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[Jimmmmm]

If I were a Vig I want not shoot.

Are you talking ever, or just night 1? I know you wouldn't shoot night 1. Other than to save yourself, under what conditions would you shoot?

[ashersky]

As a Buffy fan I recall a lot of this episode and will probably re-watch it if i can get my netflix to work tonight, should we try and emmulate the episode like should we figure out who we are/can we ask for specific flavor information from the mod it seams that flavor will be especially essential to this game

I want to clarify that the flavor of this game is based on the particular episode, but nothing else.  Watching the episode (while a great way to spend an hour), will not give you any advantage or information for use in this game, other than a point of reference for the flavor I make up in my posts.

[Robz888]

If I were a Vig I want not shoot.

Are you talking ever, or just night 1? I know you wouldn't shoot night 1. Other than to save yourself, under what conditions would you shoot?

Well, there are situations where a Vig might have to shoot in some hope of saving the game from a loss. I would also shoot, you know, if we had like a comfortable lead and I was extremely confident and we were heading in to the end stretch. But I would rather do it with town input. The town's collective reads are typically better than my own.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, here's I think a related question (mostly) for Robz. What do you think of No-lynching?

[Robz888]

Okay, here's I think a related question (mostly) for Robz. What do you think of No-lynching?

For Day 1, most likely against, given this setup. I would listen to a counter-argument, but it seems to be that No Lynch deprives us of necessary information. Also, having an even number of players is undesirable.

[Eevee]

Hmm, stupid and stubborn town mistakes have historically been a great way to become obvtown.. I wonder if Robz is scum and banking on that.

Note, I'm not saying I know if a vig should shoot early or not. I'm saying two obviously savvy players are arguing opposite viewpoints, so it seems to me it cant really be as clear cut as Robz is making it seem. He isnt even offering any good arguments at all ("vigs have always shot town this far!" is not a good argument), he is just insisting he is right and that town should listen to him. I know robz says he isnt good in theory or theory talk, but I don't like his approach here.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, here's I think a related question (mostly) for Robz. What do you think of No-lynching?

For Day 1, most likely against, given this setup. I would listen to a counter-argument, but it seems to be that No Lynch deprives us of necessary information. Also, having an even number of players is undesirable.

What I mean is, are you against Vigging because more semi-random killing is bad for Town, or do you think that Vigging is more likely to hit Town than voting is?

[Lekkit]

It should be more random. A lynch is the decision of the majority of the players. A vig shot is the decision of one player.

[theorel]

I disagree with everything theorel just said.

He may be right on the statistics of vig shots, but we have real history to go off, too. And in real history, vig's have been disastrous for town. Yuma shot the town's IC before the IC came forward in M-VIII, changing a likely town win into a scum win. Morgrim's shot sabotaged a likely town victory in M-IX, delivering the game to the Serial Killer. In M-XII, ashersky's shot did the maximum amount of damage, by shooting the person that the town Hider was hiding behind, killing them both.

So, no, I will stand firm here, and insist that town Vigs absolutely do NOT fire on Night 1. I don't want them firing at all without town input. Vigs are for the endgame, when we are more informed and possibly need to take lucky shots to win. Do not fire now. Can people back me up here?

He is also wrong about the mafia deciding whether or not to kill raerae. Either the scum will decide they would rather take a shot at possibly more dangerous PRs, and not shoot her, or they will want to take out the IC, and they will shoot her. I think it will have very little to do with who she is. Also, I'm much more confident in my ability to read newbies--who haven't learned how to fool me yet--than my ability to read the experts.

Vote:theorel for uncharacteristically bad analysis.

Couple errors: in XII, ashersky shot cayvie.  Eevee hid behind ashersky.  So, scum got the hider kill there, ash just shot a VT.  If ash had not shot, we would have had an even number of players, had the same number of days to lose.  We would have had cayvie's analysis, which probably would have helped, but we would have needed an extra vote to lynch.  Of all the things that could be cited for losing us that game, ashersky's shot is not one of them.

yuma's NK in VIII was a mistake, but I hashed out reasons for it there.  Actually, I think he should have shot after the no-lynch day1, probably to kill Lekkit or Insomniac for useful information moving into day2.  (i.e. shooting earlier would have been better here)

I didn't follow IX, but Morgrim should never be in charge of a kill based on his reads

Also, in IX and VIII vig shot LATE.  So arguing that early vig is bad because it really hurt the games where he shot late is faulty.  And in XII, the vig managed to maintain parity, which I maintain actually could have helped us.

