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Author Topic: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (Mafia win flawlessly)  (Read 143565 times)

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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #175 on: January 11, 2014, 11:49:41 am »

It doesn't make sense to me to posit something within the first hours of the game and then demonize anyone who thinks it might be a bad idea.

Wait, are you talking about me?

No, I am willing to discuss the merits of your idea. faust is the one throwing votes on the guy who wants to discuss the merits of your idea. You seem complicit with this approach though...
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Jimmmmm

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #176 on: January 11, 2014, 12:00:02 pm »

It doesn't make sense to me to posit something within the first hours of the game and then demonize anyone who thinks it might be a bad idea.

Wait, are you talking about me?

No, I am willing to discuss the merits of your idea. faust is the one throwing votes on the guy who wants to discuss the merits of your idea. You seem complicit with this approach though...

Still demonise is a very strong word. I found both your posts difficult to understand and then didn't really agree with the reasons given, or at least my understanding of them.
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #177 on: January 11, 2014, 12:06:07 pm »

yeah... I am going to vote: faust for discouraging talking about the setup when this is obviously a setup where town is best benefited by at least discussing what we as a town want to do. It is either anti-town behavior or scum trying to curtail town's figuring out the best use of their PRs and information. It is probably the first, but could easily be the second.

If he didn't understand PPS's comment he should have asked for clarification, instead of voting. As for his vote on me... well I already said it was lame.
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AHoppy

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #178 on: January 11, 2014, 12:07:59 pm »

I don't think claiming when your night is is a good idea. Scum can easily say "Yeah I'm a N1 Doc" to get a free pass for the day. Plus if they Town claims, it seems like it would help scum decide who's a threat and who isn't. So I think we should just say whether we are a Doc or a Cop and that's it unless the Cop gets an investigation.
Ah never thought of that.  Good point.  So no claiming night unless you have an investigation result.

faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #179 on: January 11, 2014, 12:16:25 pm »

yeah... I am going to vote: faust for discouraging talking about the setup when this is obviously a setup where town is best benefited by at least discussing what we as a town want to do. It is either anti-town behavior or scum trying to curtail town's figuring out the best use of their PRs and information. It is probably the first, but could easily be the second.

If he didn't understand PPS's comment he should have asked for clarification, instead of voting. As for his vote on me... well I already said it was lame.

I do not discourage talking about the setup. What I do is make votes based on something instead of RVSing. Well, there's not much to base your vote on right now, so I have to evaluate what I have, and that is setup talk. PPS took a strong stance that was apparently not well thought trough, which is slightly scummy.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #180 on: January 11, 2014, 01:02:10 pm »

I thought it through. Maybe not thoroughly but I did think it through. Jimmmmm asked a decent question which I haven't exactly responded to and I will get to that in a second.

faust jumped right at it, more or less duplicated exactly what I was saying but painted what I was saying as being scummy. WTH?

Jimmmmm, I think your plan does imply that Fake Cops aren't part of the equation. You state that if all the Docs are toast then there is no need for them anyhow. Let's assume a scenario wherein we have 2 mislynches and 3 NKs that have depleted all of the doctor roles. The surviving players are split 2/6 mafia/town. A fake cop claim comes out and we mislynch someone. Well, now it's 2/5 and we are sure to lose someone at night putting us at 2/4 the next day. We zap the the obvious fake claimer going 1/4 and the NK puts us at 1/3. No we are lylo with dueling fake claim/real claim which I think is a situation we would like to avoid since it becomes a complete gamble on winning or losing all because we opted to make our Doctors sitting ducks at night.

I'm not saying it's a terrible idea but I am also thinking it through which faust would like you to believe I have not.

I would like to consider some plan that allows at least one Doctor to operate at night possibly giving us a real upper hand in the later days.
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Voltaire

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #181 on: January 11, 2014, 01:05:31 pm »

But mafia will kill cops, not doctors.
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nkirbit

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #182 on: January 11, 2014, 01:07:30 pm »

My first thought is that players under pressure shouldn't claim.  It gives scum info while not really making your lynch any more risky for town, since everyone is a pr. No need to give the info since its much, much worse if you don't get lynch, and won't really help you get lynch.

I think cops should claim all results immediately and doctors should never claim. We want to leave spent doctors as potential nk targets, otherwise scum will be able to narrow the pool of nk targets exclusively down to people who still have powers remaining.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #183 on: January 11, 2014, 01:08:44 pm »

But mafia will kill cops, not doctors.

