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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 329671 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1525 on: December 10, 2015, 09:44:18 am »

Hmm, I misremembered some things. Need to refresh my memory

Also, had anyone but yuma and Haddock ever encountered not getting PPE?

I don't recall.  But, I have a hard time seeing Yuma (or, well, anyone) lie about this.    I mean you have the "scum wouldn't do it because it's a bad idea" effect to make it a better idea, but still.  He'd have to see the post before his and on-the-spot decide it's a  good idea to hammer and lie about it.  You'd tend to stop and consider the possible fallout as scum.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1526 on: December 10, 2015, 09:45:06 am »

If we think scum was not all-on wagon, we should definitely lynch off-wagon, thoseare some great odds (1/3 for off-wagon people, 1/4 for others).

1/4 is worse than random assuming 3 scum.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1527 on: December 10, 2015, 09:46:42 am »

If we think scum was not all-on wagon, we should definitely lynch off-wagon, thoseare some great odds (1/3 for off-wagon people, 1/4 for others).

1/4 is worse than random assuming 3 scum.

See, Yuma should have shot~
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1528 on: December 10, 2015, 09:48:30 am »

By the way, something I didn't mention earlier : it's notable that Haddock basically made the Awaclus lynch happen. One minute its e and Awaclus both at 4 votes, then Haddock switches and it's 3v5. I'm still not entirely sure what to do with that, but it's worth noting for later, especially once e flips.

PPE : Right. It looks better for me (mostly because I think Egork and Hydrad are both good scummy anyway).
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1529 on: December 10, 2015, 09:51:48 am »

PPE : Right. It looks better for me (mostly because I think Egork and Hydrad are both good scummy anyway).

Well, okay, but then you should really make a case for why they are scummy and not make some flimsy statistical argument.
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Haddock

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1530 on: December 10, 2015, 09:55:32 am »

I don't recall.  But, I have a hard time seeing Yuma (or, well, anyone) lie about this.    I mean you have the "scum wouldn't do it because it's a bad idea" effect to make it a better idea, but still.  He'd have to see the post before his and on-the-spot decide it's a  good idea to hammer and lie about it.  You'd tend to stop and consider the possible fallout as scum.
Hurr.  It is slightly reminiscent of Awa's hammer on RR, D2 in Harry Potter Mafia, which also looked like a very quick decision to hammer and then lie about why ("I thought RR was the vengeful...").  Different circumstances, though, that was a desperate bus.

By the way, something I didn't mention earlier : it's notable that Haddock basically made the Awaclus lynch happen. One minute its e and Awaclus both at 4 votes, then Haddock switches and it's 3v5. I'm still not entirely sure what to do with that, but it's worth noting for later, especially once e flips.
Yeah that was crazy.  I really didn't think that by putting him at L-2 it was going to make the lynch happen straight away.  I was kinda shocked when it happened so quickly after that, hence my couple of panic-mode posts.


fyi, my planned activities for later today include:
reread e and egor. (And maybe WW, he seems mildly scummy perhaps, but I don't know.  I don't expect to get much out of that reread.)
Take a look at the formation of the Awa wagon.

PPE
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1531 on: December 10, 2015, 09:56:22 am »

PPE : Right. It looks better for me (mostly because I think Egork and Hydrad are both good scummy anyway).

Well, okay, but then you should really make a case for why they are scummy and not make some flimsy statistical argument.

I have, actually. Right now I like your wagon more though. I like the deafening silence about it.

And I was thinking through the on/off wagon implications, didn't realize those odds really weren't that great for anyone besides me.

PPE : 1
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1532 on: December 10, 2015, 09:57:59 am »

By the way, something I didn't mention earlier : it's notable that Haddock basically made the Awaclus lynch happen. One minute its e and Awaclus both at 4 votes, then Haddock switches and it's 3v5. I'm still not entirely sure what to do with that, but it's worth noting for later, especially once e flips.

PPE : Right. It looks better for me (mostly because I think Egork and Hydrad are both good scummy anyway).

Huh.  On the other hand, I'm not so fond of his vote for Awaclus.  It was pretty heavily justified, which I often find to come from scum more than town. 
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1533 on: December 10, 2015, 09:58:03 am »

Hmm, I misremembered some things. Need to refresh my memory

Also, had anyone but yuma and Haddock ever encountered not getting PPE?

To be clear... I don't think that the not getting a PPE was the system's fault. I think it was a situation where I shouldn't have gotten a PPE because of some circumstantial issues.

Here is what the situation was for me.

I generally am not always on the forum. Most of the time because I am at work and don't want it just sitting open all day long. So, instead I subscribe to the f.ds e-mail system. This allows me to receive e-mail updates from the thread to my g-mail, which I feel more comfortable leaving open.

