Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[nkirbit]

In clue, the hider died if they hid behind a vigilante, right?  I looked up hider on mafia scum, and there's no such description of hiding behind a vig leading to a death, but it was in clue.

Is it possible that we have the same condition here.  Walrus claimed half vigilante... maybe Sudgy died because he hid behind a Vigilante?  Is that possible?

sudgy didn't flip hider. he flipped doctor.

Maybe Sudgy died because he targeted a vigilante.

[nkirbit]

nvm, he might not have been able to act in the present.

It's also possible that Sudgy was a time-traveler himself, so even if town knew to roleblock Sudgy, it's not the case that they knew which night to roleblock him.  Sudgy's flip didn't indicate that he was a time traveler, but it's possible that a flip wouldn't.

[2.71828.....]

In clue, the hider died if they hid behind a vigilante, right?  I looked up hider on mafia scum, and there's no such description of hiding behind a vig leading to a death, but it was in clue.

Is it possible that we have the same condition here.  Walrus claimed half vigilante... maybe Sudgy died because he hid behind a Vigilante?  Is that possible?

Walrus claimed even night vig.  so that theory wouldnt work N1

[nkirbit]

At this point, I have town reads on the following players:

Walrus, Xeiron, Faust, Yuma, 2.7, EFHW

Null reads on the following players:

Jimm, Ashersky, PPS

Scum reads on:

Jotheonah

[Jimmmmm]

Walrus, Xeiron, Faust, Yuma, 2.7, EFHW

That's a long list of Town reads.

[nkirbit]

Walrus, Xeiron, Faust, Yuma, 2.7, EFHW

That's a long list of Town reads.

Yeah, I agree.  Probably at least one of them is wrong, maybe more.  But it's how I feel right now.  I would not, at this point, consider supporting a lynch of any of those players.

[nkirbit]

Any interest in commenting on Walrus or Joth or something else, Jimm?  I get that the length of my town reads list is interesting, but surely you have an opinion on what's happening, right?

[EFHW]

Nkirbit's analysis of walrus's alignment exactly echoes my own thoughts on the matter.  Ashersky  and others supporting a walrus lynch, do you want to lynch walrus even if he isn't mafia?

[jotheonah]

And here we have Walrus' claim.  Whether you believe it or not, you'll notice that his very first action after claiming is to vote for Archetype.  Archetype has been under a little suspicion throughout the day, but wasn't one of the leading wagons.  Walrus voting for Archetype directly caused him to be a viable lynch candidate.  I'm confident that without Walrus' vote, Archetype does not get lynched.. it was his vote that even made me go back and re-read Arch, and then push heavily for his lynch.  I probably wouldn't have done that without Walrus' vote.

Now, I know that bussing is a thing, but does scum really bus there in that way?  I just don't buy it.  Even if Walrus manages to get the lynch off of him, he's probably going to remain one of our prime suspects going forward (as he is today).  Yeah, maybe someone else will get lynched.. but why doesn't Walrus vote elsewhere.  Or at the least no vote?  If it's a deflection technique, does he really deflect on his teammate at that point?  No way.  It's just too risky.  It could easily get Archetype lynched day1, and him lynched day2... it's just suicide.

Here! Vote: Walrus at this stage I don't believe Walrus' claim. I'm pretty sure he's just a Time Traveling Roleblocker and is faking the Vig part.


That is L-1

Here we have Archetype pushing Walrus to L-1.  Sure, I guess this could come from a scum teammate, but why?  Are Walrus and Archetype busing each other?  It's possible, but it's either a series of incredibly poor decision making by scum teammates, or just comes from the fact that they're not scum teammates.  I just believe it's the second, strongly.

Furthermore, I just don't believe that our largest wagons day1 were both on scum.  Just no way.  Scum doesn't let that happen.

Now, I acknowledge that it's possible for Walrus to be a SK or something else like that, but I still don't want to lynch him.  I'd rather lynch a player with a chance of flipping either mafia or a potential third party, because it's just so much more likely to happen.

I just think that if a player doesn't make sense as mafia, we shouldn't be lynching them, and everything that happened between Walrus and Archetype indicates to me that they weren't teammates.  So I absolutely will not be considering Walrus as a potential lynch today without stronger evidence, because his interactions with Archetype are pretty good evidence to me that he isn't a member of the mafia.

So scum-bussing is a thing (and by the way, you have to believe that whether you vote for me or Walrus). You're saying this doesn't look like a bus.

I disagree. I think Walrus and Archetype are 100 percent capable of this kind of bussing, so that if one of them ended up lynched, the other would cruise out safe on the bus cred -- which is exactly what's happening.

[jotheonah]

I think I'm tunneling hard though. I'll reread the end of day 1 tonight or tomorrow and try hard to keep an open mind.

