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[scott_pilgrim]

I haven't posted in a few days, I've still been following along, just haven't had much to say.

I am still leaning toward no lynch, though I like PPS's explanation that it comes down to how likely a correct lynch is compared to a mislynch, my intuition says it is not enough to make up for the difference between the outcomes.  Still open to arguments to the contrary though.

I will be traveling tomorrow so I will not be able to post for most of the day.

[pingpongsam]

Can we get a prod on Robz?

[Jimmmmm]

Don't prod me, I'm here! Catching up.

[Jimmmmm]

Also, I don't think a prod on Robz is necessary or will help much:

Sorry all, I have ended up having a bit more extended VLA than I thought, squeezing in a quick trip to NYC on top of everything else.

I will update Survivor and attempt to participate in mafia tomorrow, Sunday.

[yuma]

My position on no-lynch, or how I learned to stop worrying and love the vote:

If we mislynch today we know for certain we will hit a PR.

I think this isn't what I am worried about. Hitting a PR isn't the issue for me in a sense... Rather, it is my belief that the longer this game goes the more information we will collectively obtain from our PRs... That is I think mafia wants a shorter game to give as little time as possible for town PRs to do their thing, whereas I think town wants the longer game to allow as many PRs as possible to be effective. A PR that doesn't get used because we are at lylo on day4 (Day1 13 players, mislynch, NK> Day2 11mislynch, NK Day3 9 mislynch, NK>7 mislynch=6 and mafia wins) or day5 is obviously quite useless. So by just having 2 no-lynches we only deal with (Day1 13 players, NK>Day2 12 players NK>Day3 11 players, mislynch, NK>Day4 9 players mislynch, NK>Day5 7 mislynch=6 and mafia wins) gives us an extra day to get toward those PRs being effective.

So basically it is trading two town controlled kills (that might hit mafia) for two certain mafia controlled kills and one extra day of investigative power that may bring something with it....

And when I put it in those terms, I am less enamored with the idea...

Vote: Robz

[yuma]

delayed PPE... I know Robz is somewhat VLA, but he still gets my vote. If he were in my shoes I think he would agree as he is totally for LALL...

[sudgy]

Can we get a prod on Robz?

Based on his V/LA announcement, I will give him until the end of tomorrow before prodding him.

[Twistedarcher]

Yuma, how much is voting robz a policy vote versus thinking he will turn up scum?

Like, I get where the idea comes from, but I learn nothing from lunching him,,, I would rather lynch someone I get info from, like pps 

Also I dunno if I answered earlier or not, I think Faust asked this, but I was referring to lynching pps giving info, not copping pps. I am seriously struggling so hard to read pps. I don't have a gut read on him And it's difficult, his actions are scummy and I'm not sure if he's scum or not, I haven't played with him and I don't know. I have two gut reads right now, and that's Faust as town, eevee as mafia. Beyond that I don't know.

[yuma]

Yuma, how much is voting robz a policy vote versus thinking he will turn up scum?

Like, I get where the idea comes from, but I learn nothing from lunching him,,, I would rather lynch someone I get info from, like pps 

I don't really do policy votes.

What I do do is eliminate players who I am not willing to vote for and then that leaves me with players that I am. Robz 1. is in that group of players 2. Lurking, which I think day1 is more scummy than townie, even with his VLA 3. had the most votes on him (or now has the most votes on him), and at this stage we need to get some wagons going so we can get that precious information you are so interested in to analyze later.

Speaking about info... of course we will get info. Saying anything else is silly. If we get to the point where Robz is lynched we 1. get his flip (info!), 2. nealry everyone is going to have to take a stand (info!) and 3 Robz will likely come in and be either apologetic or rather rilled up that we are voting for him for lurking and likely give reads before we lynch him (info!)

So I am quite happy with my robz vote!

[faust]

I haven't posted in a few days, I've still been following along, just haven't had much to say.

I am still leaning toward no lynch, though I like PPS's explanation that it comes down to how likely a correct lynch is compared to a mislynch, my intuition says it is not enough to make up for the difference between the outcomes.  Still open to arguments to the contrary though.