When I receive an e-mail from f.ds. If I am free, I read it. If I feel compelled to respond I click on the link that takes me to that specific post (well sometimes it takes me to the post that I had last read when I had last logged off, not sure what delineates that). From there I can hit the reply button and send a response.

So here is what I think happened:

Haddock posts at 4:01. This generates an e-mail to my system, which I get. Read and realize that I wasn't voting for Awaclus. I thought I was (and wanted to be), so that necessitates me to go in and post a vote. So I open the thread.

In the meantime RR posts at 4:02 and votes for awaclus. This also generates an e-mail. But I don't get it inbetween the time that I read the previous one and start posting. Because if I had seen the g-mail tab indicate that I had received another e-mail I would have stopped posting and gone to read it.

In addition ss posted at 4:02 and I didn't get an e-mail for that. Well I did for both, but they came a bit later. I deleted them from my g-mail, otherwise it gets super jammed up, so I can't go back and check the exact times that they came in.

And i posted my post with the vote at 4:03. So everything went down in the space of about 2 minutes.

Now. I believe that if I had scrolled down from the haddock post that I was taken to I would have seen RR's vote. But I didn't. That is my fault. But that is because I was relying on the e-mail system to get me any posts. That has worked in the past, but in this situation it didn't.

So I don't think the PPE system failed, but instead the e-mail generation system that I use failed (at least for the purposes that I use it for... of which maybe I shouldn't use it for).

So I guess feel free to not believe that if you want. There isn't any way I can show you that is what happened because it is all off line and now deleted anyways... (and I wouldn't share my personal e-mail system with the forum anyways...). But I think this should show that there is a reason for what happened that has the narrative for me not being scum... where as the me being scum narrative is that I purposely hammered within the window of two minutes and made up a story about it when there more obvious choice as scum would have been to declare intent, wait for awaclus to be awaclus and then just hammer him. I guess there is a narrative that I could have mistakenly hammered as scum, but that isn't what you are saying anyways...
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Haddock

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1534 on: December 10, 2015, 10:01:01 am »

Huh.  On the other hand, I'm not so fond of his vote for Awaclus.  It was pretty heavily justified, which I often find to come from scum more than town.
I was pulling a complete 180 with regards to my read on him.  I figured that required some explanation.

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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1535 on: December 10, 2015, 10:02:11 am »

Huh.  On the other hand, I'm not so fond of his vote for Awaclus.  It was pretty heavily justified, which I often find to come from scum more than town.
I was pulling a complete 180 with regards to my read on him.  I figured that required some explanation.

Yeah that doesn't really make it townier.
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Haddock

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1536 on: December 10, 2015, 10:04:14 am »

Huh.  On the other hand, I'm not so fond of his vote for Awaclus.  It was pretty heavily justified, which I often find to come from scum more than town.
I was pulling a complete 180 with regards to my read on him.  I figured that required some explanation.

Yeah that doesn't really make it townier.
Meh.  You've been in games with me before, as scum and town.  You should know that I tend to overindulge on explanation as both alignments.  You should also know that I'm quite unlikely to pull total 180s, I'd hardly be drawing attention to myself like that as scum.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

2.71828.....

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1537 on: December 10, 2015, 11:42:27 am »

Making a case out of the PPE thing is scummy.  It happens exactly like yuma described.  You read stuff, you refresh the thread (in some way) without realizing more posts exist, then you post.  Those posts that you didn't see won't show up for PPE.

Anyway, I am kind of brain dead right now.  I will put some stuff down later this weekend.  It is a pity yuma didn't shoot, but oh well.  I still think he is town.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1538 on: December 10, 2015, 12:03:20 pm »

First of all Amapharos, why should we think you are town?

You seemed scummier day one, you've toned it down today.
But on Day One, when people started suspecting you, you seemed scummy in your defense.
Especially the 'fun' one. Town would've said why they didn't panic so much, but you pretended that the potential lynch was a joke.

There's not a great case, and I make it sound worse, but I think voting for you is the best use of my vote as of now.
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Ampharos

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1539 on: December 10, 2015, 12:21:18 pm »

First of all Amapharos, why should we think you are town?

You seemed scummier day one, you've toned it down today.
But on Day One, when people started suspecting you, you seemed scummy in your defense.
Especially the 'fun' one. Town would've said why they didn't panic so much, but you pretended that the potential lynch was a joke.

There's not a great case, and I make it sound worse, but I think voting for you is the best use of my vote as of now.

I can’t make you think I’m town or not.  What I can do is play my game, and let you draw your own conclusions from there.  I know I’m “supposed to clear myself” with towny play, but it’s all so full of WIFOM and misinterpretation that I’m just going to do the best I can for town, and call it a day. 

