This was intended to be short. It's not.
First, I think I know where I went wrong with my calculations - I assumed the chance of flipping a 2,3, or 4 were all the same; pretty sure that is not the case, 4 is more likely than 2 at this point (to prove this, if Dylan was a PR and there were 2 dead PR's now, it would be far more likely that there were more PRs left than they were all dead).
@DatSwan What I was said was unfair and overly snappy, reading back. I blame external stimuli. But: I like elimination, as you well know, and 1/4 isn't very useful. True, there could be more scum there, but you also left faust and Andrew off your minilist (although more on that in a second). The other problem is: if Andrew is town, then by your logic, there's probably a scum in the 5 that voted him. And two of them are Dylan and yourself. So if you trust Andrew is town (and heck, maybe even if you don't), there's a pool of 3 that probably has a scum. So why not do that?
@Space It''s not about knowing metas, it's about how my writing style shares no commonalities whatsoever with Raptor's (unless that is what a meta is). Yes, you don't know us, but nobody mixed up in our first game like you did (granted, I was probably posting more and he was posting less, but still!) To lump me in with the twins seems like a very convenient way of making the classic scum move "here are 4 potential scum. 1 of them actually is scum so that when they're caught, I don't look so bad!"
Since I have been very tentative to give towncred this game, I'll dip two toes into the water here.
1. DatSwan: I will reveal some of my hesitancy with him, but not all - I felt coming into this game that the longer the game went on, the more likely he would be scum until he proves otherwise. In regards to his D2 opening post, it seemed scummy to theorize about roleblocking a jail keeper that was killed, but the rest of that post reminds me of a lot of his 105 lategame stuff - lots of theorizing, most of which is probably not very helpful or necessary to know
, but still putting ideas out there. Based off my grand total of 1 game with him, my gut tells me I can read him pretty well, and right now, my guts telling me my guts say he's town. Not going all in yet, but I'll go like halfway.
2. Andrew: Whaaaat? Didn't Skumpy vote him? Yes! I did! But his recent semantics and scum hunting overall have been a lot more familiar. This don't seem like an act to get him off the chopping block today. He managed to pick up 5 votes yesterday, and nobody (besides yours truly) flipped from him. Doesn't mean there wasn't bussing, but it is a point in favor of two town wagons. And if Awaclus was arguing with me, "TAGGING OUT" is exactly what I'm doing as town - scum might be more anxious to get the heat off them.
Everybody else:
LaLight: Have I mentioned big wagons scare me? This one does. He has not been townying it up this game, but again, I don't seem to recall anybody defending him (especially the dead dudes), that's a troubling fact. No way I can L-2 this with 5 days left.
Space: More comfortable L-3ing this. I like discussing probabilities and improving my putrid mathing skills, but it really is an incredibly empty 38 posts. Lalight and Andrew on already? I could see a bus (I know I said Andrew was town earlier, but when someone agrees with an idea of mine, that always concerns me). I'm tempted to vote here to see what happens, but I won't (there was a vote here, but it has since been edited out).
Awaclus: Pass. Not that I'm against a lynch, it gets a wildcard out of the way.
IDPTG: Like, I just forget you're there. There's something about your profile-picless-posting that makes me think you're town, then I read the content and I think "Welp...who knows? He does!"
gkrieg: The longer you're gone, the more I look elsewhere at active players for scum. Which is why I'm starting to look back at you. Your read lists do strike me on the townier side, certainly enough to get you out of the top 3 pool.
faust: Soooo many townreads on you. And I kinda feel like there's a lot of your posting that suggests you are town, this isn't stuff you can say with such a townie accent if you're scum. But I thought you were a really bad scum player once, which was a theory that ended up getting busted hard. I'm not going to make the same mistake in the other direction....yet. And I still haven't moved from null for you. That's curious too.
Raptor: I liked Swan's defense when he said it. But now, I keep coming back to "This is the same as 105". I'm now remembering why you lasted so long, because nobody can be sure with you. And there's still my (probably incorrect) Raptor/Space theory still out there, awaiting a good counter.
2.7: How are you still under the radar?!?! I ended D1 intending to get back to voting for you ASAP....then I just didn't, and let others slip ahead of you. I believe not all scum has eluded notice, but I believe some definitely has. You could very well be a part of that latter category.
So leaning now towards....Raptor/Space/2.7? This post was stream-of-conscioused, please don't hold me to this if I'm wrong, but please give me a lot of credit if I'm at least 2/3 right.
Vote: XX Still haven't had a chance to comb D1 and pay attention to all the interactions, I'm operating off of memory and so-far impressions of D2. I reserve the rights to reverse all reads (I found an anagram!!)