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Author Topic: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ The ORDER OF THE PHOENIX WINS  (Read 169573 times)

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faust

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #450 on: November 17, 2015, 07:35:33 pm »

I don't see the RR thing. He doesn't vote; there have been other games where he didn't vote also.

link or it didn't happen

Did this get a response. Faust is making a defense but not providing evidence to back it up. I'll provide evidence of my case showing RR Omgus in all finished games up to this point when I am back on a computer. Phone posting sucks.

Nah... you're right, he does a lot of OMGUS. I specifically remember getting in a fight with him because he refused to vote though, but I can't remember in which game that was.
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faust

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #451 on: November 17, 2015, 07:36:31 pm »

Dayvig: faust

Of course if you actually were a Dayvig, you would use your power on Awaclus!
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silverspawn

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #452 on: November 17, 2015, 07:36:42 pm »

I don't see the RR thing. He doesn't vote; there have been other games where he didn't vote also.

link or it didn't happen

Did this get a response. Faust is making a defense but not providing evidence to back it up. I'll provide evidence of my case showing RR Omgus in all finished games up to this point when I am back on a computer. Phone posting sucks.

Nah... you're right, he does a lot of OMGUS. I specifically remember getting in a fight with him because he refused to vote though, but I can't remember in which game that was.

I remember that, but that was because he suddenly thought town should no-lynch, so I think it's different.

silverspawn

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #453 on: November 17, 2015, 07:37:23 pm »

yuma, how confident are you in the RR lynch? 40%? 50%? 60%?

Haddock

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #454 on: November 17, 2015, 07:37:54 pm »

My reasons for the faust vote, as promised. 

Firstly, his vote on iguana is really quite suspiciously timed.  Feels like scum getting on a mislynch.  He says that the iguana vote "seems like a good starting point", without reference to the reason for the vote. We can assume that the reason is the apparent scumslip, but then why does he feel the need to add that decoration to his vote?  Seems unfausty.

More to the point, I'm not sure town!faust votes iguana on the basis of a tenuous "scumslip" like that anyway.

He then makes two posts misunderstanding other people:
Ash seems the scummiest, because he is the one who looks like he knew the most what he was doing. A lot of other people didn't even realize it was a lynch until it happened (Yuma, WW).

That said, they could be faking that they didn't know what was up in order to look less scummy.

Asking me to analyze this is ridiculous, though. I seriously know nothing any more than any other town person knows right now. You all should be analyzing it!

We have tomorrow to analyze it, with the added info of your flip, assuming we as individuals live through the night...

You have until efhw is online...

How do you know you have until tomorrow?

and

It would have been so much cooler if he was scum.

So you already know he's not? Interesting.

This second one in particular reads as an intentional misunderstanding, perhaps an attempt to cast suspicion.

That's it, really.  It's not the strongest thing ever, but enough to justify the vote, I think.  I've been paying only a little attention today, so again I'll have to catch up tomorrow; it's not unlikely that at that point I might find someone I'd rather vote for than faust.

Not really convinced by the RR thing, but I'll read the arguments for/against tomorrow. 

Sleeping now.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #455 on: November 17, 2015, 07:38:38 pm »

That was in blitz Mafia I think. And Awaclus and Yuma seem a teensy bit scummy, but not enough for me to defend that claim.
PPE 2
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silverspawn

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #456 on: November 17, 2015, 07:40:14 pm »

That was in blitz Mafia I think. And Awaclus and Yuma seem a teensy bit scummy, but not enough for me to defend that claim.
PPE 2

No, I don't think it was in blitz. I don't like blitz and don't follow blitz but I remember it, therefore it has to have been somewhere else.

yuma

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #457 on: November 17, 2015, 07:55:32 pm »

yuma, how confident are you in the RR lynch? 40%? 50%? 60%?

Let's see, 11 alive, take me away 3.33 scum. That is a guesstimate given possibilities for 2 or 3 mafia and a SK. So that is 33%. I would add an extra 10%. So 43%?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #458 on: November 17, 2015, 07:57:25 pm »

yuma, how confident are you in the RR lynch? 40%? 50%? 60%?

Let's see, 11 alive, take me away 3.33 scum. That is a guesstimate given possibilities for 2 or 3 mafia and a SK. So that is 33%. I would add an extra 10%. So 43%?
The fact that you think everyone has a 33% chance sends up a red flag.
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yuma

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #459 on: November 17, 2015, 07:59:06 pm »

Dayvig: faust

Of course if you actually were a Dayvig, you would use your power on Awaclus!

