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Author Topic: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 7)  (Read 269247 times)

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2900 on: March 02, 2013, 11:23:00 am »

or do I have to do it for you?
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2901 on: March 02, 2013, 11:23:05 am »

I'm very sorry if robz is the scum and we lose. If Jimmmmm is the scum we probably were dead anyway.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2902 on: March 02, 2013, 11:23:31 am »

okay, fine. Unvote 'till then
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2903 on: March 02, 2013, 11:24:10 am »

just unvote for 5 minutes to see if I can show you that you are wrong.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2904 on: March 02, 2013, 11:24:20 am »

thnxs
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2905 on: March 02, 2013, 11:24:45 am »

I mean, I think you are more likely to be MU than Maquis, but like robz says, that is very possible as well. Robz being maquis is very unlikely.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2906 on: March 02, 2013, 11:25:11 am »

going to check D2 Yuma-mcmc interactions.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2907 on: March 02, 2013, 11:32:03 am »

looks to me like you make that big post on him earlyish D2, respond to mcmc's defense a couple times, but then drop it for the rest of the day. It doesn't make sense, but it makes a ton of other things make sense.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2908 on: March 02, 2013, 11:42:00 am »

Day2 yuma:mcmc

First post of the day:

Quote
But I have a kind of a hard time finding scum there... Jimmmm to an extent, along with mcmc--both were kinda pseudo-on the wagon or at least expressed willingness to be on the wagon. Dsell-no, me-no. theorel is just hard to read, no? Eevee I want to read as town.

Quote
so... galz was scum right....? I am thinking doing a reread on him might clue us into potential scum partners. Now, I have been scum with galz before (ZM1)--and I think that others who have been scum with galz should add their own bit as well--but one thing I remember about him, and I think I shared this in another game, was that Galz is fully ready and willing to buss as mafia. He said to me in the quicktopic that we shared that he is unlikely to chainsaw or defend a scummate. I don't know if he would be willing to start cases on players, but he might...

So what I am looking for are people that came under a bit of heat and to which, Galz did not defend, but instead added to the flames.

 - From this I doubt that Eevee is Galz's partner. He was pretty adamant in his defense all game long. Like really, really adamant.

 - He has an interesting post about lurkers...  January 09, 2013, 1:54:03 am. Here he basically says that outside of lio--who he has no basis of comparison for--everyone is posting about the same that he would expect. Now, since we know Galz was scum my bet is that he would have potentially turned on a partner and brought heat against them if that player was lurking. So I am leaning toward thinking that the lurkers at that point, theo, themunch, glooble, dsell aren't his partners.

 - his big post is also a bit telling January 10, 2013, 10:08:34 am. here he analyzes cuzz, jimmm, shraeye and mcmc. He has a townie read on mcmc, slight town read, but could lynch read on shraeye, slight scum read off Jimmmm, and voted Cuzz.

 - He does however, later express a willingness to lynch Glooble, but doesn't change his vote.

 - From this list provided by Cuzz (Here's something to chat about. My wagon is Galz, Munch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae and ash.), galz says he only has a town read of raerae...

 - and his last post is an FOS at the people that were on the shraeye wagon and me for starting it.

so in summary:

1. ashersky - scum read from the shraeye wagon FOS and the Cuzz wagon
2. Robz - really not mentioned at all, reads wise, but has a constant conversation with him, but was on the shraeye wagon FOS
3. yuma - only read me via the shraeye wagon FOS at the end.
4. Eevee - strong town read all game, but was on the shraeye wagon FOS
5. Shraeye - slight town read, but could lynch
7. Glooble - doesn't think scummy for lurking, but would be willing to lynch
9. liopoil - scummy because on the cuzz wagon
10. mcmcsalot   - town read
11. Jimmmmm - slight scum read and was on the shraeye wagon FOS
12. theorel - not much of anything about theorel, not scummy because of lurking
13. TheMunch - scummy because on the Cuzz wagon
14. Dsell - not much about Dsell, but not scummy because of lurking.