I will be traveling tomorrow so I will not be able to post for most of the day.

Even if you do not want to vote, it would be helpful to say which players you think could be scum.

[Twistedarcher]

I disagree Yuma..asking players to make a stand on robz and then trying to use that as information is silly. Because there's absolutely no reason to know if he is town or scum, and town members who don't have that information are just guessing when they pick, and it probably reflects broader views than anything we can glean from alignment. Until he comes back I don't know how anyone can get a good read on him, and without a read, town members can't place a vote that can be analyzed... Like if he were to not come back and get lynched, and flip town, I don't know how we could find the people who voted him scummy since the majority were townies that had no clue.

No reads on robz -> no meaningful reasons for votes by townies -> very hard to read any wagon on robz. I just don't think he's any more likely to be scum than the normal 3/13 odds, and I'm not willing to lynch on those odds.

[pingpongsam]

I guess you missed the part where he is expected to participate today and finding votes on him should pressure out an informative reaction.

[Eevee]

No reads on robz -> no meaningful reasons for votes by townies -> very hard to read any wagon on robz. I just don't think he's any more likely to be scum than the normal 3/13 odds, and I'm not willing to lynch on those odds.

That's not entirely true, as your reads on others players change the original 3/13 a bit.

Fwiw, I'm sure this is not intentional, the man is just busy. It's unfortunate, but I don't think it makes him any more likely to be scum.

[faust]

My position on no-lynch, or how I learned to stop worrying and love the vote:

If we mislynch today we know for certain we will hit a PR.

I think this isn't what I am worried about. Hitting a PR isn't the issue for me in a sense... Rather, it is my belief that the longer this game goes the more information we will collectively obtain from our PRs... That is I think mafia wants a shorter game to give as little time as possible for town PRs to do their thing, whereas I think town wants the longer game to allow as many PRs as possible to be effective. A PR that doesn't get used because we are at lylo on day4 (Day1 13 players, mislynch, NK> Day2 11mislynch, NK Day3 9 mislynch, NK>7 mislynch=6 and mafia wins) or day5 is obviously quite useless. So by just having 2 no-lynches we only deal with (Day1 13 players, NK>Day2 12 players NK>Day3 11 players, mislynch, NK>Day4 9 players mislynch, NK>Day5 7 mislynch=6 and mafia wins) gives us an extra day to get toward those PRs being effective.

So basically it is trading two town controlled kills (that might hit mafia) for two certain mafia controlled kills and one extra day of investigative power that may bring something with it....

And when I put it in those terms, I am less enamored with the idea...

Vote: Robz

I think you got it wrong here. The advantage we get from no-lynching is not mainly that we get an extra Day to investigate. It is that all of our PRs have a higher chance of surviving until their night action comes and thus us getting significantly more night actions.

With no-lynch, by D6 we will have 5 dead town players (maybe less if a doc is successful). This means it is certain that we have 5 night actions going through.

Putting it in another way, it looks like this (ignoring possible doc protection because it's too complicated to calculate):

Likelihood of Investigation going through     No-Lynch    Lynch
Night 1                                                 90,0%        82,5%
Night 2                                                 80,0%        65,5%
Night 3                                                 70,0%        49,0%
Night 4                                                 60,0%        33,3%
Night 5                                                 50,0%        18,8%

I still think it's worth it to increase the odds that our investigations (of which we have at least 4) to go through.

[pingpongsam]

Lynching increases targeting relevance well ahead of just random.

If the interest in increasing the odds of a successful investigation I still see lynching as being the more ideal option.

[Twistedarcher]

Agree with pps

[pingpongsam]

Ah the delicious irony of you agreeing with me that we should lynch seeing as you're voting for my lynch

[Jimmmmm]

I agree, no-lynch is unhelpful. We need interactions and opinions, not statistics.

[Robz888]

delayed PPE... I know Robz is somewhat VLA, but he still gets my vote. If he were in my shoes I think he would agree as he is totally for LALL...

