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[gkrieg13]

So he also only votes for Seprix D2, hasn't voted today and really only voted three times D1, twice on confirmed townies, once on iguana and then on Jimmm for self-preservation.

[gkrieg13]

Also Awaclus for all the talk that you've had about having amazing reads and for being so great at this game, you tunneled town both days.

[Awaclus]

Where he says that faust is town before he has flipped.  I think this might actually be a scumslip.  He really did reveal more information than he should've had.

That was sarcasm. Remember, the context was that faust was accusing me of being a bad town player.

Also Awaclus for all the talk that you've had about having amazing reads and for being so great at this game, you tunneled town both days.

Tunneling Seprix was the only correct town play yesterday. It could not possibly have been assumed that there was any slight chance of him being town.

[ced]

Er... I mean, it only matches up with me wanting to vote gkrieg. The comment doesn't make sense with the seprix vote.

Here is what happened. Seprix was towny. I always thought that he was towny. Then we lynched him, and he claimed scum. You don't do that as town. It's obnoxious. So I thought he was scum, hence I was wrong.

You didn't post after his scumclaim, though?

Awaclus has made one post in our QT.

It was a reply to my question 'are you even here?' He answered in some variation of 'affirmative.' He hasn't said anything since.
Vote: Awaclus

He said nothing in our QT either, but I'm not sure I expected him to.

So now you're sure Joseph is town?

Yeah. I don't think scum does something like this. And it seems like Joseph, you know? Weak case but people get behind it cause hey! free RR lynch.

What has Joseph done that you don't think scum would do?

You are very wrong on that front.  You always stay more in the background when you are scum and you don't rub people the wrong way as much.  This is why you get lynched more as town than you do as scum

I don't know, I felt he was pretty abrasive on day one.

...

I don't like how Gkrieg's Awaclus case came to be, really. He started the day going for Awaclus as an RR scumbuddy, now he's directly voting Awaclus. Feels a lot like scum getting ahead of themselves on setting up mislynches. Plus, this matches his apparent MO from yesterday too - where he wanted to lynch Seprix and RR (and Joseph!).
Then there's his Awaclus case. The "scumslip" post is obvious sarcasm (even out of context, really). I'm not sure how gkrieg read it otherwise.

Vote: gkrieg13

Silver makes most sense as his buddy here - mostly because RR/Awa/Joseph really don't make sense, and Silver's certainly scummier than Iguana. They're paired too, aren't they?

[ced]

Other gkrieg stuff.

I don't really want to lynch Awaclus.  He seems townie here.  I'm not sure I'll actually get to a ced reread tonight.  I will try to do it in the next hour, but I might not be completely free.

Gkrieg said he thought Awaclus was town on day one. Sure, opinions can change, but gkrieg's case is a meta case. Why'd you think Awaclus was townie?

In the pregame I considered the applications of accountability for partner requests - e.g. claiming all requests at the start of the following day, or simply when run up to L-2 or whatever. It seems likely that the scum would have interest in manipulating the partnerships, and having an after-the-fact request claim doesn't seem like it'd hurt.

This post is actually a good idea.  It wouldn't hurt to say who we plan on requesting before the day is over.

I did not like this post first time around, and still don't. I suggested an after-the-fact claim and gkrieg suggests we do before-the-fact, but the way he frames it suggests that I asked for a before-the-fact claim. I almost voted for him on this when he originally posted it, but the one thing giving me pause is that there isn't an obvious gamebreaking element of the scum knowing pairs the night before that I could think of. Still, you'd think they'd like to know.

But also: gkrieg said some scummy stuff in our QT last night. The main thing is that he asked who I was requesting, which I found odd, but he also said something that I wouldn't exactly call a scumslip but seemed to imply he was speaking from a scum perspective. It's enough to make me want to vote: gkrieg

This is a follow-up to the pairs claim thing. ADK (confirmed town) reports on gkrieg's N1 words. Gkrieg apparently stuck to his guns on this request claim. Not sure he'd shown much suspicion of ADK the day before, though - so why ask him in particular? Really smells of fishing for info.
The "not quite a scumslip" thing is too hard to call without seeing the exact wording, which we unfortunately cannot get.

