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[Twistedarcher]

Right, but just because 50% of the wagon, or even more, is town, doesn't mean that it's on a town member. Scum aren't going to commit all 3 members to one viewpoint, usually (and yes, WIFOM, scum could be doing this, but whatever), so it's very possible there were 1-2 scum on his wagon. I think using that information to conclude that Ahoppy is town is making a large leap.

If you think Eevee's wagon was scum, who do you think the scum on the wagon are? Keep in mind that probably the biggest pushers of the wagon were myself and Yuma (although Yuma was hesistant about it). Who on Eevee's wagon do you think is scum?

You got my vote because you're making large assumptions based on what I see as large jumps in logic. Maybe I should back up though, since I found Teproc scummy for doing that D1...

[Twistedarcher]

Jimmm and Faust are both much higher on my scum lists now than they were before.

[Twistedarcher]

Let's set a soft deadline. Does next Tuesday work for everyone? I don't want this to get to the end of the day, given that basically our only active player (Yuma) is dead, and it will be much harder to push for a lynch without him.

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmm and Faust are both much higher on my scum lists now than they were before.

Why?

[scott_pilgrim]

I don't understand why we would massclaim.  We help our docs figure out to target, but we also help mafia figure out who to target, so that's more of a benefit to them than to us.  (And if it wasn't, then it would be better for them to choose randomly whether to kill doc or cop, which means we don't get the benefit for docs, so at best it's neutral.)  And forcing them to fakeclaim is like literally no advantage to us.  They know the split, they can just claim whatever makes it most even so we don't even get that information.  If they claim cop and never give us results, they can just say they're N5 or N6 or whatever, by which point they will probably claim cop with results anyway.  I guess it limits their options if they fakeclaim doc?  That's just such a small benefit though, for putting our cops in such a vulnerable position.  Is there something I'm missing?

Also, vote: pingpongsam, for the reasons I talked about yesterday, though I feel much less strongly about them now than I did then.  I'm also wondering about Archetype being "unbelievably confused why Eevee wasn't scum".  That just sounds like a huge overstatement.  Like, even yesterday when I was pushing my case on PPS and voting for him if he had flipped town I would have been surprised but I wouldn't have been "unbelievably confused".

[pingpongsam]

I find it rich that scotty comes in and espouses exactly the same theory I posted about massclaiming and then votes me. I'm not saying it's scummy, just an interesting observation. Now, where scotty votes as well as where his votes at the end of the day land I find quite scummy.

If there are scum in Jimmmmm/faust I'd pick faust ahead of Jimmmmm.

I'm still thinking there was likely scum in yuma/Robz and we can see half of that resolved.

I'm also find AHoppy suspect for his behavior yesterday which is plausibly deniable (as he denied).

Finally, I have no reason to believe Archetype is town.

So, yeah, the only people I wouldn't lynch are myself and TA and I'd need some convincing on Jimmmmm.

[faust]

Right, but just because 50% of the wagon, or even more, is town, doesn't mean that it's on a town member. Scum aren't going to commit all 3 members to one viewpoint, usually (and yes, WIFOM, scum could be doing this, but whatever), so it's very possible there were 1-2 scum on his wagon. I think using that information to conclude that Ahoppy is town is making a large leap.

I am not saying AHoppy is town. I am saying he is scum. And that's of course not my sole reason for thinking he is scum, I had a scum read before. Only the data fits my feeling.

If you think Eevee's wagon was scum, who do you think the scum on the wagon are? Keep in mind that probably the biggest pushers of the wagon were myself and Yuma (although Yuma was hesistant about it). Who on Eevee's wagon do you think is scum?

I'm looking at Jimmmmm and Archetype for scum there. The biggest pushers of a wagon are often not the scum members of the wagon.

You got my vote because you're making large assumptions based on what I see as large jumps in logic. Maybe I should back up though, since I found Teproc scummy for doing that D1...

Maybe you should. All I've done is some vote analysis. Do you think looking at player's votes is completely without merit?

[faust]

I find it rich that scotty comes in and espouses exactly the same theory I posted about massclaiming and then votes me. I'm not saying it's scummy, just an interesting observation. Now, where scotty votes as well as where his votes at the end of the day land I find quite scummy.

