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Author Topic: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (Mafia win flawlessly)  (Read 143574 times)

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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #950 on: January 27, 2014, 07:18:15 am »

Well, I reconsidered, and I think lynching Robz here won't be any good. We don't want to lose our stronger players, and at some point someone will hopefully investigate yuma/Robz anyway. Reading the end of D1, I find it strange how AHoppy behaves towards the wagons on him and Teproc. At that point, voting Teproc was simply a self-preservation move for him. Yet he says the reason for his vote is that he finds the Teproc case convincing. I could see scum at work here, thinking a self-preservation argument is dangerous. Plus, looking at that vote count, AHoppy is a low poster.

Vote: AHoppy


I also think knowing AHoppy's alignment will be of great help analyzing D1.
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #951 on: January 27, 2014, 07:23:35 am »

I think that someone with an investigation result should probably come out and claim now.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #952 on: January 27, 2014, 07:30:20 am »

This is like the one game I think ahoppy has been towny.

That being said, he has been town all the times I've thought he was scum.. Still, don't want to lynch him today.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #953 on: January 27, 2014, 07:31:13 am »

It is interesting how both scott and AHoppy start to post suddenly after being called out for not posting today...
This OTOH I do think is a legitimate strike against the scott and ahoppy.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #954 on: January 27, 2014, 08:45:18 am »

It is interesting how both scott and AHoppy start to post suddenly after being called out for not posting today...
This OTOH I do think is a legitimate strike against the scott and ahoppy.

This day opened way later than advertised so I missed the opening and then it was the weekend and I had a rough one. I'm not excusing scott or AHoppy but I am saying that if I can just now really participate then maybe it is the case for others as well.

I sense the Robz/yuma interaction to possibly be an attempt to increase post count while staying focused on a conundrum instead of actual deduction and hunting. In other words an effort to negate the legitimate complaint of lurking yesterday. Thus, I still prefer a Robz lynch as the yuma interaction has served to somewhat strengthen my convictions from yesterday.

The Eevee wagon interests me because of how it stalled yesterday and it seems to be picking up the same constituents today.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #955 on: January 27, 2014, 08:47:28 am »

No, what I found suspect is the fact the appeared right after being called out. You didn't until now, which seems more natural.

This is not a case by any means, as I said, a strike against them. Reading without posting is a scum trait.
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #956 on: January 27, 2014, 10:08:20 am »

1. I vote for you for LALL and leave it because better options come up.

First off, I have no idea what LALL stands for, I couldn't find it on mafiascum wiki or the mafia lingo thread, so I hope that doesn't change anything.  Okay, from re-reading the voting mayhem at the end of day 1, I was under the impression that by voting Robz, your intent was to demonstrate to him that, yes it is possible to start a wagon right now this late in the day.  When it gains momentum you say:

Good questions, here are my answers...

LALL means Lynch all lurkers, literally. So at that point Robz was a lurker which for me automatically means he is somewhat high on the scummy radar day1 just because of that and I would be ok lynching him (as I would with the other lurkers, you aside as you were a new player and I don't like to lynch new players on day1 for out of game reasons)

unvote that was fun and nice to serve a point, but I do prefer eevee, ahoppy and teproc over Robz...

The "serve a point" seems to be reference to the fact that Robz had stated it would be impossible to start a wagon this late.  Your switch is not "because better options come up".  Those options were already there, and in fact at the point of your unvote those options were weaker than they were before, since some of the people who had been voting them are now voting Robz.  You switched your vote because you had never intended to lynch Robz in the first place, but now you have said that your switch was because better options came up.

Yes I see what you are saying, but you are missing another quote from me that explains it:

:P I would not mind an actual Robz lynch but I guess we don't actually have enough people for that if yuma was lying? Eh.

I was never lying. My immediate response was to want to vote for Robz and I did, as is my want. My suspicion of him holds, but as I thought more about it I realized that my reaction was more visceral and less logical

So as I said, my first reaction was to vote robz because I found what he did to be scummy and was frustrated by his negative thinking--which I thought could be an excuse to hammer Ahoppy--enough so that I thought he became a better lynch candidate than ahoppy, eevee and teproc. But once I went back and rethought it, I felt it wasn't as strong as I thought originally and reverted back to where I was before wanting a lynch of one of the three.
Then we have this:

My suspicion of you was never extremely high, but enough to vote for you, especially as you had the largest wagon

Okay, so I'm still not under the impression from re-reading the end of D1 that your vote on him was because of your suspicion of him (though you are consistent with your saying that you had other targets you preferred), but that’s not my concern with this quote.  My concern is that I don't understand you saying he had the largest wagon.  Didn't you pretty much start that wagon?  There was very little mention of lynching Robz.  So you were the first one to really advocate lynching Robz, the wagon did not exist until you started it, and then you killed it by getting off when it started to pick up speed.  That is not at all consistent with how you describe it in the quote above.

