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[ashersky]

yep... ash, sudgy verified your note sending?

vote: xerxes

Sudgy can, don't think he has yet.  Waiting on him.

[yuma]

I don't know if ash's stance that the wording was ambiguous has any significance as I certainly read it as being the way that it was. Or rather I didn't see the ambiguity that he saw, but he is the English major... I am just a lowly journalism/medical technology major.

If Xerxes flips town then ADK and WW should send notes to sudgy (or someone else they think won't die),

If xerxes flips scum I think they should use their items for a more effective purpose as verification won't be needed.

[Witherweaver]

Wait. Xerxes can self hammer.  Let Sudgy claim N0 items first.

Then we can lynch Xerxes. 

[yuma]

I don't think we want sudgy to claim his actions at this point. There isn't a need I think.

[Witherweaver]

Yes for other scum.  Read my previous post.  We can PoE Arch item and figure out group liar must be in.

[yuma]

his items I mean... no one beside sudgy needs to know what item he received N0 right? we are missing three items. One from xerxes if he is in fact lying. one from sudgy and one from archetype. What purpose at this point does sudgy claiming his N0 actions help town?

[yuma]

ok, reading it

[Witherweaver]

Xerxes was likely truthful about not sending something.  So scum is in one of the claims.  We may be able to figure out what Xerxes and Arch had.  Xerxes probably has whatever he said that wasn't paper.

Even if not, it still narrows it down to two groups.

[yuma]

Anyway if Xerxes turns up scum and Sudgy and Yuma item claim (their N0 items ONLY), then we can probably deduce what Xerxes and Arch had.  That should let us narrow down where the other scum is.

I assume you mean this one?

I don't think we can... well maybe we can deduce a group that it should exclude, which might be worth it

Paper: Ash, WW, ADK, (Xerxes)
Badge: Jimmm, Xeiron, ?
Bandage: PPS, (yuma), ?
Magnifying Glass: Voltaire, Faust, ?

me and xerxes in parathensis as we didn't send those items

But... no... doesn't everything match up for what sudgy received? Why are you assuming that scum lied about what they had/sent aside from Xerxes?

For example ash could very easily be scum and still sent sudgy paper with a note. Nothing prevents that from being a possibility.

[Witherweaver]

Yes but Sudgy received 8 items with 9 claimed sent including aarch.  One claim must be scum.

[yuma]

Yes but Sudgy received 8 items with 9 claimed sent including aarch.  One claim must be scum.

Ah... arch's item. I gotcha. Wait...

I guess I was still under the impression that the ? meant he didn't receive anything from archetype

ash: Paper
WW: Paper
yuma: Nothing
Jim: Badge
PPS: Bandage
ADK: Paper
Voltaire: Magnifying Glass
faust: Magnifying Glass
xeiron: Badge
Xerxes: Nothing
Archetype: ?

I received all of these items, no more, no less.  Take from it what you will.

But if he did receive something then sudgy already knows what archetype sent to him and knows which group is lying. He just needs to tell us and doesn't need to actually claim what item he received N0 as the item he had and the item sent by arch are no for all intents and purposes equal, yes?

So he still needs to clarify and if arch did send an item can tell us where to PoE w/o giving up more information, although I guess at that point it doesn't matter as it is deduceable...

[Witherweaver]

Yes but Sudgy received 8 items with 9 claimed sent including aarch.  One claim must be scum.

Ah... arch's item. I gotcha. Wait...

I guess I was still under the impression that the ? meant he didn't receive anything from archetype

ash: Paper
WW: Paper
yuma: Nothing
Jim: Badge
PPS: Bandage
ADK: Paper
Voltaire: Magnifying Glass
faust: Magnifying Glass
xeiron: Badge
Xerxes: Nothing
Archetype: ?

I received all of these items, no more, no less.  Take from it what you will.

But if he did receive something then sudgy already knows what archetype sent to him and knows which group is lying. He just needs to tell us and doesn't need to actually claim what item he received N0 as the item he had and the item sent by arch are no for all intents and purposes equal, yes?

So he still needs to clarify and if arch did send an item can tell us where to PoE w/o giving up more information, although I guess at that point it doesn't matter as it is deduceable...

Sudgy doesn't know who sent him want, he only gets that he got an item, not who sent it.  Sudgy knows what he has, so he can figure out the two sets that Xerxes and Arch must have started with.  But if he tells us that it's the same as telling us what he originally had.

Look, each group of 4 items must have exactly 3 people in it.  We have all the information but Sudgy, Archetype, and Xerxes. Sudgy only has his information, not Arch's.  Sudgy releases his info we have 2 groups where the liar must be.  We can maybe figure out what Xerxes really had (my hunch is the non-Paper item claim was true), so we might be able to get it down to 1 group.

On the off-chance Sudgy dies tonight, we lose that information.  So we have it narrowed down to 3 (maybe 2) groups instead of 2 (maybe 1).

