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[schadd]

prods sent to awaclus and mcmcsalot

[mcmcsalot]

okay I promise I will catch up in the morning. In the meantime can someone give or point me to the case on roadrunner.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

OK:

I am doing a full reread, cause I am just sick in bed with nothing else to do. Just starting from the beginning and thinking things through.

Nothing much to notice early until the Joseph wagon starts up:

First vote count has these people on Joseph:

Awaclus, The_Wine_Merchant, McGarnacle, mcmcsalot, JaketheBaseballGod22

Once he gets to the point of claiming the voters look like this:

Awaclus, mcmcsalot, JaketheBaseballGod22, Robz888, TWM, faust

Then we get into the Robz wagon:

faust, The_Wine_Merchant, EFHW, gkrieg13, Awaclus, JaketheBaseballGod22

After his wagon loses steam (temporarily) gkrieg, mcmc and EFHW start to pick up, but don't get a lot of votes until Awaclus:

Joseph2302, JaketheBaseballGod22, Robz888, Calamitas, gkrieg

Here Awaclus claims and the wagon dissipates and starts up again on Robz. Something interesting to look at here is that if my result on gkrieg is accurate then only townies were voting for Awaclus at this time. Ashersky immediately gets the ball rolling back toward Robz (I think there were already people voting for Robz at this time. Oh actually it was just me) and gkrieg joins as well with the final Robz vote being:

The_Wine_Merchant, ashersky, gkrieg13, Awaclus, EFHW, Calamitas, faust

So, maybe this is faulty reasoning, but this does make me suspect Awaclus a little bit more as his wagon was really quick in forming and was made up of very hindsight townie players, so perhaps less likely to have scum partners voting, as they might want to sit back and consider their options. And if he is suspect that makes me slightly suspect ashersky as well. But I think we would want to see an Awaclus flip scum before making that judgement call.

It is also worth noting that if setup the hypothesis that Awaclus is town then all the major Day1 wagons were on town players: Joseph, Robz, Awaclus. How often do all major wagons Day1 focus only on town players? Gkrieg was the only other mid-major wagon, and my result also point him toward being town (this is what I was trying to bring up awkwardly yesterday).

Day is really a giant big mess and that is partially my fault.

Lowlights are obviously the Jake/RR wagon. I think I agree with gkrieg's conclusion about RR needing to be mafia based off how the day ended.

faust (1): ashersky
JaketheBaseballGod22 (6): Awaclus, Roadrunner7671, The_Wine_Merchant, EFHW, mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
EFHW (1): gkrieg13
Roadrunner7671 (2): faust, JaketheBaseballGod22.

If RR is town then from my perspective (unless gkrieg is the Godfather) the mafia team is 3 of EFHW, mcmc, Awaclus and ashersky and while I guess that is plausible it feels more likely that RR is mafia.

If I look at the RR wagon when it was at its biggest it was this:

faust, JaketheBaseballGod22, Joseph2302, The_Wine_Merchant (so again all town on this alternate wagon just before the end of day).

This makes me suspect RR in the same way that I suspect Awaclus above, although this wagon was slightly less quick.

It is notable that EFHW and Awaclus are both very unwilling to lynch RR here, although EFHW has obviously changed direction since the start of the day. Although Awaclus was more adamant that the wanted to lynch Jake than that he didn't want to lynch RR. I don't know where Awaclus is on the RR wagon today.

So summary from wagons mostly:

Day1 I get scummy from Awaclus (this changes depending on whether we get a RB claim or not) and ashersky (this is mostly based off whether Awaclus is mafia, if he isn't ashersky isn't as scummy from this)

Day2 I get RR being scummy obviously and if true, EFHW and Awaclus are a bit more suspect, although they were both pretty forward with their opinions. I don't know them well enough to know if that is their playstyle (I am guessing it just is for Awaclus), but maybe mafia wants to be more flexible there to pretend to be townie? But mostly I didn't see anything to make change my mind about wanting to lynch RR.

And I don't like his most recent statement saying it is the easy lynch. Even if it is (which I am not convinced that it is based on how yesterday went down), that is a poor defense, especially if it is the only one.

