Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[cayvie]

super-early postcounts!

Robz888: 26
Axxle: 18
cayvie: 13
yuma: 12
Eevee: 8
Captain_Frisk: 7
raerae: 7
Jimmmmm: 5
Cuzz: 4
theorel: 3
Lekkit: 3
Watno: 2
Abra655: 2

theorel has the least lurky 3 posts ever

[theorel]

Robz is taking heat early, which is pretty normal for Robz.  I intended to unvote him earlier, but apparently forgot, anyways I'll unvote now since I'm not really comfortable with my vote there.

As far as the set-up error goes, my guess is that they made a mistake in some step of the randomization (like leaving scum players in the pool when determining power roles for instance, swapping roles around the number ranges, or messing up the ranges).  We don't know what the error was, but based on the conversation it COULD have resulted in an invalid C9++ set-up, but didn't.  This suggests to me that the power role randomization was a bit off.  What we know is that the end result is a valid C9++ set-up.  So, I personally am going to assume that probability-based analysis on role existence has the potential to be flawed due to the error, unless I am told otherwise.  So I will not argue: "he claimed doctor, but there's only a 5% chance of doctor given other information so I'm doubting the claim".  Only binary, i.e. "there cannot be 2 1-shot vigs, so the person claiming 1-shot vig after a 1-shot vig has already died is obviously lying and needs to be lynched".

Now other stuff:
@Frisk: I think the only simulations we've run were by me in VIII about the 2-shot vig.  And so in a uniform-random decision-making town the 2-shot vig improved win-% by about 10% (if I remember).  1-shot vig reduced win-% by about 10% I think also (this was the result of changing the parity).  SO, a 1-shot vig should only shoot if we have other parity changes (from i.e. a doctor or SK or nolynch).  I think this is one of those situations where Robz disagrees in the same fashion as Galzria did.  1 more town player helps town if it changes the parity to odd, but doesn't if it changes the parity to even.  Therefore I would rather have 1 extra town-directed kill than have 1 extra town player hanging around day2.  This is a difference of opinion, and I recognize that though, ultimately the vig needs to decide where they stand on it.

I'm going to Vote: Axxle because I find his behavior thus far somewhat suspicious.  He seems to be trying to generate suspicions and inflame arguments.

[theorel]

Also, since there are votes flying everywhere:

Unofficial Vote Count
Robz (3): watno, Axxle, Frisk
Theorel (1): Robz
Yuma (1): Cuzz
Cuzz (1): Yuma
Eevee (1): Cayvie
Axxle (1): Theorel

[Abra655]

I like a voter for robz, but thats just because no one will vote for him in another game, Right now I'm getting absolute null reads from everyone, I've got a crazy day but I'll try to do an in depth reread and post some actual opinions tomorrow.

[Cuzz]

I actually agree with Frisk's reasoning on Robz below:

I would prefer NOT to restart, just because it's annoying, and I'm already formulating some reads, man.

Vote: RobZ. I think (someone can probably find a quote) that he prefers playing scum.

I sort of noticed this and thought maybe that bringing it up was outside the spirit of the game but it's stupid not to use the information we have.

Robz's congratulatory response seems a bit like the scummy kind of buddying too, and mostly unlike his town response to votes.

Vote: Robz

[Jimmmmm]

Here's a theory: Robz is a Serial Killer.

He comes straight out of the blocks saying "Don't vig!", knowing of course that there will be at least one extra night-kill each night, and then he can act indignant each morning because some Vigilante isn't toeing the line. "Why do you keep killing our Townies?" he demands. "I told you not to vig!" Meanwhile he looks very Town because he warned us all that this was going to happen, but someone didn't listen.

Having said that, I actually think he's probably Town, although I don't have any stronger reads so he's still my number 1 suspect.

[Jimmmmm]

I'm going to Vote: Axxle because I find his behavior thus far somewhat suspicious.  He seems to be trying to generate suspicions and inflame arguments.

What are you talking about in particular?

[theorel]

Rereading I'm less sure, but it felt like he was trying to provoke fights with his votes here and here. 

Then combined with this post,

Robz explicitly mentions "cop or doctor" twice, once in the context of them being powerful roles that newbies should have, and again in the context that the vig might hit them.  Why didn't you vote him for that?  Those and your post make it much more likely to generate doc discussion than Eevee's post.

On reread, it seems like he may have just been terse, and then I read that post being already mildly suspicious which warped my reading of it.

[theorel]

Rereading my own post, I was unclear: to clarify it felt like he was trying to provoke other players into fighting amongst themselves, not provoking them to fight with him.

