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[Teproc]

I don't think I came in with set opinions - I came in posting about my uncertainty between e and Reggie, and wound up voting for ashersky.

I'm surprised ash is flying under the radar like this. I also feel like Robz is yesyes'ing many things I'm saying, which makes me feel like he is buddying me, if you can believe that.

This is a super-partnery post by the way, specifically the "ash is flying nunder the radar". If I'm ash's scumpartner and he is flying udner the radar, I'm very worried and absolutely want him to get some suspicion, especially early in the day. ash is never better than under a lot of suspicion. This is Eevee we're talking about, not some newbie scum, he knows what he's doing.

ash being listed among five other scum players is significant how ?

The Robz "townslip" is something. I'll give you that.

1) Eevee is too clever to push you as wolf. All he wants is to be PoEd as town, and you're doing all his work for him, why should he attack you ? You're his best ally now that he's lost ash.
2) Eevee looks super-partnery with ash
3) He has one townslip. Ok. It's literally the only nthing remotely townie he's done all game. NOt enough for me.

[Teproc]

It's insane to me that you conclude "99% scum" here. INsane. Lean townie because of the townslip, maybe, but you are confirm biasing yourself to death. I guess that could be said of me too... but I'm right.

[gkrieg13]

vote: Joseph

[iguanaiguana]

Time for an e reread. I saved e and Teproc for last because of the amount of content I have to get through to reread them. Also, I get the clearest picture from the final rereads, and these two seemed like the most important to sort correctly. 

Something on my mind for this reread is that e has not been put on the kill list any night despite what has looked like a strong town performance. I don't think e can be a wolf here - he scumread Ash through the game and then hammered him pretty readily first chance he got - that's not wolf play. So we need to sort him between mafia and town. Let's start by assuming equal chances of either one.

2.7 D1

E is pretty inactive (VLA) and mostly a non-content poster through the early D1 shenanigans. When he gets to his rereads, he comes to conclusions that still look towny on D4. Here are his conclusions:

So Robz.  (read through 322 so far).  He has popped in and out so far, and nothing to make me feel warm and fuzzy about him being town.  He was kind of sort of against JR votes based on meta, sheeped an opinion of mine without really investing himself anywhere (like as in, he didn't do votes (quick scan - his first vote is at 483 - haven't gotten there yet)), then continued with some friendly eevee sheeping.  Keeping an eye out for him.

summary through 322: Robz, Ash, faust, and JR all are coming off a little suspicious to me.  Jake and RR are just kind of there with some weird posts that seem like they could be scummy but could also just be posts that make them mislynches. Iguana, eevee, and teproc are townie.  Who am I forgetting?  TWM, Joseph, and gkrieg.  No real opinions yet.  TWM is trying hard this game to not come off scummy like he has in the past.  I don't think that is actually scummy, I think that is just him working hard to be more useful town.  gkrieg and Joseph I don't know.

And of course, I am town

His list of suspicious players includes two town (who I think he suspected for good reasons for D1), one flipped scum, and one person who is likely to be scum. His analysis of Jake and RR is also pretty spot-on. He's sorted Eevee and me correctly right away, and has a pretty reasonable townread on Teproc. He's also correct reading TWM. If e is scum, why would he start by identifying so few of his potential partners as town and so many of them as scum or null? Doesn't make sense as a first stance for scum.

ok, finally finished reading through.

Want to lynch:
JR

Would lynch:
Ashersky, Robz, faust

Don't want to lynch:
gkrieg, Joseph, Iguana, Jake, RR, TWM, Teproc, Eevee

Vote: J Reggie

Again, this reads list is very organic. There's town in the would lynch list, and scum. I guess the only way it makes sense for him as scum is if his partners are in Teproc, Gkrieg, and Joseph.

The plan: 100% a town cred grab

The Joseph vote: way too easy

The faust vote: when you call yourself scummy (calling his own vote sheeping...although yes, not all sheeping is bad), you might just be scummy

The gkrieg vote: He calls gkrieg out for what he has been doing all game.

It isn't random.  It is based on his play

This kind of hard tunneling and bearing down on your scum read can't be bussing, can it? e and J Reggie just are not partners here.

