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[Cuzz]

I'm inclined to believe Frisk here. A Jailkeeper could easily out him if he was lying, and there's no way he could know that there isn't one in this game. There's a 50-50 chance that there is one, so it'd be a huge risk to lie about this. Someone please correct me if my logic is mistaken here.

That would then mean that me, Frisk, and Jorbles are all town, and thus two of ashersky, Eevee, and Voltaire are scum. Those seem like good odds to me, so I'm not sure I agree with a no lynch. Of course, from Frisk's perspective, I'm not confirmed town, so to him the odds are 50-50 of hitting scum.

Now, Eevee and Voltaire were both ready to lynch ashersky yesterday (and in fact thought we had until the recount), so it makes little sense for either of them to be his scumpartner.

My deduction leads then to:

a. Voltaire and Eevee are both scum.

b. One of Volt and Eevee are scum, and were willing to bus scumpartner ashersky.

b. Frisk is making a massively crazy scum play here, in which case the above analysis is invalid.

[Voltaire]

b. Frisk is making a massively crazy scum play here, in which case the above analysis is invalid.

Which he's done before, FYI (just read whichever game that was yesterday, the one with multiple scumteams and he was the last one).

Anyway, I'm backing through the thread right now.

One possible way Frisk knows it's safe to claim Cop is if the rolecop (either him or his partner) has confirmed the other power roles, or lack thereof. I don't think that's possible, though, we've only had two nights and we know everyone who died was vanilla.

Perhaps I shouldn't be as strong on Frisk as I am, but let's remember the massive WIFOM mafia play it takes to have let him live last night. That is required if he is town.

[Cuzz]

Edit to the above: as Frisk pointed out, any town PR could out him as a liar right now. A cop could counterclaim, the jailkeeper could debunk his N1 Geolib claim, and a doctor knows there can't be 3 PR's.

I'd therefore be willing to vote to lynch Eevee or Voltaire based on my analysis above. Of course I realize anyone else doesn't have the exact same train of thought since they don't know I'm town.

If anyone still doubts I'm town, though, reread my claim at the end of D1. It's not proof obviously, but maybe you'll agree that it helps my case.

[Voltaire]

As I re-read the thread and keep up on new posts at the same time, I'd just like to remind everyone that I'm Morgrim('s role). Really, that's the strongest defense I can think of.

But suspicion is understandable. I know I badly misplayed the end of Day 2.

[Voltaire]

Now, Eevee and Voltaire were both ready to lynch ashersky yesterday (and in fact thought we had until the recount)

Just FYI this is not true for me. In fact, the entire reason I have this lovely little scarlet letter under my avatar is because I posted to note that it wasn't a lynch.

[Jorbles]

Hey guy, first off I want to say that I'm really sorry for not being around for deadline on Tuesday. I don't know if I would have changed anything as I was not willing to lynch ashersky at the time, but maybe we could have lynched someone else. I got the timezone difference mixed up and showed up after the thread had already been locked. Clearly, my reads are terrible though, first Robz and now Geolib. The GeoLib nightkill makes me look scummy for pushing his lynch, but ashersky was on that too, and now I don't trust my read on him making newb mistakes the way I did before.

Frisk claimed cop and then wasn't killed last night. He says there is a jailkeeper in the game who will believe him and maybe the presence of one made mafia get into a WIFOM battle with the keeper and hoped to off the keeper before killing the cop. I don't want to help mafia, but if I'm thinking it then they probably are too. If Frisk is cop than we have a JK/Cop set up, if he's lying than we must have a JK and Frisk knows because he or his scumbuddy got no result earlier or he guessed and got incredibly lucky. However, then he wouldn't be claiming that I'm town to build trust because wouldn't it be smarter scum play to go aggressive at this point and claim to have found scum on a townie?

As for no lynch, I have no idea what the smart play for that is. I think I'll go read mafiascum for some outside insight into this.

[Voltaire]

However, then he wouldn't be claiming that I'm town to build trust because wouldn't it be smarter scum play to go aggressive at this point and claim to have found scum on a townie?

Y'know, you might be right. If he does, then we mislynch and scum wins.

