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[AHoppy]

Also, faust is willing to put himself all out there without considering no-lynch.  If we're at MYLO with cops remaining, we should totally no-lynch.  I'm suprised nobody has suggested this thus far...

If we No Lynch, and the scum kill is successful, town is end-gamed. No Lynching is tantamount to deciding that the Doctors (if there are Doctors with protective shots left) have a better chance of picking the scum night kill (1/6) then we do of lynching scum (3/6). So I don't see why we would No Lynch. That has to be more likely we lose, right?

Oh... I guess that makes sense.  Never mind then.  I never really got how the endgame worked.  So this really isn't MYLO then, it's more LYLO...

And I'm a doc

[faust]

Not a whole lot happened here, and I thought what happened would be enough to spark discussion... oh well, I'll just continue my pps reread. Here's D2:

- leans scum on Robz and town on yuma after their fight, and reactswith a joke when Jimmmmm call a scumteam including him and TA
- starts thinking about an AHoppy lynch after I point out how weird it is that he wasn't lynched
- his theory that either all scum were on AHoppy or all off seems really fishy
- fights with Jimmmmm, who we know to be town now (and who was killed last night!)
- after some exchange, he unvotes and says he is interested to hear Jimmmmm's case on him
- agrees with me that we should lynch one of Robz, yuma, AHoppy
- Jimmmmm's case on pps
- the Jimmmmm/pps fight continues thereafter, mostly Jimmmmm is attacking pps for thinking AHoppy is scum
- this post looks like preparing his late claim
- TA's first reaction to pps' claim looks very much like he knew it was coming
- pps think he has breadcrumbed this investigation very well. Exactly. And why would town do that, again?
- suddenly jumps me when yuma points out some contradiction in my posts
- has a strong town read out of nowhere on yuma (who is defending his claim). Some time before, he wanted to lynch yuma
- defends his breadcrumbing, basically saying he was not paying attention, which I find hard to believe
- votes Archetype to "see how the wagon builds", and never changes his vote until the end of the Day

And that's D2 for you. I think really a lot of scummy stuff happened there, but if someone can come up with a convincing town narrative... I know I'm already somewhat biased.

[sudgy]

Vote Count 4.1

faust (1): Twistedarcher

Not Voting (6): AHoppy, Robz888, Archetype, faust, scott_pilgrim, pingpongsam

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 4 ends February 28th, 4:00 PM.

[Robz888]

Okay well this is weird. I don't think I've ever played in a game where people went like a whole day without posting anything while we were in MYLO. And this is not the first time everyone has just checked out during this game. We are suffering a serial lurking problem, and I think it's fair to ask: Why? Why such an uncharacteristically high amount of lurking.

My two propositions would be that scum has to be some imbalanced mix, like, either 1) All the lurkers are scum, and it's giving us less to talk about than usual, consequently we are quiet, or 2) Town are all lurkers, and thus are not picking it up on normally scummy things and commenting on them

So, if (1) were true, perhaps the scumteam is as easy as Ahoppy, Archetype, Scotty. If (2) were true, then PPS, TA, faust.

PPS, TA, faust is not a very likely scum team given certain events... or at least I think faust AND TA are not likely scum together. So I'm liking the other scenario better.

I mean, of course there's nothing to say that scum couldn't be, like, PPS, TA, Ahoppy, but then all the lurking is just some freak naturally occurring phenomena?

[Robz888]

On another note, TA has technically made it possible for scum to quick hammer, if it is the case that neither TA nor faust is scum.

So, either one of these things has to be true: (1) Either TA or faust is scum, (2) scum have no been all around at the same time to quickhammer, or are not confident that they could pull it off. This too would point to mafia lurkers.

So everything kind of points me to an Ahoppy or scotty lynch, basically.

[Twistedarcher]

On another note, TA has technically made it possible for scum to quick hammer, if it is the case that neither TA nor faust is scum.

So, either one of these things has to be true: (1) Either TA or faust is scum, (2) scum have no been all around at the same time to quickhammer, or are not confident that they could pull it off. This too would point to mafia lurkers.

So everything kind of points me to an Ahoppy or scotty lynch, basically.

What makes you think it's #2 and not #1?

I know my personal lurkiness is due to the fact that I don't find mafia as much fun as I previously did, and am burned out on it -- not sure why it's happening to everyone this game, though.

[Robz888]

On another note, TA has technically made it possible for scum to quick hammer, if it is the case that neither TA nor faust is scum.

So, either one of these things has to be true: (1) Either TA or faust is scum, (2) scum have no been all around at the same time to quickhammer, or are not confident that they could pull it off. This too would point to mafia lurkers.

So everything kind of points me to an Ahoppy or scotty lynch, basically.

What makes you think it's #2 and not #1?

I know my personal lurkiness is due to the fact that I don't find mafia as much fun as I previously did, and am burned out on it -- not sure why it's happening to everyone this game, though.

