Oh! Kooshie, to explain my thoughts further and why I was leaning mcmc/sudgy over mcmc/liopoil:
At this point in the game, I didn't think scum would want to risk losing the game just to try and acquire a flawless victory. Thus I thought that IF scum could bus with a hammer, they would've done so long before the day got dragged on and on. If the teams were mcmc/lio (or even Raerae/Sudgy, although I didn't believe that), then one scum would have the opportunity to flip to his partner and hammer (in this case liopoil moving to mcmc).
Because that didn't happen, my best conclusion was that scum were already split between the two wagons, and thus could not switch to hammer. This only works if the team is Sudgy/mcmc.
Now, I realized (as noted in the spec QT) that from town!Raerae's perspective, the teams could ONLY be mcmc/Sudgy or mcmc/lio. In either case Raerae knew with 100% certainty that mcmc was scum.
The flip side, of course, is that town!liopoil knows with 100% certainty that Sudgy is scum, since the teams can only be Sudgy/Raerae or Sudgy/mcmc - and because of this if he WERE to switch to hammer his scumbuddy it would not be in keeping with his town persona, since why would any town switch from 100% scum to 50%?
However, things weren't nearly so locked at the start of the day, and I just felt that scum!liopoil would've looked harder for ways to bus, rather than let himself get trapped into being tied with mcmc. As such, even if I had lynched mcmc in your shoes, I would've gone into the final day more suspicious of Sudgy than Liopoil (had I lived the night).