I'm fine with a Seprix, RR, or Joseph lynch at this point.  Would rather lynch Joseph, but Seprix would make me very happy as well.

I think we should go for Seprix/RR/Joseph, with RR>Seprix>Joseph, but those > signs are pretty small in my opinion.  I would be fine with lynching any of the three of them.

These are a couple of posts with the Seprix/RR/Joseph thing.

So gkreig is scum, pretty much confirmed now. He's been inconsistent, and hopping on wagons while looking indecisive so he won't be under the watchful eye of town when I do flip. In addition, gkreig has submitted very little in terms of actual content, mainly agreeing with people in wordy ways.

well I have been agreeing with certain people when they make sense.  I have been very decisive.  I said that I wanted to lynch RR, then you, then Joseph.  I think after your little interaction with Awaclus, that you are more likely to be scum than RR right now, so I voted for you.  With you voting for me, it doesn't matter all that much where my vote goes because it won't be a vote that counts anyway.

I haven't really gone from wagon to wagon.  I have voted for three different people today, all of which have been especially scummy.  Obviously I also think that we should lynch one of RR/Joseph as well today because there is some reason why scum didn't kill them last night.  I guess they are both easy mislynches, so it might be a good enough reason to keep them alive, but I really think that you go for the double kill as scum there.

You had a scummy end of day D1, and you are having a scummy end of day D2.

Gkrieg justifying his multiple lynches thing. I'd say that wanting to lynch three different people is the opposite of decisive, especially when that is a greater number than the remaining scum in the first place, but meh.
Interesting that he refers to RR/Joseph as "easy mislynches" yet still advocates killing them both. Perhaps it's just caution, but maybe it's a case of how he sees them (as mislynches).

[silverspawn]

if you claim that your incorrect tunnels were really correct play, then sure you will be an amazing town player. You can't go wrong anymore.

Seprix' play was towny, and tunneling him was either scum play or incorrect town play

vote: Awaclus

You can't see it but it is bolded 5 times!

[Awaclus]

if you claim that your incorrect tunnels were really correct play, then sure you will be an amazing town player. You can't go wrong anymore.

Seprix' play was towny, and tunneling him was either scum play or incorrect town play

vote: Awaclus

You can't see it but it is bolded 5 times!

Man, this is just basic strategy, applicable to any game with any strategy involved.

1) Town needs to play perfectly (given the information available to them). If that isn't the case, a scum team who's playing perfectly (given the information available to them) will always win the game on average if the setup is balanced. Scum might not always play perfectly, but that is beyond town's control so it's crappy play to count on it, just like it would be crappy play in Prismata to not build a Wall to protect your Vivid Drones in hopes of having your opponent be a retard and kill your regular Drones instead.

2) When you don't know whether or not you're in a winning or losing position, you should play as though you were in the winning position. This is because you are more likely to win in the winning position already, and making your plays as though that scenario was true keeps you in the winning position. If you were in the losing position and you made the wrong plays — no biggie, you were in the losing position anyway and it doesn't matter whether you lose a little or a lot. If you're counting on being in the losing position, that will backfire, because either you actually are in the losing position, in which case you're still in the losing position after you've made the correct plays, or you are actually in the winning position, in which case you might now be in the losing position instead because you made the wrong plays.

3) From 1 and 2, we can conclude that it needs to be assumed that town plays perfectly, because if someone is making a play which is not perfect for town, either it's town making that play in which case town is in a losing position, or it's scum making that play in which case town is in a winning position. Therefore, we should assume the winning position, i.e. the person making that play is scum, because making that assumption is incredibly advantageous for town whenever it's true (which should be every time, because as we concluded earlier, town needs to play perfectly all the time).