So if I had only this to go off, I would be most interested in voting Jimmm or Glooble or possibly shraeye. From this alone I wouldn't lynch Eevee, Dsell, mcmc or theorel. But thankfully, this isn't all I have to go off.

lio here I think you misunderstood something. I am not saying that I have a town read on mcmc, but rather that Galz did. Now I will admit that I was thrown off by Galz's townread on mcmc. Because in previous games that isn't how galz played... but I was able to pinpoint galz's four players and found it highly likely that a partner was in one of those four see below:

Quote
I am much more comfortable in thinking that there is scum within the three of mcmc/Jimmm/shraeye then I am in thinking that there is scum in raerae/shraeye/munch. Galz's trio actually has something of substance to base it off. It isn't surefire, but it is a lot better than raerae/shraeye/munch... But again has the same danger... For example: say if we lynch mcmc and say town!Jimmmm dies in the night that doesn't guarantee shraeye is scum... and could easily result in 2 mislynches before we finally realize that there wasn't scum in the mix... But I do think it is a better bet than heading down the other route.

Quote
I think right now I am leaning toward an mcmc vote or a glooble vote... Although I first want to have glooble answer some outstanding questions and I am curious about Robz's extra information that he is withholding... {Arrested Development reference in my head, let's see if I can find it... I did! }

Here I start toward a mcmc lynch being possible... what happened before that from other players?

the following are quotes from other players...

lio said:
Quote
I now have a townread on every player in this game except galzria and mcmcsalot. galz is dead, so Vote: Mcmcsalot. The rest of you have done pretty darn well coming across as on the good guy's side.

The biggest reason for this is that he said he would hammer but didn't. It's a good way to not take a side, and to not really be under scrutiny regardless of how cuzz flipped. Sure, if cuzz flipped scum people would say, "oh look, mcmc was off-wagon, but I guess he was going to hammer, and he didn't oppose the lynch... and oh look eevee REALLY didn't want to lynch him!" It seems overly cautious. Scum need to be more cautious than town, so excessive carefulness is scummy.

the munch said:
Quote
So I opened today with 2 reads:  Ashersky's odd end of the day play, and mcmc's "I'll hammer" then goes off the radar.

Obviously I've talked about Ashersky ad nauseum and I nearly completely forgot about my mcmc thing.  I remember why I forgot.  Mcmc responded pretty shortly thereafter and I didn't like his response, but didn't really have anything solid to debate regarding it without doing some rereading so I thought "eh, I'll get back to it" then I never did.  Whoops.

So I reread the end of the day with mcmc's defense in mind (it was basically "I wanted people to answer cuzz's question and by the time I came back he was dead").  I can see that this is what mcmc wants to say he was doing but on reread it felt very hollow.  He made the post that he wanted to wait for people to answer cuzz's question.  Called out Raerae once, and then said "oh people have said a bunch, I guess Cuzz isn't dead yet, I'm going to sleep."  There is nothing inherently wrong about going to sleep or sleeping through deadline but I dont like the juxtaposition of all of:

- Vocally stating intent to hammer
- Waiting for responses to Cuzz's question
- Not actually pushing very hard that that was what he was waiting for
- His last post of the day  that acknowledges the possibility that Cuzz could have died while he was gone while leaving unceremoniously.

This all gives a ton of "I want to look like I would have voted for Cuzz"  While not actually caring one way or another if Cuzz got lynched.

Yuma also commented on Mcmc in 1513.  I think Ashersky has been quite scummy, and would be more than happy if he got lynched but I do not like the way that mcmc threw his vote down.  "Oh I guess I used to have scum reads on him".  It feels like one of the scummier votes I've seen in a while.  I think all this is scummy enough on re-inspection that I am comfortable changing my vote.  Vote: Mcmc

my posts now:
Quote
let's start with mcmc:

mcmc is active in the Jimmm/eevee situation early on. He started off thinking eevee was scummy... but then turned Jimmm into his top scumread, (not voting for either)... I pointed this out and still find it to be a contradiction in that mcmc followed Jimmm's case on eevee and read eevee as scum because of it... but then ended up with a scum read on Jimmm because he "pushed the case on eevee too hard" but he still had a scum read on eevee??

Mcmc then votes ashersky. He does this when he decides to go through person by person, the first person is ash, who he votes primarily for ash's push on raerae. He maintains it for a while, while he analyzes other players such as Robz, me and eevee... but eventually he abandons it because it was an ancient read from a long time ago.

In two posts pretty close together he offers that glooble has done nothing that he found scummy, but then expresses that he would be ok with it, but would want to hear more.

Finally, after posts and posts about how he found Jimmm scummy there is finally a vote: largely due to shraeye's case on him. In the same post he expresses a slight scum read on Cuzz... but doesn't say anythign else about him until Cuzz is at L-1 (where he unvotes Jimmmm) and thinks Cuzz should claim, but says that he would be willing to lynch Cuzz. Another weird thing is that he says he has been "tunneling" Jimmmm.... but he had only been voting for him for 2 posts.... hmmm

Mcmc detaches himself from "the cases" made on Cuzz, but instead says that he finds him scummy because of his reaction. Announces intent to hammer, then 2 posts to raerae and then goes to bed...