[Jorbles]

Also for mafiascum's page on no lynch here is the link.

[Eevee]

Super busy I will read everything and make a post in a few hours. Good to see everyone (?) talking already.

[Jorbles]

So I went over this and I think I have to believe Frisk. It's too crazy for him to say I'm town if he's scum. I guess there's a slight motivation in that he might be able to get an easy mislynch tomorrow now that I trust him, but it just seems really out there. If we have as many PRs for this amount of people as we think we do a no lynch might actually be useful, there's a really high chance of a mislynch right now, scum just have to refuse to vote if a wagon forms on one of them and wait for a wagon to form on someone else. Putting anyone to L-2 can give them a chance to quickhammer. Even if the Jailkeeper misses the killer and we lose Frisk we're not really in a worse case than we are now.

[Eevee]

Okay, found a little bit of time already.

First of all Frisk, full reasoning for targeting Geo and Jorbles?

Then, let me propose a hypothesis. I didn't come to think of this yesterday, because you left us with ridiculously little time, which I still think is very scummy because you posted several times and the real cop would a) have a huge incentive to stay alive and b) not want to put town into the spot you put us (scum on the other hand obviously wants to delay fakeclaiming as long as possible).

I don't think you are lying about knowing there is a jailkeeper, because it's very convoluted and also easily verified to be false. That's why my first instinct was you have to be telling the truth. However, because of the rolecop there is another way you could have that information:

You are a mafia rolecop. Night 1, you try to investigate Geo but don't get a result. This is how you know there must be jailkeeper in the game. You claim cop thinking it's 33% we have no other power roles and you get infinite town cred and cruise to victory and 66% there is another power role who is now forced to counterclaim (+ you might even get the jailkeeper too if he gets excited and rushes to "verify your claim", props for the jailkeeper for not doing this btw!). So even in the worst case you out a power role, which is a super boom since your death looked inevitable without a good claim anyways.

Is there any reason why this couldn't be happening? I know it's a little far-fetched, but so is you claiming cop and surviving the night as a townie..
What would have you done yesterday if you were scum?

[Voltaire]

Yeah. That bears more thinking about.

Still re-reading day 1 and Frisk is just so scummy. (Though all of his Day 3/end of Day 2 is coloring my opinion I am sure). So scummy. So scummy.

And he lived through the night. I still can't see past this.

Also, if he's scum he clears Jorbles, the lurker, knowing this likely won't be that helpful to the town.

I know I keep saying "more later," but I'm at work right now, this is tricky.

[Eevee]

Frisk, have you been "pulling a robz"* in this game?
*intentionally playing scummy as a power role to avoid getting nightkilled.

[Voltaire]

Frisk, have you been "pulling a robz"* in this game?
*intentionally playing scummy as a power role to avoid getting nightkilled.

He's clearly been acti-lurking. He's posted at key moments all through days one and two - right after Morgrim's VT claim, right after Morgrim put Eevee at L-2, etc.

[Eevee]

Btw, if Frisk was scum would he ever claim he investigated his scumbuddy? Is Jorbles obvtown now regardless of Frisk's role?

[Voltaire]

Btw, if Frisk was scum would he ever claim he investigated his scumbuddy? Is Jorbles obvtown now regardless of Frisk's role?

I've been treating it that way as I re-read, but we can't ignore the possibility that Frisk is going all-out crazy scum mad (and clearing his buddy).

As I re-read I'm considering pairings of Frisk/Ash, Frisk/Eevee (nothing personal Eevee, I really just want to consider all odds), and, if Frisk is telling the truth, some combination of Cuzz, Ashersky, and Eevee (which is unlikely to me). If it's 2 of the final 3, I'd lean to voting ashersky for playing scummy as scum and getting away with the n00b excuse.

[Voltaire]

Sigh. Add Frisk/Cuzz to that list as "possible."

If Frisk is scum, he either cleared his partner (Jorbles), Eevee is also scum, or both scum were on the wagon for Robz. That last one I view as most likely (ash's obvscum play, Frisk settling in nicely as the 3rd vote on Robz).