If there are scum in Jimmmmm/faust I'd pick faust ahead of Jimmmmm.

I'm still thinking there was likely scum in yuma/Robz and we can see half of that resolved.

I'm also find AHoppy suspect for his behavior yesterday which is plausibly deniable (as he denied).

Finally, I have no reason to believe Archetype is town.

So, yeah, the only people I wouldn't lynch are myself and TA and I'd need some convincing on Jimmmmm.

Well, it's not like the whole town except you two is scum, so you'll have to think about which of all these players that you find scummy you find the least scummy.

[faust]

Jimmm and Faust are both much higher on my scum lists now than they were before.

Why?

[faust]

If it wasn't for my town read on pps, I would be inclined to believe that TA is scum right now.

[Jimmmmm]

If it wasn't for my town read on pps, I would be inclined to believe that TA is scum right now.

How likely do you think it is that if pps and TA were both scum, pps would invent a result on TA?

[pingpongsam]

I find it rich that scotty comes in and espouses exactly the same theory I posted about massclaiming and then votes me. I'm not saying it's scummy, just an interesting observation. Now, where scotty votes as well as where his votes at the end of the day land I find quite scummy.

If there are scum in Jimmmmm/faust I'd pick faust ahead of Jimmmmm.

I'm still thinking there was likely scum in yuma/Robz and we can see half of that resolved.

I'm also find AHoppy suspect for his behavior yesterday which is plausibly deniable (as he denied).

Finally, I have no reason to believe Archetype is town.

So, yeah, the only people I wouldn't lynch are myself and TA and I'd need some convincing on Jimmmmm.

Well, it's not like the whole town except you two is scum, so you'll have to think about which of all these players that you find scummy you find the least scummy.

Oh, yeah, that list is ordered from stronger scum read to slight scum read.

So:

Scott
Faust
Robz
AHoppy
Archetype

Good thing I jst did that because I realized I was missing someone and had to check the roster. chairs!, wtf, that guy I just do not know, what a lurker. Imma go read up on chairs today and fit him in the list although I might find him towny?

[faust]

pps, what is your scum read on me based upon?

[faust]

If it wasn't for my town read on pps, I would be inclined to believe that TA is scum right now.

How likely do you think it is that if pps and TA were both scum, pps would invent a result on TA?

100%. If pps and TA were both scum, pps obviously invented a result on TA.

... something tells me this was not the answer you were looking for.

I think pps was under pressure when he claimed (at L-2). So, he would want to claim something. What does scum do? A) claim to have investigated town for towncred from that particular townie. B) Claim to have investigated your partner to have him get towncred.

Now, I'm used to pretty bold play by scum!pps (see his claim in RMM12), so I can easily imagine him taking the riskier, but more rewarding option B. I'd say scum!pps is more likely to claim a result on fellow scum than on town.

[pingpongsam]

pps, what is your scum read on me based upon?

My top 3 scum flags:
D1: All of your votes were either on me, yuma or Teproc. 2/3 of that group are confirmed Town. 3/3 are known Town for me.
D2: Immediately moved to lynch PPS for claiming cop with a terrible argument for doing so.
D3: Supports massclaims with relatively weak arguments.

I'm not getting screaming scum from you but then knowing you to be a strong player I don't think I would. The biggest obstacle to seeing you as scum is not being able to find much of anything that indicates you are partnered with anyone else. I think evidence of partnering should be visible at this stage of the game.

[faust]

pps, what is your scum read on me based upon?

My top 3 scum flags:
D1: All of your votes were either on me, yuma or Teproc. 2/3 of that group are confirmed Town. 3/3 are known Town for me.

That's not completely correct, I also voted chairs. But I get your point. Only the question is would scum!me kill yuma knowing that it will lead to this kind of suspicion? Well maybe, he's a strong player that scum might want out of the game. You should keep in mind though that these were D1 votes which don't tell very much.

D2: Immediately moved to lynch PPS for claiming cop with a terrible argument for doing so.

Yes, my argument was quite bad. Though, in retrospect, you have to agree that for town, lynching you would have been better than lynching Eevee. So why would scum!me try to push your lynch instead?

D3: Supports massclaims with relatively weak arguments.

I'm not a super strong proponent of massclaims. I'd like them, but don't think they are the key to win this game.