We have 3 wagons right now.

faust - would lynch, but really don't prefer to

RR - don't really want to lynch

J Reggie - want to lynch, best option of the three

Anyway, if you hate the RR lynch so much why don't we just lynch Faust?

We can, 10 minutes before the deadline.

I also think it is very towny how much e resisted going to his second lynch option (Faust) over J Reggie on D1. As scum, why? The only reason to do it is if you are trying to play the longest of long cons for major town cred at LyLo.

Bah. 

Robz is perplexing me.  I don't think I want to lynch him today.

I really don't understand why people are so against a J Reggie lynch, but I will abandon that for now since we have only 4 hours left.  In fact, let me just re-think my entire life here.

New PoE:
1. iguanaiguana - town
2. Roadrunner7671 - don't want to lynch based on my reread
3. 2.71828... - nope
4. The_Wine_Merchant - definitely not lynching
5. Joseph2302
6. Robz888 - Like I said, perplexing.
7. Eevee - not today.  Eevee is a bad lynch today
8. gkrieg13
9. Teproc
10. J Reggie - no one wants to lynch for some reason
11. JaketheBaseballGod22
12. faust - he is also being perplexing
13. ashersky

vote: jake

Iguana - Correct. Roadrunner - Correct. TWM - Correct. Joseph - Good odds of being correct. Robz - Correct. Eevee - VERY LIKELY Correct. Gkrieg - Good odds. Teproc - Good odds. J Reggie -still a scum read for him. Jake - Wrong. Faust - Correct. ash - Correct.

If we had just followed this PoE list, we would be in a much better situation right now. Also note that this list was totally against the thinking at the time - NONE of the people on his list had ANY votes on them, and posting the list even caused people to vote FOR him. Again, super impressive regardless of alignment. And as mafia, why make this list that highlights all your partners?

After e gets some votes, his response is towny too:

case on me?  let me try.

completely absent all day until the end.  Tries to get involved in the game, but no one really likes his opinions.  Kind of scrambles around trying to get some of his scum reads lynched, no traction.  The scrambling gives the sense that he is desperate and just wants to lynch anyone.  Since he was absent most of the day, lynching him is kind of cool and a new idea that gets some traction.

This to me reads as town trying to think through why other town would want to vote for him. As scum, does he think like that? Hard to fabricate.

At the EoD1, e switches to Roadrunner, then immediately to Faust, out of self-preservation. This does not read scummy to me at all.

E D2

I think all three of the nominations for the kill were town

Again, impressive. And as scum, don't you want to fight the PoE?

yeah, ending up on faust was no good.  Thanks for reminding me.

vote: J Reggie

Still pushing J Reggie on D2. He continues to scum-read J Reggie and push him somewhat on D2. He also fights VERY HARD against a Roadrunner lynch D2. As scum, why?

Meh, overall. As I said, I think the whole NK thing will be more revealing later in the game.

I guess I'm still on vote: e. Not so much for the stuff above, but because he feels like he's trying hard, and town!e never feels like that.

Ok. Yeah, there is nothing rally I can say to that. So basically I am tryhard!scum, right? I think there is plenty of historical data to the opposite going back to my first games like toy story. Recently my activity level has been lower, but I would argue is an accessibility thing more than anything. I also play 99% from mobile, so maybe I feel different to you because of that. (My end of day yesterday was from a computer, not going to hyperlink that much from mobile - too hard)

Does scum who got called out for exactly what they are put together this pretty authentic-looking defense? Maybe...

I think ashersky's lower than usual activity in this game means he is town.

I like what robz did, even if I agree with a few of his reads.
My thoughts (in no particular order):
Town:
e
Iguana
Ashersky
Robz
RR
Eevee

Scum:
Jake
J Reggie
Teproc
Gkrieg
Joseph

Again, e's D2 PoE list would require that he put all four of his potential partners as scum. If e is town, the only town on his scum list is Jake, and at least three of those listed are scum. If e is scum, his two partners MUST be in that scum list. E is going to go on to push Gkrieg after this, meaning that he's likely not partners with Gkrieg. The only way this list makes any sense is if his partners are Teproc and Joseph. But that doesn't make a ton of sense in light of how everyone else has played.