Why, exactly? I guess I'm not seeing how obvious that is. If I were scum I would be primarily interested in picking off the Doctors to guarantee my ability to get a NK every night and to leverage fake claims for mislynches during the day much like I outlined.
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faust

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #184 on: January 11, 2014, 01:09:24 pm »

Jimmmmm, I think your plan does imply that Fake Cops aren't part of the equation. You state that if all the Docs are toast then there is no need for them anyhow. Let's assume a scenario wherein we have 2 mislynches and 3 NKs that have depleted all of the doctor roles. The surviving players are split 2/6 mafia/town. A fake cop claim comes out and we mislynch someone. Well, now it's 2/5 and we are sure to lose someone at night putting us at 2/4 the next day. We zap the the obvious fake claimer going 1/4 and the NK puts us at 1/3. No we are lylo with dueling fake claim/real claim which I think is a situation we would like to avoid since it becomes a complete gamble on winning or losing all because we opted to make our Doctors sitting ducks at night.

This scenario will never come to pass. Reasons:
- you assume only docs die until D3. That would mean that town lynches claimed docs twice, which is something we can prevent.
- in your scenario, we have no N1 or N2 cops, which is extremely unlikely.
- even if it comes to this, scum already had to fakeclaim. They will not all claim cop (likely). So a claimed doctor is still alive (and scum)

Above that, any scenario where we mislynch twice is naturally bound to be likely to take us to LYLO. That says nothing about the quality of the plan.

PPE 3
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #185 on: January 11, 2014, 01:10:25 pm »

I think cops should claim all results immediately and doctors should never claim. We want to leave spent doctors as potential nk targets, otherwise scum will be able to narrow the pool of nk targets exclusively down to people who still have powers remaining.

Bingo, this seems like a great plan for insuring the longevity of Town.
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Voltaire

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #186 on: January 11, 2014, 01:11:09 pm »

But mafia will kill cops, not doctors.

Why, exactly? I guess I'm not seeing how obvious that is. If I were scum I would be primarily interested in picking off the Doctors to guarantee my ability to get a NK every night and to leverage fake claims for mislynches during the day much like I outlined.

Every believed cop creates 2 ICs - or outs scum, and creates an IC. THAT is what mafia has to fight against. If they whiff on a NK, that's not nearly as bad.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #187 on: January 11, 2014, 01:18:02 pm »

This scenario will never come to pass. Reasons:
- you assume only docs die until D3. That would mean that town lynches claimed docs twice, which is something we can prevent.
It is patently obvious that I assume at least one successful Mafia lynch. That makes your statement false to start with. I do assume all the Doctors get depleted but I don't know how many there are. I had to contrive this scenario to account for the maximum possible number. You talk with ease about this as if you do know the setup as scum would.

Quote
- in your scenario, we have no N1 or N2 cops, which is extremely unlikely.

Incorrect again. I assume at least one successful lynch because in the event of an early cop result the obvious counter is a fake-claim and it is foolhardy to say "never" would we fall for the fake claim mislynch. Maybe it is 50/50 there but we should probably assume the worst for the sake of projecting a plan for winning. So, yeah we got duped into mislynching a cop and then killed our first bad guy the next day. I think my project does account for what you strongly say it does not.
- even if it comes to this, scum already had to fakeclaim. They will not all claim cop (likely). So a claimed doctor is still alive (and scum)

Quote
Above that, any scenario where we mislynch twice is naturally bound to be likely to take us to LYLO. That says nothing about the quality of the plan.

It says everything about the quality of the plan because scum can win with one standing player if there are no doctors at night as I have shown. Thus, they can literally sacrifice their other 2 players to get those 2 mislynches you agree place us at LYLO.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #188 on: January 11, 2014, 01:51:35 pm »

I think cops should claim all results immediately and doctors should never claim. We want to leave spent doctors as potential nk targets, otherwise scum will be able to narrow the pool of nk targets exclusively down to people who still have powers remaining.

Bingo, this seems like a great plan for insuring the longevity of Town.

I like this plan as well, unless someone comes up with something that convinces me otherwise.
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yuma

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #189 on: January 11, 2014, 01:53:53 pm »

I think cops should claim all results immediately and doctors should never claim. We want to leave spent doctors as potential nk targets, otherwise scum will be able to narrow the pool of nk targets exclusively down to people who still have powers remaining.

Bingo, this seems like a great plan for insuring the longevity of Town.

I like this plan as well, unless someone comes up with something that convinces me otherwise.

I think I like it as well...

PS: welcome scott_pilgrim! Not that you really need a welcome, you have been around the forums for quite a while, but welcome to forum mafia!

Have you played mafia before in any setting? Also if you don't mind saying, what is your timezone?
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #190 on: January 11, 2014, 02:34:35 pm »

I think cops should claim all results immediately and doctors should never claim. We want to leave spent doctors as potential nk targets, otherwise scum will be able to narrow the pool of nk targets exclusively down to people who still have powers remaining.

Bingo, this seems like a great plan for insuring the longevity of Town.

I like this plan as well, unless someone comes up with something that convinces me otherwise.

I think I like it as well...

PS: welcome scott_pilgrim! Not that you really need a welcome, you have been around the forums for quite a while, but welcome to forum mafia!

Have you played mafia before in any setting? Also if you don't mind saying, what is your timezone?