Nothing, but even in scenario #1, there would be nothing to preclude 1 or 2 of the lurkers being scum alongside faust or you. Thus my conclusion.

[scott_pilgrim]

I've been thinking about TA's case on faust and I'm actually starting to think it makes a lot of sense.  In fact, I could see both faust and PPS being scum.  They know the cop/doc split is 5/5, faust claims cop so that the last cop (me) will claim, they know who to NK or set up for a mislynch, and they don't have to deal with anymore cops.  And then faust can easily claim cop results on someone later, with no cops around to counterclaim.  OTOH, faust has looks like he is planning to vote PPS, which I would not expect if they are scum buddies.  Either way I still feel more confident in a PPS lynch today.  I won't vote now but I can't see myself being convinced that PPS is town.  Out of the three possibilities, (1) PPS is scum and faust is town, (2) PPS is town and faust is scum, and (3) both are scum, (2) seems by far the least likely.

[Twistedarcher]

My case's conclusion is that Faust is scum setting up town PPS, scott.

[Twistedarcher]

But I guess your point of view will lead to a different conclusion, given that I think you're much more likely Faust's partner than PPS is..

[faust]

TA, if you believe in a setup by scott and me, answer this:

The purpose of such a setup would obviously be to make this Day a decision between pps and me. If this is what scum!me would want to achieve, why would I not just claim a guilty result on pps? Why pull scott into this?

[faust]

Also TA, why are you still voting for me?

[pingpongsam]

I have stated my reads. There's no new information coming along that changes those reads. I am happy to post but it really feels like everyone has run out of questions for me to respond to. I've not seen any remaining player get anywhere near as much questioning and probing as I have. Thus, I don't feel there is much more that I can contribute to the game at this point. Without anyone else posting the only contributions I could make would be likely dead-ended theory like, "Why was Jimmmmm the NK target?"

[faust]

pps, I don't feel that you've stated your reads. The last I've heard from you was that there was a liar between me and scotty, but you never specified (I think) which one of us you think is lying.

[pingpongsam]

pps, I don't feel that you've stated your reads. The last I've heard from you was that there was a liar between me and scotty, but you never specified (I think) which one of us you think is lying.

You are correct that I have not reiterated my reads from D3.

Here they are, reiterated:

Refined Reads list:

Scummy:
AHoppy
Archetype
Scotty

Null to slight scum:
Robz
chairs

Null to slight town:
faust
Jimmmmm

confTown:
TA/pps

Like I said, nothing new has come along EXCEPT the fact that there must be a liar amongst (not necessarily between) faust and scotty. Looking at my reads list as it stands I suppose I would have to say scotty is the one I would vote between the two of you. I still prefer an AHoppy or Archetype lynch based on what I perceive a stronger likelihood of hitting scum.

[faust]

I've been thinking about TA's case on faust and I'm actually starting to think it makes a lot of sense.  In fact, I could see both faust and PPS being scum.  They know the cop/doc split is 5/5, faust claims cop so that the last cop (me) will claim, they know who to NK or set up for a mislynch, and they don't have to deal with anymore cops.  And then faust can easily claim cop results on someone later, with no cops around to counterclaim.  OTOH, faust has looks like he is planning to vote PPS, which I would not expect if they are scum buddies.  Either way I still feel more confident in a PPS lynch today.  I won't vote now but I can't see myself being convinced that PPS is town.  Out of the three possibilities, (1) PPS is scum and faust is town, (2) PPS is town and faust is scum, and (3) both are scum, (2) seems by far the least likely.

Your post assumes that scum would make some long-term plans here to eliminate Cops. I don't think that's the case. Instead, they will try to end this game and win today. Every flipped scum only increases the likelihood for us to catch the rest of them.

[faust]

Like I said, nothing new has come along EXCEPT the fact that there must be a liar amongst (not necessarily between) faust and scotty. Looking at my reads list as it stands I suppose I would have to say scotty is the one I would vote between the two of you. I still prefer an AHoppy or Archetype lynch based on what I perceive a stronger likelihood of hitting scum.

What has come up is for me: a liar must be among you and scotty, for you: a liar must be between me and scotty.

For most of the rest, a liar must be among us three. You put remarkably little effort into convincing us that you're not the one who's lying. Instead, you try to distract from the whole situation.

[pingpongsam]

Like I said, nothing new has come along EXCEPT the fact that there must be a liar amongst (not necessarily between) faust and scotty. Looking at my reads list as it stands I suppose I would have to say scotty is the one I would vote between the two of you. I still prefer an AHoppy or Archetype lynch based on what I perceive a stronger likelihood of hitting scum.

What has come up is for me: a liar must be among you and scotty, for you: a liar must be between me and scotty.