But it's not scummy when Robz does it!

Okay, I'm really sorry everyone--I have just had an insanely busy week. As you can see, I barely had time for the other game (which is at a more improtant stage) and Survivor (where the only game relies on me doing stuff).

So I can definitely participate more now, although I'm still behind, and reading through the whole thread seems pretty daunting, although I plan to get to it.

So what's going on?

[Robz888]

Okay, no one is really around I guess.

Yuma, I don't understand why you are voting for me, even though you explained it. Or rather, I think your explanation fails. Do you think my level of participation so far in this game is actually affected by my alignment? It would surprise me if you really did think that.

[Eevee]

I viewed yuma's vote as "this is unacceptable, Robz better come back strong and help us read him".

As to what has been happening, my take would be "lots of theory talk, faust being suspected again, PPS acting controversially, most people generally struggling with finding stuff worth analyzing".

Sadly, I don't think we've created anything that would be useful to reread later when we have some flips and more information. I feel we are still trying to get the game going.

[Robz888]

Who do you think is scummy, Eevee?

[Eevee]

Who do you think is scummy, Eevee?

That's the thing, I have no idea. There hasn't been any substance posted that would have given me any strong reads, not even the "if x, then y" kind. I think PPS is towny, I think all this theory talk has made the start of the day very easy for scum.

Honestly you've probably posted more content than I have. In that sense it's maybe noteworthy you are getting called out so strongly.

[yuma]

I disagree Yuma..asking players to make a stand on robz and then trying to use that as information is silly. Because there's absolutely no reason to know if he is town or scum, and town members who don't have that information are just guessing when they pick, and it probably reflects broader views than anything we can glean from alignment. Until he comes back I don't know how anyone can get a good read on him, and without a read, town members can't place a vote that can be analyzed... Like if he were to not come back and get lynched, and flip town, I don't know how we could find the people who voted him scummy since the majority were townies that had no clue.

No reads on robz -> no meaningful reasons for votes by townies -> very hard to read any wagon on robz. I just don't think he's any more likely to be scum than the normal 3/13 odds, and I'm not willing to lynch on those odds.

Nope. This is wrong. For example, the above which you just provided... is something that we can look back on and analyze and is something we wouldn't have if we weren't considering robz for a lynch. If robz flips town, we can use it, if robz flips scum we can use it. If robz doesn't flip we can use it. It might not be extremely, super useful, but it is "information."

and you are talking about this entire conjecture in a vacuum. like everyone is just going to say "not vote robz" or "vote robz" and have nothing else to say or that there won't be other lynch options floating around....

Basically you are arguing from my perspective that the only players we should consider lynching are those who have lots of content that is already available to analyze--so the complete opposite of LALL and the complete opposite of what Voltaire, Galz and I have proposed to be the better way of scum hunting with far superior results than lynching active players day1.

Look, I am not saying we are going to get an abundance of information by lynching Robz. But I don't vote for information. I vote to lynch, hopefully, and if not then to leave alive players that will be easier to read on later days because of their content...

[yuma]

Okay, no one is really around I guess.

Yuma, I don't understand why you are voting for me, even though you explained it. Or rather, I think your explanation fails. Do you think my level of participation so far in this game is actually affected by my alignment? It would surprise me if you really did think that.

I am voting for you because you aren't in my list of players that I don't want to vote for and because I don't think you are more likely to be town than scum, compared to other players and are thus someone I would vote for.

I do think your participation so far in this game is affected by your alignment. I understand the VLA and understand that it has lessened it regardless of your alignment, but I do think that you are willing to take advantage of said VLAs. Look, I am not trying to be a jerk and say that you should have posted more during your VLA, I just think that the times that you have posted during your VLA, before and after as it appears it is over lack any desire to respond to current ongoing events even if you aren't fully caught up. But really that is all water under the bridge. Mostly I don't have a townread on you so I am willing to vote for you. If your wagon doesn't progress, I am willing to look elsewhere, but I want to at least see what happens here.