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[Voltaire]

Is it time for me to do D1 POE and get misunderstood? It's time for me to do D1 POE and get misunderstood.

sudgy, can you please update the OP with the current player list? nkirbit is still listed.

Post count (no pre-game):
50 Twistedarcher
44 Jimmmmm
42 yuma - Pass and/or don't lynch yuma D1.
36 Voltaire - me!
32 pingpongsam
30 faust - a big town read for me
28 Teproc
13 Archetype
11 AHoppy
8 chairs - town read due to forgetting about the game
7 Eevee
7 scott_pilgrim - don't lynch new players D1 unless they claim scum
3 Robz888 - doesn't play D1 as town

There's more I could do here, and almost certainly will later, but man this game just being theory (mostly) so far sucks.

I want to vote: AHoppy.

[Voltaire]

And by that I mean, I am very hesitant to eliminate the top posters like I usually do since scum probably posted about theory a lot.

[yuma]

Town read on chairs.

This again ? Is there a reason you might want to share with us ?

He forgot about the game.

I had this read on chairs before, and someone tried to tell me he could be scum, but he turned out to be town. I've yet to see scum pull that gambit.

I quite agree with this sentiment

[yuma]

Selfishly, though...I want to play mafia, and that involves lynching people.

Same. Toy Story sucked.

I'll no-lynch on later days when it makes sense as a one- or two-off, but not consistently.

Well toy story was lame because we were leaving everything to mafia.... town didn't get to do anything during the night. That is not the case here. That is why the argument is compelling (and is often compelling in RMM games) here... people have stuff to do during the night. So I wouldn't compare this game to Toy Story.

At this point I would be willing to vote: no lynch.

If we aren't going to do that, I think my lynch candidates are 1. Robz--his meta is that he doesn't care when he is town, but he exploits that far too often and I wonder if he is here... 2. teproc--probably my biggest scum read, I'll expand later when I have a chance 3. faust--don't see the townread from voltaire... 4.

Hmmm maybe those three are the main ones. Others I could, but I prefer one of those three, but prefer no lynch to everything right now...

[Archetype]

I'll Vote: Eevee for being a low poster. Townread on PPS still.

[Eevee]

I think Yuma reacted in a mostly towny way to my vote. And I really don't want to lynch Yuma d1 unless I'm positive he's scum, which I am not here.

Still think that eevee isn't playing like himself -- I associate town d1 eevee with being unsure and not really contributing much until he can get his reads together a bit. Which I didn't see here. vote: eevee

Haha, it feels extremely weird to argue this point, but I haven't really contributed very much today. I feel a lot like myself!

[Teproc]

2. teproc--probably my biggest scum read, I'll expand later when I have a chance

Excited to hear it, although I'm surprisd to be "2" if I'm really your biggest scum read.

[Twistedarcher]

Weirdly enough, I agree almost entirely with Voltaire's list, and the majority of his reads, it seems. Go Voltaire!

[Eevee]

I wouldn't eliminate yuma, but I would eliminate PPS (and myself). So mostly agree as well!

[yuma]

2. teproc--probably my biggest scum read, I'll expand later when I have a chance

Excited to hear it, although I'm surprisd to be "2" if I'm really your biggest scum read.

Working backwards from the bottom up of the post list that voltaire posted... so not in order just 1.2.3.4 (except there wasn't a fourth I was very interested in lynching)

[Voltaire]

No no no didn't you read my post? You're supposed to misunderstand it! 

[Teproc]

No no no didn't you read my post? You're supposed to misunderstand it! 

Oh god Voltaire is doing PoE already ? So useless and stupid !

[Twistedarcher]

I wouldn't eliminate yuma, but I would eliminate PPS (and myself). So mostly agree as well!

Why PPS?

[faust]

Do you think I'm scum, pps?

I don't know. I think you are my favorite target for discovering your alignment because if I could know you were town I would be able to set said my suspicions and discover a better focus. If I thought you were for sure scum I'd be voting you right now.

It's these Cop softclaims that are the reason for my policy vote. Especially coming from someone who argued strongly against claiming.

[Eevee]

I wouldn't eliminate yuma, but I would eliminate PPS (and myself). So mostly agree as well!

Why PPS?

He is a townread, and while he admitted recognizing that the out there behavior is an easy way to score town cred from me, it's also what got him lynched as a VT in his second game (despite my vehement opposition!), so I don't think he'd choose to create convoluted conspiracy theories as a ploy for town cred.