[Voltaire]

Frisk: I see absolutely nothing on Day 1 that would imply you would investigate Geo if you really were the cop. I second the call for your reasonings on your investigations.

[Captain_Frisk]

Eevee is 100% right - regarding me being rolecop as plausible.  Me as rolecop and us having only 1 PR is just as likely as us having a Jailkeeper and a cop.  Of course - this assumes that I'd be willing to claim something I could be counter claimed on.

Longer explanation of my investigations:

Attempting to cop Geo - wasn't a very strong read.

Post #99 sounded like something I would do as scum.

Reading about the set-up on Mafiascum. Mod clarification question. Can the Rolecop NK and investigate on the same night?

Hedging:

I am totally onboard the policy lynch for super anti-town behavior, but I think we should at least wait for O to get here. I would be a little annoyed if D1 lynch was decided before I'd even realized the game had started...

But yeah, roleclaiming, self-voting, threatening to self-hammer, posting only complaints about how one is VT...

I say unless we get a strong scum read on someone else, then we lynch Morgrim. He's just as likely to be scum as anyone else in the D1 crapshoot, and is playing anti-town regardless.

I'm holding off casting my vote until O gets here though.

Paroting me:

So I basically agree with everything Frisk just said. That's all for now

Possible overeager town?

Well shit. Looks like Ashersky took matters into his own hands. Robz, last words quick

Nothing outrageous - nothing compared to his day 2 pushing of the asher case, but as I pointed out yesterday (game yesterday) - we didn't really have alot to go on - given that RobZ really only suspected Mogrim.

Night 2 - Honestly I didn't put a super amount of thought. 

1 - I'm on vacation and my wife gives me a sign and a look every time she catches me refreshing the phone - and rereading the thread and putting together alot of thought takes a decent amount of time (she's napping now!)
2 - I kindof expected to die.  My only hope was going to be that because you guys don't trust me - that scum would leave me alive because I can never be cleared.  As someone pointed out, even if I caught scum - the rest of town might not believe me because the right thing to do today is nolynch.  I can only assume that they thought the jailkeeper was more dangerous - because he can still actually prevent a loss even if we mislynch today.
3 - I thought about confirming on Geo, but Jorble's epic lurk just seemed so scummy.  I mean - I probably would have hammered me if I was in a town's shoes - and I thought that hanging back might be the scum play to set me up for a lynch today.

What would I have done as scum?  Probably something similar to what's happening here. 

I'd go in with the gameplan of trying to lynch experienced players.  (RobZ - check!) As random scum, I would have killed O or myself.  I probably would have preferred me, because of O's heavy push on RobZ, but O would have been my pick hands down if I was scum.  Then, Day 2 I would have subtly tried to push for the remaining experienced players, which in this case would be eevee. 

I think that as roleblocker scum per your theory - I would have claimed jailkeeper yesterday.  I feel that protective roles are more powerful later in the game (you can't argue with the results like you can with someone who claims a scum investigation result)  So I would have preferred to either survive or actually out the jailkeeper. 

Last night (given the no lynch result), my #1 pick probably would have been Volt, since I learned my lesson in M4 and 6 about leaving confirmed townies around (SFS / Tables in M4).  It would probably depend on my jailkeeper read.  If I thought that Asher was jailkeeper, I'd probably go for it.  If I thought that a more experienced player was the jailkeeper, then I probably would have mixed it up and gone for someone else, but I'm not sure who.  Probably you eevee, but thats just a gut feel.

@volt - what about me seems so scummy?  Unwillingness to vote for Asher?  Scumread on Geo?  Phone posting while on vacation?  It's true that I didn't say much on Day 1, but I'm not really sure what else you really wanted me to do.  Give me some quotes to respond to! 

Was your desire to lynch today because you weren't aware that nolynching @ 6 is the (generally) correct play? 

@eevee - lets turn it around.  As cop - how would you have played?  Would you have claimed @ L-1 immediately even though the potential hammerers hadn't weighed in yet?  No lynch and potential cop investigations is still better than lynching the cop. 

Mafia is totally smiling that you guys are continuing to still press me.  Leaving me alive was a good move after all.

Where is Asher?

