In addition, a comparision between lynching the spirit immediately and along the way:
With restless spirit directly
- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit ==> LyLo
With restless spirit later
- D1: 12 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D2: 10 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Misslynch+NK
- D3: 08 Players, 3 Scum, 0 Spirit -> Spirit-lynch+NK
- D4: 06 Players, 3 Scum, 1 Spirit ==> LyLo
On the first glance, those two scenarios look quite similar. Though one has to look at the odds of correct lynches to see the decisive difference.
- D1: 3/12 = 25%
- D2: 3/10 = 30%
- D3: 3/08 = 37.5%
When lynching the restless spirit D1, town sacrifices a 25% chance of hitting scum that day. When lynching later, those chances (and thereby the sacrifice) increases massively.
Therefore an early lynch of the restless spirit is preferable to a later lynch of the restless spirit.