For most of the rest, a liar must be among us three. You put remarkably little effort into convincing us that you're not the one who's lying. Instead, you try to distract from the whole situation.

Hmmm, I'm not entirely sure I follow. The goal for today is to hit scum. We ostensibly have a 50% chance of doing so if we flip a coin and lynch either you or scotty. Those are decent odds. If I follow my reads I would omit the coin and just vote scotty. But then, that means my reads have some statistical weight and if I am going to assign weight to my reads I feel there is an even better likelihood of hitting scum by lynching either AHoppy or Archetype.

I'm not exactly sure how it is I am supposed to convince anyone I am not lying. I suppose I could turn the same allegation over to you. What is your convincing argument for how it is we can know you are not lying? If you are who you say you are then protecting the information of which night you are cop is important. If you are scum then saying ti is best to not reveal what night you are is also important. It's a catch-22 all around. Also, IINM, it is possible that both you and scotty are lying about being cops; that our Doc ratio is in actuality higher. Thus, I believe it is disingenuous to try to force everyone's minds into choosing between you and scotty as if one of you must be Town. Of course, if that is the case, then it doesn't matter if we choose one over the other, the outcome is the same.

We know there are 3 scum, if as I believe AHoppy is one of those scum then I see a strong likelihood that scotty is also scum. Other than the claim conundrum I see very little to indicate faust is scum which in and off itself makes me wary but I lean towards high paranoia.

[faust]

On another note, TA has technically made it possible for scum to quick hammer, if it is the case that neither TA nor faust is scum.

So, either one of these things has to be true: (1) Either TA or faust is scum, (2) scum have no been all around at the same time to quickhammer, or are not confident that they could pull it off. This too would point to mafia lurkers.

So everything kind of points me to an Ahoppy or scotty lynch, basically.

For (2), it is enough that one of the remaining scum is a lurker. Pulling a quickhammer with three votes is extremely dangerous. TA just has to be online some time in between and unvote, and the scum team is caught. And why are dismissing (1)? (well, good that you think I'm not scum, I guess) Because of a day of lurking? I don't think that you can pull any conclusions about the scum team from that, like you did.

So basically, I don't see any convincing argument in this. Why should we lynch AHoppy/scotty? Instead, you're distracting from the TA/pps situation as well.

[faust]

In your next post, please everyone who hasn't done so already state who of (pps, scotty, me) you think is most likely scum.

[Robz888]

On another note, TA has technically made it possible for scum to quick hammer, if it is the case that neither TA nor faust is scum.

So, either one of these things has to be true: (1) Either TA or faust is scum, (2) scum have no been all around at the same time to quickhammer, or are not confident that they could pull it off. This too would point to mafia lurkers.

So everything kind of points me to an Ahoppy or scotty lynch, basically.

For (2), it is enough that one of the remaining scum is a lurker. Pulling a quickhammer with three votes is extremely dangerous. TA just has to be online some time in between and unvote, and the scum team is caught. And why are dismissing (1)? (well, good that you think I'm not scum, I guess) Because of a day of lurking? I don't think that you can pull any conclusions about the scum team from that, like you did.

So basically, I don't see any convincing argument in this. Why should we lynch AHoppy/scotty? Instead, you're distracting from the TA/pps situation as well.

I did not dismiss (1), I was only saying that even if we are in situation (1), there are still probably lurker scum.

[Robz888]

In your next post, please everyone who hasn't done so already state who of (pps, scotty, me) you think is most likely scum.

I really don't know, sorry. I really would have said it's not you, it's either PPS or scotty. Now I'm getting a bad feeling.

But again, if just 1 of PPS, scotty, and faust is scum, why are we looking here? When there wold have to be 2 scum among TA, Arch, Ahoppy, or Scotty? (And we can sort of omit TA).

I feel like everyone--unwittingly, purposefully?--is covering for the lurkers. And some of that mafia covering for lazy partners.

[Robz888]

And some of that is mafia covering for lazy partners.

[Robz888]

Like, is there anyone here who doesn't think at least 1 of Ahoppy, Scotty, and Arch are scum?

[scott_pilgrim]

My case's conclusion is that Faust is scum setting up town PPS, scott.

Well as I understood it your conclusion was really that faust is scum, either letting me (scum) fakeclaim, or getting the last town cop (me) to claim.  Since I know it's not the former I'm looking at the latter case.  Your more general point was that town faust is taking a very risky move by claiming at that time, which is what I was agreeing with.

Your post assumes that scum would make some long-term plans here to eliminate Cops. I don't think that's the case. Instead, they will try to end this game and win today. Every flipped scum only increases the likelihood for us to catch the rest of them.

You're probably right, though maybe they could still be setting up for a mislynch on a cop who claims.  Though that probably does more harm than good (for you), since if people are going to lynch a claimed cop in that scenario, they would be more likely to hit scum than not (and more likely to hit scum than if they just lynched a random person).