[nkirbit]

And here we have Walrus' claim.  Whether you believe it or not, you'll notice that his very first action after claiming is to vote for Archetype.  Archetype has been under a little suspicion throughout the day, but wasn't one of the leading wagons.  Walrus voting for Archetype directly caused him to be a viable lynch candidate.  I'm confident that without Walrus' vote, Archetype does not get lynched.. it was his vote that even made me go back and re-read Arch, and then push heavily for his lynch.  I probably wouldn't have done that without Walrus' vote.

Now, I know that bussing is a thing, but does scum really bus there in that way?  I just don't buy it.  Even if Walrus manages to get the lynch off of him, he's probably going to remain one of our prime suspects going forward (as he is today).  Yeah, maybe someone else will get lynched.. but why doesn't Walrus vote elsewhere.  Or at the least no vote?  If it's a deflection technique, does he really deflect on his teammate at that point?  No way.  It's just too risky.  It could easily get Archetype lynched day1, and him lynched day2... it's just suicide.

Here! Vote: Walrus at this stage I don't believe Walrus' claim. I'm pretty sure he's just a Time Traveling Roleblocker and is faking the Vig part.


That is L-1

Here we have Archetype pushing Walrus to L-1.  Sure, I guess this could come from a scum teammate, but why?  Are Walrus and Archetype busing each other?  It's possible, but it's either a series of incredibly poor decision making by scum teammates, or just comes from the fact that they're not scum teammates.  I just believe it's the second, strongly.

Furthermore, I just don't believe that our largest wagons day1 were both on scum.  Just no way.  Scum doesn't let that happen.

Now, I acknowledge that it's possible for Walrus to be a SK or something else like that, but I still don't want to lynch him.  I'd rather lynch a player with a chance of flipping either mafia or a potential third party, because it's just so much more likely to happen.

I just think that if a player doesn't make sense as mafia, we shouldn't be lynching them, and everything that happened between Walrus and Archetype indicates to me that they weren't teammates.  So I absolutely will not be considering Walrus as a potential lynch today without stronger evidence, because his interactions with Archetype are pretty good evidence to me that he isn't a member of the mafia.

So scum-bussing is a thing (and by the way, you have to believe that whether you vote for me or Walrus). You're saying this doesn't look like a bus.

I disagree. I think Walrus and Archetype are 100 percent capable of this kind of bussing, so that if one of them ended up lynched, the other would cruise out safe on the bus cred -- which is exactly what's happening.

I don't think I've ever seen a scum, under pressure day 1, with plenty of viable options to choose from, try and deflect on their teammate.  It's just too risky.  The credit isn't worth getting your partner lynched day1, especially in a game where you're facing a lot of town PRs.  Especially throwing the lynch onto your busdriver, when there's a player who announced his possible night targets as including Archetype and Walrus.  If Archetype and Walrus are mafia, they probably want to leave Archetype alive so that he can busdrive Sudgy, right?

By throwing suspicion onto Archetype, Walrus would have been risking the following:

1) Archetype gets lynched.
2) Some percentage of the time, Sudgy targets Walrus with his weak role, and dies.  Even if Walrus has gained some town credit, there's a non-zero chance he gets lynched.  People certainly argue for it, at least.

Why risk it?  I just don't see scum!Walrus acting that way.  Keep in mind, this is a game with a bunch of town PRs.. there's a chance every night that a mafia member will get caught, so losing a teammate for credit doesn't seem worth it to me.  Especially when they're a bus driver, which is a pretty powerful role (especially when there's a weak player announcing his targets each night).

[ashersky]

I haven't claimed all I know because EFHW said no full claim.  At least one other player mentioned also having reason to believe sudgy was not NKed.

If asked to full claim, I can.







Also, no one finds it more likely scum wants to kill super powered walrus over weak doc sudgy?  Look at walrus's claim.  And yet he survives AND was targeted by a weak doc who died.   Hmmm.

[nkirbit]

Walrus' role doesn't sound any more powerful than yours.  You're an enabler and you claim to have knowledge that all other night kills were stopped.  Man.  Why don't I ever get the cool PRs?

[nkirbit]

Killing Walrus isn't a priority when you can just try and get him mislynched the next day, which is what a Sudgy kill sets up if Walrus is town.

[nkirbit]

Although I guess scum wouldn't know that Sudgy's flip would incriminate Walrus and not Xeiron... but if they're both town, maybe mafia doesn't mind either way.

[faust]

So, catching up.

Anyway, Vote: Joth

[...]

He only moved over to Archetype after I pointed this out, because as it turned out, his choice was between Archetype and no-lynch.  And knowing that Archetype is scum, the above statement is pretty scummy.  "Well, I would lynch this scum player, but I really don't want to..".  I don't think Joth was planning to vote Archetype at all, but got forced to because of the way the day unfolded.