And it's a given that fakeclaiming to protect someone who was objectively as null as anyone can ever be due to his lack of posting, when you don't have any PR results or anything on him, is anything but perfect town play.

So yeah. I, as well as all the other townies who advocated for Seprix's lynch (other than Seprix himself because unlike everyone else, he wasn't lacking the information that he was town) were absolutely making the correct play for town. Unfortunately, it was also the correct play for scum to do so, so there is no way to differentiate between people on and off wagon. This is also part of why town needs to play perfectly, to avoid the kind of situation in which both factions will want to make the same play.

[Awaclus]

Also I can see that it's bolded 5 times when I quote it.

[silverspawn]

Town needs to play perfectly (given the information available to them).

Wrong. Completely and utterly wrong. Town does not need to play perfectly, town has never played perfectly, and even using the term as if it's something that could ever actually happen is absurd. There are about, what, 2^32 symbols that are allowed in this forum? So that's 2^32 possibilities per letter, and this game has... a hundred thousand letters posted total, maybe? So 2^3200000 possible ways it could be played? That is a 1 with about 700000 zeroes. And town needs to play perfectly, as in choose that one possibility that maximizes their chances? Uh-huh.

If that isn't the case, a scum team who's playing perfectly (given the information available to them) will always win the game on average if the setup is balanced.

Or, in other words: If that thing that has never happened and will never happen in the history of humanity is the case then if another thing that has never happened and will never happen in the history of humanity is the case, scum will win the game on average.

Scum might not always play perfectly, but that is beyond town's control so it's crappy play to count on it, just like it would be crappy play in Prismata to not build a Wall to protect your Vivid Drones in hopes of having your opponent be a retard and kill your regular Drones instead.

No, that is not remotely alike. Your opponent is very likely to breach your vivid drones, maybe 98%. Scum is not very likely to play perfectly, about 0% (rounded to two billion digits).

2) When you don't know whether or not you're in a winning or losing position, you should play as though you were in the winning position.

Wrong.

This is because you are more likely to win in the winning position already, and making your plays as though that scenario was true keeps you in the winning position. If you were in the losing position and you made the wrong plays — no biggie, you were in the losing position anyway and it doesn't matter whether you lose a little or a lot. If you're counting on being in the losing position, that will backfire, because either you actually are in the losing position, in which case you're still in the losing position after you've made the correct plays, or you are actually in the winning position, in which case you might now be in the losing position instead because you made the wrong plays.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability

[Awaclus]

And town needs to play perfectly, as in choose that one possibility that maximizes their chances? Uh-huh.

Yeah, because every character you type contributes towards your chances of winning or losing in a very significant way.

Except that it doesn't. There are limitless ways to word what you want to say, but there aren't that many things that you could possibly want to say that are relevant to the game. Most of those things, even, make essentially no difference at all. Basically the only things that matter is what information you can acquire, how much of it you choose to make publicly available, and who you're voting for, unless you're a PR in which case there are PR things to consider as well.

If that isn't the case, a scum team who's playing perfectly (given the information available to them) will always win the game on average if the setup is balanced.

Or, in other words: If that thing that has never happened and will never happen in the history of humanity is the case then if another thing that has never happened and will never happen in the history of humanity is the case, scum will win the game on average.

No. People play perfectly all the time.

Scum might not always play perfectly, but that is beyond town's control so it's crappy play to count on it, just like it would be crappy play in Prismata to not build a Wall to protect your Vivid Drones in hopes of having your opponent be a retard and kill your regular Drones instead.

No, that is not remotely alike. Your opponent is very likely to breach your vivid drones, maybe 98%. Scum is not very likely to play perfectly, about 0% (rounded to two billion digits).