Day 2:

So I just glossed through most of day 2 and there were posts, but I struggled to find anything to comment on... this is suspicious to me, a change in posting behavior from the previous day. At least I think it is a change in posting behavior. Let me go through them all to see if they lack the substance as much as I think...

- theory talk
- talking with ash about raerae's death
- answering themunch about the intent to hammer
- theory talk with theorel
- calls out Jimmmm
- comment on shraeye/munch/ash, has a town read on theorel
- theory talk
- theory talk
- theory talk
- theory talk
- explains scummy read on ash
- theory talk
- questioning Jimmmm
- votes ash for his "constant responses"
- would not have been supportive of the shraeye quick wagon
- disagrees with munch's case on him
- explains "constant responses" to me...

So there was more substance there once I went through it fully. I guess my major beef with mcmc are as follows:

1. his contradiction in finding jimmmm's case on eevee scummy but still finding eevee scummy
2. his no read on Glooble, shortly followed by his willingness to lynch glooble
3. his self proclaiming that he was "tunneling" Jimmmm when in fact it was only a vote for two posts...
4. a slight change in posting behavior from the day prior... at least I think it was a slight change. The just seems like less content. I have had this theory before that it is easier to be scum day1, but as the days progress it becomes harder and harder to find things to talk about... see ftl in Robz's giant game for an example--and that was before ftl lost interest--I am talking about day2 and 3, where I called him out on it and he ended up being scum. This is similar to me.
5. his read on ash and his vote on ash. Perhaps part of that is that he hasn't played with ash as much, but... in conversation's about other players he hasn't played as much before mcmc has made a point of "deferring to the elders" about their playstyle... He did so on Glooble, Dsell and someone else... I am kinda curious that he didn't do so in this situation, especially when some of us are offering up opinions on ash.
6. there is very little to no talking about Galzria in his posts... at least nothing stood out. I need to go back and check my analysis of Galz to say what he said about mcmc... (yes, I know mcmc could be scum not aligned with Galz, but I think it is stupid to not try and find galz's partners) and galz expressed a full out town read on mcmc...! If mcmc is scum partners with Galz this would fly in direct contradiction to what I would expect from Galz to do. Hmmmm.

I then do a post on Glooble... and end up voting mcmc! not glooble!

Jimmmm then immediately voted mcmc the next post. At this point mcmc has votes on him by themunch, lio, yuma and jimmmm and is at L-3.

Like you said, mcmc responds to my posts and I respond back, but my vote doesn't leave!

I then do a reread on lio and decide that mcmc is till scummier than mcmc. That is two players (glooble and lio) that I have reread and found less scummy than mcmc. If I were to not want mcmc lynched, those rereads would be the ideal time to jump ship!

ash then puts mcmc at L-2. At this point it really looks like mcmc will be lynched and Robz appears to think that it is inevitable because he comes out with his extremely convenient save of his partner.

Robz then saves his partner and his wagon dissolves.

So again I repeat that toward then end of day2, mcmc was my obvious choice for a lynch. the other two options in lio and glooble that I give I had used up and placed mcmc higher on my lynch wagon list. If I didn't want mcmc lynched as scum I would have abandoned the lynch during one of those rereads.

If I didn't want mcmc lynched like you said, when else would I have left the wagon? Maybe wait til he is at L-1 and then jump off? That would be obvious yes?

So I didn't leave the mcmc wagon when I could as scum... Why? Because I wanted him lynched. Why? Because I thought he was scum and I was scum hunting damn it!  Maybe you don't know this, but I am actually pretty good at scum hunting. I have one of the higher accurate lynch % out there and to be lynched and lose the game for doing good scum hunting is extremely aggravating.


 
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2909 on: March 02, 2013, 11:45:56 am »

I guess this is my beef. You think I did something suicidal.

Whereas you are ignoring the obvious. Robz just happened to investigate mcmc. What are the odds of that? 1/13 at that point? And mcmc just happened to not have used a night action and so could be cleared as being on the very scum team that he was apart of... when his partner is Galz, who was a rolecop?

If we had lynched mcmc--what Robz prevented--we probably would have won the game by now! But scum!Robz had to save his partner. To not do so would be basically losing. All it would take would be one lynch, one night kill, one investigation and MU would be all gone. He had to save his partner and he did.