Naturally. But I am assuming I am a 2-shot.
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yuma

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #460 on: November 17, 2015, 08:00:01 pm »

yuma, how confident are you in the RR lynch? 40%? 50%? 60%?

Let's see, 11 alive, take me away 3.33 scum. That is a guesstimate given possibilities for 2 or 3 mafia and a SK. So that is 33%. I would add an extra 10%. So 43%?
The fact that you think everyone has a 33% chance sends up a red flag.

Did I do the math wrong? Math is hard.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #461 on: November 17, 2015, 08:01:45 pm »

No, I think you did it right. But some people are townier, and math with numbers can't figure that out.

And was the DayVig thing a joke? Or did you just kill Faust?
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yuma

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #462 on: November 17, 2015, 08:13:19 pm »

No, I think you did it right. But some people are townier, and math with numbers can't figure that out.

And was the DayVig thing a joke? Or did you just kill Faust?

Right but as a base taking reads completely out of it that is the odds people have. I think you are 10%, whatever that means, scummier than a person who is completely null... Which I agree doesn't truly exist cause that is a vacuum situation. But ss asked me to give a percentage, so there you go.

And Faust has died. Spiritually, figuratively, metaphysically, subjectively, abstractly... You take your pick.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #463 on: November 17, 2015, 08:14:52 pm »

You killed Faust? So does that make you an IC?

And why wouldn't you kill me?
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silverspawn

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #464 on: November 17, 2015, 08:55:57 pm »

only 10%? mh...

Awaclus

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #465 on: November 17, 2015, 08:58:27 pm »

You killed Faust? So does that make you an IC?

Does it look like there's a dayvig in the setup?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #466 on: November 17, 2015, 09:04:53 pm »

You killed Faust? So does that make you an IC?

Does it look like there's a dayvig in the setup?
Not that I read the setup, but I don't think there is.
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Awaclus

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #467 on: November 17, 2015, 09:09:25 pm »

Not that I read the setup, but I don't think there is.

Okay, now I'm not going to unvote you until you've stopped unvoting yourself and read the setup.
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Awaclus

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #468 on: November 17, 2015, 09:09:43 pm »

Not that I read the setup, but I don't think there is.

Okay, now I'm not going to unvote you until you've stopped unvoting yourself and read the setup.

*stopped voting yourself
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yuma

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #469 on: November 17, 2015, 09:15:46 pm »

only 10%? mh...

Do you have an expected number or something? What is enough to be willing to lynch someone?
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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #470 on: November 17, 2015, 09:26:41 pm »

only 10%? mh...

Do you have an expected number or something? What is enough to be willing to lynch someone?

no, no, 10% is fine to lynch someone. it's just not enough to make me vote for RR right now. His self-voting screams town.

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #471 on: November 17, 2015, 09:39:09 pm »

only 10%? mh...

Do you have an expected number or something? What is enough to be willing to lynch someone?

no, no, 10% is fine to lynch someone. it's just not enough to make me vote for RR right now. His self-voting screams town.

Someday I am actually going to go through with my project and compile all the lists of times people self vote and see their alignment. I want to say that they are more often scum (well within proportions of town to mafia ratio wise) but that might just be selective memory bias coming into play.

Regardless I certainly not unvoting until he moves his vote. Precedent and anti town and all that crap. Plus I just think it is scummy...
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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #472 on: November 17, 2015, 09:49:58 pm »

I don't want to move my vote until we hear from Joseph. Why is it such a big deal that I'm self voting?

And Awaclus, I read the setup. Yuma is a liar.
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Awaclus

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #473 on: November 17, 2015, 09:58:16 pm »

Someday I am actually going to go through with my project and compile all the lists of times people self vote and see their alignment. I want to say that they are more often scum (well within proportions of town to mafia ratio wise) but that might just be selective memory bias coming into play.

Regardless I certainly not unvoting until he moves his vote. Precedent and anti town and all that crap. Plus I just think it is scummy...

Huh, this actually reminds me of something.

Vote: Haddock I guess.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ (Day 2)
« Reply #474 on: November 17, 2015, 10:00:20 pm »

So now I have three votes?
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