[Awaclus]

I'm here and actively reading the game.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I'm here and actively reading the game.

Cool.

[EFHW]

@TWM, Finding out Jake was town and gkrieg probably is town and RR's posts today are what caused me to change direction on RR.

[EFHW]

That was a useful reread.

[Joseph2302]

I'm the easy lynch. Don't want to think too much? Vote RR!

But we're at LyLo, so this is like super bad.

Claim already Mr scum

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm the easy lynch. Don't want to think too much? Vote RR!

But we're at LyLo, so this is like super bad.

Claim already Mr scum

I'm a VT. This doesn't really help me, but I probably would've claimed Roleblocker if I was scum.

[EFHW]

He probably would have. unvote Sorry, but I need to hear the roleblocker claim.

[EFHW]

If we have one, scum know who it is by POE.

[EFHW]

Clearing Awaclus is more important than whatever we might gain from an unclaimed roleblocker.

[EFHW]

In fact, each person who hasn't claimed a role yet should post. I'll start. I am not the roleblocker.

[mcmcsalot]

Ugh these claims we have gotten into are so unhelpful. I still don't believe awaclus claim. Still not claiming my role.

[mcmcsalot]

If we have one, scum know who it is by POE.

I don't think this is true, it depends on who is actually scum out of the people that have claimed and haven't.

[EFHW]

Ugh these claims we have gotten into are so unhelpful. I still don't believe awaclus claim. Still not claiming my role.

don't want your role, just yes/no re: roleblocker.

[ashersky]

Revote RR please.

His claim is the ultimate WIFOM game.

"Scum claims RB here to out the real RB, so my VT claim means I'm really town!"
"But you just said that which means you thought of it which means you are actually scum!"
"But I knew it would look that way so why would I point it out which means I'm town!"
etc. etc.

Lynch RR.

[ashersky]

He probably would have. unvote Sorry, but I need to hear the roleblocker claim.

You don't need to hear the claim.  You need to feel confident it's out there.  Do you?

[Joseph2302]

I'm the easy lynch. Don't want to think too much? Vote RR!

But we're at LyLo, so this is like super bad.

Claim already Mr scum

I'm a VT. This doesn't really help me, but I probably would've claimed Roleblocker if I was scum.

Revote RR please.

His claim is the ultimate WIFOM game.

"Scum claims RB here to out the real RB, so my VT claim means I'm really town!"
"But you just said that which means you thought of it which means you are actually scum!"
"But I knew it would look that way so why would I point it out which means I'm town!"
etc. etc.

Lynch RR.

Yh, RR obviously knew this, so no town cred there. It's almost like he was fishing for the town cred.

Could also possibly be a RR/Awaclus scum team.
Although I'm still going with Awaclus being fine, unless we get a counterclaim

[ashersky]

Yh, RR obviously knew this, so no town cred there. It's almost like he was fishing for the town cred.

Not so much "almost like he was fishing for the town cred" but "he was definitely, absolutely fishing for the town cred."

[ashersky]

I think Awaclus's claim is too risky from scum.  We just ride it out.

I'm wary of painting too many "but if this role claims, it helps us confirm/out him" scenarios -- it just gives scum more ways to hurt Awaclus's cred if he's town.

Which I think he is.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Do we have an opinion on what Awaclus thinks should happen here? I feel like his opinion is one of the most important, but don't remember him stating what he thinks would be best.

[Awaclus]

Do we have an opinion on what Awaclus thinks should happen here? I feel like his opinion is one of the most important, but don't remember him stating what he thinks would be best.

Well, that depends on whether or not the rest of the town can trust me enough to not lynch me despite the roleblocker staying silent. If not, the roleblocker should speak up, but if yes, then there doesn't seem to be any point in revealing any extra information.

[Awaclus]

I think I said earlier that the roleblocker should claim, but that's only because at the time (or maybe before that) mcmc and maybe someone else had been voicing their suspicions about me.

[EFHW]

RR WOULD have claimed roleblocker, though.  He loves claiming stuff.  And then they would know who the roleblocker was when he was counterclaimed.