Obvious play is obvious play, but you are ignoring the obvious!
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2910 on: March 02, 2013, 11:50:30 am »

I mean, I think you are more likely to be MU than Maquis, but like robz says, that is very possible as well. Robz being maquis is very unlikely.

why is this? I feel like again I have pointed out ways that are extremely plausible for Robz to be Maquis. And again I am befuddled. You think he is less likely to be Maquis than me. Remember the player that had a townread on Glooble all stinking game until a wagon formed on him and then followed everyone else into voting for him. Or do you buy the story that he was "the crucial almighty leader" of helping town decide between glooble or lio?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2911 on: March 02, 2013, 11:51:41 am »

and where the world is Jimmmm? Well right now he is probably sleeping in Australia... but he has had so little to add in the last few days
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2912 on: March 02, 2013, 11:52:14 am »

to be lynched and lose the game for doing good scum hunting is extremely aggravating.
about to respond to the rest, but first I'd just like to say that I'm certainly not voting you because of your scumhunting. Your being vocal in the glooble and mcmc lynches is the only reason I didn't vote you sooner. It is certainly a strong defense, but as been said before, everyone has a strong defense. You are the only one that doesn't have a defense relating to night actions, in fact, the night actions are somewhat incriminating. This is my main reason for voting you.

Gonna read your post again, then post thoughts.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2913 on: March 02, 2013, 11:53:41 am »

to be lynched and lose the game for doing good scum hunting is extremely aggravating.
about to respond to the rest, but first I'd just like to say that I'm certainly not voting you because of your scumhunting. Your being vocal in the glooble and mcmc lynches is the only reason I didn't vote you sooner. It is certainly a strong defense, but as been said before, everyone has a strong defense. You are the only one that doesn't have a defense relating to night actions, in fact, the night actions are somewhat incriminating. This is my main reason for voting you.

Gonna read your post again, then post thoughts.

and once again I feel like I have responded to that and pointed out that in fact you are wrong. But again, you never responded, so I have no idea whether or not you read them or not...
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2914 on: March 02, 2013, 11:54:51 am »

I don't think robz can be maquis because of his D2 claim, the lack of a second NK N4, and even the fact that ash died, not me, N5. Also his certainty that I was scum.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2915 on: March 02, 2013, 12:05:15 pm »

I don't think robz can be maquis because of his D2 claim, the lack of a second NK N4, and even the fact that ash died, not me, N5. Also his certainty that I was scum.

well then how do you explain those same things with me? Except for the thinking you were scum, which I did not yesterday.

Does my claim fit being a Maquis? Does my not killing N4 explain being a Maquis? How does ash dying instead of me explain being a Maquis?

Let me explain. I am going to try and take a neutral standpoint here...

Robz claim as 1-shot tracker as Maquis is a better scum claim than 1-shot LR I believe.

Not killing night 4.... In both scenarios it is weird, because it leaves alive the Maquis cop longer than necessary. We can hypothesize that theorel was killed by mcmc (or his partner if he has one, but if that is true then there isn't a Maquis) so for this purpose we can assume it was mcmc. Both yuma and Robz could have done it to make it look like there wasn't a Maquis around. Because ash would be the logical kill for both teams. So I don't know if either player gets an advantage here.

Killing ash N5 instead of you. It has been repeatedly said by Robz--and now apparently by you--that Robz as Maquis wouldn't want to kill ash because ash had a townread on him. I kinda agree on this, but I still think that it would be uber risky to not kill ash. Why? Because reads can change very rapidly overnight. A reread can change everything and Robz wouldn't know who ash was going to investigate. The was always the possiblity that ash would investigate Robz and turn him out as scum. So he had to die, just to eliminate that risk! But the same logic works here as well for yuma. there was a chance that yuma would be investigated by ash and found out as scum, so ash had to die to eliminate that risk.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2916 on: March 02, 2013, 12:05:55 pm »

I understand that galzria had a townread on mcmc, not you.

The point about being the third person to get on the wagon is good. For some reason I had thought that you initiated the case, which makes much more sense as MU yuma. Probably because I just re-read you in isolation, not the whole thread.

I guess the lynch was really quite likely without the tracker result, which you have no way of knowing would happen...

So that defense really is considerably stronger than I had thought. I don't know though... The night actions just fit perfectly if you are MU. I think you said you have shown why this is not so. I believe I have read every post in this thread, but I may have forgotten, so could you point me to that? It's very possible I saw it, just disagreed with it.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2917 on: March 02, 2013, 12:15:11 pm »

I don't think robz can be maquis because of his D2 claim, the lack of a second NK N4, and even the fact that ash died, not me, N5. Also his certainty that I was scum.

well then how do you explain those same things with me? Except for the thinking you were scum, which I did not yesterday.