I reread the first 500 posts. I'm done. I have thoughts but I'll share them later when I reread the other half.

When do you think this will be done? I am interested in hearing thoughts as they come

e has consistently interacted with me, pushed me to reread, and challenged me more than anyone else this game. And he was always pushing me to re-evaluate my reads on J Reggie & Gkrieg, re-evaluate my reads on Faust & Roadrunner. Why push a town to question their own reads so much when as scum you know they are scum-reading people who are not from your faction? You can just let them lynch the towns and lose.

All in all, e had a super-townie D2. His only mistake was scumreading Jake. Everyone else he pushed is scum if he is town.

E D3

Town: iguana, eevee, e, X

Everyone else, scum

Continuing to stick with this when the PoE is getting worse and worse for scum seems bad for mafia. See for instance how Teproc has changed his tune...

Mafia:
Ashersky
J Reggie

Werewolf:
Gkrieg
Jake

Town:
e
Eevee
Iguana

Which leaves me a spot in town and a spot in mafia for teproc/Joseph. Haven't decided which is which. We will see how terrible my reads are after the game

I think the way things have shifted slightly in this list from D2, and now have more things incorrect than his previous list, is also towny. Again, this list only makes sense if e and Joseph are partners. But if the team is Teproc/Joseph/e, why would Teproc start D4 pushing so hard for Joseph when he could have an easy mislynch and win in J Reggie instead? It doesn't add up... e's town narrative is much simpler.

Note that e also pushes J Reggie on D3. He pushes J Reggie every single day.

In other news, I just reread Jake, and I really don't know if he is scum anymore.  I mean, his reads are SO TERRIBLE the entire game that he can't actually be scum, can he?  Anyway, if he is, werewolf, like I said.

I don't think that I support lynching him today though.

Who are the first four again ?

I had said Jake, Faust, e, Robz.

Rereading Teproc I stumbled on this.  Iguana can't be 100% wrong here, can he?  So Jake has to be scum, right?

Wow, the way e flipflops his read on Jake here looks towny! As mafia on D3 when PoE is getting worse and worse, why would you do this? You can't even control who wolves kill, so it's not like he was setting up to kill Jake and look towny for it.... Maybe if he had reason to believe wolves would take the bait on Jake, he would do that kind of gambit? The possibility just seems very remote. I mean, how likely is it that anyone even notices these posts later?

Not if they know they can get away with it (that's what happened with mail-mi in GoT and why it was on my mind, but certainly there are other examples, including any Awaclus scum win).

If it posts like scum, looks like scum, thinks like scum....might be scum.  Teproc has done none of that this entire game.  I actually have not been paying too much attention to Teproc at all, and I should have been.  He has had some great posts and thoughts.  Will not lynch today.  Town.

Hm.

After this, e starts pushing Gkrieg again. He then states willingness to vote for anyone among Jake, Ash, J Reggie. I guess, if e is mafia and J Reggie is not, that makes some sense.

E D4

Maybe J Reggie is the best choice then :/

My biggest concern (based on that last post and that post alone) is werewolf!Reggie.

I could be talked into lynching teproc probably

So if e is mafia: wait, what? He's been pushing J Reggie for mafia ALL GAME. I finally come around to the idea that J Reggie is our best lynch. Instead of encouraging me for THE WIN AS MAFIA, he says "Oh, J Reggie could be a wolf. We need to think about that." WHY??? The ONLY WAY this post makes any sense for scum!e is if e has actually been bussing his partner all game and now he wants us to back off of that.

Conclusions:

e/J Reggie partners - Very unlikely - e would have had to be bussing all game. Why?
e/Teproc partners - somewhat likely. e has been hedging on Teproc to be sure, and Teproc has been hedging back on e.
e/Gkrieg partners - Not very likely. The way that e pushes Gkrieg just does not look partnery at all. This is probably the least likely of things.
e/Joseph partners - somewhat likely in isolation - But if Teproc is the third, why would he open today pushing for Joseph? So that would mean e/Joseph/J Reggie and e has been bussing J Reggie all game? I don't think I buy it.