Here's the thing though, and it really is all that matters (IMO):  (Note: this only applies to fulltime vig, one-shot vig is a totally different case)
If a vig shoots night 1 and 2, and town lynches both days, we get 4 kills out of 6 that might hit scum.  If vig refrains from shooting then by day4 we've had 3 of 6 kills that might hit scum.
So, by shooting the vig trades 1 lynch for 2 vig-kills.  This means that unless the vig is less than half as likely to hit scum as the lynch, he should shoot.  I know day1 lynch (like the vig shot according to Axxle) is less likely than random to hit scum.  But I'm not sure how day2/3 lynches are.  Since shooting trades the day3 lynch for 2 NKs, those are the percentages to compare.  If vig is in fact less than half as likely to hit scum, then I'd agree that he shouldn't shoot.  Were I the vig, I would definitely shoot.

Sorry Robz, you've admitted to being worse at theory than me before.  Saying my analysis is bad just because you disagree with it doesn't really hold water.

[Cuzz]

Back from V/LA, and need to catch up on this game, but a few things I can respond to now:

Robz, Cuzz and Frisk:

This game is awfully similar to MXII which didn't go very well for town. I viewed it from a mod's point of view. But what do you think went so wrong in that game. My two take aways from it were, lynch scummy lurkers and scum bussing can be very beneficial. But what do you think down did or didn't do that was detrimental to town--and that we shouldn't do in this game?

At least no one claimed VT in the pre-game.

Several things went wrong in that game. We had 4 dead townies by the beginning of D2, which was fabulously unlucky. I doctored two people at night who died anyway. The massclaim helped scum far more than town by directing all night actions. I was certain joth was scum. Frisk was certain Grujah was town. Robz was certain I was scum and Insomniac was town. We failed to lynch lurkers. I would have been more useful to town dead than alive so I maybe should have self-voted even though I hate that. And, of course, when scum wins, all anyone can talk about is who screwed up and how town lost the game, but scum (especially Insomniac) played very well.

Anyway, main takeaway for me is the massclaim. This setup is so similar to MXII and the massclaim was objectively awful for town there. Theory talk is ok here, especially in terms of figuring out whether or not there's a serial killer, but we have to be very careful of "oh if only so and so would claim, then we'd know this part of the setup!" type talk. That way lies madness.

On another topic, I don't like Robz's comment about raerae being IC. I kinda see his point, but saying so out loud accomplishes nothing pro-town and only serves to make a new player feel bad. Though fortunately it looks like she understands it's not personal.

Wrt Vig shooting, I'd say shoot on a strong scum read, and hold off otherwise. Be very wary of taking direction from someone you don't have a town read on.

[Robz888]

@Theorel

On XII: Okay, you're right about who killed who. I still say it was majorly bad for town. Having fewer town-aligned players alive is never good for town.

On VIII and IX: Sure, shooting earlier would have been better than shooting the IC late in the game in VIII. But this exactly underscores my point: The Vigilantes have historically been terrible at making judgment calls; so bad, I would rather just neutralize them by having them do nothing--unless specifically instructed otherwise by the town.

[Robz888]

Hmm, stupid and stubborn town mistakes have historically been a great way to become obvtown.. I wonder if Robz is scum and banking on that.

Note, I'm not saying I know if a vig should shoot early or not. I'm saying two obviously savvy players are arguing opposite viewpoints, so it seems to me it cant really be as clear cut as Robz is making it seem. He isnt even offering any good arguments at all ("vigs have always shot town this far!" is not a good argument), he is just insisting he is right and that town should listen to him. I know robz says he isnt good in theory or theory talk, but I don't like his approach here.

Because the antics of a vigilante have damaged the town a few too many times by now for me to sit back and say, "Whatever, use your best judgment!" Your best judgment probably sucks, and we know this by now.

[Jimmmmm]

Robz, I'd like to hear your response to the argument that Vigging increases the density of kills that "could" be scum.

[Robz888]

Robz, I'd like to hear your response to the argument that Vigging increases the density of kills that "could" be scum.

It does do that. But moreso, it increases the number of kills that will land on town... and possibly on important power roles like the Cop or Doctor.