His votes were in response to votes on other players (on the voter), which makes it seem like he's trying to encourage the votee to OMGUS.  Reading the post I quoted from that perspective, it felt like he was trying to get cayvie to fight with Robz also...but as I said rereading with a different mindset (i.e. looking for proof) significantly weakens that feeling...making me believe it had more to do with bias than anything else.

[Watno]

I think trying to provoke fights is a good thing. People fighting are way more likely to say something they shouldn't have said as scum.

@Mods: Can you clarify wether the proabilities of outcomes of the role distribution were affected by the mistake?

[Voltgloss]

My strong recommendations, as an outsider with knowledge of the setup (and as a mod who ran C9++ before), are:

1.  for all players to proceed based on the gamestate being a valid C9++ setup - which it is;

2.  for players to NOT try to take the "issue" into account when conducting analysis;

3.  for players to NOT try to get more information from the mods about the "issue"; and

4.  for the mods to NOT divulge any further information about the "issue" until after the game is complete.

The game should not be about the "issue."  The game should be about the game itself.  The mods have confirmed that (1) the gamestate is a valid C9++ setup; and (2) no players' alignments have changed since gamestart.  In my view, nothing further needs to be said, nor should be said, on the matter. 

[Robz888]

Here's a theory: Robz is a Serial Killer.

He comes straight out of the blocks saying "Don't vig!", knowing of course that there will be at least one extra night-kill each night, and then he can act indignant each morning because some Vigilante isn't toeing the line. "Why do you keep killing our Townies?" he demands. "I told you not to vig!" Meanwhile he looks very Town because he warned us all that this was going to happen, but someone didn't listen.

Having said that, I actually think he's probably Town, although I don't have any stronger reads so he's still my number 1 suspect.

Well, here goes some more buddying, but that's a genius suggestion. Seriously impressive. Not the case though, sadly.

[Jorbles]

@Mods: Can you clarify wether the proabilities of outcomes of the role distribution were affected by the mistake?

The mods have confirmed that (1) the gamestate is a valid C9++ setup; and (2) no players' alignments have changed since gamestart.  In my view, nothing further needs to be said, nor should be said, on the matter. 

[ashersky]

@Mods: Can you clarify wether the proabilities of outcomes of the role distribution were affected by the mistake?

The mods have confirmed that (1) the gamestate is a valid C9++ setup; and (2) no players' alignments have changed since gamestart.  In my view, nothing further needs to be said, nor should be said, on the matter. 

Official, final word on the matter, is the quote from Voltgloss.  Emphasis on the word "valid" in that quote.  This game, regardless of the error, is a valid, normal C9++ game.  Just play it and have fun!

[ashersky]

Galzria has subbed in for Watno.

Thank you.

[Jimmmmm]

Here's a theory: Robz is a Serial Killer.

He comes straight out of the blocks saying "Don't vig!", knowing of course that there will be at least one extra night-kill each night, and then he can act indignant each morning because some Vigilante isn't toeing the line. "Why do you keep killing our Townies?" he demands. "I told you not to vig!" Meanwhile he looks very Town because he warned us all that this was going to happen, but someone didn't listen.

Having said that, I actually think he's probably Town, although I don't have any stronger reads so he's still my number 1 suspect.

Well, here goes some more buddying, but that's a genius suggestion. Seriously impressive. Not the case though, sadly.

I feel very buddied.

[Watno]

I wanna apologize for leaving you again so soon, but I didn't properly think before replacing in and missed the fact that my availability would be severly limited during the later game days due to Christmas and stuff.

(I hope you are okay with me posting this, ashersky)

[Robz888]

Galzria! Get in here and explain--better than I did--why the Vigilantes should just not shoot please.

[Axxle]

Galzria! Get in here and explain--better than I did--why the Vigilantes should just not shoot please.

Burninating the countryside: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=23110

[Axxle]

Galzria! Get in here and explain--better than I did--why the Vigilantes should just not shoot please.

Burninating the countryside: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=23110

^ proof vigs can do well.

[Axxle]

Galzria! Get in here and explain--better than I did--why the Vigilantes should just not shoot please.

Burninating the countryside: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=23110

^ proof vigs can do well.

Also, gloating.

[Jimmmmm]

Galzria has subbed in for Watno.

Thank you.

Wat? No!


See what I did there?

[Axxle]

Galzria has subbed in for Watno.

Thank you.

Wat? No!


See what I did there?

Ji? Mmmmm!

... Doesn't work as well...

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.3

theorel (1): Robz888
Robz888 (4): Watno, Captain_Frisk, Axxle, Cuzz {L-3}
Cuzz (1): yuma
Eevee (1): cayvie
Axxle (1): theorel

Not Voting (5): Abra655, Eevee, Jimmmmm, Lekkit, raerae

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on Thursday, December 20, at 4:30 p.m. forum time.

[Robz888]

Woah there.