Actually with the second one I don't know why you would get it wrong regardless of whether you're scum or town, so I don't know what that says, maybe I'm just not understanding something.  Still I would like to hear your explanation of those.

My first, LALL vote wasn't because I was very suspicious of him. It was because he was a lurker... it is hard to be suspicious of a lurker because they haven't posted anything--except to suspect them for lurking.

My second vote was because it was temporarily increased but like I said lessen once I started thinking... so if I graphed it... it would be a very low suspicion, dropped up very quickly and then dropped off again very quickly. So I consider that high suspicion at the time of more of an aberration than true suspicion if that makes sense.

Does that answer them?
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #957 on: January 27, 2014, 10:14:35 am »

It is interesting how both scott and AHoppy start to post suddenly after being called out for not posting today...

I actually had no problem with it.

Ahoppy was VLA. So no problem with it there.

scott was interesting. But given what he posted immediately after actually inversts it to a larger town read for me. It shows that he was reading about the thread and thinking about it because he very quickly asked a set of "hard" questions... something that PS... no one else had done except for Robz. So I actually think it has more to do with his personal style--and perhaps being new in general--than it has to do with alignment.
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #958 on: January 27, 2014, 10:22:29 am »

scott was interesting. But given what he posted immediately after actually inversts it to a larger town read for me. It shows that he was reading about the thread and thinking about it because he very quickly asked a set of "hard" questions... something that PS... no one else had done except for Robz. So I actually think it has more to do with his personal style--and perhaps being new in general--than it has to do with alignment.

Well, here I am thinking that people who read the thread and don't post are actually more scummy than people who don't read the thread.
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #959 on: January 27, 2014, 10:24:51 am »

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #960 on: January 27, 2014, 10:25:29 am »

I think it depends on the person. I'm generally more conscious of making sure I post as scum, and I can easily find myself with nothing to say as either alignment.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #961 on: January 27, 2014, 10:33:28 am »

Quick thoughts on every player:

PPS - makes sense a lot, and has been very controversial. Even he admits he is good at fooling me, but got to go with a strongish town read.

yuma - we have an interesting "disagree on almost everything" - situation going, for the first time that I can recall. Not sure what to make of it, but I'm actually leaning scummier. On the other hand the picture is likely to get clearer via yuma dying or getting investigated.

Robz - I rarely see him as towny, but he feels sincere here. Town read.

Ahoppy - I think was prosecuted very undeservedly yesterday, and I still kind of don't get it. It's been shown earlier his posting style is longer and less frequent posts, he has been staying true to that and actually making a fair bit of sense. His posting style is hard to read for me, though, as he talks a lot of theory and isn't a very emotional player.

scott_pilgrim: Newer guys are always harder to read as there is no precedent, but they often make several "town slips" that scum simply wouldn't do, and Scott hasn't done that. I'm sort of PoE'ing (process of elimination) myself to a scum read here, watching closely how the situation develops.

TA: Has this vendetta against me, which I don't think I've deserved so it could be scum locking in on an easy target (at the time I was a big lurker and it's easy to keep contributing by shouting the same thing over and over again). I'm usually good at reading TA / we almost always see eye to eye, so I think this situation makes it more likely for him to be scum.

chairs: I've got nothing. I'm notoriously bad at getting reads on chairs, somehow he never splashes the water enough for me to notice I guess? This is totally a me thing, but I just don't have any impressions here.

faust: Well, I lean towny for generally reading situations similarly to myself and making sense, but not too strongly as they haven't been stances mafia couldn't take.

Jimmm: Despite the high post count, I have very little recollection of what he has actually said. I vaguely recall coming against me pretty hard, which at the time was understandable I guess. Generally starting as a high poster and then fading away is a bit scummy, but Jimmm has always been sporadic. Hoping for more controversy for an easier read, buddy!