[pingpongsam]

I think all of your arguments are fair and valid and are representative of why I have no outstanding vote right now.

[Robz888]

If it wasn't for my town read on pps, I would be inclined to believe that TA is scum right now.

How likely do you think it is that if pps and TA were both scum, pps would invent a result on TA?

100%. If pps and TA were both scum, pps obviously invented a result on TA.

... something tells me this was not the answer you were looking for.

I think pps was under pressure when he claimed (at L-2). So, he would want to claim something. What does scum do? A) claim to have investigated town for towncred from that particular townie. B) Claim to have investigated your partner to have him get towncred.

Now, I'm used to pretty bold play by scum!pps (see his claim in RMM12), so I can easily imagine him taking the riskier, but more rewarding option B. I'd say scum!pps is more likely to claim a result on fellow scum than on town.

I agree--big time--with faust here. A couple things about TA have already struck me as off:

Well I was thinking Yuma was scum going into today. Weird. Need to reevaluate the end of days now..

I don't want this to get to the end of the day, given that basically our only active player (Yuma) is dead, and it will be much harder to push for a lynch without him.

These statements always strike me as scummy, even though there is nothing technically wrong with them. It just demonstrates someone doing a lot of  thinking about who was leading the town, possibly during the night and the nightkill was being chosen.

Now, we have PPS's result, so obviously we will not lynch TA under any circumstances. But yea, as faust says, I think most people fake claiming cop would fake claim a town result on a townie in that situation, but PPS is actually someone who might do the bolder thing.

I'm more likely to want to lynch PPS then, I guess.

[Robz888]

Also, a PPS lynch maximizes our chances of leaving our remaining cops and docs alive. We know he is scum, or used up. Obviously lynching scum is way more important than conserving PRs, but it would be a minor thing in favor of lynching him.

[Robz888]

And the more I've thought about it the more completely and totally opposed I am to massclaim today.

[Jimmmmm]

Here's a point in favour of claiming Today: It may be reasonably unlikely, but it's possible we could have no Cops left by Tomorrow. If that happens, scum will almost certainly all claim Doc, and we'll lose all PoE benefits of massclaiming.

[chairs]

I'm in favor of voting PPS here.

At work, so not going to vote until I can check vote counts.

[Twistedarcher]

Robz, those really strike you as odd? Look at it from my point of view:

At the end of the days, the only person truly active and pushing for a lynch was Yuma. Basically, between myself and Yuma, we decided to lynch Teproc over Ahoppy, and Eevee over Archetype. If we had switched, we could have potentially lynched town.

The fact that we lynched town twice made me very wary that I was being manipulated by scum Yuma, and potentially Ahoppy and Archetype are scum. Now that I know yuma is town, though, I'm less suspicious of Ahoppy and Archetype than before -- I'm not saying they are town, but if they are scum, there was very, very, very little activity by scum to push the lynch towards Teproc/Eevee. Which is a little odd -- in a toss-up situation, I'd expect scum to actually try a little to save their teammate. Maybe Scott did this a little at the end of D2 with Archetype -- if Arch is scum, I'd have a much higher scum read on Scott.

I thought that I was pretty sure who scum was, if Yuma was town, and now I'm probably wrong on that. Which is disorienting. I thought that since I was wrong, it was more likely I was being misled by Yuma, but now I know that isn't true.

This ups my suspicion of other members of the game who haven't had much attention yet -- the two most notable in my mind being Jimmmmm and Faust.

[Twistedarcher]

Here's a point in favour of claiming Today: It may be reasonably unlikely, but it's possible we could have no Cops left by Tomorrow. If that happens, scum will almost certainly all claim Doc, and we'll lose all PoE benefits of massclaiming.

Once again, what PoE benefits of massclaiming are there? I just can't envision a scenario where we see "Ok, we have 2 claimed cops and 7 claimed doctors, we now have a much better chance of finding out where scum is". Until someone provides me with a convincing argument as to how massclaiming can help us narrow down scum, I won't support it.

[Twistedarcher]

I would like any cops with N2 results to come forward immediately.

Holding onto results can be nice, but I feel that the possibilities of a scum fake claim make holding onto a claim more confusing than helpful. We need to be able to analyze the truth of any claim, and the sooner that claim comes out, the easier that will be to do.