The biggest piece of evidence for e being scum is that he has played an awesome town game for four straight days and never once been on the kill list. If e is scum here, he is like Galzria-in-M100 scum, the kind of scum that looks so towny that he can't possibly be town.

We're not lynching e today, that would be stupid. But I can't just assume I can sheep e for the rest of the game and win either.

[Teproc]

Anyway, this is not the main subject for today. But I really don't have time to reread right now, and this I've got down, or at least I'm convinced I do.

PPE: Well, I agree (with gkrieg's vote), but please be vigilant, everyone.

[iguanaiguana]

It's insane to me that you conclude "99% scum" here. INsane. Lean townie because of the townslip, maybe, but you are confirm biasing yourself to death. I guess that could be said of me too... but I'm right.

Actually what's insane is that you are trying to wolf-hunt on D4 where if we lynch a wolf, we lose.

Oh wait, you're mafia. So you have a different wincon and want the opposite of what I want.

Proceed, then.

[iguanaiguana]

Your (iguana) assumption that scum doesn't fabricate cases in multiball is, I think, wrong. I think my only scum multiball game was MOnsters UNiversity, in which I pushed a lynch on joth with a case that had some genuine aspects, but that I continued pushing hard even after I thought joth had responded to it in a very townie way. Lynching the other scum is nice, but - especially early on - I think the focus is still on lynching not-your-faction.

You might be right that mafia fabricates cases on D1. Mafia doesn't want to lynch wolves D1 because they need to keep wolves around for a while to kill town for them. So they are fabricating - trying to get a town lynched.

But wolves want to lynch mafia. Their number one priority is to get mafia lynched. So wolves are not fabricating cases. If Eevee thinks scum is fabricating cases, he's probably not thinking like the only kind of scum he could be.

[iguanaiguana]

Iguana's out for the day. Definitely don't have time to reread Teproc.

[Teproc]

Also, how have I changed my tune on PoE ? I think you'll see that I haven't.

I disagree that having correct reads is townie, but I agree e isn't mafia. He's the maaaaybe Werewolf if I'm wrong about Eevee, essentially.

PPE: Dude, figuring Werewolves out helps PoE. Also, I'm not worried for today. I think we're going to lynch Joseph and he's goingf to flip scum. What I'm worried about is the next day, when you'll want to lynch me. Finally, I need to do work for the other stuff, that I'm prepared to but can't right now, whereas Eevee seems pretty obvious to me.

[Teproc]

HEre's a hint for you: me disagreeing on literally everything with you does not mean we're different factions. You're making the same mistake I've made in the past with faust, or more recently with WW.

[Teproc]

It's insane to me that you conclude "99% scum" here. INsane. Lean townie because of the townslip, maybe, but you are confirm biasing yourself to death. I guess that could be said of me too... but I'm right.

Actually what's insane is that you are trying to wolf-hunt on D4 where if we lynch a wolf, we lose.

Oh wait, you're mafia. So you have a different wincon and want the opposite of what I want.

Proceed, then.

Seriously, this is infuriating. You know this is bullshit. YOu know figuring out the WW helps because he's one guy we know we definitely don't want to lynch. You know this.

[Eevee]

Sorry, very VLA. A week of 12 hour days renovating our extended family's summer house up north is concluding tomorrow, I'm taking the night train home 24 hours from now, will catch up then the latest.

I'm super confused @Teproc. How does me voting for ash most of the game make you conclude i have to be his lone partner? Can you give me some points to respond to? Legit all I see is you spinning anything I say as scummy. Doesn't feel good, man! (needless to say [hmm maybe not], townread on teproc is fading. Iguana's reads align with mine. Hard to see townteproc seeing things so differently, but i guess the biggest disagreements are often town on town. I have a lot of respect for teprocs mafia game and analysis (in general), so i'm mostly just confused as to what's going on.

Very much agree with Iguana's analysis. Too bad identifying one (or two if I'm right about e) town might not be enough. I'm souring on multiball.

Unrelated: I'm very blessed with great cousins and aunts. It's been a great week!