Archetype: I didn't like how little qualms he had about voting me (I think he said something like "I might look into this more, but might as well). Generally my scumreads have this in common: they don't seem puzzled or like they are solving things, they proclaim things as truths and hope wagons form. Analyzing and pondering is towny to me.


That's just a stream of conscious "what pops to my head when I think about that player" list, hope someone gets something out of it / my views are a little clearer to everyone now.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #962 on: January 27, 2014, 10:53:53 am »

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?

I think this presents 2 strong possibilities:

scum!AHoppy - Everybody but scum and a few diehards were on the wagon.

town!AHoppy - All of scum was on that wagon and damned near enough town were on it to get a mislynch.
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #963 on: January 27, 2014, 11:55:39 am »

scott was interesting. But given what he posted immediately after actually inversts it to a larger town read for me. It shows that he was reading about the thread and thinking about it because he very quickly asked a set of "hard" questions... something that PS... no one else had done except for Robz. So I actually think it has more to do with his personal style--and perhaps being new in general--than it has to do with alignment.

Well, here I am thinking that people who read the thread and don't post are actually more scummy than people who don't read the thread.

In general I agree. But I think that sort of person just says something like "well here are my reads on X" or "here is my pops quiz.. something, something, something" whereas scott instead posts a series of large thought out questions, as though he is reading and not posting because he is scum, but because he is trying to figure things out and determine what he wants to ask before he posts...

I just don't see the questions he asked me being the first thing he asks if he is scum. For me it is the kind of "newbie!town slip" that eevee mentioned just above. I guess eevee disagrees with me that this is just that as he has a scummy read on him, but like eevee said, we seem to be disagreeing on everything...
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #964 on: January 27, 2014, 02:18:13 pm »

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?

I think this presents 2 strong possibilities:

scum!AHoppy - Everybody but scum and a few diehards were on the wagon.

town!AHoppy - All of scum was on that wagon and damned near enough town were on it to get a mislynch.

AHoppy, since I presume that you would select the latter of the 2 possibilities if they were presented; who on your D1 wagon do you find scummy, and why?
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #965 on: January 27, 2014, 02:28:55 pm »

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?

I think this presents 2 strong possibilities:

scum!AHoppy - Everybody but scum and a few diehards were on the wagon.

town!AHoppy - All of scum was on that wagon and damned near enough town were on it to get a mislynch.

I asked myself the following:
If AHoppy were scum and scum were playing a bus for some distance who got off the wagon when it got too hot?

After some review I found only one answer: scott_pilgrim.

I am not really seeing a move to scumbus AHoppy because I would have expected to see more exodus as the vote count climbed. But, if there was a bus then scott_pilgrim was definitely the jumper.
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Archetype

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #966 on: January 27, 2014, 08:30:40 pm »

Unvote. Was a lurker, but he's been active today.

The way yuma backed off of the Robz lynch was scummy, and Robz is now back for D2 after being absent for the majority of D1 - a Town!Robz trait scum!Robz would be sure to duplicate. Honestly, I'd rather have a Cop investigate one or both of them. They are both strong Town players and it would be terrible if they were mislynched.

I'll Vote: scotty though. I think scum is more likely to hide in the background than be out in the spotlight, especially in a game like this. But he hasn't given any "Newbie Tells" like Eevee described, which is odd.

Despite my disagreement with a AHoppy lynch yesterday, I'm thinking more and more that he could be a good lynch.
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #967 on: January 27, 2014, 08:33:07 pm »

I'll Vote: scotty though. I think scum is more likely to hide in the background than be out in the spotlight, especially in a game like this. But he hasn't given any "Newbie Tells" like Eevee described, which is odd.

Despite my disagreement with a AHoppy lynch yesterday, I'm thinking more and more that he could be a good lynch.

Do you disagree that this is a newbie tell?
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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #968 on: January 27, 2014, 08:45:25 pm »

I'll Vote: scotty though. I think scum is more likely to hide in the background than be out in the spotlight, especially in a game like this. But he hasn't given any "Newbie Tells" like Eevee described, which is odd.

Despite my disagreement with a AHoppy lynch yesterday, I'm thinking more and more that he could be a good lynch.

Do you disagree that this is a newbie tell?
Yes. It could be just how scotty plays. Overall, it's a weak excuse to vote for someone but I won't have time to reread individual scum tells until later this weak.