[yuma]

Alright, I am confused. but that is ok at this point. Just make sure not to reveal more information than necessary. You seem to have a better grasp than I do.

[ashersky]

We have 3 "missing" items in the starter kit list.  One has to be Sudgy.  So that leaves 2 items missing.  One could be Archetype, the other could be Xerxes's real thing.  Is that right?

Sudgy should know which item has too many people (other than paper) if there is one.

[Witherweaver]

We have 3 "missing" items in the starter kit list.  One has to be Sudgy.  So that leaves 2 items missing.  One could be Archetype, the other could be Xerxes's real thing.  Is that right?

Sudgy should know which item has too many people (other than paper) if there is one.

Yes that's right.  But Sudgy can share that information, and I think he should, in case he somehow gets offed tonight.

So my point was, if Xerxes is scum he probably knows he's cornered, so he might self hammer, so unvote for now.

[ashersky]

Paper: Ash, WW, ADK, (Xerxes)
Badge: Jimmm, Xeiron, ?
Bandage: PPS, (yuma), ?
Magnifying Glass: Voltaire, Faust, ?

To make this easier to read.  We have two sets of data: what we all started the game with and what we all claimed to have sent.  One is as complete as possible, one is incomplete.  The two data sets are above, with ( ) meaning not sent.

So we know that the Paper liar (Xerxes), sudgy, and Archetype are the three question marks.  Sudgy knows which question mark is him.  We don't know which question mark is Xerxes and which is Arch.

But, if Xerxes is the only lying scum (definitely possible), then knowing which item sudgy has doesn't help us do anything at all.

What everyone knows now is sudgy has a shit ton of items, and what they are.

tldr; I think there's not much more to be deduced from item information that I can see.

[ashersky]

Xerxes is 100% caught, right?

Sudgy confirmed receiving three papers, we have three paper senders claimed, and then we have Xerxes claiming to have NOT sent paper.  But it's impossible for him to have paper and not send it and for sudgy to receive three papers, since there were only three papers to begin with.  So Xerxes is absolutely lying, unless one of the other three lied and Xerxes lied and actually did sent it, but that makes zero sense.

So Xerxes is 100% caught in a fake claim.

Okay.

As for "get more info before Xerxes selfhammers" I don't agree.  We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

[Witherweaver]

No no, Xerxes isn't the only lying scum.  Sudgy received 8 items.  8 people claimed they sent one, but so did Archetype.  Xerxes claimed to send nothing.  So there must be another scum that claimed to send items.  This is in addition to Xerxes.  If we fill out the table we can figure out what group that liar is in, and figure out what set of 3 the other scum is.

[Witherweaver]

What are you talking about?  If Xerxes is scum, the others for sure know what items he actually had already. 

[ashersky]

No no, Xerxes isn't the only lying scum.  Sudgy received 8 items.  8 people claimed they sent one, but so did Archetype.  Xerxes claimed to send nothing.  So there must be another scum that claimed to send items.  This is in addition to Xerxes.  If we fill out the table we can figure out what group that liar is in, and figure out what set of 3 the other scum is.

But we don't KNOW that arch sent an item, we assume it.

Here, hypothetical for you.  Sudgy's starting item was Badge, for example.  Now we know...what?  That we have exactly three claimed Badges, and sudgy received two, so they're not lying.  We also know that Xerxes had Bandage or Mag, and that Arch had Bandage or Mag.  Scum knows which is which.

How do we use that new information to find the lying scum?  Maybe it works but I'm missing it.  Like, what if PPS is the other scum, didn't send anything, but guessed correctly on Arch's bandage?  We can't know that or catch him based on new info from sudgy.  Same for Voltaire.

I think you think that we'll know the lying scum is within a subset of 5 players that are in the two item categories that sudgy is NOT in.  But in actuality, the liar could be anyone, if they got lucky with whatever Arch's item was.

[ashersky]

What are you talking about?  If Xerxes is scum, the others for sure know what items he actually had already.

But the other scum DO NOT know what SUDGY or ARCHETYPE had.  I mean, they might think they know what Arch had due to their fake claim working, but they're not sure.

[Witherweaver]

Yes, but look.  Take your example.  We can deduce that scum must lie in either {Bandage set, Mag set}.

We cut down the field by half.

I'm saying the liar is in whatever set has Arch in it.

[ashersky]

As for 8/8 items received/sent, the possibilities are:

--Arch didn't send an item
--Scum lied and claims Arch's item

I believe those are the two scenarios.  Knowing sudgy's item doesn't tell us Arch's, so it doesn't tell us who lied and got credit for his send.

[Witherweaver]

Well, or if one set ends up being four.  Either way, we have a much smaller set to look.

[ashersky]

Yes, but look.  Take your example.  We can deduce that scum must lie in either {Bandage set, Mag set}.

We cut down the field by half.

I'm saying the liar is in whatever set has Arch in it.

We're saying the same thing.  Except how will we know what set Arch was in?  We won't.

There's also the small chance he just didn't send anything.