Does my claim fit being a Maquis? Does my not killing N4 explain being a Maquis? How does ash dying instead of me explain being a Maquis?

Let me explain. I am going to try and take a neutral standpoint here...

Robz claim as 1-shot tracker as Maquis is a better scum claim than 1-shot LR I believe.

Not killing night 4.... In both scenarios it is weird, because it leaves alive the Maquis cop longer than necessary. We can hypothesize that theorel was killed by mcmc (or his partner if he has one, but if that is true then there isn't a Maquis) so for this purpose we can assume it was mcmc. Both yuma and Robz could have done it to make it look like there wasn't a Maquis around. Because ash would be the logical kill for both teams. So I don't know if either player gets an advantage here.

Killing ash N5 instead of you. It has been repeatedly said by Robz--and now apparently by you--that Robz as Maquis wouldn't want to kill ash because ash had a townread on him. I kinda agree on this, but I still think that it would be uber risky to not kill ash. Why? Because reads can change very rapidly overnight. A reread can change everything and Robz wouldn't know who ash was going to investigate. The was always the possiblity that ash would investigate Robz and turn him out as scum. So he had to die, just to eliminate that risk! But the same logic works here as well for yuma. there was a chance that yuma would be investigated by ash and found out as scum, so ash had to die to eliminate that risk.

claims: why claim so early though, in D2? Maquis!robz derails a lynch which he, as maquis, is fine with! why?? I don't think the towncred is worth it. You just claimed what you knew wouldn't be counterclaimed, when everyone else was claiming too.

N4: we knew ash was going to investigate me.  maquis!robz doesn't want me to be cleared really badly. Maquis!Yuma doesn't mind since he was against the lynch anyway. You could have potentially sent the kill to Jtotheonah too I guess...

N5: It isn't just that ashersky has a townread on robz. It's that I also had a scumread on robz. scum!yuma need to get a lynch through D6. The easiest lynch is robz. So kill the person who supports him, and leave the person who is against him. You have a point about reads changing overnight.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2918 on: March 02, 2013, 12:17:56 pm »

oh, and scum!yuma makes the teams much more balanced then Scum!robz
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2919 on: March 02, 2013, 12:32:48 pm »

I don't think robz can be maquis because of his D2 claim, the lack of a second NK N4, and even the fact that ash died, not me, N5. Also his certainty that I was scum.

well then how do you explain those same things with me? Except for the thinking you were scum, which I did not yesterday.

Does my claim fit being a Maquis? Does my not killing N4 explain being a Maquis? How does ash dying instead of me explain being a Maquis?

Let me explain. I am going to try and take a neutral standpoint here...

Robz claim as 1-shot tracker as Maquis is a better scum claim than 1-shot LR I believe.

Not killing night 4.... In both scenarios it is weird, because it leaves alive the Maquis cop longer than necessary. We can hypothesize that theorel was killed by mcmc (or his partner if he has one, but if that is true then there isn't a Maquis) so for this purpose we can assume it was mcmc. Both yuma and Robz could have done it to make it look like there wasn't a Maquis around. Because ash would be the logical kill for both teams. So I don't know if either player gets an advantage here.

Killing ash N5 instead of you. It has been repeatedly said by Robz--and now apparently by you--that Robz as Maquis wouldn't want to kill ash because ash had a townread on him. I kinda agree on this, but I still think that it would be uber risky to not kill ash. Why? Because reads can change very rapidly overnight. A reread can change everything and Robz wouldn't know who ash was going to investigate. The was always the possiblity that ash would investigate Robz and turn him out as scum. So he had to die, just to eliminate that risk! But the same logic works here as well for yuma. there was a chance that yuma would be investigated by ash and found out as scum, so ash had to die to eliminate that risk.

claims: why claim so early though, in D2? Maquis!robz derails a lynch which he, as maquis, is fine with! why?? I don't think the towncred is worth it. You just claimed what you knew wouldn't be counterclaimed, when everyone else was claiming too.

N4: we knew ash was going to investigate me.  maquis!robz doesn't want me to be cleared really badly. Maquis!Yuma doesn't mind since he was against the lynch anyway. You could have potentially sent the kill to Jtotheonah too I guess...

