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[faust]

Well that sucks.

3 Cops down means we have 1 Cop and 5 Docs left, or 2/4 or 3/3, plus 3 scum. So mislynching Today means Tomorrow will be lylo.

We may want to think about whether a full Cop/Doc claim is in order Today. We need to lynch scum.

Yes, I think that we need to claim Doc or Cop. TA should determine the order in which we claim. Of course nobody should claim their night.

[faust]

Updated data post:

D1 voting patterns:

Jimmmmm: Eevee(1,RVS), Archetype(1), Eevee(4), AHoppy(5), Teproc(7)
faust: yuma(1), pps(1), No Lynch(1), pps(2), No Lynch(3), Teproc(1), chairs(2), Teproc(2)
pingpongsam: Robz(1,RVS), AHoppy(3), Robz(3), AHoppy(5)
Voltaire: scott(1,RVS), chairs(1), pps(3), AHoppy(1), Archetype(1), AHoppy(4), Robz(2), Teproc(4)
yuma: faust(1), No Lynch(2), Robz(3), Eevee(3), AHoppy(6), Robz(1), Teproc(2), Teproc(6)
Archetype: nkirbit/Teproc(1,RVS), chairs(1), Eevee(2), Robz(4), Eevee(3), Teproc(6)
Eevee: TA(1), Teproc(3)
Twistedarcher: pps(2), yuma(1), Eevee(1)
Teproc: yuma(2), chairs(2), Jimmmmm(1), AHoppy(4)
scott_pilgrim: No Lynch(2), TA(3), AHoppy(5), Teproc(5)
AHoppy: Robz(2), chairs(2), Teproc(5)
chairs: TA(2), AHoppy(2), yuma(1), AHoppy(4)
Robz: chairs(1), Teproc(1), AHoppy(5)

AHoppy wagon at peak (1): chairs, scott, Teproc, yuma, Voltaire, pps (Robz intent)
Robz wagon at peak: yuma, Archetype, Voltaire, pps
AHoppy wagon at peak (2): Robz, chairs, scott, Teproc, pps
Teproc wagon at peak: faust, Eevee, Voltaire, scott_pilgrim, Archetype, AHoppy, yuma
Eevee wagon at peak: Twistedarcher, Archetype, yuma, Jimmmmm

D2 voting patterns:

Twistedarcher: Eevee(1)
Jimmmmm: Eevee(2), pps(1), Eevee(4)
Robz: yuma(1), pps(4), chairs(1), Eevee(5)
yuma: Robz(1), TA(1), Eevee(2)
Archetype: Eevee(3), scotty(1), pps(3), Eevee(3)
faust: Robz(2), AHoppy(1), pps(5), Archetype(2)
pingpongsam: Jimmmmm(1), AHoppy(1), faust(1), Archetype(3)
chairs: yuma(2), Archetype(4)
Eevee: Archetype(1), yuma(1), Archetype(1)
AHoppy: pps(2)
scott_pilgrim: Jimmmmm(2), pps(4), Eevee(6)

pps wagon at peak: Jimmmmm, AHoppy, Archetype, Robz, faust
Archetype wagon at peak: Eevee, faust, pps, chairs
Eevee wagon at peak: TA, yuma, Archetype, Jimmmmm, Robz, scott

# of times voted for confirmed town/# of total votes:

Twistedarcher: 3/4=75%
Jimmmmm:       4/7=57%
Robz:              3/7=43%
Archetype:      5/9=56%
faust:             3/10=30%
pps:               0/7=0%
chairs:            2/6=33%
AHoppy:          1/4=25%
scott:             2/6=33%

[faust]

Interesting things:

- pps seems to have crazily good reads
- the AHoppy wagon seems very town-driven, as does the Robz wagon
- suspect scum on both Eevee wagons
- I don't like Archetype's voting pattern at all
- TA has voted for town often, but always as the first vote
- no confirmed town on pps may well mean a scum-driven wagon

This makes me lean town on pps (and thus TA), and lean scum on AHoppy and Archetype.

[pingpongsam]

Interesting things:

- pps seems to have crazily good reads

Possibly more interesting; I voted for you.

[pingpongsam]

Interesting things:

- no confirmed town on pps may well mean a scum-driven wagon

Possibly more interesting; you were on both wagons.

[faust]

pps, if you want to say that I am scum, give me more than that. There are some other players that also match your criteria, why pick me?

[pingpongsam]

Well, I'm not so sure you are scum. Even your move to lynch my claim yesterday seems more Town than scum because scum should prefer the ambiguity. I'm really just responding to you not "picking you". I think it is important when putting out an analysis such as yours to consider where you yourself stand in it.