Also, he is active and keeps the game moving, and I think his creative ideas are generally good for our scumhunting morale.

[pingpongsam]

Do you think I'm scum, pps?

I don't know. I think you are my favorite target for discovering your alignment because if I could know you were town I would be able to set said my suspicions and discover a better focus. If I thought you were for sure scum I'd be voting you right now.

It's these Cop softclaims that are the reason for my policy vote. Especially coming from someone who argued strongly against claiming.

Interesting take on that. I actually meant it more as a cop directive than as "Imma target you with my cop power which must be fairly early or else why would I mention it like this, so kill me ASAP there scum guys, derp".

I'll be happy to take your double vote on me for trying to direct Town cops, though.

[pingpongsam]

Also, TA immediately echoed me. Why do I get the vote and you ignore him doing the same?

[faust]

Also, TA immediately echoed me. Why do I get the vote and you ignore him doing the same?

I just think it's strange that people would A) comment on their night action before it happens or B) try to tell other players what to do with their night action. Both seem more scummy things to do. TA did this a little bit, but no as much as you.

But I guess I am back to vote: no lynch, because that's still the best we can do.

[faust]

3. faust--don't see the townread from voltaire...

Is the only reason why you would lynch me because you don't have a town read on me?

[AHoppy]

I don't think no lynch is the best option.  I think we can do better than that, and it will give us more info for D2.  I don't think we can be afraid of killing a PR, because everyone is a PR!  I don't think that is a valid excuse.  For all we know, we won't even get any results tomorrow.  I'm going to be V/LA until probably tuesday as I am moving back to school and settling in.  Lemme know if Robz ever shows up...

[faust]

I don't think no lynch is the best option.  I think we can do better than that, and it will give us more info for D2.  I don't think we can be afraid of killing a PR, because everyone is a PR!  I don't think that is a valid excuse.  For all we know, we won't even get any results tomorrow.  I'm going to be V/LA until probably tuesday as I am moving back to school and settling in.  Lemme know if Robz ever shows up...

You want to lynch for information, but the more people we keep alive until D5, the more info we get. So this argument doesn't work. And I think info from PRs is more important than wagon analysis.

[yuma]

3. faust--don't see the townread from voltaire...

Is the only reason why you would lynch me because you don't have a town read on me?

Yep. That must be the reason. Couldn't be the reasons I was voting for you earlier, right?

[yuma]

I don't think no lynch is the best option.  I think we can do better than that, and it will give us more info for D2.  I don't think we can be afraid of killing a PR, because everyone is a PR!  I don't think that is a valid excuse.  For all we know, we won't even get any results tomorrow.  I'm going to be V/LA until probably tuesday as I am moving back to school and settling in.  Lemme know if Robz ever shows up...

You want to lynch for information, but the more people we keep alive until D5, the more info we get. So this argument doesn't work. And I think info from PRs is more important than wagon analysis.

Furthermore, the argument doesn't work because if we don't have Day1 now, Day2 will become the new Day1. So we won't be lacking information... the crucial aspect is that we will be down a player basically starting day1 over again but hopefully with some relevant information and a greater potential to obtain it later in the game.

[faust]

3. faust--don't see the townread from voltaire...

Is the only reason why you would lynch me because you don't have a town read on me?

Yep. That must be the reason. Couldn't be the reasons I was voting for you earlier, right?

Okay, reading again, your reasons were 1) I was "discouraging setup discussion" by voting pps, 2) I was one of the votes on pps, and according to you, scum would have voted for pps. Well, fair enough, it's D1 and there wasn't a lot besides theory talk, so I guess you could come to that conclusion.

[pingpongsam]

My position on no-lynch, or how I learned to stop worrying and love the vote:

If we mislynch today we know for certain we will hit a PR. The question is whether or not the information gained from the lynch outweighs the collateral damage of losing a PR. For D1 purposes the answer is a resounding no. The problem with using that as the basis for going into no lynch is the assumption that there somehow must be a mislynch.

If we do correctly lynch today then there becomes zero question that lynching was the best possible move to make.

So the question then fallaciously seems to start centering around how probable it is that we would correctly lynch. That is impossible to ever calculate because there is no way to account for which PR gets NK'd. If a N1 cop gets NK'd then there's a dramatic reduction in the utility gained by avoiding the mislynch of that N1 cop (even if there were another N1 cop in the game).

Thus, I posit that the positive coefficient of a correct lynch is sufficiently greater than the negative coefficient of a mislynch to make no-lynch the less attractive option precisely because it is Day 1.