[Eevee]

It's insane to me that you conclude "99% scum" here. INsane. Lean townie because of the townslip, maybe, but you are confirm biasing yourself to death. I guess that could be said of me too... but I'm right.

it's you confirmation biasing us (maybe, or not?) to death!!

[iguanaiguana]

Eevee, there's only three town. Trying to identify more than three would be uh bad.

[gkrieg13]

Eevee, there's only three town. Trying to identify more than three would be uh bad.

You should've let him do it.

[gkrieg13]

The longer my vote stays on Joseph, the better I feel about it.

[iguanaiguana]

Gkrieg, your vote on him feels like a scum claim to me. Maybe try to defend it?

[gkrieg13]

Gkrieg, your vote on him feels like a scum claim to me. Maybe try to defend it?

How does it feel like a scum claim?  Right now I know there are only two other town, and I think one of them is you/Eevee.  Then the other one of you is ash's partner (I'm leaning Eevee atm).  That means that there is only one other town, which means that between Teproc/J Reggie/Joseph/e, there is one town and 3 mafia.  I'm leaning towards either Teproc or e being the town, with much more leaning on e.

The thing that makes me hesitate on e, is that he was pretty scummy with how he was throwing his vote around at the end of the day with you, which I think is pretty scummy because mafia don't really care at that point, as long as it isn't one of their own lynched.

Do you mean make a case on Joseph?  I could definitely do that.

[iguanaiguana]

So you think his partners are J Reggie and one of Teproc or e?

[gkrieg13]

So you think his partners are J Reggie and one of Teproc or e?

By POE, this must be true with one assumption; we believe that mafia didn't put any of their own people on the list. The town/WW group must consist of me, iguanaiguana, Eevee, and one more.  So the three mafia must be three of J Reggie, Joseph, Teproc and e.  The only one of that group that I haven't ever gotten townie vibes from is Joseph.  Also, I think the lurkier people are, the more mafiay they are, because of daychat, so he really fits the best as mafia.

[Teproc]

Eevee, there's only three town. Trying to identify more than three would be uh bad.

Scumslip: Eevee still has one town to identify after you and e.

Only half-serious, but I think it's about as relevant as his townslips, at least the first one.

[Teproc]

I'm super confused @Teproc. How does me voting for ash most of the game make you conclude i have to be his lone partner? Can you give me some points to respond to? Legit all I see is you spinning anything I say as scummy. Doesn't feel good, man! (needless to say [hmm maybe not], townread on teproc is fading. Iguana's reads align with mine. Hard to see townteproc seeing things so differently, but i guess the biggest disagreements are often town on town. I have a lot of respect for teprocs mafia game and analysis (in general), so i'm mostly just confused as to what's going on.

You voted for ash... except when it actually mattered. That's as partner-y as it gets. It's of course possible you're unlucky town having a correct read on ash and the lynch on him just went through with you absent. But, based on your overall play, it seems much more likely to me that you're a WW.

Giving gkrieg and Teproc a pass for trying to keep us going today seems fine, so to me J Reggie > ash/Jake/ > not so interested in others (Joseph is probably scum too?).

I like Teproc's point about gkrieg mentioning the scum wifom being suspicious, I think that makes sense.

This is you on D3. ash is scum, sure, but no let's look at that other guy over there.

Now, again, you may be town. And hey, you have another day ahead of you to convince me of that, so good news. I'm told WW-hunting is a scumtell, so I'll move on now.

Gkrieg's vote on Joseph, aside from the fact that I agree, is interesting (hi Ichi). I certainly think scum is less hesitant to vote here... well, probably ? Is gkrieg a confident type of town ? I've gathered he's now considered one of the best townies around, this wasn't really the case when I was playing (he was just starting out, and I'm not sure I've even played with town!gkrieg actually, aside from Firefly). If so, I guess he'd be more likely than most to vote confidently in such a situation. Not sure.

[2.71828.....]

The longer my vote stays on Joseph, the better I feel about it.

Yes

[iguanaiguana]

The longer my vote stays on Joseph, the better I feel about it.

Yes

What?

[2.71828.....]

The longer my vote stays on Joseph, the better I feel about it.

Yes

What?

No scum quick hammer means Joseph is likely scum himself