Joth was on Walrus, trying to convince us that one of Walrus and Xeiron was scum.  After EFHW broke up the Walrus wagon, he tried to move over to Xeiron, justifying his vote with "there appears to be a lot of support", despite the archetype wagon having two more voters at that point.  The Xeiron wagon didn't go through, he couldn't no-lynch given his previous statements, and was forced to move over to archetype at the last minute.

Well, I do agree that joth behaved somewhat scummy, but do you really think scum would post this:

I really really wish my choice was not between Archetype and no lynch.

I don't, and so I think joth is more likely town.

[faust]

Archetype v. Walrus (7) unv. Xeiron (3)
     Archetype unv. Walrus (6)
Archetype v. Walrus (7)

I totally believe Walrus right now.  Some things I thought about overnight:
1) There is absolutely no way someone fake-claims River Song.  I have only watched the Matt Smith Dr. Who episodes, but she is way to important to be handed out as a fake-claim for scum to use.
2) Archetype would believe the claim if Walrus were his scum partner.

I think your point 1) is dangerous and you shouldn't base your reads on this. 2) is an interesting point though, and speaks for Walrus being town.

[faust]

Hi!

So I think that you guys should vote for Walrus.  As a tree stump, I don't have that capability.

So the reaally awesome part of being a tree stump is that scum can't kill me, which means I'm basically a half-IC (since I'm dead I don't count against their wincon, but since I'm dead they can't kill me to shut me up).  I guess they can go back to N1 to "fix" that, but then they're wasting a kill on somebody who's already dead!  It's glorious 

Why should we lynch Walrus?

[faust]

Yuma for trying to avoid a lynch at all.

why is this scummy?

It is scummy, because in a situation where we are close to deadline, and blitzvoting to reach a lynch, and one of the feasable lynch canditates is scum (Archetype), other scum members would try to avoid having their teammate lynched. Either by pushing another wagon, or by just trying to avoid any lynch as you did.

I kind of disagree with you here a bit, Xeiron.  I think the path of least resistance for Yuma, were he Archetype's teammate, would have been to push the Walrus wagon.  He had been absent through no fault of his own, so he wouldn't draw any suspicion pushing that wagon at that point, I don't think.  A town mislynch is also better than a no-lynch, were he Archetype's partner.  Pushing a no-lynch turns more attention to himself while pushing for a worse outcome, so I just don't see it as a scummy action.

Of course, if Walrus turns out to be Archetype's partner, then yeah, Yuma's pretty scummy by association.  But I don't think that's the case.

I'm on xeiron's side in this argument. Yes, the easiest way would have been to push another lynch. But this is yuma we're talking about. As scum, he knows how scummy he will look if he pushes another lynch and Archetype flips scum. So he might have tried to do something "too weird to be scummy".

[faust]

And where's Faust with his plan for ensuring sudgy's plan worked?  He was all about it D1.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[faust]

came back, caught up, and now vote: joth

Is it correct that you vote joth because you disagree with him? If so, that's a terrible reason for a vote.

[faust]

nvm, he might not have been able to act in the present.

It's also possible that Sudgy was a time-traveler himself, so even if town knew to roleblock Sudgy, it's not the case that they knew which night to roleblock him.  Sudgy's flip didn't indicate that he was a time traveler, but it's possible that a flip wouldn't.

I think that if a role was time-travelling, we would know when they flip.

[faust]

Now, on some other things.

ashersky seems to get pushed towards claiming right now. I do not want this to happen. I am fairly certain that he is town, and if this is the case we're probably better off if he's unclaimed (because I'm going to trust ashersky's own jugdment there).

So there's this case against Walrus, then there our weird tree stump chairs without a flip. I don't think we can rule out scum!chairs at this moment. He might get un-stumped the next Day or so.

I would like a flavor claim from chairs.

Then, we have Walrus. I get why people find him suspicious. I think there's a much stronger indication that he's town. He claimed even-night time-travelling vig, right? That's something that we might be able to confirm. Here's the idea: Walrus travels back to N1 tonight and targets chairs. That way, we can confirm that he's a vig, and at the same time get rid of our chairs problem. Now you say "but maybe scum will travel back to N1 and kill chairs!" Well, if they do, great. I think chairs is easily the worst NK target for scum. If he's town, he's probably already virtually dead.

[faust]

Out of everyone, I like a vote: yuma best. I found his reasoning for a D1 no-lynch already scummy D1, and now with Archetype's flip he's even more suspicious. Plus, he tried to argue against an off-wagon lynch, which seems like a self-preservation move. Add some POE: I think we should lynch off-wagon. Who is there?

EFHW - IC
chairs - tree stump
Archetype - dead scum
ashersky - my strongest town read at this point
pingpongsam - somewhat suspicious, but did a part claim (he has information about missing NKs), so I'm willing to keep him alive

The only one remaining is yuma.

[ashersky]

And where's Faust with his plan for ensuring sudgy's plan worked?  He was all about it D1.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

I think I am talking about xeiron.