N5: It isn't just that ashersky has a townread on robz. It's that I also had a scumread on robz. scum!yuma need to get a lynch through D6. The easiest lynch is robz. So kill the person who supports him, and leave the person who is against him. You have a point about reads changing overnight.

ok these are fair points... but just a few things.

Point 1: If Robz is actually a Maquis tracker then he very well could have tracked mcmc hoping that he was a cop, but when he tracked him, he got no result? So when mcmcm comes up for a lynch, Robz does what is townie--because that is how scum likes to operate, they like to appear townie--and says that he tracked mcmc and he didn't do anything. Not only does it give him some towncred, but it also prevents trouble down the road. Let's say that Robz didn't say anything and mcmc gets lynched.... fast forward to day4 and we are mass claiming. Robz claims that he is a 1-shot tracker. But who did he track? Ummm... He can't say mcmc night1 cause then we would all be like, "well then why didn't you say something!" so he has to lie... and that is a possible time for him to be caught in a lie... "well, I tracked ash night1!" Lie! he must be scum.... do you understand what I am getting at?

Point 2: I am not sure what you are getting at here... If Robz is maquis, he would have performed a NK, if I was maquis I would have performed a nk. But there wasn't another one kill beside theorel. So I don't see the advantage pointing toward anyone here.

Point 3: Nothing really to add except to say that in kinda a similar situation in MVIII I was a 2-shot Vig. I went into night with very, very solid reads on Robz being scum. But some rereads flipped my reads completely and I ended up shooting our IC instead. I know how a night can change everything how you feel about a game, and so does Robz.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2920 on: March 02, 2013, 12:36:16 pm »

he's sure to have someone to say he tracked... like munch or something!
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2921 on: March 02, 2013, 12:38:27 pm »

on the copping thing I posted this a while back:

Quote
this seems like a crucial point for you, one significant enough for you to overlook the very obvious play of preventing the lynch of a confirmed scum! But I guess my question is why am I more likely to kill ashersky N5? Is it because Robz keeps saying that he would coast to a victory as scum if he hadn't killed ash? Because I feel like both Jimmmm and I have documented a scenario--that correlates with our scenario in which he is mcmc's partner and saved him day2--in which it was favorable for Robz to kill asherksy, which I don't feel like you have ever responded to.

Here is another point that I don't think has been analyzed. Who do you think ashersky was most likely to investigate last night? There are three options... 1. Jimmmm--with the intent of either finding scum or making him an IC. 2. Robz--but not because of the mcmc thing but because ash is a Maquis cop and can't look for robz to be MU. 3. yuma--who ash was voting for the day before. I would wager that in this scenario ash would most likely investigate yuma. Do you agree?

So in this scenario MU!yuma doesn't want to NK ashersky because ash will likely investigate MU!yuma and give him 1/2 IC status.

If you disagree and think ash was more likely to investigate either Robz or Jimmmm then I suppose this last point is a bit moot.

Does that make sense?

with the main question being who do we think ash was going to investigate last night. I think the answer would be yuma. As a result... why would MU!yuma kill the one person that could give him 1/2 IC status? But the same point applies to Robz. Why would he kill the one person that could give him 1/2 IC status. But this has already been answered. If Robz is MU, then he knows that people are going to be suspicious of him over the Mcmc tracking thing. Therefor he needs to deflect. and the best way to do that is to make it look like there isn't MU, but Maquis instead... and the best way to do that is to kill the Maquis cop in ash.

But like I said in posts above, it is hard to know what someone is going to do during the night as reads can change.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2922 on: March 02, 2013, 12:41:36 pm »

he's sure to have someone to say he tracked... like munch or something!

sure... but once or if themunch is revealed as scum... does that point the finger at robz? I don't know. All I know that is if I were scum!tracker and someone I had tracked came up for a lynch I would stop the lynch. 1. for town cred and 2. because lying as scum is just bad in any situation if it can be avoided 3. because it would also likely prevent myself from being NKed following nights. (this last part is actually kinda a big deal). In this game scum wanted to hit cops. So it would be good to have an opportunity to say Hey! I am a 1-shot tracker and used up my power, so now I am essentially a VT. (aka I am not a good target for a night kill). This is big in a game with other mafia factions as we have seen as two mafia have been targeted by the opposing scum team.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2923 on: March 02, 2013, 03:01:27 pm »

I think ash was going to investigate Jimmmmmm. I feel like we decided that... maybe not
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #2924 on: March 02, 2013, 04:13:34 pm »

I'm here but about to leave for work again. Been super busy. I do not agree with a yuma lynch at this point in time.
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