It should be noted that every vote on me yesterday was from someone I have voted though not necessarily in return for the vote on me. faust is the only living player who voted me both days who is not TA who I know to be Town.

Analyzing the pps wagons, I'll buy the scum reads on AHoppy and Archetype and a Town read on Jimmmmm but why the Town read on Robz?

When looking at where Robz ended up yesterday I also have to say I'm rather null on scotty.

[pingpongsam]

Actually when I look at where scotty votes and especially where he ends up each day I begin to lean scum!scotty.

[Twistedarcher]

Well I was thinking Yuma was scum going into today. Weird. Need to reevaluate the end of days now..

[Archetype]

I am so unbelievably confused why Eevee wasn't scum. I also think a massclaim would be helpful at this point.

[Robz888]

Uhh.... I'm not sure we should massclaim today. Well we should discuss it, yes, but you know we can still mislynch today. Massclaiming now gives scum better odds to hurt us by killing off potentially useful cops. And I think our chances really suffer if that happens. We kind of need our cops to come through at this point. I think.

[sudgy]

Vote Count 3.1

Not Voting (9): Jimmmmm, AHoppy, Robz888, Twistedarcher, Archetype, chairs, faust, scott_pilgrim, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends 12:00 AM February 21st.

[Jimmmmm]

Bump.

Yep, need to get this Day going.

I'll start:

I am so unbelievably confused why Eevee wasn't scum.

Seems like an overreaction. I've never been "unbelievably confused" at someone's flip, and don't think I would be unless it seemed to conflict with investigation results.

Vote: Archetype

[faust]

Fine then, let's get the Day going.

Vote: Archetype

Still think we should mass claim. TA needs to weigh in on this.

[Twistedarcher]

What does a massclaim accomplish other than outing our remaining cops to scum, exactly?

[Twistedarcher]

Faust, what crazily good reads of pps are you talking about, and why does that make you think he's town?

[Jimmmmm]

What does a massclaim accomplish other than outing our remaining cops to scum, exactly?

Forces scum to lie, gives us information about how they are distributed among us, makes it more likely we'll lynch correctly.

[Twistedarcher]

Interesting things:
- the AHoppy wagon seems very town-driven, as does the Robz wagon
- suspect scum on both Eevee wagons

Please explain these statements. Until you do, vote: Faust

[Twistedarcher]

What does a massclaim accomplish other than outing our remaining cops to scum, exactly?

Forces scum to lie, gives us information about how they are distributed among us, makes it more likely we'll lynch correctly.

I think scum are prepared for a mass claim, though. It's not as though they will scramble.

I would like any cops with town results to come forward now, rather than later.

[faust]

Faust, what crazily good reads of pps are you talking about, and why does that make you think he's town?

He's voted seven times, and never voted for one of the townies who died. Now that doesn't make me instantly believe he's town (though it points in that direction), but the wagon on him from D2 also looks like a scum wagon - it has some of my scum reads on it and no confirmed town (except me, but well, I'm only confirmed town to myself).

[faust]

What does a massclaim accomplish other than outing our remaining cops to scum, exactly?

Gives our Docs good targets. Forces scum to fakeclaim. Helps us POE scum.

[Twistedarcher]

What does a massclaim accomplish other than outing our remaining cops to scum, exactly?

 Helps us POE scum.

I don't think it does though. I'm running through scenarios in my head and I'm not getting how it helps. Could you illustrate an example massclaim where we are helped narrow down scum?

[pingpongsam]

Glad this discussion is going. I have been and still am predisposed but I've been considering what massclaims get us and I am on the fence about it. While I see the utility in giving the docs targets and giving the cops info to work on there's 2 major drawbacks. 1) Scum knows who best to target at night and even who to work over during the day and 2)Scum is forced to lie and the doctors don't know who is lying so their targets are easily misplaced if scum claims cop.

I'm not seeing the clear and present advantage to town of massclaims. I certainly have an unbiased look at it seeing as I have already shot and claimed. I think it is of absolute importance that the night of the claim not be included for what I hope are obvious reasons.

[pingpongsam]

Right, I meant to add that forcing scum to lie achieves nothing in particular I do not believe. Revealing the lie requires the exact same steps as needed without the claiming.

[faust]

Interesting things:
- the AHoppy wagon seems very town-driven, as does the Robz wagon
- suspect scum on both Eevee wagons

Please explain these statements. Until you do, vote: Faust

1. Of the 6 votes on AHoppy, three are confirmed town, one is a town read for me, and the other two I'm pretty null about.
2. Eevee was a possible lynch candidate throughout D1. Now we know that he was town. Doesn't it seem like scum was trying to push for a lynch here, and when it didn't quite get through, remained there for consistency? Add that almost noone of the confirmed townies voted for him.

Overall, I don't get how I deserved that vote.