I've played mafia a few times IRL, but not online.  I would probably be quite lost without the Mafia Jargon thread.

I'm currently on PST (UTC-8:00), but I'll be going back to school in about a week after which point I will be on EST (UTC-5:00) for the next several months.

I'll most likely be gone for the rest of the day and possibly much of tomorrow, but I should be mostly free the rest of this week.
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Archetype

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #191 on: January 11, 2014, 04:38:29 pm »

But mafia will kill cops, not doctors.

Why, exactly? I guess I'm not seeing how obvious that is. If I were scum I would be primarily interested in picking off the Doctors to guarantee my ability to get a NK every night and to leverage fake claims for mislynches during the day much like I outlined.

Every believed cop creates 2 ICs - or outs scum, and creates an IC. THAT is what mafia has to fight against. If they whiff on a NK, that's not nearly as bad.
Exactly. A successful Copping takes out 1/3 of the Mafia. An unsuccessful Doctoring takes out only 1/10 of the Town. There's slight bonuses to both (Mafia potentially taking out a PR that would act that night and Town confirming one other player), but I'd certainly shoot claimed cops as Mafia.

I still think we should claim Doc/Cop. Claiming Night should be out of the picture for today for the reasons I should described, but claiming Doc/Cop should restrict the Mafia early game into fakeclaiming and gives us a rough idea as to where the chips fall in terms of how many of each PR.
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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #192 on: January 11, 2014, 04:39:53 pm »

Vote: nkirbit
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nkirbit

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #193 on: January 11, 2014, 04:42:13 pm »

here's what we're going to see if we massclaim doctor/cop:  a 6/6 split.  And we learn nothing.

Mafia learns:  A list of which PR each player is.

Don't like it.  At all.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #194 on: January 11, 2014, 06:05:44 pm »

I agree that we should not massclaim. Towns main powers are our cops, not our doctors. The benefit of a successful copping is better than a successful doctoring, while an "unsuccessful" copping is also much better than an unsuccessful doctoring.

Doctors should never claim, unless in the possibility that there's a missing night kill and we can maybe deduce who that is (scum no-killing doesn't seem like much of a possibility in a setup with potential d4 and d5 cops). Cops should claim results as well, although maybe not immediately (jimmm in chocolate factory is a very good example as to why not claiming immediately can be good).

So far, townier reads on nkirbit and especially Faust. Yuma is also speaking a lot of sense, although I think he'd be speaking sense as scum as well, so it's hard to get any read on him so far. No one else has stuck out to me.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #195 on: January 11, 2014, 06:53:21 pm »

So far, townier reads on nkirbit and especially Faust. Yuma is also speaking a lot of sense, although I think he'd be speaking sense as scum as well, so it's hard to get any read on him so far. No one else has stuck out to me.

Wait, what? As far as I can tell faust is in the massclaim camp with Jimmmmm.

I don't like how Jimmmmm setup this crappy idea and then when I questioned it faust voted me for it and then made even crappier arguments against me more or less proving it was a crappy idea to begin with and then he just ignored defending his position. What, exactly, are you finding towny about faust?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #196 on: January 11, 2014, 07:13:46 pm »

I have gotten a towny feel from his posts. It's early but I basically every single post has read town to me. This can obviously change over time but right now he's my strongest read.

Are you implying that you believe Faust and jimm set up a trap pregame? That seems like a ludicrous claim but I don't really see any other way to read it.

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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #197 on: January 11, 2014, 07:14:47 pm »

Also, someone being wrong on theory doesn't mean they are scummy. Wow do you think Faust being in the massclaim camp makes him scummy?
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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #198 on: January 11, 2014, 09:38:31 pm »

Very quick catch up from the aftermath of a wonderful wedding:

-towny read on PPS, even though I don't agree with him
-townier read on faust
-welcome, scott!

what would we gain from claiming anything at all? serious question here, is it really helpful at all to get a rough idea of our pr split? to me it seems cops are so much more powerful, the main function of the docs is to get night killed. I'm in the "cops with results claim, others stay quiet" camp.
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pingpongsam

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Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D1)
« Reply #199 on: January 11, 2014, 10:55:28 pm »

Also, someone being wrong on theory doesn't mean they are scummy. Wow do you think Faust being in the massclaim camp makes him scummy?

Nah, I'm not jumping to such extremes. Scummy/Towny/Null at this point is about feel and perception not about deduction. I'm not feeling the town vibe from faust but me and him tend to clash anyhow. The Jimmmmm/faust interaction with me did feel scummy but I'm not claiming a pair out of the gate or anything, that is, as you say, ludicrous. If anything I was implying that faust was being opportunistic whereas Jimmmmm's part seemed far more genuine.

No, my incredulity at you was based on the assumption that you were finding nkirbit Towny for the same reason as I, a sensible plan that doesn't involve showing scum all the cards. faust seems diametrically opposed to such an approach.
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