It is exactly alike. Fakeclaiming to protect someone who's not confirmed town to you is about as big of a mistake as not breaching Vivid Drones when you can (not in how much they affect your chances of winning, but in how obvious it is that they do affect it negatively).

2) When you don't know whether or not you're in a winning or losing position, you should play as though you were in the winning position.

Wrong.

Wrong.

This is because you are more likely to win in the winning position already, and making your plays as though that scenario was true keeps you in the winning position. If you were in the losing position and you made the wrong plays — no biggie, you were in the losing position anyway and it doesn't matter whether you lose a little or a lot. If you're counting on being in the losing position, that will backfire, because either you actually are in the losing position, in which case you're still in the losing position after you've made the correct plays, or you are actually in the winning position, in which case you might now be in the losing position instead because you made the wrong plays.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability

It doesn't neglect the probability. If the probability that something good enough happens to put you in a winning position is 80%, then you already know that you're in a winning position because you're that much more likely to win the game. I, however, don't remember how I thought that this particular manifestation of the concept that damage control is super bad in all kinds of games and that you should never do it was relevant here, but either way, damage control is super bad in all kinds of games and you should never do it.

[silverspawn]

Out of all the things that could be written in a 20 page post, I am convinced that one exists which would immediately cause both scum to reveal their identities. Everything lesser than that is inferior and therefore imperfect. I can't believe we're having this conversation.

vote: Awaclus

[silverspawn]

That is not true, I do believe it.

[EFHW]

Vote Count 3.2

Roadrunner (0): Joseph
Awaclus (2): gkrieg, silverspawn
gkrieg (0): ced

Not voting (3): Awaclus, iguana, Roadrunner

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to majority lynch
Day ends Friday, July 1st at 5 p.m.

[Awaclus]

Out of all the things that could be written in a 20 page post, I am convinced that one exists which would immediately cause both scum to reveal their identities.

No way there is a 20-page post anyone could write that would make scum think that it would increase their odds to win the game to reveal their identities.

[silverspawn]

Out of all the things that could be written in a 20 page post, I am convinced that one exists which would immediately cause both scum to reveal their identities.

No way there is a 20-page post anyone could write that would make scum think that it would increase their odds to win the game to reveal their identities.

who cares about the game. You could touch on childhood traumas they had and influence them in ways that completely blow the importance of the game out of proportion, and somehow add it in there that revealing their identities will help in some way.

Or on a more practical note, have you conducted extensive research on every other player? Have you every waking moment since the start of the game trying to figure out their scum traits? No? Oh, then it appears you're not playing perfectly. I'm sorry. You should have also been way more active and not play in a way that antagonizes people. Very non-perfect play... I won't even say bad town play, because I'm desperately hoping that it is not town play at all.

[silverspawn]

Although I wouldn't be surprised if there doesn't also exist a 20 page post that makes them believe it's beneficial to reveal their identity even within the game... or makes them believe anything, for that matter. It could be the product of 1000 years of research on how to make people believe things. I would assume there probably exists a post to make most people do absolutely anything.

[ced]

No way there is a 20-page post anyone could write that would make scum think that it would increase their odds to win the game to reveal their identities.

Well, this site's mafia rules bizarrely don't seem to mention/ban out-of-game incentives & threats, so such a post would exist (providing you're ok being banned from the site afterwards).

Regardless, this back-and-forth is pretty stupid. Let's get back to gkrieg, guys.

[silverspawn]

but I want to lynch Awaclus.

[silverspawn]

Think about it. Let's say, worst case, Awaclus is town.

We don't lynch him now.

Do you really want to have him around at LyLo? I could be frustrated at what that would mean already.

And probable case: he's scum. We lynch him. Great. Tomorrow and the day afterwards we can then find the last one. Who is actually a normal player that can be read in normal ways.

[gkrieg13]

Er... I mean, it only matches up with me wanting to vote gkrieg. The comment doesn't make sense with the seprix vote.

