking (of course, he wouldn't know that was the case--so it would be a huge huge gamble, although possibly one he has no choice but to make.)
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