I think the reason I’m “toned down today” is because I’m not posting as much, I’m not in the spotlight, and because more people are becoming convinced I’m town, which is correct. 

I don’t panic about lynches because I quickly burnt that out of my system.  Newer players tend to freak out about getting lynched; I just say why you shouldn’t and then leave it at that.   If people don’t believe me, they aren’t going to believe me.  Debating and freaking out isn’t going to change their mind. 

I’m actually okay with you voting me here - I think if I was observing myself without knowing my role, I’d probably be somewhat suspicious of myself.  I need something to keep me honest and prevent me from getting lazy like I might do if I’m cleared as town.

——————

Now, question for you if you’ll indulge me. 

What do you think about faust’s play?  As Teproc and I have previously mentioned, his wagons are picking up very very little steam.  Is he scum?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1540 on: December 10, 2015, 12:25:58 pm »

No, he's town. I said why, but I can say again if you need me to.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1541 on: December 10, 2015, 12:32:21 pm »

Ampharos' constant and neverending insistence on lynching Faust does not make me like the Faust wagon.

Question for Ampharos:

What do you think about players who are not named Faust?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Ampharos

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1542 on: December 10, 2015, 12:43:32 pm »

No, he's town. I said why, but I can say again if you need me to.

I went back and read it, and I you know, I initially had him marked on my spreadsheet as town for that reason.  Emotional outbursts tend to be town indicators. 

However. 

faust knows that, I'm sure.  He could have faked it for town cred, or, and more likely in my opinion, he was being serious about being frustrated and was venting, regardless of his alignment.  It was more an "attack" on his meta play, and that's annoying regardless of your role.

All things said:
1. faust is smart enough to have faked that, or could be legit upset because it was an attack on meta.  Either of these being true is enough for me to not give town cred for that.
2. Something has felt off all game about faust.  I've only played in one game with him, but it was where he was a mafia who didn't know his other members.  It was the ultimate puzzle to figure out, and he seemed really excited and engaged to solve it.  To me, that seems like someone who would be excited about being town, going full bloodhound mode, hunting down the baddies.  I get being like that, because I am often like that.  So that begs the question, why isn't faust like that this game?  He looks like town if you just glance over what he's saying, but a lot of it seems to me to be more distractionary points than ones that are legit cases/pursuit of baddies.  To me, it doesn't line up from the faust I know.
3. Why hasn't this wagon taken off?  It's not like other wagons, where there are lots of people saying "oh I'm not voting for him because x,y,z".  People just aren't saying anything other than off-hand "oh he just seems town", if we even get that.
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Ampharos

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1543 on: December 10, 2015, 12:46:08 pm »

Ampharos' constant and neverending insistence on lynching Faust does not make me like the Faust wagon.

Question for Ampharos:

What do you think about players who are not named Faust?

Yeah, I get that, but this is what I do, especially after a largely fruitless Day 1 that lasted as long as it did.  As I previously said, I got talked off all my soapboxes and out of all my votes (thus me not even voting at the end of the day), because the day was so long and people had so much time to try to change my mind.  And it worked.

Let me write up another list for you.  Coming soon.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1544 on: December 10, 2015, 12:46:22 pm »

I’m actually okay with you voting me here - I think if I was observing myself without knowing my role, I’d probably be somewhat suspicious of myself.  I need something to keep me honest and prevent me from getting lazy like I might do if I’m cleared as town.

So you think that your play is scummy, why do you then play that way?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1545 on: December 10, 2015, 12:47:05 pm »

Scum can easily get frustrated.  It doesn't have to be a fabrication.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1546 on: December 10, 2015, 12:47:37 pm »

I'm townish on Ampharos now.
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1547 on: December 10, 2015, 12:48:21 pm »

Scum can easily get frustrated.  It doesn't have to be a fabrication.

This. Can be extended to all emotional responses. People don't stop being human because they rolled scum.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1548 on: December 10, 2015, 12:48:25 pm »

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Ampharos

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1549 on: December 10, 2015, 12:48:56 pm »

Ampharos' constant and neverending insistence on lynching Faust does not make me like the Faust wagon.

Question for Ampharos:

What do you think about players who are not named Faust?

Yeah, I get that, but this is what I do, especially after a largely fruitless Day 1 that lasted as long as it did.  As I previously said, I got talked off all my soapboxes and out of all my votes (thus me not even voting at the end of the day), because the day was so long and people had so much time to try to change my mind.  And it worked.

Let me write up another list for you.  Coming soon.

Eh, screw that.  I'm at work. 

You have any 1 or 2 players specifically you want me to look at in depth?  I don't want to do a half-behinded (lel I just made that up and think it is funny) "oh um yeah they're um town" type thing about everyone, and don't have time to in depth everyone right now. 

You pick, I'll let you know.
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