Here is what happened. Seprix was towny. I always thought that he was towny. Then we lynched him, and he claimed scum. You don't do that as town. It's obnoxious. So I thought he was scum, hence I was wrong.

You didn't post after his scumclaim, though?

Awaclus has made one post in our QT.

It was a reply to my question 'are you even here?' He answered in some variation of 'affirmative.' He hasn't said anything since.
Vote: Awaclus

He said nothing in our QT either, but I'm not sure I expected him to.

So now you're sure Joseph is town?

Yeah. I don't think scum does something like this. And it seems like Joseph, you know? Weak case but people get behind it cause hey! free RR lynch.

What has Joseph done that you don't think scum would do?

You are very wrong on that front.  You always stay more in the background when you are scum and you don't rub people the wrong way as much.  This is why you get lynched more as town than you do as scum

I don't know, I felt he was pretty abrasive on day one.

...

I don't like how Gkrieg's Awaclus case came to be, really. He started the day going for Awaclus as an RR scumbuddy, now he's directly voting Awaclus. Feels a lot like scum getting ahead of themselves on setting up mislynches. Plus, this matches his apparent MO from yesterday too - where he wanted to lynch Seprix and RR (and Joseph!).
Then there's his Awaclus case. The "scumslip" post is obvious sarcasm (even out of context, really). I'm not sure how gkrieg read it otherwise.

Vote: gkrieg13

Silver makes most sense as his buddy here - mostly because RR/Awa/Joseph really don't make sense, and Silver's certainly scummier than Iguana. They're paired too, aren't they?

[Awaclus]

who cares about the game. You could touch on childhood traumas they had and influence them in ways that completely blow the importance of the game out of proportion, and somehow add it in there that revealing their identities will help in some way.

I would assume that everyone who signs up for the game cares about the game until they /out. That would be awful play from the scum team.

Or on a more practical note, have you conducted extensive research on every other player? Have you every waking moment since the start of the game trying to figure out their scum traits? No? Oh, then it appears you're not playing perfectly. I'm sorry. You should have also been way more active and not play in a way that antagonizes people. Very non-perfect play... I won't even say bad town play, because I'm desperately hoping that it is not town play at all.

"Scum traits" are pseudo-strategy based on the delusion that people can "read" other individual people based on nothing more but the way those people act and tell when they're lying. The truth of the situation, however, is that people are extremely good at pretending and extremely bad at telling when another person is pretending to the point where it's essentially just full random, so we need to forget about that stuff and focus on something more objective — i.e. when their words and actions contradict their town narrative.

How active do you think I have been?

Although I wouldn't be surprised if there doesn't also exist a 20 page post that makes them believe it's beneficial to reveal their identity even within the game... or makes them believe anything, for that matter. It could be the product of 1000 years of research on how to make people believe things. I would assume there probably exists a post to make most people do absolutely anything.

Wenn ist das Nunstück git und Slotermeyer? Ja! Beiherhund das Oder die Flipperwaldt gersput!

(disclaimer: that was a Monty Python reference, not cryptography)

[silverspawn]

Missed this post:

Er... I mean, it only matches up with me wanting to vote gkrieg. The comment doesn't make sense with the seprix vote.

Here is what happened. Seprix was towny. I always thought that he was towny. Then we lynched him, and he claimed scum. You don't do that as town. It's obnoxious. So I thought he was scum, hence I was wrong.

You didn't post after his scumclaim, though?

?? yes I did.

[gkrieg13]

Er... I mean, it only matches up with me wanting to vote gkrieg. The comment doesn't make sense with the seprix vote.

Here is what happened. Seprix was towny. I always thought that he was towny. Then we lynched him, and he claimed scum. You don't do that as town. It's obnoxious. So I thought he was scum, hence I was wrong.

You didn't post after his scumclaim, though?

Awaclus has made one post in our QT.