I have some pretty high Townreads on Faust and PPS though.
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #969 on: January 27, 2014, 08:59:11 pm »

I'll Vote: scotty though. I think scum is more likely to hide in the background than be out in the spotlight, especially in a game like this. But he hasn't given any "Newbie Tells" like Eevee described, which is odd.

Despite my disagreement with a AHoppy lynch yesterday, I'm thinking more and more that he could be a good lynch.

Do you disagree that this is a newbie tell?

I agree with the people saying scotty is coming across strongly as newbie town. Archetype's is a very odd vote.
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #970 on: January 27, 2014, 09:03:04 pm »

Look at us agreeing on something....
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Robz888

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #971 on: January 27, 2014, 09:09:35 pm »

Yes indeed.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #972 on: January 27, 2014, 09:45:46 pm »

I reread the end of D1. AHoppy was at 6 votes + intent to hammer twice and still wasn't lynched. How does that even happen with town players?

I think this presents 2 strong possibilities:

scum!AHoppy - Everybody but scum and a few diehards were on the wagon.

town!AHoppy - All of scum was on that wagon and damned near enough town were on it to get a mislynch.

I asked myself the following:
If AHoppy were scum and scum were playing a bus for some distance who got off the wagon when it got too hot?

After some review I found only one answer: scott_pilgrim.

I am not really seeing a move to scumbus AHoppy because I would have expected to see more exodus as the vote count climbed. But, if there was a bus then scott_pilgrim was definitely the jumper.

I don't really think this says anything.  I mean, I guess I can see it from a scum perspective, but it also makes sense if I'm town.  At the time I was just thinking, it's either AHoppy or Teproc, I think Teproc is more likely to be scum, and whichever one of them I vote for will be at 5 votes, so I picked the one I thought had a better chance.

Yuma: I find your responses to my questions to be mostly satisfactory, so thank you for that.  :) (Which is not to say I think you're definitely town, but it helps clear up your perspective on everything.)

About me lurking: I agree that lurking is undesirable and can look scummy, I try to post more but sometimes just don't feel like trying to sort out my thoughts on everything.  When someone else points it out then I feel like "shoot now I have to post something".  The questions I posted last night were things I had been thinking about before, just didn't get around to posting, until someone pointed out that I hadn't posted yet so I felt like I should write up my thoughts and post it.
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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #973 on: January 28, 2014, 12:08:19 am »

Yeah, scotty moving to like strongest town read territory. That's just such a sincere self-summary. Really, really skilled if from first-time scum.
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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)
« Reply #974 on: January 28, 2014, 12:50:35 am »

I'm really sick of this "Oh scum show up when they get called out for posting" argument.  I think it's a load of BS.  It has happened to me in literally every single game I have played, and I have been town every time.  This time, it had to do with my VLA and checking F.DS before heading to bed and seeing yuma's post.  I had not read the thread yet, as I had said.  I think this argument is an easy cop-out and easy mis-direction for scum, so a little FOS on faust and Arch for pushing it, but not voting material.  You could say, they now have strikes in my book as well as I in theirs.

As for PPS: I'm going to go back and look at the people on my wagon and just give the first gut feelings I have because I was unexpectedly busy today and am now tired, but feel like I need to keep my promise of responding today.  I have now read all of D2 (or skimmed some of the longer stuff).  So here, about my wagon
Who was there:
Teproc, Robz, chairs, PPS, Jimmmmm

Teproc: town.  Duh.
Robz: Slightly scummy, but I really don't know how to read Robz.  When I've played with him I've always felt kinda intimidated by how intense he gets and just want to believe him because of that, and forget that I can't actually trust him.  And I'm seeing a little bit of that here, especially in the yuma fight.
chairs:  I really don't remember anything about chairs.  He's got one post today (post #2 I think) and I get absolutely nothing from it.  I remember getting a town vibe sometime yesterday sometime after I had voted for him, but I forget.  Slightly scummy just based off of absence and lack of doing much memorable.
PPS: I find you slightly towny because you seem quite reasonable, but at the same time controversial... and you have been helpful to move the days along... But I haven't ever played with you, so I can't say much about that...
Jimmmmm: I found slightly scummy for dropping off the map yesterday once theory talk ended, but he has made a lot of sense today and has defended himself well from yuma early on

So to answer your question: scummy - Robz and chairs.  But I really don't remember the circumstances in which they jumped on/off my wagon at times and I can't do an end of day re-read now.
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