[Watno]

I agree with Eevee here. The vigs-should-shoot-as-often-as-possible philosophy isn't new, and I remember it being discussed before. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with it, but it makes no sense to vote someone for a different opinion on that matter, since it is unlikely to be related to his alignment. I think its well possible that Robz is trying to make use of people thinking that scum wouldn't start off the game by expressing a controversial opinion on a meta-matter (I think Eevee was obvtown because of something similar in some ZM, and no robz might be trying to emulate it).
So vote: Robz until there's something better.

[Robz888]

I agree with Eevee here. The vigs-should-shoot-as-often-as-possible philosophy isn't new, and I remember it being discussed before. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with it, but it makes no sense to vote someone for a different opinion on that matter, since it is unlikely to be related to his alignment. I think its well possible that Robz is trying to make use of people thinking that scum wouldn't start off the game by expressing a controversial opinion on a meta-matter (I think Eevee was obvtown because of something similar in some ZM, and no robz might be trying to emulate it).
So vote: Robz until there's something better.

It's not a controversial opinion. I didn't think it was, at least. My understanding was that everyone who had actually played with a vigilante pretty much agreed that they should just stop shooting. But maybe it was just me and Frisk (who unfortunately isn't here).

[raerae]

There are stats on mafiascum saying that the vig targets with less acurracy than random.  That said it depends on the player and his/her reads.  And why are you guys assuming a vig anyway?

Has anybody addressed this yet/can somebody?  It seems like we just have a lot of talky talk back and forth about vigs with no compromise in sight and no real reason why we haven't moved on to something more substantial.

Also, I have thoughts and words on me being the IC and the views on that but I'm on my phone and this screen and keyboard are too small for me to function so I'll write those up later.

[Robz888]

I agree that there's probably zero reason to keep discussing this. Except that IF there is a Vig, I don't want him to shoot tonight. But, fine.

[Lekkit]

What do you suggest we discuss? It's not really my speciality to keep a conversation going. Especially not when there's hardly anything to look at.

[Axxle]

Vote:theorel for uncharacteristically bad analysis.

Vote: Robz for uncharacteristically bad voting.

[Jorbles]

It has come to my attention that there was a small error in the implementation of the C9++ setup. I am discussing with ashersky what, if anything, should be done to rectify the error, and ashersky will make an announcement when we've resolved it. I don't think it's gamebreaking, but it might confuse late-game role analysis if players are left unaware of it.

[Robz888]

It has come to my attention that there was a small error in the implementation of the C9++ setup. I am discussing with ashersky what, if anything, should be done to rectify the error, and ashersky will make an announcement when we've resolved it. I don't think it's gamebreaking, but it might confuse late-game role analysis if players are left unaware of it.

Oh.

Are you sure it's not game-breaking? I'm not saying we should restart the game, but please consider telling us the exact mistake.

Please also talk to Voltgloss about this, who has experience running this setup.

[cayvie]

It has come to my attention that there was a small error in the implementation of the C9++ setup. I am discussing with ashersky what, if anything, should be done to rectify the error, and ashersky will make an announcement when we've resolved it. I don't think it's gamebreaking, but it might confuse late-game role analysis if players are left unaware of it.

Oh.

Are you sure it's not game-breaking? I'm not saying we should restart the game, but please consider telling us the exact mistake.

Please also talk to Voltgloss about this, who has experience running this setup.

agreed, i would not be opposed to a complete restart, if the setup turns out to be unsolveable (as in, not a valid c9++ setup)

hi dawn

[Jorbles]

It has come to my attention that there was a small error in the implementation of the C9++ setup. I am discussing with ashersky what, if anything, should be done to rectify the error, and ashersky will make an announcement when we've resolved it. I don't think it's gamebreaking, but it might confuse late-game role analysis if players are left unaware of it.

Oh.

Are you sure it's not game-breaking? I'm not saying we should restart the game, but please consider telling us the exact mistake.

Please also talk to Voltgloss about this, who has experience running this setup.

I do not believe it's gamebreaking, but ashersky will have to make the final decision. I'm bringing Volt in on the conversation to advise also.

[Axxle]

The game has not been going on for very long, I wouldn't be opposed to a game restart if a C9++ setup isn't viable and you can't tell us what the mistake was.