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk: I see absolutely nothing on Day 1 that would imply you would investigate Geo if you really were the cop. I second the call for your reasonings on your investigations.

I didn't breadcrumb anything.  If you go read murder mystery mafia - I didn't breadcrumb my (successful) tracks on ftl and Galzria either.  I don't think I did in Role Madness either - where I was a tracker/cop (my choice!  best role ever eHalc!)

Most of my night time actions decisions are made after night fall, not based on how I was feeling during the day. 

[Voltaire]

Time for some POE, guys & gals.

Remaining possible pairs (this is from my position, so adjust accordingly if you think necessary):

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

(don't think I'm missing anyone)

1. Now, I've crossed out some pairs because they've had big spats and/or voted each other early on Day 2. This is an assumption that mafia wouldn't publicaly go for each other's throats. Weigh the following based on that assumption.

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

1A. Assume Frisk is telling the truth.

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

1B. Assume Frisk is lying, and scum.

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

[Voltaire]

That post was not complete. I meant to hit "preview" instead. I was hoping to scumhunt Frisk some more, but it's too late. Upshot:

Frisk, if you are town, you should be ok with lynching Cuzz. If you are not, you are scum, and we should be ok lynching you.

I do not know the strategy behind "No Lynch" other than it is almost always bad town play. I do not know the exceptions to this. If someone would like to explain Frisk's claim that it's good with 6 (2 scum), feel free. I read the wiki and it didn't seem to help.

[Captain_Frisk]

That post was not complete. I meant to hit "preview" instead. I was hoping to scumhunt Frisk some more, but it's too late. Upshot:

Frisk, if you are town, you should be ok with lynching Cuzz. If you are not, you are scum, and we should be ok lynching you.

I do not know the strategy behind "No Lynch" other than it is almost always bad town play. I do not know the exceptions to this. If someone would like to explain Frisk's claim that it's good with 6 (2 scum), feel free. I read the wiki and it didn't seem to help.

Ok - here's the deal with 6 (no powers version)

4 townies
2 scum

In order to win - all 4 townies need to co-operate on scum.  If you mislynch - you lose - because scum kill one of the other townies and its 2 v 2 - game over.

A random lynch has a 1/3 chance to hit scum.  Each individual townie has a 40% chance of a scum read being correct.

With 5:
3 townies
2 scum

A random lynch has a 2/5 (chance to hit scum).  Each individual townie has a 50% chance of a scum read being correct.

1/3 < 2/5 ; 40% < 50%

In either case - a mislynch loses the game.

The jailkeeper makes it a little stranger, because it is now actually possible to mislynch and still not lose - so makes it less clear cut.  I'm not 100% sure here

Having a cop definitely favors the extra night.

As for Cuzz - I absolutely will not be bullied into anything.  Even though you're my strongest townread, how do I know that you're not scum trying to force me into a townie lynch?  I'll review after some errands.

[Voltaire]

@ Frisk - I see your reply. Want to post this first, then will respond.

This is the fixed/complete version of my earlier post.

Remaining possible pairs (this is from my position, so adjust accordingly if you think necessary):

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

(don't think I'm missing anyone)

1. Now, I've crossed out some pairs because they've had big spats and/or voted each other early on Day 2. This is an assumption that mafia wouldn't publicly go for each other's throats. Weigh the following based on that assumption.

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

1A. Assume Frisk is telling the truth.

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

1B. Assume Frisk is lying, and scum.

Frisk/Cuzz
Frisk/Ash
Frisk/Eevee
Frisk/Jorbles
Cuzz/Ash
Cuzz/Eevee
Cuzz/Jorbles
Ash/Eevee

I want to hear from the rest of you. Especially Cuzz.

[Voltaire]

As for Cuzz - I absolutely will not be bullied into anything.  Even though you're my strongest townread, how do I know that you're not scum trying to force me into a townie lynch?  I'll review after some errands.

Oh, you shouldn't be bullied into anything. But if you're town (which I'm back to not believing), you'll have to trust someone, at some point.

Everyone else, chime in, don't vote, take your time. I'll have a summary of the case against Frisk up later (as in, likely not today).