It was a reply to my question 'are you even here?' He answered in some variation of 'affirmative.' He hasn't said anything since.
Vote: Awaclus

He said nothing in our QT either, but I'm not sure I expected him to.

So now you're sure Joseph is town?

Yeah. I don't think scum does something like this. And it seems like Joseph, you know? Weak case but people get behind it cause hey! free RR lynch.

What has Joseph done that you don't think scum would do?

You are very wrong on that front.  You always stay more in the background when you are scum and you don't rub people the wrong way as much.  This is why you get lynched more as town than you do as scum

I don't know, I felt he was pretty abrasive on day one.

...

I don't like how Gkrieg's Awaclus case came to be, really. He started the day going for Awaclus as an RR scumbuddy, now he's directly voting Awaclus. Feels a lot like scum getting ahead of themselves on setting up mislynches. Plus, this matches his apparent MO from yesterday too - where he wanted to lynch Seprix and RR (and Joseph!).
Then there's his Awaclus case. The "scumslip" post is obvious sarcasm (even out of context, really). I'm not sure how gkrieg read it otherwise.

Vote: gkrieg13

Silver makes most sense as his buddy here - mostly because RR/Awa/Joseph really don't make sense, and Silver's certainly scummier than Iguana. They're paired too, aren't they?

Forgot to type my response to this post.

I have been trying to be more proactive, because people said that they didn't like that I was being mainly reactive.  Trying to make cases and get people to go along with them.  My reads haven't been good this game at all, but I'm trying to get it moving after a fairly stagnant D2.

Also for those who want to know what was in the QT, I said this-> "Who are you requesting?"

To which ADK said that he didn't want to tell me, because he thought it might benefit scum to know, although he wasn't sure exactly how.

I then said->"I'm pretty sure it can't benefit me at all. It just helps me to get a better read on you. It's interesting that you don't want to answer. I don't know exactly what that means either."

ADK thought it was a scumslip because I said that I'm pretty sure it can't benefit me at all, which I didn't really get as a scum slip.  I was really just asking a question to someone I thought was townie and then he got all defensive about his choice, when I really didn't think that the claiming provides any information to scum.  The only upside to knowing who someone else is going to request is that you can be sure of one of their scum reads.

[silverspawn]

"Scum traits" are pseudo-strategy based on the delusion that people can "read" other individual people based on nothing more but the way those people act and tell when they're lying. The truth of the situation, however, is that people are extremely good at pretending and extremely bad at telling when another person is pretending to the point where it's essentially just full random, so we need to forget about that stuff and focus on something more objective — i.e. when their words and actions contradict their town narrative.

In other words: You're refusing to even try to play the game.

[gkrieg13]

No way there is a 20-page post anyone could write that would make scum think that it would increase their odds to win the game to reveal their identities.

Well, this site's mafia rules bizarrely don't seem to mention/ban out-of-game incentives & threats, so such a post would exist (providing you're ok being banned from the site afterwards).

Regardless, this back-and-forth is pretty stupid. Let's get back to gkrieg, guys.

This is what Awaclus does when he is caught as mafia.  He doesn't have anything to go back on, because he knows he has been lying.  Look at Fanfiction Mafia if you don't believe me.  He had the most useless argument with Yuma when he was getting lots of pressure as scum.

Reading through that game, his D2 looks a lot like his D2 here. He tunnels someone, who ends up being the lynch.  Actually his D1 looks similar as well, he votes for 3 different people, and keeps his RVS vote for a while.

The only thing that looks different is that he doesn't claim that his tunneling of WW was the best thing to do at the time and that he is even townier for it.  If you look at D4 though, he has a similar argument as he has here.  He is talking about how townies should always try to prove their towniness.  He goes on about things that are related to theory and not directly to the game.

On the other hand, he also has some posts that are a lot more about stuff that is actually happening in the game, but most of them are "I think we should lynch from the VTs" kind of stuff instead of really trying to scum hunt.